Daily Papers

To understand and identify the unprecedented risks posed by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI) models, this report presents a comprehensive assessment of their frontier risks. Drawing on the E-T-C analysis (deployment environment, threat source, enabling capability) from the Frontier AI Risk Management Framework (v1.0) (SafeWork-F1-Framework), we identify critical risks in seven areas: cyber offense, biological and chemical risks, persuasion and manipulation, uncontrolled autonomous AI R\&D, strategic deception and scheming, self-replication, and collusion. Guided by the "AI-45^circ Law," we evaluate these risks using "red lines" (intolerable thresholds) and "yellow lines" (early warning indicators) to define risk zones: green (manageable risk for routine deployment and continuous monitoring), yellow (requiring strengthened mitigations and controlled deployment), and red (necessitating suspension of development and/or deployment). Experimental results show that all recent frontier AI models reside in green and yellow zones, without crossing red lines. Specifically, no evaluated models cross the yellow line for cyber offense or uncontrolled AI R\&D risks. For self-replication, and strategic deception and scheming, most models remain in the green zone, except for certain reasoning models in the yellow zone. In persuasion and manipulation, most models are in the yellow zone due to their effective influence on humans. For biological and chemical risks, we are unable to rule out the possibility of most models residing in the yellow zone, although detailed threat modeling and in-depth assessment are required to make further claims. This work reflects our current understanding of AI frontier risks and urges collective action to mitigate these challenges.

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the DESI DR2 cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck CMB observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and non-parametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the w_0w_aCDM key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by non-parametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian Processes, we find that extending LambdaCDM to include a two-parameter w(z) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying w geq -1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (z lesssim 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

We present the first joint analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum using the Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), focusing on Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and quasars (QSOs) across a redshift range of 0.4leq zleq2.1. By combining the two- and three-point statistics, we are able to partially break the degeneracy between the logarithmic growth rate, f(z), and the amplitude of dark matter fluctuations, σ_s8(z), which cannot be measured separately in analyses that only involve the power spectrum. In comparison with the (fiducial) Planck ΛCDM cosmology we obtain f/f^fid={0.888_{-0.089}^{+0.186},0.977_{-0.220}^{+0.182},1.030_{-0.085}^{+0.368}}, σ_{s8}/σ^fid_s8={1.224_{-0.133}^{+0.091},1.071_{-0.163}^{+0.278},1.000_{-0.223}^{+0.088}} respectively for the three LRG redshift bins, corresponding to a cumulative 10.1\% constraint on f, and of 8.4\% on σ_s8, including the systematic error budget. The cumulative constraints for the ShapeFit compressed parameters from our joint power spectrum-bispectrum analysis are respectively σ_{α_iso}=0.9% (9\% improvement with respect to our power spectrum-only analysis); σ_{α_AP}=2.3% (no improvement with respect to power spectrum-only analysis, which is expected given that the bispectrum monopole has no significant anisotropic signal); σ_{fσ_s8}=5.1% (9\% improvement); σ_{m+n}=2.3% (11\% improvement). These results are fully consistent with the main DESI power spectrum analysis, demonstrating the robustness of the DESI cosmological constraints, and compatible with Planck ΛCDM cosmology.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

We present a spectroscopic analysis of two star-forming galaxies at z~5 observed with JWST/NIRSpec as part of the Early eXtragalactic Continuum and Emission Line Science (EXCELS) survey. The detection of the C III]lambdalambda1906,09, [O II]lambdalambda3726,29, [O III]lambdalambda4363,5007, and [N II]lambda6584 nebular emission lines enables investigation of the C/O, N/O, and C/N abundance ratios using the temperature-sensitive method. The two galaxies have stellar masses of log(M_{star}/M_{odot} ) = 8.13pm0.09 and log(M_{star}/M_{odot} )=8.52pm0.13 and corresponding metallicities of Z~0.2Z_{odot} and Z~0.3Z_{odot}. These metallicities are somewhat higher than is typical for other z>5 galaxies with similar stellar mass and are in fact comparable to high-redshift analogue galaxies at z~0. Both galaxies display evidence for N/O enhancement with respect to the z~0 sample, with log(N/O)=-1.07pm0.17 and log(N/O)=-0.86pm0.15 respectively. In contrast, we find low C abundances, with log(C/O)=-0.82pm0.22 and log(C/O)=-1.02pm0.22, consistent with the predicted yields of core-collapse supernovae. Following the trend observed in other high-redshift sources, we find that the C/N ratios are lower at fixed O/H compared to the majority of local galaxies. In contrast to the top-heavy IMF invoked in some studies to explain low C/N ratios in metal-poor galaxies, we find, via comparison to chemical evolution models, that a standard or bottom-heavy IMF better explains the observed abundance ratios in more enriched systems due to an increase in N-enrichment from intermediate mass (4-7M_{odot}) stars. Our results demonstrate that robust measurements of CNO abundances with JWST can reveal unique enrichment pathways in galaxies as a function of both metallicity and redshift.

Westerlund 1 (Wd1) is one of the Milky Way's most massive young clusters, in which heavy extinction and field contamination have historically hampered its kinematic characterization. We aim to assess Wd1's internal kinematics, dynamical state, and formation scenario. Using a robust 5D clustering approach, we identified 559 bona fide members. We modeled their proper motions via a 2D first-order Taylor expansion to derive the velocity gradient tensor, mapping expansion, rotation, and shear. Restricting the kinematic analysis to 524 stars with proper motion uncertainties <0.5~mas,yr^{-1}, we find at least 103 gravitationally unbound members, including 14 walkaway stars. The 2D analysis reveals a statistically significant divergence (>4σ) highlighting preferred expansion along the Galactic latitude (position angle 164^circpm10.1^circ). A detected cross-gradient (partial v_b / partial l = -0.41 pm 0.08 km s^{-1} pc^{-1}) provides a clear signature of shear on the plane of the sky. Wd1 does not behave as a single cohesive population, but comprises two decoupled subsystems: a stable, bound core in dynamical equilibrium and an escaping, unbound envelope. This prominent anisotropic expansion perpendicular to the Galactic plane has a kinematic timescale (Δt_{kin} = 2.08 pm 0.44 Myr) matching the independent orbital mid-plane crossing time (Δt_{orbit} = 2.10 pm 0.05 Myr). This temporal alignment indicates the expansion onset coincided with Wd1's Galactic disk passage, triggered either by internal dynamics (e.g., early supernova feedback) or external tidal perturbations. Finally, the robust unbound population demonstrates that active cluster dissolution is underway, driven by discrete dynamical ejection events rather than long-term stellar evaporation.

Spectro-astrometry is used to investigate the low velocity component (LVC) of the optical forbidden emission from the T Tauri stars RU Lupi and AS 205 N. Both stars also have high velocity forbidden emission (HVC) which is tracing a jet. For AS 205 N, analysis reveals a complicated outflow system. For RU Lupi, the [O I] 6300 and [S II] 6716, 6731 LV narrow component (NC) is offset along the same position angle (PA) as the HVC but with a different velocity gradient than the jet, in that displacement from the stellar position along the rotation axis is decreasing with increasing velocity. From the LVC NC PA and velocity gradient, it is inferred that the NC is tracing a wide angled MHD disk wind. A photoevaporative wind is ruled out. This is supported by a comparison with a previous spectro-astrometric study of the CO fundamental line. The decrease in offset with increasing velocity is interpreted as tracing an increase in the height of the wind with increasing disk radius. This is one of the first measurements of the spatial extent of the forbidden emission line LVC NC (~ 40 au, 8 au for RU~Lupi in the [S II] 6731 and [O I] 6300 lines) and the first direct confirmation that the LVC narrow component can trace an MHD disk wind.

The Superpressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT) is a diffraction-limited, wide-field, 0.5 m, near-infrared to near-ultraviolet observatory designed to exploit the stratosphere's space-like conditions. SuperBIT's 2023 science flight will deliver deep, blue imaging of galaxy clusters for gravitational lensing analysis. In preparation, we have developed a weak lensing measurement pipeline with modern algorithms for PSF characterization, shape measurement, and shear calibration. We validate our pipeline and forecast SuperBIT survey properties with simulated galaxy cluster observations in SuperBIT's near-UV and blue bandpasses. We predict imaging depth, galaxy number (source) density, and redshift distribution for observations in SuperBIT's three bluest filters; the effect of lensing sample selections is also considered. We find that in three hours of on-sky integration, SuperBIT can attain a depth of b = 26 mag and a total source density exceeding 40 galaxies per square arcminute. Even with the application of lensing-analysis catalog selections, we find b-band source densities between 25 and 30 galaxies per square arcminute with a median redshift of z = 1.1. Our analysis confirms SuperBIT's capability for weak gravitational lensing measurements in the blue.

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter LambdaCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base LambdaCDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega_c h^2 = 0.120pm 0.001, baryon density Omega_b h^2 = 0.0224pm 0.0001, scalar spectral index n_s = 0.965pm 0.004, and optical depth tau = 0.054pm 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68,% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95,% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03,% precision, with 100theta_*=1.0411pm 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-LambdaCDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H_0 = (67.4pm 0.5)km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.315pm 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma_8 = 0.811pm 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-LambdaCDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N_{rm eff} = 2.99pm 0.17, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to sum m_nu< 0.12eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -LambdaCDM at over 2,sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-LambdaCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

The Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) employs coherent receivers at 43GHz and 95GHz, operating on the Chajnantor plateau in the Atacama Desert in Chile, to measure the anisotropy in the polarization of the CMB. QUIET primarily targets the B modes from primordial gravitational waves. The combination of these frequencies gives sensitivity to foreground contributions from diffuse Galactic synchrotron radiation. Between 2008 October and 2010 December, >10,000hours of data were collected, first with the 19-element 43GHz array (3458hours) and then with the 90-element 95GHz array. Each array observes the same four fields, selected for low foregrounds, together covering ~1000deg^2. This paper reports initial results from the 43GHz receiver which has an array sensitivity to CMB fluctuations of 69uK sqrt(s). The data were extensively studied with a large suite of null tests before the power spectra, determined with two independent pipelines, were examined. Analysis choices, including data selection, were modified until the null tests passed. Cross correlating maps with different telescope pointings is used to eliminate a bias. This paper reports the EE, BB and EB power spectra in the multipole range ell=25-475. With the exception of the lowest multipole bin for one of the fields, where a polarized foreground, consistent with Galactic synchrotron radiation, is detected with 3sigma significance, the E-mode spectrum is consistent with the LCDM model, confirming the only previous detection of the first acoustic peak. The B-mode spectrum is consistent with zero, leading to a measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r=0.35+1.06-0.87. The combination of a new time-stream double-demodulation technique, Mizuguchi-Dragone optics, natural sky rotation, and frequent boresight rotation leads to the lowest level of systematic contamination in the B-mode power so far reported, below the level of r=0.1

We present a catalog of 689 galaxy cluster candidates detected at significance ξ>4 via their thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect signature in 95 and 150 GHz data from the 500-square-degree SPTpol survey. We use optical and infrared data from the Dark Energy Camera and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and \spitzer \ satellites, to confirm 544 of these candidates as clusters with sim94% purity. The sample has an approximately redshift-independent mass threshold at redshift z>0.25 and spans 1.5 times 10^{14} < M_{500c} < 9.1 times 10^{14} M_odot/h_{70} \ and 0.03<zlesssim1.6 in mass and redshift, respectively; 21\% of the confirmed clusters are at z>1. We use external radio data from the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) to estimate contamination to the SZ signal from synchrotron sources. The contamination reduces the recovered ξ by a median value of 0.032, or sim0.8% of the ξ=4 threshold value, and sim7% of candidates have a predicted contamination greater than Δξ= 1. With the exception of a small number of systems (<1%), an analysis of clusters detected in single-frequency 95 and 150 GHz data shows no significant contamination of the SZ signal by emission from dusty or synchrotron sources. This cluster sample will be a key component in upcoming astrophysical and cosmological analyses of clusters. The SPTpol millimeter-wave maps and associated data products used to produce this sample are available at https://pole.uchicago.edu/public/data/sptpol_500d_clusters/index.html, and the NASA LAMBDA website. An interactive sky server with the SPTpol maps and Dark Energy Survey data release 2 images is also available at NCSA https://skyviewer.ncsa.illinois.edu.

We present the third data release of the European Space Agency's Gaia mission, GDR3. The GDR3 catalogue is the outcome of the processing of raw data collected with the Gaia instruments during the first 34 months of the mission by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium. The GDR3 catalogue contains the same source list, celestial positions, proper motions, parallaxes, and broad band photometry in the G, G_{BP}, and G_{RP} pass-bands already present in the Early Third Data Release. GDR3 introduces an impressive wealth of new data products. More than 33 million objects in the ranges G_{rvs} < 14 and 3100 <T_{eff} <14500 , have new determinations of their mean radial velocities based on data collected by Gaia. We provide G_{rvs} magnitudes for most sources with radial velocities, and a line broadening parameter is listed for a subset of these. Mean Gaia spectra are made available to the community. The GDR3 catalogue includes about 1 million mean spectra from the radial velocity spectrometer, and about 220 million low-resolution blue and red prism photometer BPRP mean spectra. The results of the analysis of epoch photometry are provided for some 10 million sources across 24 variability types. GDR3 includes astrophysical parameters and source class probabilities for about 470 million and 1500 million sources, respectively, including stars, galaxies, and quasars. Orbital elements and trend parameters are provided for some 800,000 astrometric, spectroscopic and eclipsing binaries. More than 150,000 Solar System objects, including new discoveries, with preliminary orbital solutions and individual epoch observations are part of this release. Reflectance spectra derived from the epoch BPRP spectral data are published for about 60\,000 asteroids. Finally, an additional data set is provided, namely the Gaia Andromeda Photometric Survey (abridged)

An amplitude analysis of B^-rightarrow D^- D^0 K_S^0 decays is performed using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9,fb^{-1}, collected with the LHCb detector at center-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13,Tekern -0.1em V. A resonant structure of spin-parity 0^+ is observed in the D^0 K_S^0 invariant-mass spectrum with a significance of 5.3,sigma. The mass and width of the state, modeled with a Breit-Wigner lineshape, are determined to be 2883pm11pm6,Mekern -0.1em V!/c^2 and 87_{-47}^{+22}pm6,Mekern -0.1em V respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. These properties and the quark content are consistent with those of the open-charm tetraquark state T_{cs 0}^{*}(2870)^0 observed previously in the D^+ K^- final state of the B^-rightarrow D^- D^+ K^- decay. This result confirms the existence of the T_{cs 0}^{*}(2870)^0 state in a new decay mode. The T_{cs1}^{*}(2900)^0 state, reported in the B^-rightarrow D^- D^+ K^- decay, is also searched for in the D^0 K_S^0 invariant-mass spectrum of the B^- rightarrow D^- D^0 K_S^0 decay, without finding evidence for it.

We describe an analysis comparing the pp elastic cross section as measured by the D0 Collaboration at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV to that in pp collisions as measured by the TOTEM Collaboration at 2.76, 7, 8, and 13 TeV using a model-independent approach. The TOTEM cross sections extrapolated to a center-of-mass energy of s = 1.96 TeV are compared with the D0 measurement in the region of the diffractive minimum and the second maximum of the pp cross section. The two data sets disagree at the 3.4σ level and thus provide evidence for the t-channel exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound, also known as the odderon. We combine these results with a TOTEM analysis of the same C-odd exchange based on the total cross section and the ratio of the real to imaginary parts of the forward elastic scattering amplitude in pp scattering. The combined significance of these results is larger than 5σ and is interpreted as the first observation of the exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound.

We present final results on the angular power spectrum of total intensity anisotropies in the CMB from the CBI. Our analysis includes all primordial anisotropy data collected between January 2000 and April 2005, and benefits significantly from an improved maximum likelihood analysis pipeline. It also includes results from a 30 GHz foreground survey conducted with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) which places significant constraints on the possible contamination due to foreground point sources. We improve on previous CBI results by about a factor of two in the damping tail. These data confirm, at ~3-sigma, the existence of an excess of power over intrinsic CMB anisotropy on small angular scales (l > 1800). Using the GBT survey, we find currently known radio source populations are not capable of generating the power; a new population of faint sources with steeply rising spectral indices would be required to explain the excess with sources... We also present a full cosmological parameter analysis of the new CBI power spectrum... With CBI alone, the full parameter analysis finds the excess is 1.6-sigma above the level expected for a sigma_8=0.8 universe. We find the addition of high-l CMB data substantially improves constraints on cosmic string contributions to the TT power spectrum as well as the running of the scalar spectral index... We also present forecasts for what other experiments should see at different frequencies and angular resolutions given the excess power observed by CBI. We find that the reported high-l bandpowers from current high resolution CMB bolometer experiments are consistent with each other and CBI if the excess power is due to the SZE at the CBI-level of 2.5 +/- 1 times the sigma_8=0.8 standard SZ template. <Abridged>

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg^2 on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the ΛCDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, S_8equiv σ_8 (Ω_{rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}. A ΛCDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017} that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered S_8 values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by 2.3σ and 2.1σ (p-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the S_8 posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit S_8 by 0.5σ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low redshift surveys, retraining the SALT3 light curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises sim1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and sim200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω_{rm m} = 0.330 pm 0.015 in Flat ΛCDM which changes Ω_{rm m} by -0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with CMB data from Planck, ACT and SPT and the DESI DR2 measurements in a Flat w_0 w_aCDM cosmology, we find w_0 = -0.803 pm 0.054, w_a = -0.72 pm 0.21. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the Flat w_0 w_aCDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2, Keck Array and BICEP3 CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2018 observing season. We add additional Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and BICEP3 observations at 95 GHz to the previous 95/150/220 GHz data set. The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8 and 8.8 μ{mathrm K}_{cmb} arcmin at 95, 150 and 220 GHz respectively over an effective area of approx 600 square degrees at 95 GHz and approx 400 square degrees at 150 & 220 GHz. The 220 GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz and evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed-ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and no longer requires a prior on the frequency spectral index of the dust emission taken from measurements on other regions of the sky. This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.036 at 95% confidence. Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.009. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

We present AstroVink, a vision transformer classifier designed for automated identification of strong lens candidates in Euclid imaging. We build upon the DINOv2 encoder, fine tuned to distinguish between lens and non-lens galaxies. Our base model, trained on simulated strong lens systems and labelled non lenses, recovers 88 of the 110 lens candidates within the top 500 ranked candidates, corresponding to an inspection efficiency of one lens per 5.7 inspected objects in our test set. After the Q1 data release, which yielded about 500 lens candidates, we retrained the model using high confidence lens candidates and new negatives, initially flagged as potential lenses by other classifiers but rejected during visual inspection. The retrained network further improves performance, achieving recovery of all 110 systems within the same ranking and reducing the inspection effort to one lens per 4.5 inspected objects, demonstrating that incorporating real examples significantly enhances model generalisation. An analysis of training subsets revealed that the inclusion of realistic negative examples played a key role in this improvement. Finally, we applied the retrained model to the Q1 original selection of 1.08M targets, followed by a new round of Space Warps citizen science inspection and expert vetting, where we identified a total of eight Grade A and 26 Grade B new lens candidates. These results demonstrate that transformer based architectures can recover strong lens candidates with high efficiency in real Euclid data, while substantially reducing the number of candidates requiring visual inspection.

We present a re-discovery of G278.94+1.35 as possibly one of the largest known Galactic supernova remnants (SNR) - that we name Diprotodon. While previously established as a Galactic SNR, Diprotodon is visible in our new EMU and GLEAM radio continuum images at an angular size of 3.33x3.23 deg, much larger than previously measured. At the previously suggested distance of 2.7 kpc, this implies a diameter of 157x152 pc. This size would qualify Diprotodon as the largest known SNR and pushes our estimates of SNR sizes to the upper limits. We investigate the environment in which the SNR is located and examine various scenarios that might explain such a large and relatively bright SNR appearance. We find that Diprotodon is most likely at a much closer distance of sim1 kpc, implying its diameter is 58x56 pc and it is in the radiative evolutionary phase. We also present a new Fermi-LAT data analysis that confirms the angular extent of the SNR in gamma-rays. The origin of the high-energy emission remains somewhat puzzling, and the scenarios we explore reveal new puzzles, given this unexpected and unique observation of a seemingly evolved SNR having a hard GeV spectrum with no breaks. We explore both leptonic and hadronic scenarios, as well as the possibility that the high-energy emission arises from the leftover particle population of a historic pulsar wind nebula.

This paper presents the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data processing procedures for the Planck 2018 release. Major improvements in mapmaking have been achieved since the previous 2015 release. They enabled the first significant measurement of the reionization optical depth parameter using HFI data. This paper presents an extensive analysis of systematic effects, including the use of simulations to facilitate their removal and characterize the residuals. The polarized data, which presented a number of known problems in the 2015 Planck release, are very significantly improved. Calibration, based on the CMB dipole, is now extremely accurate and in the frequency range 100 to 353 GHz reduces intensity-to-polarization leakage caused by calibration mismatch. The Solar dipole direction has been determined in the three lowest HFI frequency channels to within one arc minute, and its amplitude has an absolute uncertainty smaller than 0.35μK, an accuracy of order 10^{-4}. This is a major legacy from the HFI for future CMB experiments. The removal of bandpass leakage has been improved by extracting the bandpass-mismatch coefficients for each detector as part of the mapmaking process; these values in turn improve the intensity maps. This is a major change in the philosophy of "frequency maps", which are now computed from single detector data, all adjusted to the same average bandpass response for the main foregrounds. Simulations reproduce very well the relative gain calibration of detectors, as well as drifts within a frequency induced by the residuals of the main systematic effect. Using these simulations, we measure and correct the small frequency calibration bias induced by this systematic effect at the 10^{-4} level. There is no detectable sign of a residual calibration bias between the first and second acoustic peaks in the CMB channels, at the 10^{-3} level.

The Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) has observed the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 43 and 95GHz. The 43-GHz results have been published in QUIET Collaboration et al. (2011), and here we report the measurement of CMB polarization power spectra using the 95-GHz data. This data set comprises 5337 hours of observations recorded by an array of 84 polarized coherent receivers with a total array sensitivity of 87 uK sqrt(s). Four low-foreground fields were observed, covering a total of ~1000 square degrees with an effective angular resolution of 12.8', allowing for constraints on primordial gravitational waves and high-signal-to-noise measurements of the E-modes across three acoustic peaks. The data reduction was performed using two independent analysis pipelines, one based on a pseudo-Cl (PCL) cross-correlation approach, and the other on a maximum-likelihood (ML) approach. All data selection criteria and filters were modified until a predefined set of null tests had been satisfied before inspecting any non-null power spectrum. The results derived by the two pipelines are in good agreement. We characterize the EE, EB and BB power spectra between l=25 and 975 and find that the EE spectrum is consistent with LCDM, while the BB power spectrum is consistent with zero. Based on these measurements, we constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio to r=1.1+0.9-0.8 (r<2.8 at 95% C.L.) as derived by the ML pipeline, and r=1.2+0.9-0.8 (r<2.7 at 95% C.L.) as derived by the PCL pipeline. In one of the fields, we find a correlation with the dust component of the Planck Sky Model, though the corresponding excess power is small compared to statistical errors. Finally, we derive limits on all known systematic errors, and demonstrate that these correspond to a tensor-to-scalar ratio smaller than r=0.01, the lowest level yet reported in the literature.

The star S2 orbiting the compact radio source Sgr A* is a precision probe of the gravitational field around the closest massive black hole (candidate). Over the last 2.7 decades we have monitored the star's radial velocity and motion on the sky, mainly with the SINFONI and NACO adaptive optics (AO) instruments on the ESO VLT, and since 2017, with the four-telescope interferometric beam combiner instrument GRAVITY. In this paper we report the first detection of the General Relativity (GR) Schwarzschild Precession (SP) in S2's orbit. Owing to its highly elliptical orbit (e = 0.88), S2's SP is mainly a kink between the pre-and post-pericentre directions of motion ~ +- 1 year around pericentre passage, relative to the corresponding Kepler orbit. The superb 2017-2019 astrometry of GRAVITY defines the pericentre passage and outgoing direction. The incoming direction is anchored by 118 NACO-AO measurements of S2's position in the infrared reference frame, with an additional 75 direct measurements of the S2-Sgr A* separation during bright states ('flares') of Sgr A*. Our 14-parameter model fits for the distance, central mass, the position and motion of the reference frame of the AO astrometry relative to the mass, the six parameters of the orbit, as well as a dimensionless parameter f_SP for the SP (f_SP = 0 for Newton and 1 for GR). From data up to the end of 2019 we robustly detect the SP of S2, del phi = 12' per orbital period. From posterior fitting and MCMC Bayesian analysis with different weighting schemes and bootstrapping we find f_SP = 1.10 +- 0.19. The S2 data are fully consistent with GR. Any extended mass inside S2's orbit cannot exceed ~ 0.1% of the central mass. Any compact third mass inside the central arcsecond must be less than about 1000 M_sun.

LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO 600 form a network of gravitational-wave observatories. Data and analysis results from this network are made publicly available through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center (GWOSC). This paper describes open data from this network, including the addition of data from the second part of the fourth observing run (O4b) and selected periods from the preceding engineering run (ER16), which were collected from times spanning April 6th, 2024 to January 28th, 2025. The public data set includes calibrated strain time series for each instrument, data from additional channels used for noise subtraction and detector characterization, and new analysis data products in the online GWOSC release associated with version 5.0 of the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog.

We present griz light curves of 251 Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) from the first 3 years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program's (DES-SN) spectroscopically classified sample. The photometric pipeline described in this paper produces the calibrated fluxes and associated uncertainties used in the cosmological parameter analysis (Brout et al. 2018-SYS, DES Collaboration et al. 2018) by employing a scene modeling approach that simultaneously forward models a variable transient flux and temporally constant host galaxy. We inject artificial point sources onto DECam images to test the accuracy of our photometric method. Upon comparison of input and measured artificial supernova fluxes, we find flux biases peak at 3 mmag. We require corrections to our photometric uncertainties as a function of host galaxy surface brightness at the transient location, similar to that seen by the DES Difference Imaging Pipeline used to discover transients. The public release of the light curves can be found at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn.

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

Foundation models have begun to transform image analysis by acting as pretrained generalist backbones that can be adapted to many tasks even when post-training data are limited, yet their impact on spatial proteomics, imaging that maps proteins at single-cell resolution, remains limited. Here, we introduce KRONOS, a foundation model built for spatial proteomics. KRONOS was trained in a self-supervised manner on over 47 million image patches covering 175 protein markers, 16 tissue types, and 8 fluorescence-based imaging platforms. We introduce key architectural adaptations to address the high-dimensional, multi-channel, and heterogeneous nature of multiplex imaging. We demonstrate that KRONOS learns biologically meaningful representations across multiple scales, ranging from cellular and microenvironment to tissue levels, enabling it to address diverse downstream tasks, including cell phenotyping, region classification, and patient stratification. Evaluated across 11 independent cohorts, KRONOS achieves state-of-the-art performance across cell phenotyping, treatment response prediction, and retrieval tasks, and is highly data-efficient. KRONOS also introduces the paradigm of segmentation-free patch-level processing for efficient and scalable spatial proteomics analysis, allowing cross-institutional comparisons, and as an image reverse search engine for spatial patterns. Together, these results position KRONOS as a flexible and scalable tool for spatial proteomics. The model is publicly accessible at https://github.com/mahmoodlab/KRONOS.

This document describes the technical layout and the expected performance of the Straw Tube Tracker (STT), the main tracking detector of the PANDA target spectrometer. The STT encloses a Micro-Vertex-Detector (MVD) for the inner tracking and is followed in beam direction by a set of GEM-stations. The tasks of the STT are the measurement of the particle momentum from the reconstructed trajectory and the measurement of the specific energy-loss for a particle identification. Dedicated simulations with full analysis studies of certain proton-antiproton reactions, identified as being benchmark tests for the whole PANDA scientific program, have been performed to test the STT layout and performance. The results are presented, and the time lines to construct the STT are described.

We present the NPIPE processing pipeline, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization from data from the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) and High Frequency Instrument (HFI) using high-performance computers. NPIPE represents a natural evolution of previous Planck analysis efforts, and combines some of the most powerful features of the separate LFI and HFI analysis pipelines. The net effect of the improvements is lower levels of noise and systematics in both frequency and component maps at essentially all angular scales, as well as notably improved internal consistency between the various frequency channels. Based on the NPIPE maps, we present the first estimate of the Solar dipole determined through component separation across all nine Planck frequencies. The amplitude is (3366.6 pm 2.7)μK, consistent with, albeit slightly higher than, earlier estimates. From the large-scale polarization data, we derive an updated estimate of the optical depth of reionization of τ= 0.051 pm 0.006, which appears robust with respect to data and sky cuts. There are 600 complete signal, noise and systematics simulations of the full-frequency and detector-set maps. As a Planck first, these simulations include full time-domain processing of the beam-convolved CMB anisotropies. The release of NPIPE maps and simulations is accompanied with a complete suite of raw and processed time-ordered data and the software, scripts, auxiliary data, and parameter files needed to improve further on the analysis and to run matching simulations.

Gaia DR3 opens a new era of all-sky spectral analysis of stellar populations thanks to the nearly 5.6 million stars observed by the RVS and parametrised by the GSP-spec module. The all-sky Gaia chemical cartography allows a powerful and precise chemo-dynamical view of the Milky Way with unprecedented spatial coverage and statistical robustness. First, it reveals the strong vertical symmetry of the Galaxy and the flared structure of the disc. Second, the observed kinematic disturbances of the disc -- seen as phase space correlations -- and kinematic or orbital substructures are associated with chemical patterns that favour stars with enhanced metallicities and lower [alpha/Fe] abundance ratios compared to the median values in the radial distributions. This is detected both for young objects that trace the spiral arms and older populations. Several alpha, iron-peak elements and at least one heavy element trace the thin and thick disc properties in the solar cylinder. Third, young disc stars show a recent chemical impoverishment in several elements. Fourth, the largest chemo-dynamical sample of open clusters analysed so far shows a steepening of the radial metallicity gradient with age, which is also observed in the young field population. Finally, the Gaia chemical data have the required coverage and precision to unveil galaxy accretion debris and heated disc stars on halo orbits through their [alpha/Fe] ratio, and to allow the study of the chemo-dynamical properties of globular clusters. Gaia DR3 chemo-dynamical diagnostics open new horizons before the era of ground-based wide-field spectroscopic surveys. They unveil a complex Milky Way that is the outcome of an eventful evolution, shaping it to the present day (abridged).

We describe the observations and resultant galaxy cluster catalog from the 2770 deg^2 SPTpol Extended Cluster Survey (SPT-ECS). Clusters are identified via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect, and confirmed with a combination of archival and targeted follow-up data, making particular use of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). With incomplete followup we have confirmed as clusters 244 of 266 candidates at a detection significance ξge 5 and an additional 204 systems at 4<ξ<5. The confirmed sample has a median mass of M_{500c} 4.4 times 10^{14 M_odot h_{70}^{-1}}, a median redshift of z=0.49, and we have identified 44 strong gravitational lenses in the sample thus far. Radio data are used to characterize contamination to the SZ signal; the median contamination for confirmed clusters is predicted to be sim1% of the SZ signal at the ξ>4 threshold, and <4% of clusters have a predicted contamination >10% of their measured SZ flux. We associate SZ-selected clusters, from both SPT-ECS and the SPT-SZ survey, with clusters from the DES redMaPPer sample, and find an offset distribution between the SZ center and central galaxy in general agreement with previous work, though with a larger fraction of clusters with significant offsets. Adopting a fixed Planck-like cosmology, we measure the optical richness-to-SZ-mass (λ-M) relation and find it to be 28% shallower than that from a weak-lensing analysis of the DES data---a difference significant at the 4 σ level---with the relations intersecting at λ=60 . The SPT-ECS cluster sample will be particularly useful for studying the evolution of massive clusters and, in combination with DES lensing observations and the SPT-SZ cluster sample, will be an important component of future cosmological analyses.

The Euclid satellite is an ESA mission that was launched in July 2023. \Euclid is working in its regular observing mode with the target of observing an area of 14,000~deg^2 with two instruments, the Visible Camera (VIS) and the Near IR Spectrometer and Photometer (NISP) down to I_{rm E} = 24.5~mag (10, sigma) in the Euclid Wide Survey. Ground-based imaging data in the ugriz bands complement the \Euclid data to enable photo-z determination and VIS PSF modeling for week lensing analysis. Euclid investigates the distance-redshift relation and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies and clusters of galaxies out to zsim 2. Generating the multi-wavelength catalogues from \Euclid and ground-based data is an essential part of the \Euclid data processing system. In the framework of the \Euclid Science Ground Segment (SGS), the aim of the MER Processing Function (PF) pipeline is to detect objects in the \Euclid imaging data, measure their properties, and MERge them into a single multi-wavelength catalogue. The MER PF pipeline performs source detection on both visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) images and offers four different photometric measurements: Kron total flux, aperture photometry on PSF-matched images, template fitting photometry, and S\'ersic fitting photometry. Furthermore, the MER PF pipeline measures a set of ancillary quantities, spanning from morphology to quality flags, to better characterise all detected sources. In this paper, we show how the MER PF pipeline is designed, detailing its main steps, and we show that the pipeline products meet the tight requirements that Euclid aims to achieve on photometric accuracy. We also present the other measurements (e.g. morphology) that are included in the OU-MER output catalogues and we list all output products coming out of the MER PF pipeline.

We have conducted an extensive towed-magnetic-sled survey during the period of June 14-28, 2023, over the seafloor about 85 km north of Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, centered around the calculated path of the bolide CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1). We found about 850 spherules of diameter 0.1-1.3 millimeters in our samples. The samples were analyzed by micro-XRF, Electron Probe Microanalyzer and ICP Mass spectrometry. Here we report major and trace element compositions of the samples and classify spherules based on that analysis. Spherules comprising 22% of the collection, appear to all reflect planetary igneous differentiation and are all different from previously described spherules. A subset of the differentiated-spherules show an excess of Be, La and U, by up to three orders of magnitude relative to the solar system standard of CI chondrites. Detailed mass spectrometry of 12 of these "BeLaU"-type spherules, the population of which may constitute up to ~10% of our entire collected sample, suggests that they are derived from material formed by planetary igneous fractionation. Their chemical composition is unlike any known solar system material. The "BeLaU"-type spherules reflect a highly differentiated, extremely evolved composition of an unknown source.

We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background.

Data-driven scientific discovery requires iterative cycles of literature search, hypothesis generation, and data analysis. Substantial progress has been made towards AI agents that can automate scientific research, but all such agents remain limited in the number of actions they can take before losing coherence, thus limiting the depth of their findings. Here we present Kosmos, an AI scientist that automates data-driven discovery. Given an open-ended objective and a dataset, Kosmos runs for up to 12 hours performing cycles of parallel data analysis, literature search, and hypothesis generation before synthesizing discoveries into scientific reports. Unlike prior systems, Kosmos uses a structured world model to share information between a data analysis agent and a literature search agent. The world model enables Kosmos to coherently pursue the specified objective over 200 agent rollouts, collectively executing an average of 42,000 lines of code and reading 1,500 papers per run. Kosmos cites all statements in its reports with code or primary literature, ensuring its reasoning is traceable. Independent scientists found 79.4% of statements in Kosmos reports to be accurate, and collaborators reported that a single 20-cycle Kosmos run performed the equivalent of 6 months of their own research time on average. Furthermore, collaborators reported that the number of valuable scientific findings generated scales linearly with Kosmos cycles (tested up to 20 cycles). We highlight seven discoveries made by Kosmos that span metabolomics, materials science, neuroscience, and statistical genetics. Three discoveries independently reproduce findings from preprinted or unpublished manuscripts that were not accessed by Kosmos at runtime, while four make novel contributions to the scientific literature.

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of SPIDER, an experiment designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. Results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance; Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the SPIDER bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques in order to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, employing a joint analysis of SPIDER and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman-Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r<0.11 and r<0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from SPIDER's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

The stars of the Milky Way carry the chemical history of our Galaxy in their atmospheres as they journey through its vast expanse. Like barcodes, we can extract the chemical fingerprints of stars from high-resolution spectroscopy. The fourth data release (DR4) of the Galactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) Survey, based on a decade of observations, provides the chemical abundances of up to 32 elements for 917 588 stars that also have exquisite astrometric data from the Gaia satellite. For the first time, these elements include life-essential nitrogen to complement carbon, and oxygen as well as more measurements of rare-earth elements critical to modern-life electronics, offering unparalleled insights into the chemical composition of the Milky Way. For this release, we use neural networks to simultaneously fit stellar parameters and abundances across the whole wavelength range, leveraging synthetic grids computed with Spectroscopy Made Easy. These grids account for atomic line formation in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium for 14 elements. In a two-iteration process, we first fit stellar labels to all 1 085 520 spectra, then co-add repeated observations and refine these labels using astrometric data from Gaia and 2MASS photometry, improving the accuracy and precision of stellar parameters and abundances. Our validation thoroughly assesses the reliability of spectroscopic measurements and highlights key caveats. GALAH DR4 represents yet another milestone in Galactic archaeology, combining detailed chemical compositions from multiple nucleosynthetic channels with kinematic information and age estimates. The resulting dataset, covering nearly a million stars, opens new avenues for understanding not only the chemical and dynamical history of the Milky Way, but also the broader questions of the origin of elements and the evolution of planets, stars, and galaxies.

The event selection developed for the Fermi Large Area Telescope before launch has been periodically updated to reflect the constantly improving knowledge of the detector and the environment in which it operates. Pass 7, released to the public in August 2011, represents the most recent major iteration of this incremental process. In parallel, the LAT team has undertaken a coherent long-term effort aimed at a radical revision of the entire event-level analysis, based on the experience gained in the prime phase of the mission. This includes virtually every aspect of the data reduction process, from the simulation of the detector to the event reconstruction and the background rejection. The potential improvements include (but are not limited to) a significant reduction in background contamination coupled with an increased effective area, a better point-spread function, a better understanding of the systematic uncertainties and an extension of the energy reach for the photon analysis below 100 MeV and above a few hundred GeV. We present an overview of the work that has been done or is ongoing and the prospects for the near future.

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is a cubic-kilometer-scale high-energy neutrino detector built into the ice at the South Pole. Construction of IceCube, the largest neutrino detector built to date, was completed in 2011 and enabled the discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos. We describe here the design, production, and calibration of the IceCube digital optical module (DOM), the cable systems, computing hardware, and our methodology for drilling and deployment. We also describe the online triggering and data filtering systems that select candidate neutrino and cosmic ray events for analysis. Due to a rigorous pre-deployment protocol, 98.4% of the DOMs in the deep ice are operating and collecting data. IceCube routinely achieves a detector uptime of 99% by emphasizing software stability and monitoring. Detector operations have been stable since construction was completed, and the detector is expected to operate at least until the end of the next decade.

Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo are actively monitoring the sky and collecting gravitational-wave strain data with sufficient sensitivity to detect signals routinely. In this paper we describe the data recorded by these instruments during their first and second observing runs. The main data products are the gravitational-wave strain arrays, released as time series sampled at 16384 Hz. The datasets that include this strain measurement can be freely accessed through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center at http://gw-openscience.org, together with data-quality information essential for the analysis of LIGO and Virgo data, documentation, tutorials, and supporting software.

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

IceCube has performed several all-sky searches for point-like neutrino sources using track-like events, including a recent time-integrated analysis using 10 years of IceCube data. This paper accompanies the public data release of these neutrino candidates detected by IceCube between April 6, 2008 and July 8, 2018. The selection includes through-going tracks, primarily due to muon neutrino candidates, that reach the detector from all directions, as well as neutrino track events that start within the instrumented volume. An updated selection and reconstruction for data taken after April 2012 slightly improves the sensitivity of the sample. While more than 80% of the sample overlaps between the old and new versions, differing events can lead to changes relative to the previous 7 year event selection. An a posteriori estimate of the significance of the 2014-2015 TXS flare is reported with an explanation of observed discrepancies with previous results. This public data release, which includes 10 years of data and binned detector response functions for muon neutrino signal events, shows improved sensitivity in generic time-integrated point source analyses and should be preferred over previous releases.

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

We present the Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1), comprised of processed multi-color Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) griz and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) gr photometry of 1975 transients with host-galaxy associations, redshifts, spectroscopic/photometric classifications, and additional data products from 2019 November 24 to 2021 December 20. YSE DR1 spans discoveries and observations from young and fast-rising supernovae (SNe) to transients that persist for over a year, with a redshift distribution reaching z~0.5. We present relative SN rates from YSE's magnitude- and volume-limited surveys, which are consistent with previously published values within estimated uncertainties for untargeted surveys. We combine YSE and ZTF data, and create multi-survey SN simulations to train the ParSNIP and SuperRAENN photometric classification algorithms; when validating our ParSNIP classifier on 472 spectroscopically classified YSE DR1 SNe, we achieve 82% accuracy across three SN classes (SNe Ia, II, Ib/Ic) and 90% accuracy across two SN classes (SNe Ia, core-collapse SNe). Our classifier performs particularly well on SNe Ia, with high (>90%) individual completeness and purity, which will help build an anchor photometric SNe Ia sample for cosmology. We then use our photometric classifier to characterize our photometric sample of 1483 SNe, labeling 1048 (~71%) SNe Ia, 339 (~23%) SNe II, and 96 (~6%) SNe Ib/Ic. YSE DR1 provides a training ground for building discovery, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms, performing cosmological analyses, understanding the nature of red and rare transients, exploring tidal disruption events and nuclear variability, and preparing for the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

In 2021 Nature Physics published a paper by Vaitiekenas, Liu, Krogstrup and Marcus titled "Zero-bias peaks at zero magnetic field in ferromagnetic hybrid nanowires". The paper reports low temperature transport measurements on semiconductor InAs nanowires with two partly overlapping shells -- a shell of EuS, a magnetic insulator, and a shell of Al, a metal that becomes superconducting at temperatures below 1.2K. The paper claims that (1) the data are consistent with induced topological superconductivity and Majorana zero modes (MZMs), and (2) that this is facilitated by the breaking of the time reversal symmetry through a direct magnetic interaction with the EuS shell. In this Matters Arising, we present an alternative explanation which is based on trivial effects that are likely to appear in the reported geometry. Specifically, first, we find that data the authors present in support of the topological superconductivity claim can originate from unintended quantum dots in their devices, a widely known likely explanation that is not being discussed in the paper. Second, our analysis of the setup, supported by our numerical micromagnetic simulations, shows similar effects could be obtained due to stray magnetic fields from the region of the EuS shell damaged during Al etching. This basic picture should come before the exotic interpretation in terms of magnetic exchange interaction with a ferromagnetic insulator.

Stock prediction is a topic undergoing intense study for many years. Finance experts and mathematicians have been working on a way to predict the future stock price so as to decide to buy the stock or sell it to make profit. Stock experts or economists, usually analyze on the previous stock values using technical indicators, sentiment analysis etc to predict the future stock price. In recent years, many researches have extensively used machine learning for predicting the stock behaviour. In this paper we propose data driven deep learning approach to predict the future stock value with the previous price with the feature extraction property of convolutional neural network and to use Neural Arithmetic Logic Units with it.

Today, Social networks such as Twitter are the most widely used platforms for communication of people. Analyzing this data has useful information to recognize the opinion of people in tweets. Sentiment analysis plays a vital role in NLP, which identifies the opinion of the individuals about a specific topic. Natural language processing in Persian has many challenges despite the adventure of strong language models. The datasets available in Persian are generally in special topics such as products, foods, hotels, etc while users may use ironies, colloquial phrases in social media To overcome these challenges, there is a necessity for having a dataset of Persian sentiment analysis on Twitter. In this paper, we introduce the Exa sentiment analysis Persian dataset, which is collected from Persian tweets. This dataset contains 12,000 tweets, annotated by 5 native Persian taggers. The aforementioned data is labeled in 3 classes: positive, neutral and negative. We present the characteristics and statistics of this dataset and use the pre-trained Pars Bert and Roberta as the base model to evaluate this dataset. Our evaluation reached a 79.87 Macro F-score, which shows the model and data can be adequately valuable for a sentiment analysis system.

In the proposed demo, we will present a new software - Linguistic Field Data Management and Analysis System - LiFE (https://github.com/kmi-linguistics/life) - an open-source, web-based linguistic data management and analysis application that allows for systematic storage, management, sharing and usage of linguistic data collected from the field. The application allows users to store lexical items, sentences, paragraphs, audio-visual content with rich glossing / annotation; generate interactive and print dictionaries; and also train and use natural language processing tools and models for various purposes using this data. Since its a web-based application, it also allows for seamless collaboration among multiple persons and sharing the data, models, etc with each other. The system uses the Python-based Flask framework and MongoDB in the backend and HTML, CSS and Javascript at the frontend. The interface allows creation of multiple projects that could be shared with the other users. At the backend, the application stores the data in RDF format so as to allow its release as Linked Data over the web using semantic web technologies - as of now it makes use of the OntoLex-Lemon for storing the lexical data and Ligt for storing the interlinear glossed text and then internally linking it to the other linked lexicons and databases such as DBpedia and WordNet. Furthermore it provides support for training the NLP systems using scikit-learn and HuggingFace Transformers libraries as well as make use of any model trained using these libraries - while the user interface itself provides limited options for tuning the system, an externally-trained model could be easily incorporated within the application; similarly the dataset itself could be easily exported into a standard machine-readable format like JSON or CSV that could be consumed by other programs and pipelines.

While deep networks have achieved broad success in analyzing natural images, when applied to medical scans, they often fail in unexcepted situations. We investigate this challenge and focus on model sensitivity to domain shifts, such as data sampled from different hospitals or data confounded by demographic variables such as sex, race, etc, in the context of chest X-rays and skin lesion images. A key finding we show empirically is that existing visual backbones lack an appropriate prior from the architecture for reliable generalization in these settings. Taking inspiration from medical training, we propose giving deep networks a prior grounded in explicit medical knowledge communicated in natural language. To this end, we introduce Knowledge-enhanced Bottlenecks (KnoBo), a class of concept bottleneck models that incorporates knowledge priors that constrain it to reason with clinically relevant factors found in medical textbooks or PubMed. KnoBo uses retrieval-augmented language models to design an appropriate concept space paired with an automatic training procedure for recognizing the concept. We evaluate different resources of knowledge and recognition architectures on a broad range of domain shifts across 20 datasets. In our comprehensive evaluation with two imaging modalities, KnoBo outperforms fine-tuned models on confounded datasets by 32.4% on average. Finally, evaluations reveal that PubMed is a promising resource for making medical models less sensitive to domain shift, outperforming other resources on both diversity of information and final prediction performance.

"IMDb" as a user-regulating and one the most-visited portal has provided an opportunity to create an enormous database. Analysis of the information on Internet Movie Database - IMDb, either those related to the movie or provided by users would help to reveal the determinative factors in the route of success for each movie. As the lack of a comprehensive dataset was felt, we determined to do create a compendious dataset for the later analysis using the statistical methods and machine learning models; It comprises of various information provided on IMDb such as rating data, genre, cast and crew, MPAA rating certificate, parental guide details, related movie information, posters, etc, for over 79k titles which is the largest dataset by this date. The present paper is the first paper in a series of papers aiming at the mentioned goals, by a description of the created dataset and a preliminary analysis including some trend in data, demographic analysis of IMDb scores and their relation of genre MPAA rating certificate has been investigated.

Despite the promising performance of state space models (SSMs) in long sequence modeling, limitations still exist. Advanced SSMs like S5 and S6 (Mamba) in addressing non-uniform sampling, their recursive structures impede efficient SSM computation via convolution. To overcome compatibility limitations in parallel convolutional computation, this paper proposes a novel non-recursive non-uniform sample processing strategy. Theoretical analysis of SSMs through the lens of Event-Triggered Control (ETC) theory reveals the Non-Stable State (NSS) problem, where deviations from sampling point requirements lead to error transmission and accumulation, causing the divergence of the SSM's hidden state. Our analysis further reveals that adjustments of input sequences with early memories can mitigate the NSS problem, achieving Sampling Step Adaptation (SSA). Building on this insight, we introduce a simple yet effective plug-and-play mechanism, State Memory Replay (SMR), which utilizes learnable memories to adjust the current state with multi-step information for generalization at sampling points different from those in the training data. This enables SSMs to stably model varying sampling points. Experiments on long-range modeling tasks in autoregressive language modeling and Long Range Arena demonstrate the general effectiveness of the SMR mechanism for a series of SSM models.

The fact that everyone with a social media account can create and share content, and the increasing public reliance on social media platforms as a news and information source bring about significant challenges such as misinformation, fake news, harmful content, etc. Although human content moderation may be useful to an extent and used by these platforms to flag posted materials, the use of AI models provides a more sustainable, scalable, and effective way to mitigate these harmful contents. However, low-resourced languages such as the Somali language face limitations in AI automation, including scarce annotated training datasets and lack of language models tailored to their unique linguistic characteristics. This paper presents part of our ongoing research work to bridge some of these gaps for the Somali language. In particular, we created two human-annotated social-media-sourced Somali datasets for two downstream applications, fake news \& toxicity classification, and developed a transformer-based monolingual Somali language model (named SomBERTa) -- the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. SomBERTa is then fine-tuned and evaluated on toxic content, fake news and news topic classification datasets. Comparative evaluation analysis of the proposed model against related multilingual models (e.g., AfriBERTa, AfroXLMR, etc) demonstrated that SomBERTa consistently outperformed these comparators in both fake news and toxic content classification tasks while achieving the best average accuracy (87.99%) across all tasks. This research contributes to Somali NLP by offering a foundational language model and a replicable framework for other low-resource languages, promoting digital and AI inclusivity and linguistic diversity.

In generative models, two paradigms have gained attraction in various applications: next-set prediction-based Masked Generative Models and next-noise prediction-based Non-Autoregressive Models, e.g., Diffusion Models. In this work, we propose using discrete-state models to connect them and explore their scalability in the vision domain. First, we conduct a step-by-step analysis in a unified design space across two types of models including timestep-independence, noise schedule, temperature, guidance strength, etc in a scalable manner. Second, we re-cast typical discriminative tasks, e.g., image segmentation, as an unmasking process from [MASK]tokens on a discrete-state model. This enables us to perform various sampling processes, including flexible conditional sampling by only training once to model the joint distribution. All aforementioned explorations lead to our framework named Discrete Interpolants, which enables us to achieve state-of-the-art or competitive performance compared to previous discrete-state based methods in various benchmarks, like ImageNet256, MS COCO, and video dataset FaceForensics. In summary, by leveraging [MASK] in discrete-state models, we can bridge Masked Generative and Non-autoregressive Diffusion models, as well as generative and discriminative tasks.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are broadly empowering various fields. Despite their advancements, the explainability of MLLMs remains less explored, hindering deeper understanding, model credibility, and effective visualization. Unlike conventional vision models (e.g., CNNs, ViTs, CLIP) that produce a single output, MLLMs generate sequences of tokens progressively, where each generated token depends on the previous context. Therefore, earlier context tokens can introduce redundant activations that interfere with the explanation of later tokens beyond their original information. Existing studies often overlook this issue, but our observations reveal that these redundant correlations can significantly hurt the reliability of explanations. To address this, we propose an estimated causal inference method to mitigate the interference of context to achieve high-quality MLLM explanation, with a novel rank Gaussian filter to further reduce activation noises. We term this method Token Activation Map (TAM) to highlight the consideration of interactions between tokens. TAM also indicates that it excels at explaining multiple tokens of MLLM, which is different from the Class Activation Map (CAM) for a single prediction. Our TAM method significantly outperforms existing SoTA methods, showcasing high-quality visualization results that can be utilized for various scenarios, such as object localization, failure case analysis, video visualization, MLLMs visual comparison, and model understanding (e.g., color, shape, action, location, visual reasoning, multi-turn conversation, etc). The code is available atgithub.com/xmed-lab/TAM.

This paper surveys research works in the quickly advancing field of instruction tuning (IT), a crucial technique to enhance the capabilities and controllability of large language models (LLMs). Instruction tuning refers to the process of further training LLMs on a dataset consisting of (instruction, output) pairs in a supervised fashion, which bridges the gap between the next-word prediction objective of LLMs and the users' objective of having LLMs adhere to human instructions. In this work, we make a systematic review of the literature, including the general methodology of IT, the construction of IT datasets, the training of IT models, and applications to different modalities, domains and applications, along with an analysis on aspects that influence the outcome of IT (e.g., generation of instruction outputs, size of the instruction dataset, etc). We also review the potential pitfalls of IT along with criticism against it, along with efforts pointing out current deficiencies of existing strategies and suggest some avenues for fruitful research.

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key policy tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing toward a net-zero economy. Under this scheme, tradeable carbon credits, European Union Allowances (EUAs), are issued to large emitters, who can buy and sell them on regulated markets. We investigate the influence of financial, economic, and energy-related factors on EUA futures prices using discrete and dynamic Bayesian networks to model both contemporaneous and time-lagged dependencies. The analysis is based on daily data spanning the third and fourth ETS trading phases (2013-2025), incorporating a wide range of indicators including energy commodities, equity indices, exchange rates, and bond markets. Results reveal that EUA pricing is most influenced by energy commodities, especially coal and oil futures, and by the performance of the European energy sector. Broader market sentiment, captured through stock indices and volatility measures, affects EUA prices indirectly via changes in energy demand. The dynamic model confirms a modest next-day predictive influence from oil markets, while most other effects remain contemporaneous. These insights offer regulators, institutional investors, and firms subject to ETS compliance a clearer understanding of the interconnected forces shaping the carbon market, supporting more effective hedging, investment strategies, and policy design.

The analytical formulae for the phase space factors and the three-momenta of three- and four-body final states are derived for all sets of independent kinematic variables containing invariant mass variables. These formulae will help experimental physicist to perform the data analysis. As an example, we show how to use these formulae to distinguish the different mechanisms of e+pto e+J/ψ+ p process for searching the signals of P_c states at the energy region of Electron-Ion collider at China (EicC).

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

AI inference services -- API subscriptions, enterprise chat tools, and SaaS products with embedded AI features -- fall unambiguously within Scope 3 Category 1 under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which requires disclosure for fiscal years starting January 2024. Yet no standardised methodology exists for including them in corporate GHG inventories. Current practice either omits the category entirely or applies a generic economic input-output (EEIO) factor calibrated to the ICT sector as a whole, overestimating AI inference emissions by 10-40x relative to physically derived alternatives. We propose a four-tier framework that matches estimation precision to the data organisations can realistically obtain, progressing from direct token-based physical estimation -- using GPU energy benchmarks and regional grid carbon intensities -- down to a spend-based EEIO fallback for services where no usage data exists. Emission factors are derived from peer-reviewed GPU energy benchmarks (ML.ENERGY Leaderboard v3), confirmed grid carbon intensities (EPA eGRID 2023; Ember 2023), and published water use effectiveness data (Li et al., 2025). Applied to a 200-person European firm, the framework yields a total below 1 tCO2e, illustrating that the compliance challenge is methodological rather than magnitude-driven. We further document a water-carbon trade-off that current ESG tools do not surface: Sweden's hydro-dominated grid delivers the lowest carbon intensity in our dataset but the highest water footprint, with direct implications for data centre location strategy.

The global trade in electronic and electrical goods is complicated by the challenge of identifying e-waste, which is often misclassified to evade regulations. Traditional analysis methods struggle to discern the underlying patterns of this illicit trade within vast datasets. This research proposes and validates a robust, data-driven framework to segment products and identify goods exhibiting an anomalous "waste signature" a trade pattern defined by a clear 'inverse price-volume'. The core of the framework is an Outlier-Aware Segmentation method, an iterative K-Means approach that first isolates extreme outliers to prevent data skewing and then re-clusters the remaining products to reveal subtle market segments. To quantify risk, a "Waste Score" is developed using a Logistic Regression model that identifies products whose trade signatures are statistically similar to scrap. The findings reveal a consistent four-tier market hierarchy in both Malaysian and global datasets. A key pattern emerged from a comparative analysis: Malaysia's market structure is defined by high-volume bulk commodities, whereas the global market is shaped by high-value capital goods, indicating a unique national specialization. The framework successfully flags finished goods, such as electric generators (HS 8502), that are traded like scrap, providing a targeted list for regulatory scrutiny.

We present E3, an automated review assistant that augments reviewers and engineering teams by identifying decision-relevant technical concerns in research papers. For each concern, E3 reports its nature, its location, its bearing on the contribution, and the analysis or evidence that would resolve it, covering unsupported claims, missing ablations, weak baselines, hidden assumptions, threats to validity, and leakage risks. To evaluate E3 without contamination confounds we adopt an issue-level backtesting protocol: the corpus is restricted to papers postdating the training cutoff of every automated source, and for each paper a meta-judge that observes only anonymised reviews labels every issue-source pair as Caught, Partial, or Missed. Applied to 100 ICLR 2026 papers and 4598 judged issue rows, comparing E3 against the ICLR human reviews and two prompt-matched LLM baselines built on gpt-5.4 from OpenAI and claude-opus-4-6 from Anthropic, with meta-judge gpt-5.5, E3 attains the highest recall on every aggregate metric. Partial-inclusive recall reaches 90.2 percent, which is 15.5 points over GPT, 17.1 points over Claude, and 29.2 points over the human reviews, and strict recall preserves the ordering at 65.8 percent. On concerns raised by the human reviewers, E3 recovers 89.6 percent; on concerns the human reviewers missed it surfaces 1635 additional rows admitted into the judged union, 406 above the next-best source. Corpus, baseline prompts, judge prompt template, and evaluation code are released.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

The detection and clearance of explosive ordnance (EO) continues to be a predominantly manual and high-risk process that can benefit from advances in technology to improve its efficiency and effectiveness. Research on artificial intelligence (AI) for EO detection in clearance operations has grown significantly in recent years. However, this research spans a wide range of fields, making it difficult to gain a comprehensive understanding of current trends and developments. Therefore, this article provides a literature review of academic research on AI for EO detection in clearance operations. It finds that research can be grouped into two main streams: AI for EO object detection and AI for EO risk prediction, with the latter being much less studied than the former. From the literature review, we develop three opportunities for future research. These include a call for renewed efforts in the use of AI for EO risk prediction, the combination of different AI systems and data sources, and novel approaches to improve EO risk prediction performance, such as pattern-based predictions. Finally, we provide a perspective on the future of AI for EO detection in clearance operations. We emphasize the role of traditional machine learning (ML) for this task, the need to dynamically incorporate expert knowledge into the models, and the importance of effectively integrating AI systems with real-world operations.

The objective of this paper is to understand what characteristics and features of clinical data influence physician's decision about ordering laboratory tests or prescribing medications the most. We conduct our analysis on data and decisions extracted from electronic health records of 4486 post-surgical cardiac patients. The summary statistics for 335 different lab order decisions and 407 medication decisions are reported. We show that in many cases, physician's lab-order and medication decisions can be well predicted from a small subset of all features.

The rapid increase of computed tomography (CT) scans and their time-consuming manual analysis have created an urgent need for robust automated analysis techniques in clinical settings. These aim to assist radiologists and help them managing their growing workload. Existing methods typically generate entire reports directly from 3D CT images, without explicitly focusing on observed abnormalities. This unguided approach often results in repetitive content or incomplete reports, failing to prioritize anomaly-specific descriptions. We propose a new anomaly-guided report generation model, which first predicts abnormalities and then generates targeted descriptions for each. Evaluation on a public dataset demonstrates significant improvements in report quality and clinical relevance. We extend our work by conducting an ablation study to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

In this paper, we introduce an event-driven trading strategy that predicts stock movements by detecting corporate events from news articles. Unlike existing models that utilize textual features (e.g., bag-of-words) and sentiments to directly make stock predictions, we consider corporate events as the driving force behind stock movements and aim to profit from the temporary stock mispricing that may occur when corporate events take place. The core of the proposed strategy is a bi-level event detection model. The low-level event detector identifies events' existences from each token, while the high-level event detector incorporates the entire article's representation and the low-level detected results to discover events at the article-level. We also develop an elaborately-annotated dataset EDT for corporate event detection and news-based stock prediction benchmark. EDT includes 9721 news articles with token-level event labels as well as 303893 news articles with minute-level timestamps and comprehensive stock price labels. Experiments on EDT indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms all the baselines in winning rate, excess returns over the market, and the average return on each transaction.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

This research article analyzes the language used in the official statements released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after its scheduled meetings to gain insights into the impact of FOMC official statements on financial markets and economic forecasting. The study reveals that the FOMC is careful to avoid expressing emotion in their sentences and follows a set of templates to cover economic situations. The analysis employs advanced language modeling techniques such as VADER and FinBERT, and a trial test with GPT-4. The results show that FinBERT outperforms other techniques in predicting negative sentiment accurately. However, the study also highlights the challenges and limitations of using current NLP techniques to analyze FOMC texts and suggests the potential for enhancing language models and exploring alternative approaches.

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

To enable quantitative risk assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex and coupled IoT systems, a new epistemological equation is designed and tested though comparative and empirical analysis. The comparative analysis is conducted on national digital strategies, followed by an empirical analysis of cyber risk assessment approaches. The new epistemological analysis approach enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems, which begin to resemble artificial intelligence, and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

We conducted a multi-wavelength analysis of the blazar Mrk\,501, utilizing observations from AstroSat (SXT, LAXPC), Swift-UVOT, and Fermi-LAT during the period August 15, 2016 to March 27, 2022. The resulting multi-wavelength light curve revealed relatively low activity of the source across the electromagnetic spectrum. Notably, logparabola and broken power-law models provided a better fit to the joint X-ray spectra from AstroSat-SXT/LAXPC instruments compared to the power-law model. During the low activity state, the source showed the characteristic harder when brighter trend at the X-ray energies. To gain insights into underlying physical processes responsible for the broadband emission, we performed a detailed broadband spectral analysis using the convolved one-zone leptonic model with different forms of particle distributions such as logparabola (LP), broken power-law (BPL), power-law model with maximum energy (ξ_{max}), and energy-dependent acceleration (EDA) models. Our analysis revealed similar reduced-χ^2 values for the four particle distributions. The LP and EDA models exhibited the lowest jet powers. The correlation analyses conducted for the LP and BPL models revealed that there is a positive correlation between jet power and bulk Lorentz factor. Specifically, in the LP model, jet power proved independent of γ_{min}, whereas in the broken power-law model, jet power decreased with an increase in γ_{min}. The jet power in the LP/EDA particle distribution is nearly 10 percent of the Eddington luminosity of a 10^7 M_odot black hole. This result suggests that the jet could potentially be fueled by accretion processes.

Researchers use Twitter and sentiment analysis to predict Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk. We developed a new dictionary of CVD-related keywords by analyzing emotions expressed in tweets. Tweets from eighteen US states, including the Appalachian region, were collected. Using the VADER model for sentiment analysis, users were classified as potentially at CVD risk. Machine Learning (ML) models were employed to classify individuals' CVD risk and applied to a CDC dataset with demographic information to make the comparison. Performance evaluation metrics such as Test Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 score, Mathew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and Cohen's Kappa (CK) score were considered. Results demonstrated that analyzing tweets' emotions surpassed the predictive power of demographic data alone, enabling the identification of individuals at potential risk of developing CVD. This research highlights the potential of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and ML techniques in using tweets to identify individuals with CVD risks, providing an alternative approach to traditional demographic information for public health monitoring.

In this paper an alternative way of conducting the physics laboratory exercise for determining the adiabatic index of air using the Clement -- Desormes method is proposed. The process of isochoric cooling of air has been studied in terms of the dependence of pressure on time, and hence temperature on time, since it is proportional to pressure at a constant volume and mass of air. A theoretical model of the considered process was also made. The experimental results were processed statistically. The coefficient of determination R^2 and the F-test statistic were calculated and their values indicate a very good agreement between theory and experiment. The analysis of the residuals, however, implies that the model could be further improved through the inclusion of higher order terms.

Earth observation data such as satellite imagery can, when combined with machine learning, have profound impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty through the prediction of living conditions, especially where government-derived economic indicators are either unavailable or potentially untrustworthy. Recent work has progressed in using EO data not only to predict spatial economic outcomes, but also to explore cause and effect, an understanding which is critical for downstream policy analysis. In this review, we first document the growth of interest in EO-ML analyses in the causal space. We then trace the relationship between spatial statistics and EO-ML methods before discussing the four ways in which EO data has been used in causal ML pipelines -- (1.) poverty outcome imputation for downstream causal analysis, (2.) EO image deconfounding, (3.) EO-based treatment effect heterogeneity, and (4.) EO-based transportability analysis. We conclude by providing a workflow for how researchers can incorporate EO data in causal ML analysis going forward.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

The ionosphere electromagnetic activity is a major factor of the quality of satellite telecommunications, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and other vital space applications. Being able to forecast globally the Total Electron Content (TEC) would enable a better anticipation of potential performance degradations. A few studies have proposed models able to predict the TEC locally, but not worldwide for most of them. Thanks to a large record of past TEC maps publicly available, we propose a method based on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to forecast a sequence of global TEC maps consecutive to an input sequence of TEC maps, without introducing any prior knowledge other than Earth rotation periodicity. By combining several state-of-the-art architectures, the proposed approach is competitive with previous works on TEC forecasting while predicting the TEC globally.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Employees of early childhood education and care (ECEC) organisations may experience a wide range of barriers as they attempt to integrate information technology (IT) into their work practices. However, studies within the ECEC organisational literature which attempt to identify and understand these barriers are scant. This literature review is the first to present consolidated findings from the body of knowledge on barriers to the integration of IT within ECEC organisations. In addition to highlighting limitations and gaps in the literature, it proposes a tri-perspective framework to provide for future research to develop a deeper understanding of not only what barriers exist but also how they interrelate and shape the IT integration process and the work practices of ECEC organisational employees.

The growing use of Artificial Intelligence solutions has led to an explosion in image capture and its application in machine learning models. However, the lack of standardization in image quality generates inconsistencies in the results of these models. To mitigate this problem, Optical Character Recognition (OCR) is often used as a preprocessing technique, but it still faces challenges in scenarios with inadequate lighting, low resolution, and perspective distortions. This work aims to explore and evaluate various preprocessing techniques, such as grayscale conversion, CLAHE in RGB, and Bilateral Filter, applied to vehicle license plate recognition. Each technique is analyzed individually and in combination, using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, ROC curve, AUC, and ANOVA, to identify the most effective method. The study uses a dataset of Brazilian vehicle license plates, widely used in OCR applications. The research provides a detailed analysis of best preprocessing practices, offering insights to optimize OCR performance in real-world scenarios.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

This paper presents the observation of four-top-quark (tttt) production in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb^{-1} at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected using the ATLAS detector. Events containing two leptons with the same electric charge or at least three leptons (electrons or muons) are selected. Event kinematics are used to separate signal from background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The observed (expected) significance of the measured tttt signal with respect to the standard model (SM) background-only hypothesis is 6.1 (4.3) standard deviations. The tttt production cross section is measured to be 22.5^{+6.6}_{-5.5} fb, consistent with the SM prediction of 12.0 pm 2.4 fb within 1.8 standard deviations. Data are also used to set limits on the three-top-quark production cross section, being an irreducible background not measured previously, and to constrain the top-Higgs Yukawa coupling and effective field theory operator coefficients that affect tttt production.

Learning complex functions that involve multi-step reasoning poses a significant challenge for standard supervised learning from input-output examples. Chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision, which provides intermediate reasoning steps together with the final output, has emerged as a powerful empirical technique, underpinning much of the recent progress in the reasoning capabilities of large language models. This paper develops a statistical theory of learning under CoT supervision. A key characteristic of the CoT setting, in contrast to standard supervision, is the mismatch between the training objective (CoT risk) and the test objective (end-to-end risk). A central part of our analysis, distinguished from prior work, is explicitly linking those two types of risk to achieve sharper sample complexity bounds. This is achieved via the *CoT information measure* I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), which quantifies the additional discriminative power gained from observing the reasoning process. The main theoretical results demonstrate how CoT supervision can yield significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision. Specifically, it is shown that the sample complexity required to achieve a target E2E error epsilon scales as d/I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), where d is a measure of hypothesis class complexity, which can be much faster than standard d/epsilon rates. Information-theoretic lower bounds in terms of the CoT information are also obtained. Together, these results suggest that CoT information is a fundamental measure of statistical complexity for learning under chain-of-thought supervision.

In the evolving field of corporate sustainability, analyzing unstructured Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reports is a complex challenge due to their varied formats and intricate content. This study introduces an innovative methodology utilizing the "Unstructured Core Library", specifically tailored to address these challenges by transforming ESG reports into structured, analyzable formats. Our approach significantly advances the existing research by offering high-precision text cleaning, adept identification and extraction of text from images, and standardization of tables within these reports. Emphasizing its capability to handle diverse data types, including text, images, and tables, the method adeptly manages the nuances of differing page layouts and report styles across industries. This research marks a substantial contribution to the fields of industrial ecology and corporate sustainability assessment, paving the way for the application of advanced NLP technologies and large language models in the analysis of corporate governance and sustainability. Our code is available at https://github.com/linancn/TianGong-AI-Unstructure.git.

Transformers exhibit impressive capabilities but are often regarded as black boxes due to challenges in understanding the complex nonlinear relationships between features. Interpreting machine learning models is of paramount importance to mitigate risks, and mechanistic interpretability is in particular of current interest as it opens up a window for guiding manual modifications and reverse-engineering solutions. In this work, we introduce contextual decomposition for transformers (CD-T), extending a prior work on CD for RNNs and CNNs, to address mechanistic interpretation computationally efficiently. CD-T is a flexible interpretation method for transformers. It can capture contributions of combinations of input features or source internal components (e.g. attention heads, feed-forward networks) to (1) final predictions or (2) the output of any target internal component. Using CD-T, we propose a novel algorithm for circuit discovery. On a real-world pathology report classification task: we show CD-T distills a more faithful circuit of attention heads with improved computational efficiency (speed up 2x) than a prior benchmark, path patching. As a versatile interpretation method, CD-T also exhibits exceptional capabilities for local interpretations. CD-T is shown to reliably find words and phrases of contrasting sentiment/topic on SST-2 and AGNews datasets. Through human experiments, we demonstrate CD-T enables users to identify the more accurate of two models and to better trust a model's outputs compared to alternative interpretation methods such as SHAP and LIME.

We explore the potential of reactor antineutrino-induced Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) data from the CONUS+ experiment to investigate both the Standard Model (SM) and Beyond Standard Model (BSM) scenarios. Alongside CEνNS, Elastic Neutrino-Electron Scattering (EνES) events are also included in our analysis, enabling more stringent constraints on new physics. Within the SM, we examine the weak mixing angle as a precision test of the electroweak sector. For BSM scenarios, we constrain the parameter space of light mediators arising from neutrino generalized interactions (NGI), while also setting limits on the electromagnetic properties of neutrinos, including their charge radius, millicharge, and magnetic moment.

The continuous growth of the e-commerce industry attracts fraudsters who exploit stolen credit card details. Companies often investigate suspicious transactions in order to retain customer trust and address gaps in their fraud detection systems. However, analysts are overwhelmed with an enormous number of alerts from credit card transaction monitoring systems. Each alert investigation requires from the fraud analysts careful attention, specialized knowledge, and precise documentation of the outcomes, leading to alert fatigue. To address this, we propose a fraud analyst assistant (FAA) framework, which employs multi-modal large language models (LLMs) to automate credit card fraud investigations and generate explanatory reports. The FAA framework leverages the reasoning, code execution, and vision capabilities of LLMs to conduct planning, evidence collection, and analysis in each investigation step. A comprehensive empirical evaluation of 500 credit card fraud investigations demonstrates that the FAA framework produces reliable and efficient investigations comprising seven steps on average. Thus we found that the FAA framework can automate large parts of the workload and help reduce the challenges faced by fraud analysts.

TrueEBSD is an open-source MATLAB program for image alignment and spatial distortion correction of images and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps. We have re-implemented TrueEBSD as an add-on to MTEX, an established toolbox for EBSD data analysis. Spatial alignment enables correlative analysis methods, such as augmenting EBSD orientation maps with data from other imaging modes. The augmented EBSD maps can then be analysed further using MTEX. We demonstrate TrueEBSD on two example case studies: one for measuring Co phase fraction and WC contiguity in a WC-Co composite, and another for determining the relative susceptibility of grain boundaries to void formation in a copper polycrystal. In both examples, the EBSD map was augmented with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) image data. This enabled quantitative crystallographic measurements which would not be possible from analysing the EBSD maps and images separately.

This report is a primarily survey on the chemical nature of some exotic species containing the positively charged muon and the muonic Helium, i.e., the negatively charged muon plus helium nucleus, as exotic isotopes of hydrogen, using the newly developed multi-component quantum theory of atoms in molecules (MC-QTAIM) analysis, employing ab initio non-Born-Oppenhiemer wavefunctions. Accordingly, the "atoms in molecules" analysis performed on various asymmetric exotic isotopomers of hydrogen molecule, recently detected experimentally [Science 331, 448 (2011)], demonstrates that both the exotic isotopes are capable of forming atoms in molecules and retaining the identity of hydrogen atom. Various derived properties of atomic basins containing muonic helium cast no doubt that apart from its short life time, it is a heavier isotope of hydrogen while the properties of basins containing the positively charged muon are more remote from those of the orthodox hydrogen basins, capable of appreciable donation of electrons as well as large charge polarization; however, with some tolerance, they may be categorized also as hydrogen basins though with a smaller electronegativity. All in all, present study also clearly demonstrates that the MC-QTAIM analysis is an efficient approach to decipher the chemical nature of species containing exotic constituents, hard to be elucidated by experimental and/or alternative theoretical schemes.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Generative approaches have significantly influenced Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA), garnering considerable attention. However, existing studies often predict target text components monolithically, neglecting the benefits of utilizing single elements for tuple prediction. In this paper, we introduce Element to Tuple Prompting (E2TP), employing a two-step architecture. The former step focuses on predicting single elements, while the latter step completes the process by mapping these predicted elements to their corresponding tuples. E2TP is inspired by human problem-solving, breaking down tasks into manageable parts, using the first step's output as a guide in the second step. Within this strategy, three types of paradigms, namely E2TP(diet), E2TP(f_1), and E2TP(f_2), are designed to facilitate the training process. Beyond dataset-specific experiments, our paper addresses cross-domain scenarios, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of the approach. By conducting a comprehensive analysis on various benchmarks, we show that E2TP achieves new state-of-the-art results in nearly all cases.

Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.

As a branch of time series forecasting, stock movement forecasting is one of the challenging problems for investors and researchers. Since Transformer was introduced to analyze financial data, many researchers have dedicated themselves to forecasting stock movement using Transformer or attention mechanisms. However, existing research mostly focuses on individual stock information but ignores stock market information and high noise in stock data. In this paper, we propose a novel method using the attention mechanism in which both stock market information and individual stock information are considered. Meanwhile, we propose a novel EMD-based algorithm for reducing short-term noise in stock data. Two randomly selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs) spanning over ten years from US stock markets are used to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed attention-based method. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the proposed attention-based method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/DurandalLee/ACEFormer.

Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) is being used to search for indicators of attacks that might have compromised an enterprise network for a long time without being discovered. To have a more effective analysis, CTI open standards have incorporated descriptive relationships showing how the indicators or observables are related to each other. However, these relationships are either completely overlooked in information gathering or not used for threat hunting. In this paper, we propose a system, called POIROT, which uses these correlations to uncover the steps of a successful attack campaign. We use kernel audits as a reliable source that covers all causal relations and information flows among system entities and model threat hunting as an inexact graph pattern matching problem. Our technical approach is based on a novel similarity metric which assesses an alignment between a query graph constructed out of CTI correlations and a provenance graph constructed out of kernel audit log records. We evaluate POIROT on publicly released real-world incident reports as well as reports of an adversarial engagement designed by DARPA, including ten distinct attack campaigns against different OS platforms such as Linux, FreeBSD, and Windows. Our evaluation results show that POIROT is capable of searching inside graphs containing millions of nodes and pinpoint the attacks in a few minutes, and the results serve to illustrate that CTI correlations could be used as robust and reliable artifacts for threat hunting.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

t-distributed Stochastic Neighborhood Embedding (t-SNE) is a method for dimensionality reduction and visualization that has become widely popular in recent years. Efficient implementations of t-SNE are available, but they scale poorly to datasets with hundreds of thousands to millions of high dimensional data-points. We present Fast Fourier Transform-accelerated Interpolation-based t-SNE (FIt-SNE), which dramatically accelerates the computation of t-SNE. The most time-consuming step of t-SNE is a convolution that we accelerate by interpolating onto an equispaced grid and subsequently using the fast Fourier transform to perform the convolution. We also optimize the computation of input similarities in high dimensions using multi-threaded approximate nearest neighbors. We further present a modification to t-SNE called "late exaggeration," which allows for easier identification of clusters in t-SNE embeddings. Finally, for datasets that cannot be loaded into the memory, we present out-of-core randomized principal component analysis (oocPCA), so that the top principal components of a dataset can be computed without ever fully loading the matrix, hence allowing for t-SNE of large datasets to be computed on resource-limited machines.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

Of late, insurance fraud detection has assumed immense significance owing to the huge financial & reputational losses fraud entails and the phenomenal success of the fraud detection techniques. Insurance is majorly divided into two categories: (i) Life and (ii) Non-life. Non-life insurance in turn includes health insurance and auto insurance among other things. In either of the categories, the fraud detection techniques should be designed in such a way that they capture as many fraudulent transactions as possible. Owing to the rarity of fraudulent transactions, in this paper, we propose a chaotic variational autoencoder (C-VAE to perform one-class classification (OCC) on genuine transactions. Here, we employed the logistic chaotic map to generate random noise in the latent space. The effectiveness of C-VAE is demonstrated on the health insurance fraud and auto insurance datasets. We considered vanilla Variational Auto Encoder (VAE) as the baseline. It is observed that C-VAE outperformed VAE in both datasets. C-VAE achieved a classification rate of 77.9% and 87.25% in health and automobile insurance datasets respectively. Further, the t-test conducted at 1% level of significance and 18 degrees of freedom infers that C-VAE is statistically significant than the VAE.

Automated X-ray inspection is crucial for efficient and unobtrusive security screening in various public settings. However, challenges such as object occlusion, variations in the physical properties of items, diversity in X-ray scanning devices, and limited training data hinder accurate and reliable detection of illicit items. Despite the large body of research in the field, reported experimental evaluations are often incomplete, with frequently conflicting outcomes. To shed light on the research landscape and facilitate further research, a systematic, detailed, and thorough comparative evaluation of recent Deep Learning (DL)-based methods for X-ray object detection is conducted. For this, a comprehensive evaluation framework is developed, composed of: a) Six recent, large-scale, and widely used public datasets for X-ray illicit item detection (OPIXray, CLCXray, SIXray, EDS, HiXray, and PIDray), b) Ten different state-of-the-art object detection schemes covering all main categories in the literature, including generic Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), custom CNN, generic transformer, and hybrid CNN-transformer architectures, and c) Various detection (mAP50 and mAP50:95) and time/computational-complexity (inference time (ms), parameter size (M), and computational load (GFLOPS)) metrics. A thorough analysis of the results leads to critical observations and insights, emphasizing key aspects such as: a) Overall behavior of the object detection schemes, b) Object-level detection performance, c) Dataset-specific observations, and d) Time efficiency and computational complexity analysis. To support reproducibility of the reported experimental results, the evaluation code and model weights are made publicly available at https://github.com/jgenc/xray-comparative-evaluation.

Cryo-electron tomography (Cryo-ET) is a powerful tool in structural biology for 3D visualization of cells and biological systems at resolutions sufficient to identify individual proteins in situ. The measurements are collected by tilting the frozen specimen and exposing it to an electron beam of known dosage. As the biological samples are prone to electron damage, the samples can be exposed to only a limited dosage of electrons, leading to noisy and incomplete measurements. Thus, the reconstructions are noisy and incomplete, leading to the missing wedge problem. Currently, self-supervised learning is used to compensate for this issue. This typically involves, for each volume to recover, training a large 3D UNet on the initial noisy reconstruction, leading to large training time and memory requirements. In this work, we exploit the local nature of the forward model to train a lightweight network using only localized data from the measurements. This design provides flexibility in balancing computational and time requirements while reconstructing the volumes with high accuracy. We observe experimentally that this network can work well on unseen datasets, despite using a network trained on a few measurements.

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, T_C, and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial T_C is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known data sets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid T_C predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random forest model and a k-NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2,500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3,000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations ("descriptors") and regression approaches. A random forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. A random forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-T_C materials and under-predict high-T_C materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-T_C materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.

We introduce C-Pack, a package of resources that significantly advance the field of general Chinese embeddings. C-Pack includes three critical resources. 1) C-MTEB is a comprehensive benchmark for Chinese text embeddings covering 6 tasks and 35 datasets. 2) C-MTP is a massive text embedding dataset curated from labeled and unlabeled Chinese corpora for training embedding models. 3) C-TEM is a family of embedding models covering multiple sizes. Our models outperform all prior Chinese text embeddings on C-MTEB by up to +10% upon the time of the release. We also integrate and optimize the entire suite of training methods for C-TEM. Along with our resources on general Chinese embedding, we release our data and models for English text embeddings. The English models achieve state-of-the-art performance on MTEB benchmark; meanwhile, our released English data is 2 times larger than the Chinese data. All these resources are made publicly available at https://github.com/FlagOpen/FlagEmbedding.

The observations documented in Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) reports play a critical role in describing adversarial behaviors, providing valuable insights for security practitioners to respond to evolving threats. Recent advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in various cybersecurity applications, including CTI report understanding and attack knowledge graph construction. While previous works have proposed benchmarks that focus on the CTI extraction ability of LLMs, the sequential characteristic of adversarial behaviors within CTI reports remains largely unexplored, which holds considerable significance in developing a comprehensive understanding of how adversaries operate. To address this gap, we introduce AttackSeqBench, a benchmark tailored to systematically evaluate LLMs' capability to understand and reason attack sequences in CTI reports. Our benchmark encompasses three distinct Question Answering (QA) tasks, each task focuses on the varying granularity in adversarial behavior. To alleviate the laborious effort of QA construction, we carefully design an automated dataset construction pipeline to create scalable and well-formulated QA datasets based on real-world CTI reports. To ensure the quality of our dataset, we adopt a hybrid approach of combining human evaluation and systematic evaluation metrics. We conduct extensive experiments and analysis with both fast-thinking and slow-thinking LLMs, while highlighting their strengths and limitations in analyzing the sequential patterns in cyber attacks. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a benchmark that advances LLM-driven CTI report understanding and fosters its application in real-world cybersecurity operations. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/Javiery3889/AttackSeqBench .

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an embedding of company stocks, Stock2Vec, which can be easily added to any prediction model that applies to companies with associated stock prices. We describe the process of creating this rich vector representation from stock price fluctuations, and characterize what the dimensions represent. We then conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate this embedding in applied machine learning problems in various business contexts. Our experiment results demonstrate that the four features in the Stock2Vec embedding can readily augment existing cross-company models and enhance cross-company predictions.

This comprehensive study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview large language model across a diverse array of complex reasoning tasks, spanning multiple domains, including computer science, mathematics, natural sciences, medicine, linguistics, and social sciences. Through rigorous testing, o1-preview demonstrated remarkable capabilities, often achieving human-level or superior performance in areas ranging from coding challenges to scientific reasoning and from language processing to creative problem-solving. Key findings include: -83.3% success rate in solving complex competitive programming problems, surpassing many human experts. -Superior ability in generating coherent and accurate radiology reports, outperforming other evaluated models. -100% accuracy in high school-level mathematical reasoning tasks, providing detailed step-by-step solutions. -Advanced natural language inference capabilities across general and specialized domains like medicine. -Impressive performance in chip design tasks, outperforming specialized models in areas such as EDA script generation and bug analysis. -Remarkable proficiency in anthropology and geology, demonstrating deep understanding and reasoning in these specialized fields. -Strong capabilities in quantitative investing. O1 has comprehensive financial knowledge and statistical modeling skills. -Effective performance in social media analysis, including sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. The model excelled particularly in tasks requiring intricate reasoning and knowledge integration across various fields. While some limitations were observed, including occasional errors on simpler problems and challenges with certain highly specialized concepts, the overall results indicate significant progress towards artificial general intelligence.

Endometriosis ultrasound reports are often unstructured free-text documents that require manual abstraction for downstream tasks such as analytics, machine learning model training, and clinical auditing. We present EndoExtract, an on-premise LLM-powered system that extracts structured data from these reports and surfaces interpretive fields for human review. Through contextual inquiry with research assistants, we identified key workflow pain points: asymmetric trust between numerical and interpretive fields, repetitive manual highlighting, fatigue from sustained comparison, and terminology inconsistency across radiologists. These findings informed an interface that surfaces only interpretive fields for mandatory review, automatically highlights source evidence within PDFs, and separates batch extraction from human-paced verification. A formative workshop revealed that EndoExtract supports a shift from field-by-field data entry to supervisory validation, though participants noted risks of over-skimming and challenges in managing missing data.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

This research employs quantitative techniques interpreted through relevant economic theories to analyze a proposed U.S. "Discounted Reciprocal Tariff" structure. Statistical modeling (linear regression) quantifies the policy's consistent 'discounted reciprocity' pattern, which is interpreted using a Game Theory perspective on strategic interaction. Machine learning (K-Means clustering) identifies distinct country typologies based on tariff exposure and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), linking the policy to Economic Complexity theory. The study's primary application focuses on the major coffee exporting sector, utilizing simulation modeling grounded in principles of demand elasticity and substitution to project potential trade flow impacts. Specifically, for coffee, this simulation demonstrates how the proposed tariff differentials can induce significant substitution effects, projecting a potential shift in U.S. import demand away from high-tariff origins toward lower-tariff competitors. This disruption, stemming from the tariffs impacting exporting countries, is projected to ultimately increase coffee prices for consumers in the United States. Findings throughout are contextualized within Political Economy considerations. Overall, the study demonstrates how integrating regression, clustering, and simulation with economic theory exemplified through the coffee sector analysis provides a robust framework for assessing the potential systemic impacts, including consumer price effects, of strategic trade policies.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

A model to investigate Thermally Stimulated Depolarization Current (TSDC) peak parameters using the dipole-dipole interaction concept is proposed by the author in this work. The proposed model describe the (TSDC) peak successfully since it gives a significant peak parameters (i.e. Activation energy (E) and the per-exponential factor (\tau_0) in addition to the dipole-dipole interaction strength parameter (di). Application of this model to determine the peak parameters of polyvinyl chloride(PVC) polymer is presented . The results show how the model fit the experimental thermal sampling data. Finally the results are compared to the well know techniques; the initial rise method (IR), the half width method (HW) in addition to the Cowell and Woods analysis.

While Large Language Models have been used to produce interpretable stock forecasts, they mainly focus on analyzing textual reports but not historical price data, also known as Technical Analysis. This task is challenging as it switches between domains: the stock price inputs and outputs lie in the time-series domain, while the reasoning step should be in natural language. In this work, we introduce Verbal Technical Analysis (VTA), a novel framework that combine verbal and latent reasoning to produce stock time-series forecasts that are both accurate and interpretable. To reason over time-series, we convert stock price data into textual annotations and optimize the reasoning trace using an inverse Mean Squared Error (MSE) reward objective. To produce time-series outputs from textual reasoning, we condition the outputs of a time-series backbone model on the reasoning-based attributes. Experiments on stock datasets across U.S., Chinese, and European markets show that VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy, while the reasoning traces also perform well on evaluation by industry experts.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Table Extraction (TE) consists in extracting tables from PDF documents, in a structured format which can be automatically processed. While numerous TE tools exist, the variety of methods and techniques makes it difficult for users to choose an appropriate one. We propose a novel benchmark for assessing end-to-end TE methods (from PDF to the final table). We contribute an analysis of TE evaluation metrics, and the design of a rigorous evaluation process, which allows scoring each TE sub-task as well as end-to-end TE, and captures model uncertainty. Along with a prior dataset, our benchmark comprises two new heterogeneous datasets of 37k samples. We run our benchmark on diverse models, including off-the-shelf libraries, software tools, large vision language models, and approaches based on computer vision. The results demonstrate that TE remains challenging: current methods suffer from a lack of generalizability when facing heterogeneous data, and from limitations in robustness and interpretability.

The uprising of deep learning methodology and practice in recent years has brought about a severe consequence of increasing carbon footprint due to the insatiable demand for computational resources and power. The field of text analytics also experienced a massive transformation in this trend of monopolizing methodology. In this paper, the original TF-IDF algorithm has been modified, and Clement Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (CTF-IDF) has been proposed for data preprocessing. This paper primarily discusses the effectiveness of classical machine learning techniques in text analytics with CTF-IDF and a faster IRLBA algorithm for dimensionality reduction. The introduction of both of these techniques in the conventional text analytics pipeline ensures a more efficient, faster, and less computationally intensive application when compared with deep learning methodology regarding carbon footprint, with minor compromise in accuracy. The experimental results also exhibit a manifold of reduction in time complexity and improvement of model accuracy for the classical machine learning methods discussed further in this paper.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models