Daily Papers

Policy gradient computes a backward pass for every sample, even though the backward pass is expensive and most samples carry little learning value. The Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) provides a forward-pass signal of learning value: delight, the product of advantage and surprisal (negative log-probability). We introduce the Kondo gate, which compares delight against a compute price and pays for a backward pass only when the sample is worth it, thereby tracing a quality--cost Pareto frontier. In bandits, zero-price gating preserves useful gradient signal while removing perpendicular noise, and delight is a more reliable screening signal than additive combinations of value and surprise. On MNIST and transformer token reversal, the Kondo gate skips most backward passes while retaining nearly all of DG's learning quality, with gains that grow as problems get harder and backward passes become more expensive. Because the gate tolerates approximate delight, a cheap forward pass can screen samples before expensive backpropagation, suggesting a speculative-decoding-for-training paradigm.

A natural intuition about the economics of AI agents is that, because agents can be replicated at very low marginal cost, agent labor may be supplied highly elastically, placing downward pressure on cognitive-labor wages when it closely substitutes for human labor. We argue this framing is wrong in mechanism but partially correct in conclusion, and that the correction matters for both theory and policy. Agents are not labor; they are a production technology that converts compute capital K_c into effective units of cognitive labor L_A. Once this is recognized, the elastic-supply margin that anchors the equilibrium wage migrates from the labor market to the compute capital market. Building on the classic factor-pricing framework mankiw2020, we derive a Compute-Anchored Wage (CAW) bound stating that, on tasks where human and agent-produced cognitive labor are substitutes, the competitive human wage is bounded above by λcdot k cdot r_c, where r_c is the rental rate of compute capital, k is the compute intensity of one effective agent-produced cognitive labor unit, and λ is the relative human-to-agent productivity. We generalize the result through constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregation, separate substitutable from complementary tasks, and discuss factor-share consequences. The conclusion is concise: the price-setter for cognitive labor is no longer the labor market.

Test-time compute has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, this strategy has in turn increased how much users pay cloud-based providers offering LLM-as-a-service, since providers charge users for the amount of test-time compute they use to generate an output. In our work, we show that the market of LLM-as-a-service is socially inefficient: providers have a financial incentive to increase the amount of test-time compute, even if this increase contributes little to the quality of the outputs. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a reverse second-price auction mechanism where providers bid their offered price and (expected) quality for the opportunity to serve a user, and users pay proportionally to the marginal value generated by the winning provider relative to the second-highest bidder. To illustrate and complement our theoretical results, we conduct experiments with multiple instruct models from the Llama and Qwen families, as well as reasoning models distilled from DeepSeek-R1, on math and science benchmark datasets.

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents are increasingly used to plan and execute scientific workflows, yet most research cyberinfrastructure (CI) exposes heterogeneous APIs and implements security models that present barriers for use by agents. We report on our experience using the Model Context Protocol (MCP) as a unifying interface that makes research capabilities discoverable, invokable, and composable. Our approach is pragmatic: we implement thin MCP servers over mature services, including Globus Transfer, Compute, and Search; status APIs exposed by computing facilities; Octopus event fabric; and domain-specific tools such as Garden and Galaxy. We use case studies in computational chemistry, bioinformatics, quantum chemistry, and filesystem monitoring to illustrate how this MCP-oriented architecture can be used in practice. We distill lessons learned and outline open challenges in evaluation and trust for agent-led science.

Recent research across mathematical problem solving, proof assistant programming and multimodal jailbreaking documents a striking finding: when (multimodal) language model tackle a suite of tasks with multiple attempts per task -- succeeding if any attempt is correct -- then the negative log of the average success rate scales a power law in the number of attempts. In this work, we identify an apparent puzzle: a simple mathematical calculation predicts that on each problem, the failure rate should fall exponentially with the number of attempts. We confirm this prediction empirically, raising a question: from where does aggregate polynomial scaling emerge? We then answer this question by demonstrating per-problem exponential scaling can be made consistent with aggregate polynomial scaling if the distribution of single-attempt success probabilities is heavy tailed such that a small fraction of tasks with extremely low success probabilities collectively warp the aggregate success trend into a power law - even as each problem scales exponentially on its own. We further demonstrate that this distributional perspective explains previously observed deviations from power law scaling, and provides a simple method for forecasting the power law exponent with an order of magnitude lower relative error, or equivalently, {sim}2-4 orders of magnitude less inference compute. Overall, our work contributes to a better understanding of how neural language model performance improves with scaling inference compute and the development of scaling-predictable evaluations of (multimodal) language models.

Several published comparisons of variational quantum optimizers time only runs that reach a target loss, or read the verdict at a single target. Either convention could decide whether an optimizer's costlier steps pay off. We measure how much each convention changes verdicts among Adam, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) and quantum natural gradient (QNG), on initializations held out from the selection of settings. We compute the exact metric that preconditions QNG, price every step in circuit evaluations and give every method the same budget. In a median pooled over circuit widths, cost families and a sweep of settings with common misses, SPSA needs more than twice Adam's evaluations to reach a loose target. Dropping the censored runs that miss the target hides this gap. On the global-cost family we hold fixed the settings selected for a strict target. QNG then usually reaches the loose target after Adam but the strict target first. QNG's strict-target lead disappears when the metric's simulator price, linear in the number of parameters, is replaced by an assumed hardware count quadratic in that number. We recommend charging every miss the budget and reporting verdicts across targets.

We consider the obnoxious facility location problem (in which agents prefer the facility location to be far from them) and propose a hierarchy of distance-based proportional fairness concepts for the problem. These fairness axioms ensure that groups of agents at the same location are guaranteed to be a distance from the facility proportional to their group size. We consider deterministic and randomized mechanisms, and compute tight bounds on the price of proportional fairness. In the deterministic setting, we show that our proportional fairness axioms are incompatible with strategyproofness, and prove asymptotically tight epsilon-price of anarchy and stability bounds for proportionally fair welfare-optimal mechanisms. In the randomized setting, we identify proportionally fair and strategyproof mechanisms that give an expected welfare within a constant factor of the optimal welfare. Finally, we prove existence results for two extensions to our model.

Transformer-based language models have recently been at the forefront of active research in text generation. However, these models' advances come at the price of prohibitive training costs, with parameter counts in the billions and compute requirements measured in petaflop/s-decades. In this paper, we investigate transformer-based architectures for improving model performance in a low-data regime by selectively replacing attention layers with feed-forward and quasi-recurrent neural network layers. We test these architectures on the standard Enwik8 and Wikitext-103 corpora. Our results show that our reduced architectures outperform existing models with a comparable number of parameters, and obtain comparable performance to larger models while significantly reducing the number of parameters.

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning is increasingly driven by the refinement of post-training loss functions and alignment strategies. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) remain constrained by static uniformity: uniform prompt sampling and a fixed number of rollouts per prompt. For heterogeneous, heavy-tailed reasoning data, this creates structural inefficiencies that waste compute on already-solved patterns while under-training the long tail of hard problems. To address this, we propose Multi-Adversary Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), an optimization-first framework that moves beyond uniform reasoning models by dynamically adapting the training distribution. We introduce an Online Difficulty Classifier that partitions prompts into dynamic pass@k difficulty groups. We then propose two independent GDRO games for post-training: (1) Prompt-GDRO, which employs an EMA-debiased multiplicative-weights bandit sampler to target the intensive difficulty margin and upweight persistently hard groups without frequency bias; and (2) Rollout-GDRO, which uses a shadow-price controller to reallocate rollouts across groups, maximizing gradient variance reduction on hard tasks under a fixed mean budget (compute-neutral). We provide no-regret guarantees for both controllers and additionally a variance-proxy analysis motivating a square-root optimal rollout allocation for Rollout-GDRO. We validate our framework on the DAPO 14.1k dataset using Qwen3-Base models. Prompt-GDRO and Rollout-GDRO achieve average relative gains of +10.6% and +10.1%, respectively, in pass@8 accuracy across 1.7B, 4B, and 8B scales compared to the GRPO baseline. Qualitative analysis shows an emergent curriculum: the adversaries shift resources to the evolving reasoning frontier, enhancing the reasoning model's performance.

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Transformer-based language models spread FLOPs uniformly across input sequences. In this work we demonstrate that transformers can instead learn to dynamically allocate FLOPs (or compute) to specific positions in a sequence, optimising the allocation along the sequence for different layers across the model depth. Our method enforces a total compute budget by capping the number of tokens (k) that can participate in the self-attention and MLP computations at a given layer. The tokens to be processed are determined by the network using a top-k routing mechanism. Since k is defined a priori, this simple procedure uses a static computation graph with known tensor sizes, unlike other conditional computation techniques. Nevertheless, since the identities of the k tokens are fluid, this method can expend FLOPs non-uniformly across the time and model depth dimensions. Thus, compute expenditure is entirely predictable in sum total, but dynamic and context-sensitive at the token-level. Not only do models trained in this way learn to dynamically allocate compute, they do so efficiently. These models match baseline performance for equivalent FLOPS and wall-clock times to train, but require a fraction of the FLOPs per forward pass, and can be upwards of 50\% faster to step during post-training sampling.

Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study conditional interaction, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching 1/ρ_u, where ρ_u is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: ρ_u is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.

Adversarial robustness evaluations of large language models (LLMs) typically report attack success rate (ASR) under fixed query budgets, implicitly treating all attacks as equally costly. In practice, the computational expense of different attack strategies can vary by orders of magnitude. Consequently, ASR at a fixed budget can obscure the true effort required to jailbreak a model, thereby making it hard to determine whether an attack's cost justifies its payoff to the attacker. We propose a compute-aware evaluation framework based on computational pressure, measured in cumulative floating-point operations (FLOPs), as a proxy for adversarial effort. We introduce risk-compute curves, which map compute budgets to attack risk, and derive two metrics that summarize the average pressure required for a given attack to succeed. Across ten models spanning three families and four different stages in language model training and alignment, evaluated with three attack strategies (gradient-based, iterative refinement, and template-based) on two jailbreak robustness benchmarks, we find: (1) alignment training has non-monotonic effects on compute-space robustness; (2) scaling model size reduces gradient-based attack effectiveness but has limited impact on cheaper template-based attacks; (3) gradient-based attacks optimized on a surrogate model can transfer to a separate target model, providing a way to reduce attacker costs; (4) compute cost varies by up to {approx}5{times} across harm categories within a single model; and (5) safety-aligned RL increases aggregate cost while leaving some categories disproportionately accessible. We release our framework to enable compute-aware risk assessment and evaluation.

Language models are not accurate in numerical problems. Their architecture does not allow for anything less than a probabilistic next word. This paper introduces ComputeGPT: an approach of creating a chat model able to answer computational problems through running on-demand code. ComputeGPT converts each question to relevant code, runs the code, and returns the computed answer as part of the chat. We combine this approach with a local browser-based Python interpretation and fine-tuned prompts in order to achieve state-of-the-art efficiency on numerical problems and provide a suitable front-end and safe environment for the code to be executed in.

Classical compute-optimal scaling laws assume an unbounded supply of fresh pretraining data, yet pretraining is increasingly entering a regime in which compute grows faster than the availability of high-quality data. We propose Compute-Data (CD) scaling laws, a unified framework that bridges compute-optimal scaling, where data scales freely with compute, and data-optimal scaling, where the corpus is fixed while compute can grow without bound. CD scaling extends classical scaling laws by introducing a token-effectiveness function, η, which quantifies the value of a derived token-produced, for example, through multi-epoch repetition or paraphrasing-relative to a fresh token, ranging from a perfect substitute to having no value. We fit η for two data-expansion strategies, multi-epoch repetition and paraphrasing, across model sizes from 14M to 600M parameters using the Dolma-3 corpus. We find that token effectiveness is far from constant: it depends jointly on model size, the tokens-per-parameter ratio, and the amount of derived data, and it saturates as the corpus is expanded. The functional form of η implies diminishing returns when substituting compute for data as either model size or data availability increases. It also partitions training into three operational regimes---compute-bound, data-bound, and model-bound---and shows that classical compute-optimal allocation is suboptimal across most practically relevant settings.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as an effective strategy for improving the performance of large language models. However, existing methods typically allocate compute uniformly across all queries, overlooking variation in query difficulty. To address this inefficiency, we formulate test-time compute allocation as a novel bandit learning problem and propose adaptive algorithms that estimate query difficulty on the fly and allocate compute accordingly. Compared to uniform allocation, our algorithms allocate more compute to challenging queries while maintaining accuracy on easier ones. Among challenging queries, our algorithms further learn to prioritize solvable instances, effectively reducing excessive computing on unsolvable queries. We theoretically prove that our algorithms achieve better compute efficiency than uniform allocation and empirically validate their effectiveness on math and code benchmarks. Specifically, our algorithms achieve up to an 11.10% performance improvement (15.04% relative) on the MATH-500 dataset and up to a 7.41% performance improvement (14.40% relative) on LiveCodeBench.

We introduce Humans-Junior, a 3.8B model that matches GPT-4o on the FACTS Grounding public subset within a pm 5 pp equivalence margin. Results. On Q1--Q500 under identical judges, GPT-4o scores 73.5% (95% CI 69.5--77.2) and Humans-Junior 72.7% (95% CI 68.7--76.5); the paired difference is 0.8 pp (bootstrap 95% CI -3.1 to +4.7; permutation p = 0.72; Cohen's d = 0.023). TOST establishes equivalence at pm 5 pp (not at pm 3 pp). When purchased as managed APIs, Humans-Junior's base model (Phi-3.5-mini-instruct) is approx 19times less expensive than GPT-4o on Microsoft AI Foundry pricing; self-hosted or edge deployments can drive incremental inference cost toward zero. Measured vs estimated pricing sources are tabulated in Appendix E. Method. Our approach combines minimal directed "Exoskeleton Reasoning" scaffolds with behavioral fine-tuning that teaches protocol compliance (epistemic discipline) rather than domain answers. Fine-tuning alone adds little; combined, they synergize (+17.7 pp, p < 0.001) and reduce variance (approx 25%). In prompt-only settings on frontier models (Q1--Q100; non-comparable), directed reasoning improved GPT-4o by +11.8 pp to 85.3% and Gemini-2.5-Pro by +5.0 pp to 93.3% (baseline 88.3%, n = 100); see Section~5. TL;DR. A 3.8B model achieves GPT-4o-level FACTS accuracy (equivalent within pm 5 pp on Q1--Q500). Cloud pricing shows approx 19times lower cost versus GPT-4o, and self-hosted/edge deployments can approach zero marginal cost. Pricing sources are listed in Appendix E. Frontier prompt-only gains (Q1--Q100; non-comparable) and optimized-prompt exploratory results under earlier judges are summarized in Appendix F. Keywords: Small Language Models, Factual Grounding, Directed Reasoning, Fine-Tuning, Model Alignment, Cost-Efficient AI

Large neural networks spend most computation on floating point tensor multiplications. In this work, we find that a floating point multiplier can be approximated by one integer adder with high precision. We propose the linear-complexity multiplication L-Mul algorithm that approximates floating point number multiplication with integer addition operations. The new algorithm costs significantly less computation resource than 8-bit floating point multiplication but achieves higher precision. Compared to 8-bit floating point multiplications, the proposed method achieves higher precision but consumes significantly less bit-level computation. Since multiplying floating point numbers requires substantially higher energy compared to integer addition operations, applying the L-Mul operation in tensor processing hardware can potentially reduce 95% energy cost by element-wise floating point tensor multiplications and 80% energy cost of dot products. We calculated the theoretical error expectation of L-Mul, and evaluated the algorithm on a wide range of textual, visual, and symbolic tasks, including natural language understanding, structural reasoning, mathematics, and commonsense question answering. Our numerical analysis experiments agree with the theoretical error estimation, which indicates that L-Mul with 4-bit mantissa achieves comparable precision as float8_e4m3 multiplications, and L-Mul with 3-bit mantissa outperforms float8_e5m2. Evaluation results on popular benchmarks show that directly applying L-Mul to the attention mechanism is almost lossless. We further show that replacing all floating point multiplications with 3-bit mantissa L-Mul in a transformer model achieves equivalent precision as using float8_e4m3 as accumulation precision in both fine-tuning and inference.

Serving an answer from a large language model requires deciding when to abstain, yet a verifier's ranking accuracy alone does not determine the error rate among served answers. We introduce PriceCheck, which builds a compact family of decision rules from label-free checks such as re-solving a problem. Each check has a price: its agreement rates on correct and incorrect answers and its cost per run. Prices fitted on a small, class-enriched labelled set compose into predictions of a schedule's coverage and cost, guiding which checks to run and when to stop. A calibration test then selects a schedule at a stated selective-risk target. In mathematics, the selected schedules serve 76.1% of answers on average and keep held-out selective risk below 1.5% on all 15 splits. Under the shared testing protocol, PriceCheck serves more answers at that target than reward models, a prompted judge, the generator's confidence and a trained correctness classifier. At matched coverage, it keeps the fewest wrong answers among these scorers. Across 118 diagnostic schedules, price-based coverage predictions have a rank correlation of 0.97 with observed coverage. These results show that choosing how checks are combined and stopped matters alongside how well a verifier ranks answers. Code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/PriceCheck.

Reasoning LLMs show improved performance with longer chains of thought. However, recent work has highlighted their tendency to overthink, continuing to revise answers even after reaching the correct solution. We quantitatively confirm this inefficiency from the distribution dynamics perspective by tracking Pass@1 for answers averaged over a large number of rollouts and find the model often begins to always produce the correct answer early in the reasoning, making extra reasoning tokens wasteful. To detect and prevent overthinking, we propose a simple and inexpensive novel signal, Entropy After </Think> (EAT), for monitoring and deciding whether to exit reasoning early. By appending a stop thinking token (</think>) and monitoring the entropy of the following token as the model reasons, we obtain a trajectory that decreases and stabilizes when Pass@1 plateaus; thresholding its variance under an exponential moving average yields a practical stopping rule. Importantly, our approach enables adaptively allocating compute based on the EAT trajectory, allowing us to spend compute in a more efficient way compared with fixing the token budget for all questions. Empirically, on MATH500 and AIME2025, EAT reduces token usage by 12 - 22% without harming accuracy. EAT also remains effective in black box settings where logits from the reasoning model are not accessible, and EAT is computed with proxy models: We verified the feasibility via early stopping Llama 70B with a 1.5B model and Claude 3.7 with a local 4B model.

The term GreenAI refers to a novel approach to Deep Learning, that is more aware of the ecological impact and the computational efficiency of its methods. The promoters of GreenAI suggested the use of Floating Point Operations (FLOPs) as a measure of the computational cost of Neural Networks; however, that measure does not correlate well with the energy consumption of hardware equipped with massively parallel processing units like GPUs or TPUs. In this article, we propose a simple refinement of the formula used to compute floating point operations for convolutional layers, called {\alpha}-FLOPs, explaining and correcting the traditional discrepancy with respect to different layers, and closer to reality. The notion of {\alpha}-FLOPs relies on the crucial insight that, in case of inputs with multiple dimensions, there is no reason to believe that the speedup offered by parallelism will be uniform along all different axes.

Test-time compute scaling is a primary driver of performance in large reasoning models (LRMs), but extreme inefficiency bounds current approaches, shifting the critical question from how much compute to spend, to where to allocate it. We formalize test-time reasoning as a constrained compute allocation problem over partial trajectories. Under a fixed hardware budget, existing paradigms fail to actively allocate the compute to the most promising partial progress: traditional parallel sampling treats traces independently and induces severe memory bottlenecks, while subtractive pruning starves hardware and fails to actively and sufficiently shift the output distribution. To overcome this dichotomy, we introduce Gambit, an inference algorithm that executes thought-level beam search. By periodically pruning unpromising trajectories and immediately branching from high-quality prefixes, Gambit dynamically concentrates compute onto the most promising reasoning traces via a light-weight scorer probing hidden states while maintaining continuous high hardware utilization. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate that Gambit strictly dominates existing baselines. Under identical hardware constraints, our method yields up to a +6.7\% absolute accuracy gain on HMMT-24 and +3.3\% on AIME-25 over pruning baselines, delivers >2times higher throughput on trace completion, and reduces total token consumption by up to 68.5\% relative to standard parallel sampling.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a key ingredient for enabling large language models (LLMs) to solve difficult problems, but comes with high latency and inference cost. We introduce sleep-time compute, which allows models to "think" offline about contexts before queries are presented: by anticipating what queries users might ask and pre-computing useful quantities, we can significantly reduce the compute requirements at test-time. To demonstrate the efficacy of our method, we create modified versions of two reasoning tasks - Stateful GSM-Symbolic and Stateful AIME. We find that sleep-time compute can reduce the amount of test-time compute needed to achieve the same accuracy by ~ 5x on Stateful GSM-Symbolic and Stateful AIME and that by scaling sleep-time compute we can further increase accuracy by up to 13% on Stateful GSM-Symbolic and 18% on Stateful AIME. Furthermore, we introduce Multi-Query GSM-Symbolic, which extends GSM-Symbolic by including multiple related queries per context. By amortizing sleep-time compute across related queries about the same context using Multi-Query GSM-Symbolic, we can decrease the average cost per query by 2.5x. We then conduct additional analysis to understand when sleep-time compute is most effective, finding the predictability of the user query to be well correlated with the efficacy of sleep-time compute. Finally, we conduct a case-study of applying sleep-time compute to a realistic agentic SWE task.

Developers and consumers increasingly choose reasoning language models (RLMs) based on their listed API prices. However, how accurately do these prices reflect actual inference costs? We conduct the first systematic study of this question, evaluating 8 frontier RLMs across 9 diverse tasks covering competition math, science QA, code generation, and multi-domain reasoning. We uncover the pricing reversal phenomenon: in 21.8% of model-pair comparisons, the model with a lower listed price actually incurs a higher total cost, with reversal magnitude reaching up to 28x. For example, Gemini 3 Flash's listed price is 78% cheaper than GPT-5.2's, yet its actual cost across all tasks is 22% higher. We trace the root cause to vast heterogeneity in thinking token consumption: on the same query, one model may use 900% more thinking tokens than another. In fact, removing thinking token costs reduces ranking reversals by 70% and raises the rank correlation (Kendall's τ ) between price and cost rankings from 0.563 to 0.873. We further show that per-query cost prediction is fundamentally difficult: repeated runs of the same query yield thinking token variation up to 9.7x, establishing an irreducible noise floor for any predictor. Our findings demonstrate that listed API pricing is an unreliable proxy for actual cost, calling for cost-aware model selection and transparent per-request cost monitoring.

Contemporary on-chain artificial intelligence (AI) encounters an intractable Von Neumann memory and latency wall. Storing static floating-point neural weight matrices inside Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) storage costs millions of gas, rendering direct on-chain inference impossible. While Zero-Knowledge Machine Learning (ZK-ML) offloads matrix tensor multiplications to off-chain provers, it introduces fatal constraints: 10 to 300 seconds of SNARK proving latency and 250,000 to 500,000 gas per proof verification. Because decentralized finance (DeFi) exploits - such as uncollateralized flash-loan attacks, predatory sandwich MEV, and toxic loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) flow - occur atomically inside a single block, ZK-ML oracles cannot react in time. Here, we present Werracle, a production-grade, zero-storage on-chain AI decision oracle fitting inside a single 32-byte EVM storage slot (bytes32). Leveraging foundational procedural Mandelbrot escape dynamics (z_{n+1} = z_n^2 + c) established by Dagli et al. (arXiv:2609.25498), Werracle derives continuous non-linear decision hyperplanes from a 24-byte coordinate triplet Theta = (c_x, c_y, zoom). Implemented in pure Solidity bytecode using fixed-point Q16.16 arithmetic (WerrMath.sol), Werracle evaluates a 16-point Pareto micro-grid in only 21,438 gas (under 0.0005 USD on Layer-2 rollups like Base and Arbitrum) with sub-millisecond execution latency. We demonstrate real-world DeFi efficacy via WerracleFeeHook.sol, a Uniswap v4 dynamic swap fee governor that measures orderbook turbulence on-the-fly and atomically adjusts liquidity provider fees between 0.05% and 0.50%. The protocol is formally verified against a 1,000-test cryptographically sealed deterministic verification suite (100.0% pass rate) with telemetry permanently disabled, operating live on a dedicated EVM devnet sandbox (Chain ID 4242).

An AI system can produce more economically valuable work while delivering less value for the energy it consumes. We therefore ask: How much economic value does an AI system create per unit of energy consumed? We formalize economic value in two ways: (1) net dollar value, the output's dollar value minus AI-system execution cost, and (2) time saving, the expert's completion time minus the AI system's completion time. Dividing each by measured end-to-end energy yields Net Value per Joule (NVJ) and Time Saving per Joule (TSJ), reported in USD/MJ and hours/MJ. We study 220 public GDPval tasks across 44 occupations, serving five open-weight models locally and evaluating four accelerator types. First, the occupation groups where AI systems succeed most often, deliver the greatest dollar value, or save the most time do not necessarily provide the greatest economic return per joule. For example, among the tested tasks, engineering work delivers about 10% more net dollar value per task than software development. Yet software development delivers about 27% more net value per joule. Second, GLM 5.2 delivers the highest average net dollar value, at $72.27 per task using 0.430 MJ, equivalent in energy to about four hours of active laptop use. By contrast, Gemma 4 31B delivers 56% of that net dollar value using just 23% of the energy, achieving approximately 2.5 times the NVJ and 2.8 times the TSJ. Third, across four single-accelerator deployments, Qwen3.6-27B's NVJ varies by a factor of 4.32 and TSJ by 9.27, with B200 leading both. Additionally, one and eight H100s deliver similar net dollar value, but eight reduce completion time by 22% at 3.24 times the energy. Our framework makes output value and expert time saving under an energy budget explicit objectives for improving models, accelerators, and software, while offering a new basis for assessing AI's potential economic effect on occupational work.

Serving Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for AI-powered applications but demands substantial computational resources, particularly in memory bandwidth and computational throughput. Low-precision computation has emerged as a key technique to improve efficiency while reducing resource consumption. Existing approaches for generating low-precision kernels are limited to weight bit widths that are powers of two and suffer from suboptimal performance due to high-level GPU programming abstractions. These abstractions restrict critical optimizations, such as fine-grained register management and optimized memory access patterns, which are essential for efficient low-precision computations. In this paper, we introduce a virtual machine (VM) designed for General-Purpose GPU (GPGPU) computing, enabling support for low-precision data types with arbitrary bit widths while maintaining GPU programmability. The proposed VM features a thread-block-level programming model, a hierarchical memory space, a novel algebraic layout system, and extensive support for diverse low-precision data types. VM programs are compiled into highly efficient GPU programs with automatic vectorization and instruction selection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our VM efficiently supports a full spectrum of low-precision data types, and outperforms state-of-the-art low-precision kernels on their supported types. Compared to existing compilers like Triton and Ladder, as well as hand-optimized kernels such as QuantLLM and Marlin, our VM achieves performance improvements of 1.75x, 2.61x, 1.29x and 1.03x, respectively.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Automated code generation is becoming an important tool in quantitative finance, where large language models can generate option pricing implementations directly from mathematical model specifications. Validating such implementations, however, requires considerably more than conventional software testing: numerical pricing methods must remain mathematically consistent, numerically stable, and reliable across a wide range of model parameters. We introduce RIDGE, an autonomous validation framework in which generated pricing implementations are subjected to structured no-arbitrage tests, stress tests, benchmark comparisons, and consistency checks. Validation evidence is interpreted diagnostically, while the resulting knowledge is accumulated in a repository and reused across models and successive validation iterations. This enables systematic refinement of both the pricing implementation and the validation methodology. The framework is applied to five stochastic volatility models. Across these studies, all detected implementation defects are removed and, in two cases, the validation process itself leads to new semi-analytic pricing methodologies. The supplementary material is available in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/ShQiangLiu/ridge.

Test-time compute can improve mathematical reasoning, but can short-budget runs predict how mathematical reasoning scales with additional compute? We introduce a Discovery--Execution (DE) framework that predicts the aggregate held-out scaling curves through a convolution of strategy discovery and conditional execution. From independent short-budget attempts and oracle-sketch-conditioned runs, the framework estimates cumulative success along held-out reasoning trajectories under alternate compute allocations. We evaluate four models on 35 fresh Olympiad problems and non-geometry problems from IMO-ProofBench Advanced. Under the DE framework, near-saturated execution predicts geometric scaling, as observed for the GPT models. For Claude Opus 4.8, incorporating measured execution substantially improves held-out forecasts over geometric extrapolation across one- and two-arm allocations. As a secondary application, regularized DE (R-DE) decisions to continue or restart yield lower average regret than the best model-specific retrospective policy. Together, these results show that measuring conditional execution provides information about longer reasoning that short-budget success rates do not always capture.

We present a methodology to price options and portfolios of options on a gate-based quantum computer using amplitude estimation, an algorithm which provides a quadratic speedup compared to classical Monte Carlo methods. The options that we cover include vanilla options, multi-asset options and path-dependent options such as barrier options. We put an emphasis on the implementation of the quantum circuits required to build the input states and operators needed by amplitude estimation to price the different option types. Additionally, we show simulation results to highlight how the circuits that we implement price the different option contracts. Finally, we examine the performance of option pricing circuits on quantum hardware using the IBM Q Tokyo quantum device. We employ a simple, yet effective, error mitigation scheme that allows us to significantly reduce the errors arising from noisy two-qubit gates.

During early optimization passes, compilers must make predictions for machine-dependent characteristics such as execution unit utilization, number of register spills, latency, throughput etc. to generate better code. Often a hand-written static/analytical hardware cost model is built into the compiler. However, the need for more sophisticated and varied predictions has become more pronounced with the development of deep learning compilers which need to optimize dataflow graphs. Such compilers usually employ a much higher level MLIR form as an IR representation before lowering to traditional LLVM-IR. A static/analytical cost model in such a scenario is cumbersome and error prone as the opcodes represent very high level algebraic/arithmetic operations. Hence, we develop a machine learning-based cost model for high-level MLIR which can predict different target variables of interest such as CPU/GPU/xPU utilization, instructions executed, register usage etc. By considering the incoming MLIR as a text input a la NLP models we can apply well-known techniques from modern NLP research to help predict hardware characteristics more accurately. We expect such precise ML-driven hardware cost models to guide our deep learning compiler in graph level optimizations around operator fusion, local memory allocation, kernel scheduling etc. as well as in many kernel-level optimizations such as loop interchange, LICM and unroll. We report early work-in -progress results of developing such models on high-level MLIR representing dataflow graphs emitted by Pytorch/Tensorflow-like frameworks as well as lower-level dialects like affine. We show that these models can provide reasonably good estimates with low error bounds for various hardware characteristics of interest and can be a go-to mechanism for hardware cost modelling in the future.

The widespread adoption of machine learning algorithms necessitates hardware acceleration to ensure efficient performance. This acceleration relies on custom matrix engines that operate on full or reduced-precision floating-point arithmetic. However, conventional floating-point implementations can be power hungry. This paper proposes a method to improve the energy efficiency of the matrix engines used in machine learning algorithm acceleration. Our approach leverages approximate normalization within the floating-point multiply-add units as a means to reduce their hardware complexity, without sacrificing overall machine-learning model accuracy. Hardware synthesis results show that this technique reduces area and power consumption roughly by 16% and 13% on average for Bfloat16 format. Also, the error introduced in transformer model accuracy is 1% on average, for the most efficient configuration of the proposed approach.

Pre-training is notoriously compute-intensive and academic researchers are notoriously under-resourced. It is, therefore, commonly assumed that academics can't pre-train models. In this paper, we seek to clarify this assumption. We first survey academic researchers to learn about their available compute and then empirically measure the time to replicate models on such resources. We introduce a benchmark to measure the time to pre-train models on given GPUs and also identify ideal settings for maximizing training speed. We run our benchmark on a range of models and academic GPUs, spending 2,000 GPU-hours on our experiments. Our results reveal a brighter picture for academic pre-training: for example, although Pythia-1B was originally trained on 64 GPUs for 3 days, we find it is also possible to replicate this model (with the same hyper-parameters) in 3x fewer GPU-days: i.e. on 4 GPUs in 18 days. We conclude with a cost-benefit analysis to help clarify the trade-offs between price and pre-training time. We believe our benchmark will help academic researchers conduct experiments that require training larger models on more data. We fully release our codebase at: https://github.com/apoorvkh/academic-pretraining.

Serverless computing provides automatic resource management and pay-per-use execution, but effective autoscaling remains challenging because of dynamic workloads, cold-start latency, and dependencies among functions. We present a dependency-aware autoscaling framework that integrates graph-based bottleneck identification, short-term workload forecasting, multi-model consensus, and cost-aware scaling control. Serverless applications are represented as directed dependency graphs, and structurally important functions are identified using weighted degree centrality. Resource demand is predicted using lightweight MLP, LSTM, and CNN models. Their outputs are combined through a performance-weighted probabilistic ensemble inspired by Bayesian model averaging. The controller further incorporates cold-start awareness and cost comparison to select among scale-up, scale-down, and hold actions. Experiments using real workload traces show that supervised forecasting substantially outperforms unsupervised clustering for autoscaling decision generation. The proposed ensemble achieves 99.88 percent prediction accuracy and reduces prediction error compared with representative hybrid forecasting methods. Evaluations across multiple cloud pricing models also demonstrate consistent infrastructure cost reductions while maintaining performance targets. The results show that combining dependency analysis, multi-expert forecasting, and cost-aware control provides a robust and practical solution for serverless autoscaling.

Contemporary neural inference architectures rely on dense floating-point weight matrices stored in high-bandwidth memory (VRAM), incurring severe memory-wall bottlenecks and preventing native execution inside deterministic virtual machines like the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). Verifying termination and arithmetic invariants for recursive dynamical systems over continuous domains is generally undecidable in the Blum-Shub-Smale model. Here, we present the formal verification and bare-metal empirical validation of WERR (Waves & Errors) and Phase III Orbital Error Dynamics (OED), a non-tensor decision paradigm that procedurally synthesizes non-linear decision boundaries on demand from a 24-byte coordinate seed Θ= (c_x, c_y, zoom) along the boundary of the Mandelbrot set (partialM). By projecting the recurrence z_{n+1} = z_n^2 + c onto the modular residue ring Z/9Z and the fixed-point domain Q_{16.16}, we establish ten machine-verified theorems in Lean 4 (v4.34.1) with Mathlib4 and zero unproven conjectures (sorry): proving I_3 = {0,3,6} subset Z/9Z ideal closure, universal fuel-bounded halting (le 9 and le 12 steps), absence of Q_{16.16} square overflow below 2^{63}-1, non-constant boundary escape sensitivity, and a parametric EVM gas bound (le 22,557 le 24,000 gas). Evaluated on a 40-core Dual Intel Xeon server, the vectorized 36-iteration CPU kernel processes 100,000 decisions in 6.49 s (15,397 decisions/s, 0 Bytes VRAM, 15.15x speedup), while a sigmoidal outlier gate suppresses 100.00% of adversarial spikes while preserving 89.60% of clean baseline signals.

Algorithm learning is a core problem in artificial intelligence with significant implications on automation level that can be achieved by machines. Recently deep learning methods are emerging for synthesizing an algorithm from its input-output examples, the most successful being the Neural GPU, capable of learning multiplication. We present several improvements to the Neural GPU that substantially reduces training time and improves generalization. We introduce a new technique - hard nonlinearities with saturation costs- that has general applicability. We also introduce a technique of diagonal gates that can be applied to active-memory models. The proposed architecture is the first capable of learning decimal multiplication end-to-end.

While scaling test-time compute can substantially improve model performance, existing approaches either rely on static compute allocation or sample from fixed generation distributions. In this work, we introduce a test-time compute allocation framework that jointly adapts where computation is spent and how generation is performed. Our method begins with a warm-up phase that identifies easy queries and assembles an initial pool of question-response pairs from the test set itself. An adaptive phase then concentrates further computation on unresolved queries while reshaping their generation distributions through evolving in-context demonstrations -- conditioning each generation on successful responses from semantically related queries rather than resampling from a fixed distribution. Experiments across math, coding, and reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing baselines while consuming substantially less inference-time compute.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Large neural networks are increasingly deployed with 1-4 bit weights and 16- or 32-bit activations, yet their dot products still use one multiplier per element. We show that a length-n dot product with k-bit weight codes can be computed with n+2^k additions and at most 2^k decodes and 2^k multiplications. Each weight code is used directly as an address offset that selects one of 2^k accumulators; each activation is added into the selected accumulator; and the accumulated sums are decoded and multiplied only once, at the end, in a fused decode-and-multiply step. The decoded weight vector is never formed. The refactoring is exact for integer arithmetic, works with integer or floating-point operands and with arbitrary, including nonlinear, decoders, and extends to group-wise scales and to matrix and tensor products. The multiplier count falls by n/2^k, while total arithmetic energy improves by a smaller, bounded factor that we quantify with a cost model. We describe a scatter-accumulate processing element (SA-PE) that replaces the MAC unit in a weight-stationary systolic array, with a load/stream/reduce/drain schedule in which a small, time-shareable multiplier runs only 2^k times per tile. Because decoded weights are not stored, local weight memory shrinks by up to w_d/k for w_d-bit decoded weights. An RTL implementation synthesized for FPGA and compared with a matched MAC array shows that an unshared SA-PE is larger than a MAC PE, and that the saving appears when the reduction multiplier is shared across PEs. Software models confirm exact integer equivalence and floating-point error no worse than the conventional pipeline. We do not claim the underlying identity is new, and we discuss related work on weight sharing and lookup-based kernels.

The costs of training frontier AI models have grown dramatically in recent years, but there is limited public data on the magnitude and growth of these expenses. This paper develops a detailed cost model to address this gap, estimating training costs using three approaches that account for hardware, energy, cloud rental, and staff expenses. The analysis reveals that the amortized cost to train the most compute-intensive models has grown precipitously at a rate of 2.4x per year since 2016 (95% CI: 2.0x to 3.1x). For key frontier models, such as GPT-4 and Gemini, the most significant expenses are AI accelerator chips and staff costs, each costing tens of millions of dollars. Other notable costs include server components (15-22%), cluster-level interconnect (9-13%), and energy consumption (2-6%). If the trend of growing development costs continues, the largest training runs will cost more than a billion dollars by 2027, meaning that only the most well-funded organizations will be able to finance frontier AI models.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

LLM inference is still evaluated mainly as a model or software problem: accuracy, latency, throughput, and hardware utilization. This is incomplete. At deployment scale, the relevant output is a quality-conditioned token produced under joint constraints from effective compute, delivered data-center power, cooling capacity, PUE, and utilization. We argue that the ML community should treat inference as energy-to-token production. We formalize this view with a dimensionally consistent Token Production Function in which token rate is bounded by both compute-per-token and energy-per-token ceilings. Listed API prices vary by over an order of magnitude across providers, but we use price dispersion only as directional motivation, not as causal evidence of marginal cost. The core physical question is instead: under fixed quality and service targets, when does the binding constraint move from theoretical peak compute toward delivered power, cooling, and operational efficiency? Under this framing, system optimizations -- latent KV-cache compression, sparse or heavily compressed attention, quantization, routing, and difficulty-adaptive reasoning -- are not merely local engineering tricks. They are energy-to-token levers because they reduce FLOPs/token, joules/token, memory traffic, or utilization losses under fixed (q^{*},s^{*}). We therefore call for inference papers and benchmarks to report Joules/token, active binding constraint, PUE-adjusted delivered power, and utilization-adjusted token output alongside accuracy and latency.

It is now a common business practice to buy access to large language model (LLM) inference rather than self-host, because of significant upfront hardware infrastructure and energy costs. However, as a buyer, there is no mechanism to verify the authenticity of the advertised service including the serving hardware platform, e.g. that it is actually being served using an NVIDIA H100. Furthermore, there are reports suggesting that model providers may deliver models that differ slightly from the advertised ones, often to make them run on less expensive hardware. That way, a client pays premium for a capable model access on more expensive hardware, yet ends up being served by a (potentially less capable) cheaper model on cheaper hardware. In this paper we introduce \textbf{hardware and software platform inference (HSPI)} -- a method for identifying the underlying architecture and software stack of a (black-box) machine learning model solely based on its input-output behavior. Our method leverages the inherent differences of various architectures and compilers to distinguish between different types and software stacks. By analyzing the numerical patterns in the model's outputs, we propose a classification framework capable of accurately identifying the used for model inference as well as the underlying software configuration. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of inferring type from black-box models. We evaluate HSPI against models served on different real hardware and find that in a white-box setting we can distinguish between different s with between 83.9% and 100% accuracy. Even in a black-box setting we are able to achieve results that are up to three times higher than random guess accuracy.

This study explores Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents for real-world tasks, including freelance software development. This work presents a new benchmark that evaluates LLMs on freelance programming and data analysis tasks derived from economic data. We construct the benchmark using synthetic tasks created from a Kaggle Freelancer dataset of job postings, with all job prices standardized to USD (median fixed-project price around 250, and an average of 306). Each task is accompanied by structured input-output test cases and an estimated price tag, enabling automated correctness checking and a monetary performance valuation. This approach is inspired by OpenAI's recent SWE-Lancer benchmark (1,400 real Upwork tasks worth 1M total). Still, our framework simplifies evaluation using programmatically testable tasks and predicted price values, making it highly scalable and repeatable. On this benchmark, we evaluate four modern LLMs - Claude 3.5 Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen 2.5, and Mistral. We report each model's accuracy (task success rate and test-case pass rate) and the total "freelance earnings" it achieves (sum of prices of solved tasks). Our results show that Claude 3.5 Haiku performs best, earning approximately 1.52 million USD, followed closely by GPT-4o-mini at 1.49 million, then Qwen 2.5 (1.33M) and Mistral ($0.70M). We analyze the distribution of errors per task and observe that the strongest models solve the most tasks and rarely fail completely on any project. We discuss the implications of these results for the feasibility of AI as a freelance developer, the advantages and limitations of our automated benchmark approach, and the gap between performance on structured tasks versus the true complexity of real-world freelance jobs.

Computing power, or "compute," is crucial for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. As a result, governments and companies have started to leverage compute as a means to govern AI. For example, governments are investing in domestic compute capacity, controlling the flow of compute to competing countries, and subsidizing compute access to certain sectors. However, these efforts only scratch the surface of how compute can be used to govern AI development and deployment. Relative to other key inputs to AI (data and algorithms), AI-relevant compute is a particularly effective point of intervention: it is detectable, excludable, and quantifiable, and is produced via an extremely concentrated supply chain. These characteristics, alongside the singular importance of compute for cutting-edge AI models, suggest that governing compute can contribute to achieving common policy objectives, such as ensuring the safety and beneficial use of AI. More precisely, policymakers could use compute to facilitate regulatory visibility of AI, allocate resources to promote beneficial outcomes, and enforce restrictions against irresponsible or malicious AI development and usage. However, while compute-based policies and technologies have the potential to assist in these areas, there is significant variation in their readiness for implementation. Some ideas are currently being piloted, while others are hindered by the need for fundamental research. Furthermore, naive or poorly scoped approaches to compute governance carry significant risks in areas like privacy, economic impacts, and centralization of power. We end by suggesting guardrails to minimize these risks from compute governance.

The inference cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) has become a critical factor in determining their commercial viability and widespread adoption. This paper introduces a quantitative ``economics of inference'' framework, treating the LLM inference process as a compute-driven intelligent production activity. We analyze its marginal cost, economies of scale, and quality of output under various performance configurations. Based on empirical data from WiNEval-3.0, we construct the first ``LLM Inference Production Frontier,'' revealing three principles: diminishing marginal cost, diminishing returns to scale, and an optimal cost-effectiveness zone. This paper not only provides an economic basis for model deployment decisions but also lays an empirical foundation for the future market-based pricing and optimization of AI inference resources.

Resource constraints increasingly determine what can be trained, fine-tuned, and deployed in large language models (LLMs), yet efficiency is often studied through isolated techniques rather than as an interacting system of limits. This survey adopts a constraint-centric perspective and organizes recent progress around three coupled bottlenecks: data efficiency (what to train on), memory efficiency (how to fit training), and compute budget awareness (when and where to spend FLOPs). On the data axis, we review selection and pruning methods that maximize learning per token, ranging from scalable proxy signals based on learning dynamics to gradient- and influence-based scoring, as well as difficulty-aware and curriculum-style strategies. We highlight emerging evidence that different notions of good data dominate in different regimes, implying that optimal subsets depend on the task objective and resource budget rather than being universal. On the systems side, we show that GPU memory, not raw compute, is often the dominant bottleneck in fine-tuning, and that effective scaling requires jointly reducing weight storage, optimizer states, and activation memory rather than optimizing any single component in isolation. Beyond memory, we frame training and inference as compute-governed processes in which optimization, data selection, and decoding must explicitly account for finite FLOP budgets. We review evidence for compute-optimal allocation and stopping rules, where computation should be halted or reallocated once marginal performance gains fall below a budget-dependent threshold. Together, these results unify compute-aware data selection, scaling laws, and adaptive inference under a common principle of resource-conditioned decision-making.

Language model pretraining has become almost synonymous with prohibitive cost, placing it out of reach for much of the academic and open-source communities. Although strong open-source efforts already exist, including open-weight models and open-source training recipes, a cost-efficient, hardware-accessible, and open-source pretraining recipe has long been missing. Even at a small scale, training Llama-3.2-3B costs over \1.5M, and reproducing SmolLM3-3B needs over 700K. In this report, we present an open pretraining recipe designed to lower this barrier. Using this recipe, we train a collection of Puro-2B models from scratch on up to 1.4 trillion tokens with FP8 precision on consumer-grade RTX 5090 GPUs. The models in the collection differ in token budgets and selected recipe variants. Our best model is trained at a compute cost of less than \6.9K and approaches Qwen2.5-1.5B performance under our evaluation protocol. This cost efficiency is enabled by a combination of approaches, including hardware selection, low-precision training, hyperball optimization, curriculum model averaging, and the data recipe. Beyond the recipe itself, we provide two additional results. First, across the Puro-2B collection, we derive a Puro Cost Scaling Law that relates training cost to average model performance; the fitted law suggests that about 4.4K, less than \$5,090, is sufficient to reach the performance of Qwen2-1.5B. Second, as an end-to-end case study, we examine how pretraining data curricula shape downstream performance after post-training. Such controlled studies are enabled by having access to the full pretraining pipeline rather than model weights alone. We release the full training recipe for Puro-2B, including data, code, and model weights under Apache 2.0 at https://huggingface.co/collections/thu-pacman/puro-2b.

Reasoning language models increasingly use test-time compute to improve performance, but existing evaluations typically study this compute one question at a time. Yet when multiple problems share an end-to-end cost or latency constraint, models must decide how to divide limited inference compute among them. We introduce an exam-style evaluation framework for studying this setting, in which a model must distribute one shared token budget across questions with different difficulty and point values to maximize its total score. Across several open and frontier reasoning models, we find that models fail to allocate a shared budget strategically across questions of varying difficulties and values. Models behave largely as greedy sequential solvers: they prioritize questions by presentation order, front-load effort on early questions, and remain insensitive to value, with these tendencies becoming more pronounced as the number of questions grows. Explicit planning prompts spread compute more evenly but do not produce value- or difficulty-aware prioritization. The same behavioral pattern extends from mathematical to code reasoning. These findings establish global budget allocation as a distinct capability that is not captured by conventional per-question evaluation and remains a challenge for current reasoning models.

Replacing one LLM agent with a collaborating team can raise accuracy, but whether scaling the team helps, and which architecture to scale, is unclear. Sweeping eight agent orchestration architectures across five instruction-tuned 7-9B models, five short-answer benchmarks, and an executable-code benchmark up to 30 calls, we find that the returns to team scaling are sharply task-dependent: from three to thirty calls accuracy rises by up to 17 points on the two arithmetic word-problem benchmarks (GSM8K, GSMHard) but by at most four on ARC, GPQA, and MMLU, for every architecture, a split the usual task-averaged number conceals. Proposer-Critic captures the arithmetic gains, scaling steepest and, in aggregate, surpassing every other architecture at the largest budget (item-clustered intervals exclude zero), though it ranks among the weakest elsewhere, and no architecture wins across tasks. We explain these trajectories with an exact generate-transform decomposition. Partitioning any workflow into proposal coverage and a downstream transform, any accuracy change splits exactly into an extensive coverage dividend and an intensive transformation change. The decomposition diagnoses each task: arithmetic offers coverage headroom that a critic-guided transform converts, whereas the multiple-choice benchmarks either saturate in coverage or fail to convert it, and on open-ended code generative recovery nearly vanishes so accuracy tracks coverage. At equal call budgets token cost still varies 2.1x. Extra calls therefore create candidate opportunity that only some architectures, on some tasks, convert. Team scaling is a task- and architecture-specific bet, not a uniform lever.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is a powerful technique for model compression, reducing the precision of neural networks without additional training overhead. Recent works have investigated adopting 8-bit floating-point quantization (FP8) in the context of PTQ for model inference. However, the exploration of floating-point formats smaller than 8 bits and their comparison with integer quantization remains relatively limited. In this work, we present minifloats, which are reduced-precision floating-point formats capable of further reducing the memory footprint, latency, and energy cost of a model while approaching full-precision model accuracy. Our work presents a novel PTQ design-space exploration, comparing minifloat and integer quantization schemes across a range of 3 to 8 bits for both weights and activations. We examine the applicability of various PTQ techniques to minifloats, including weight equalization, bias correction, SmoothQuant, gradient-based learned rounding, and the GPTQ method. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of low-precision minifloats when compared to their integer counterparts across a spectrum of accuracy-precision trade-offs on a set of reference deep learning vision workloads. Finally, we evaluate our results against an FPGA-based hardware cost model, showing that integer quantization often remains the Pareto-optimal option, given its relatively smaller hardware resource footprint.

We introduce OSGym, a scalable distributed Data Engine for training agents across diverse computer use tasks. OSGym efficiently scales to more than a thousand operating system (OS) replicas under academia-affordable cost budget, to serve as agent runtime environments. OSGym has three advantages: 1) Scalability: Despite intensive resource consumption for running OS replicas, OSGym can parallelize a thousand OS replicas while maintaining the operation efficiency under limited resources. Its scalable parallelization enables generating a vast amount of data (1420 multi-turn trajectories per minute). 2) Generality and Customizability: OSGym supports a wide variety of tasks as long as they run on operating systems, including functional tool-use, browser interactions, software engineering, office applications, etc. It also enables easy and flexible customization of model training algorithms. 3) Economic Viability for Academia Use: Only costs 0.2 to 0.3 USD per day per OS replica on easily accessible on-demand compute providers. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of OSGym for implementing comprehensive pipelines for data collection, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning for computer use agents. We believe OSGym will push the scalability and universality in future agent research.

The increasing computational demands of foundation models have spurred research into low-precision training, with 4-bit floating-point (FP4) formats emerging as a frontier for maximizing hardware throughput. While numerous techniques have been proposed to stabilize FP4 training, they often present isolated solutions with varying, and not always clear, computational overheads. This paper aims to provide a unified view of the design space of FP4 training. We introduce a comprehensive, quantisation gradient-based framework for microscaling quantization that allows for a theoretical analysis of the computational costs associated with different stabilization methods on both the forward and backward passes. Using a simulator built on this framework, we conduct an extensive empirical study across a wide range of machine learning tasks, including regression, image classification, diffusion models, and language models. By systematically evaluating thousands of combinations of techniques, such as novel gradient approximations, rounding strategies, and scaling methods, we identify which configurations offer the most favourable performance-to-overhead trade-off. We find that the techniques enabling the best trade-off involve carefully combining Hadamard transformations, tensor scaling and stochastic rounding. We further find that using UE5M3 as a scaling factor potentially offers a good compromise between range and precision with manageable computational overhead.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities across a range of natural language processing tasks, and LLM inference has emerged as a critical workload for enabling downstream applications. The demands of serving LLM inference are becoming increasingly challenging as requests shift toward longer sequences and heavier inference, driven by retrieval-augmented generation, inference-time compute scaling, and long-context applications. Additionally, these challenges are compounded by hardware trends, as memory capacity and communication bandwidth are not scaling as fast as increases in workload complexity. Compute-in-Flash is a promising solution to address memory bandwidth limitations by moving computation close to memory, and to exploit the large capacity of SSD technologies. However, it is challenging to deploy LLMs on these systems as they lack support for high-precision floating point operations and have limited write endurance. In our work, we aim to address these challenges by designing inference algorithms to enable LLM inference on Flash compute-in-memory devices. We present an end-to-end integer-only quantization approach to eliminate expensive floating-point computations. To address the limited write endurance, we design a dictionary-based KV cache compression strategy based on sparse dictionary coding that represents each KV vector as a linear combination of static dictionary vectors. These algorithmic improvements enable us to exploit the benefits of Compute-in-Flash for both model weights and KV cache, and to minimize expensive data transfer operations. Across Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-7B, our combined method exhibits limited accuracy degradation while reducing dynamic KV cache traffic by 15times.

Software delegates more of its branches to models every year: which queue a ticket enters, whether a command is safe to run, whether a claim clears without a person. What the program needs back is not prose. It is one of n declared options and a number it can threshold. Today that costs a round trip to a frontier model -- hundreds of milliseconds, a per-token bill, and a parser -- for a question that is usually a conjunction of three clauses. this-that-model-1.0 is a 2B-parameter typed decision model. Its answer is read directly from the hidden state at a designated position and restricted to the option set the caller declared, so no text is generated, nothing can be malformed, and every question in a request is answered in the same forward pass. It decides in 30.9 ms on one laptop GPU and generates zero output tokens doing it, where a frontier API call costs 8758 ms and the hosted systems that answer these questions well spend between 21 and 212 generated tokens per question thinking first, billed for every one. It sustains 32 decisions per second on one consumer GPU and never lets the state leave the machine. On a third party's recorded cohort of 68 decision questions, on their inputs and their wording, it scores 0.941 with a Brier score of 0.042, against 0.765 and 0.133 for the hosted service Jev on the same items. One pass of our 42-family internal suite takes 32 seconds and 0.000217 USD of electricity; the most accurate hosted model we measured needs 155.2 minutes and 10.636 USD. We also report where it loses. On multi-step arithmetic, which a single forward pass cannot carry intermediate results through, it scores 0.560 against their 0.98 to 1.00, and a targeted second training round improved the five task families it was written for and transferred to none of the other 13. The model is open-sourced in https://huggingface.co/flock-io/this-that-model-1.0

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

The optimal training configurations of large language models (LLMs) with respect to model sizes and compute budgets have been extensively studied. But how to optimally configure LLMs during inference has not been explored in sufficient depth. We study compute-optimal inference: designing models and inference strategies that optimally trade off additional inference-time compute for improved performance. As a first step towards understanding and designing compute-optimal inference methods, we assessed the effectiveness and computational efficiency of multiple inference strategies such as Greedy Search, Majority Voting, Best-of-N, Weighted Voting, and their variants on two different Tree Search algorithms, involving different model sizes and computational budgets. We found that a smaller language model with a novel tree search algorithm typically achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off. These results highlight the potential benefits of deploying smaller models equipped with more sophisticated decoding algorithms in budget-constrained scenarios, e.g., on end-devices, to enhance problem-solving accuracy. For instance, we show that the Llemma-7B model can achieve competitive accuracy to a Llemma-34B model on MATH500 while using 2times less FLOPs. Our findings could potentially apply to any generation task with a well-defined measure of success.

Diffusion models are emerging models that generate images by iteratively denoising random Gaussian noise using deep neural networks. These models typically exhibit high computational and memory demands, necessitating effective post-training quantization for high-performance inference. Recent works propose low-bitwidth (e.g., 8-bit or 4-bit) quantization for diffusion models, however 4-bit integer quantization typically results in low-quality images. We observe that on several widely used hardware platforms, there is little or no difference in compute capability between floating-point and integer arithmetic operations of the same bitwidth (e.g., 8-bit or 4-bit). Therefore, we propose an effective floating-point quantization method for diffusion models that provides better image quality compared to integer quantization methods. We employ a floating-point quantization method that was effective for other processing tasks, specifically computer vision and natural language tasks, and tailor it for diffusion models by integrating weight rounding learning during the mapping of the full-precision values to the quantized values in the quantization process. We comprehensively study integer and floating-point quantization methods in state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our floating-point quantization method not only generates higher-quality images than that of integer quantization methods, but also shows no noticeable degradation compared to full-precision models (32-bit floating-point), when both weights and activations are quantized to 8-bit floating-point values, while has minimal degradation with 4-bit weights and 8-bit activations.

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. This requires engaging with a decades-old debate at the heart of computer science progress, namely, is bigger always better? Hence, this essay may be of interest not only to policymakers and the wider public but also to computer scientists interested in understanding the role of compute in unlocking breakthroughs. Does a certain inflection point of compute result in changes to the risk profile of a model? This discussion is increasingly urgent given the wide adoption of governance approaches that suggest greater compute equates with higher propensity for harm. Several leading frontier AI companies have released responsible scaling policies. Both the White House Executive Orders on AI Safety (EO) and the EU AI Act encode the use of FLOP or floating-point operations as a way to identify more powerful systems. What is striking about the choice of compute thresholds to-date is that no models currently deployed in the wild fulfill the current criteria set by the EO. This implies that the emphasis is often not on auditing the risks and harms incurred by currently deployed models - but rather is based upon the belief that future levels of compute will introduce unforeseen new risks. A key conclusion of this essay is that compute thresholds as currently implemented are shortsighted and likely to fail to mitigate risk. Governance that is overly reliant on compute fails to understand that the relationship between compute and risk is highly uncertain and rapidly changing. It also overestimates our ability to predict what abilities emerge at different scales. This essay ends with recommendations for a better way forward.

We propose a systematic approach to reduce the memory consumption of deep neural network training. Specifically, we design an algorithm that costs O(sqrt(n)) memory to train a n layer network, with only the computational cost of an extra forward pass per mini-batch. As many of the state-of-the-art models hit the upper bound of the GPU memory, our algorithm allows deeper and more complex models to be explored, and helps advance the innovations in deep learning research. We focus on reducing the memory cost to store the intermediate feature maps and gradients during training. Computation graph analysis is used for automatic in-place operation and memory sharing optimizations. We show that it is possible to trade computation for memory - giving a more memory efficient training algorithm with a little extra computation cost. In the extreme case, our analysis also shows that the memory consumption can be reduced to O(log n) with as little as O(n log n) extra cost for forward computation. Our experiments show that we can reduce the memory cost of a 1,000-layer deep residual network from 48G to 7G with only 30 percent additional running time cost on ImageNet problems. Similarly, significant memory cost reduction is observed in training complex recurrent neural networks on very long sequences.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a key strategy for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), particularly in tasks like mathematical problem-solving. A traditional approach, Self-Consistency (SC), generates multiple solutions to a problem and selects the most common answer via majority voting. Another common method involves scoring each solution with a reward model (verifier) and choosing the best one. Recent advancements in Generative Reward Models (GenRM) reframe verification as a next-token prediction task, enabling inference-time scaling along a new axis. Specifically, GenRM generates multiple verification chains-of-thought to score each solution. Under a limited inference budget, this introduces a fundamental trade-off: should you spend the budget on scaling solutions via SC or generate fewer solutions and allocate compute to verification via GenRM? To address this, we evaluate GenRM against SC under a fixed inference budget. Interestingly, we find that SC is more compute-efficient than GenRM for most practical inference budgets across diverse models and datasets. For instance, GenRM first matches SC after consuming up to 8x the inference compute and requires significantly more compute to outperform it. Furthermore, we derive inference scaling laws for the GenRM paradigm, revealing that compute-optimal inference favors scaling solution generation more aggressively than scaling the number of verifications. Our work provides practical guidance on optimizing test-time scaling by balancing solution generation and verification. The code is available at https://github.com/nishadsinghi/sc-genrm-scaling.

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

Consider a market of competing model providers selling query access to models with varying costs and capabilities. Customers submit problem instances and are willing to pay up to a budget for a verifiable solution. An arbitrageur efficiently allocates inference budget across providers to undercut the market, thus creating a competitive offering with no model-development risk. In this work, we initiate the study of arbitrage in AI model markets, empirically demonstrating the viability of arbitrage and illustrating its economic consequences. We conduct an in-depth case study of SWE-bench GitHub issue resolution using two representative models, GPT-5 mini and DeepSeek v3.2. In this verifiable domain, simple arbitrage strategies generate net profit margins of up to 40%. Robust arbitrage strategies that generalize across different domains remain profitable. Distillation further creates strong arbitrage opportunities, potentially at the expense of the teacher model's revenue. Multiple competing arbitrageurs drive down consumer prices, reducing the marginal revenue of model providers. At the same time, arbitrage reduces market segmentation and facilitates market entry for smaller model providers by enabling earlier revenue capture. Our results suggest that arbitrage can be a powerful force in AI model markets with implications for model development, distillation, and deployment.

Tensor computations, with matrix multiplication being the primary operation, serve as the fundamental basis for data analysis, physics, machine learning, and deep learning. As the scale and complexity of data continue to grow rapidly, the demand for tensor computations has also increased significantly. To meet this demand, several research institutions have started developing dedicated hardware for tensor computations. To further improve the computational performance of tensor process units, we have reexamined the issue of computation reuse that was previously overlooked in existing architectures. As a result, we propose a novel EN-T architecture that can reduce chip area and power consumption. Furthermore, our method is compatible with existing tensor processing units. We evaluated our method on prevalent microarchitectures, the results demonstrate an average improvement in area efficiency of 8.7\%, 12.2\%, and 11.0\% for tensor computing units at computational scales of 256 GOPS, 1 TOPS, and 4 TOPS, respectively. Similarly, there were energy efficiency enhancements of 13.0\%, 17.5\%, and 15.5\%.

While scaling laws guide compute allocation for LLM pre-training, analogous prescriptions for reinforcement learning (RL) post-training of large language models (LLMs) remain poorly understood. We study the compute-optimal allocation of sampling compute for on-policy RL methods in LLMs, framing scaling as a compute-constrained optimization over three resources: parallel rollouts per problem, number of problems per batch, and number of update steps. We find that the compute-optimal number of parallel rollouts per problem increases predictably with compute budget and then saturates. This trend holds across both easy and hard problems, though driven by different mechanisms: solution sharpening on easy problems and coverage expansion on hard problems. We further show that increasing the number of parallel rollouts mitigates interference across problems, while the number of problems per batch primarily affects training stability and can be chosen within a broad range. Validated across base models and data distributions, our results recast RL scaling laws as prescriptive allocation rules and provide practical guidance for compute-efficient LLM RL post-training.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

JET uses pretrained language and vision-language models to select among a finite set of answers without additional training. It evaluates candidate likelihoods directly and shares computation across candidates. Experiments on desktop CPUs and consumer GPUs assess decision accuracy and execution cost. Qwen3.6-35B-A3B achieves 87.48% accuracy on the full MMLU test set and 3.69 requests per second on a separately timed MMLU subset. The accuracy-throughput comparison covers model, hardware, and reasoning choices, with Jev as an external reference. Controlled execution experiments show 2.18-2.23-fold speedups from prefix reuse and cache management, and a 30.8% reduction in process time from input preparation optimizations, with unchanged outputs. Optional reasoning has a task-dependent accuracy-throughput trade-off. These results support local decision inference from existing models.

Recent advances in large language models have brought immense value to the world, with their superior capabilities stemming from the massive number of parameters they utilize. However, even the GPUs with the highest memory capacities, currently peaking at 80GB, are far from sufficient to accommodate these vast parameters and their associated optimizer states when conducting stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. One approach to hosting such huge models is to aggregate device memory from many GPUs. However, this approach introduces prohibitive costs for most academic researchers, who always have a limited budget for many high-end GPU servers. In this paper, we focus on huge model fine-tuning on a single, even low-end, GPU in a commodity server, which is accessible to most AI researchers. In such a scenario, the state-of-the-art work ZeRO-Infinity suffers from two severe issues when running in a commodity server: 1) low GPU utilization due to inefficient swapping, and 2) limited trainable model size due to CPU memory capacity. The underlying reason is that ZeRO-Infinity is optimized for running on high-end GPU servers. To this end, we present Fuyou, a low-cost training framework that enables efficient 100B huge model fine-tuning on a low-end server with a low-end GPU and limited CPU memory capacity. The key idea is to add the SSD-CPU communication as an optimization dimension and thus carefully co-optimize computation and data swapping from a systematic approach to maximize GPU utilization. The experimental results show that 1) Fuyou is able to fine-tune 175B GPT-3 on a consumer GPU RTX 4090 with high GPU utilization, while ZeRO-Infinity fails to fine-tune; and 2) when training a small GPT-3 13B model, Fuyou achieves 156 TFLOPS on an RTX 4090 GPU while ZeRO-Infinity only achieves 45 TFLOPS.

Quantization-aware training (QAT) is a leading technique for improving the accuracy of quantized neural networks. Previous work has shown that decomposing training into a full-precision (FP) phase followed by a QAT phase yields superior accuracy compared to QAT alone. However, the optimal allocation of compute between the FP and QAT phases remains unclear. We conduct extensive experiments with various compute budgets, QAT bit widths, and model sizes from 86.0M to 2.2B to investigate how different QAT durations impact final performance. We demonstrate that, contrary to previous findings, the loss-optimal ratio of QAT to FP training increases with the total amount of compute. Moreover, the optimal fraction can be accurately predicted for a wide range of model sizes and quantization widths using the tokens-per-parameter-byte statistic. From experimental data, we derive a loss scaling law that predicts both optimal QAT ratios and final model performance across different QAT/FP compute allocation strategies and QAT bit widths. We use the scaling law to make further predictions, which we verify experimentally, including which QAT bit width is optimal under a given memory constraint and how QAT accuracy with different bit widths compares to full-precision model accuracy. Additionally, we propose a novel cooldown and QAT fusion approach that performs learning rate decay jointly with quantization-aware training, eliminating redundant full-precision model updates and achieving significant compute savings. These findings provide practical insights into efficient QAT planning and enable the training of higher-quality quantized models with the same compute budget.

In recent years, researchers have focused on reducing the model size and number of computations (measured as "multiply-accumulate" or MAC operations) of DNNs. The energy consumption of a DNN depends on both the number of MAC operations and the energy efficiency of each MAC operation. The former can be estimated at design time; however, the latter depends on the intricate data reuse patterns and underlying hardware architecture. Hence, estimating it at design time is challenging. This work shows that the conventional approach to estimate the data reuse, viz. arithmetic intensity, does not always correctly estimate the degree of data reuse in DNNs since it gives equal importance to all the data types. We propose a novel model, termed "data type aware weighted arithmetic intensity" (DI), which accounts for the unequal importance of different data types in DNNs. We evaluate our model on 25 state-of-the-art DNNs on two GPUs. We show that our model accurately models data-reuse for all possible data reuse patterns for different types of convolution and different types of layers. We show that our model is a better indicator of the energy efficiency of DNNs. We also show its generality using the central limit theorem.

Long-horizon problem solving and scientific research require computation to accumulate across successive attempts. Partial solutions, experimental findings, and unsuccessful approaches can inform later work, yet most inference-time computation is organized around individual trajectories or candidates rather than a persistent body of reusable work. We call this paradigm compounding inference: organizing inference-time computation so that intermediate work persists and can be inspected, extended, combined, or challenged by subsequent computation. We instantiate compounding inference in GitSwarm, an asynchronous system where homogeneous agents independently decide how to advance a task while collaborating through structured persistent memory. Agents explore, experiment, verify, refine, and synthesize previous work in a shared, branch-able Git repository. Atomic commits preserve intermediate artifacts, while explicit semantic dependencies record how later contributions build on work across branches. We evaluate GitSwarm on long-horizon problem solving and sustained GPU-backed experimental research. On IMOProofBench-Advanced, GitSwarm solves all 30 problems in one run using GPT-5.5. On ProgramBench, it achieves a 79.4% mean score, versus 65.1% for the strongest reported baseline under the stated budget. On three neural architecture research tasks (Residual Matrix Transformer, Looped Transformer, NanoChat), GitSwarm improves upon the starting architectures through successive experimentation. Beyond final performance, we measure whether computation accumulates: on ProgramBench, 94.7% of contributions are subsequently built upon, while the selected solution's ancestry covers 82-93% of the contribution graph. These results show that inference-time computation can accumulate across otherwise independent episodes, forming an evolving body of work that subsequent inference can reuse.

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

Prevalent reinforcement learning~(RL) methods for fine-tuning LLM reasoners, such as GRPO or Leave-one-out PPO, abandon the learned value function in favor of empirically estimated returns. This hinders test-time compute scaling that relies on using the value-function for verification. In this work, we propose RL^V that augments any ``value-free'' RL method by jointly training the LLM as both a reasoner and a generative verifier using RL-generated data, adding verification capabilities without significant overhead. Empirically, RL^V boosts MATH accuracy by over 20\% with parallel sampling and enables 8-32times efficient test-time compute scaling compared to the base RL method. RL^V also exhibits strong generalization capabilities for both easy-to-hard and out-of-domain tasks. Furthermore, RL^V achieves 1.2-1.6times higher performance when jointly scaling parallel and sequential test-time compute with a long reasoning R1 model.

The demand for inference on extremely large scale LLMs has seen enormous growth in the recent months. It made evident the colossal shortage of dedicated hardware capable of efficient and fast processing of the involved compute and memory movement. The problem is aggravated by the exploding raise in the lengths of the sequences being processed, since those require efficient on-chip storage of the KV-cache of size proportional to the sequence length. To make the required compute feasible and fit the involved data into available memory, numerous quantization techniques have been proposed that allow accurate quantization for both weights and activations. One of the main recent breakthroughs in this direction was introduction of the family of Block Floating Point (BFP) formats characterized by a block of mantissas with a shared scale factor. These enable memory- power-, and compute- efficient hardware support of the tensor operations and provide extremely good quantization accuracy. The main issues preventing widespread application of block formats is caused by the presence of outliers in weights and activations since those affect the accuracy of the other values in the same block. In this paper, we focus on the most critical problem of limited KV-cache storage. We propose a novel approach enabling usage of low precision BFP formats without compromising the resulting model accuracy. We exploit the common channel-wise patterns exhibited by the outliers to rearrange them in such a way, that their quantization quality is significantly improved. The methodology yields 2x savings in the memory footprint without significant degradation of the model's accuracy. Importantly, the rearrangement of channels happens at the compile time and thus has no impact on the inference latency.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

We present a high-performance system for automatic differentiation (AD) of functions defined on triangle meshes that exploits the inherent sparsity and locality of mesh-based energy functions to achieve fast gradient and Hessian computation on the GPU. Our system is designed around per-element forward-mode differentiation, enabling all local computations to remain in GPU registers or shared memory. Unlike reverse-mode approaches that construct and traverse global computation graphs, our method performs differentiation on the fly, minimizing memory traffic and avoiding global synchronization. Our programming model allows users to define local energy terms while the system handles parallel evaluation, derivative computation, and sparse Hessian assembly. We benchmark our system on a range of applications--cloth simulation, surface parameterization, mesh smoothing, and spherical manifold optimization. We achieve a geometric mean speedup of 6.2x over optimized PyTorch implementations for second-order derivatives, and 2.76x speedup for Hessian-vector products. For first-order derivatives, our system is 6.38x, 2.89x, and 1.98x faster than Warp, JAX, and Dr.JIT, respectively, while remaining on par with hand-written derivatives.

As AI datacenters retire functional GPUs, vast quantities of still capable accelerators enter secondary markets. This paper investigates whether these retired GPUs can find a productive afterlife to form a DumpsterCluster that can serve modern LLM inference, and under what conditions such repurposing is economically viable and environmentally sustainable. We physically built a 128-GPU DumpsterCluster from scratch using only second-hand components and ran it for one year. At current market prices (\22K for the DumpsterCluster vs. 600K for an 8-GPU B200 system), the economic advantages are substantial. Through pipeline-parallel optimizations, our V100 based DumpsterCluster achieves competitive LLaMA-70B throughput, validating production viability. However, our deployment reveals critical context dependencies. Older GPUs consume significantly more energy per token, making total cost of ownership favorable only in regions with inexpensive electricity. Under grid-average carbon intensity, second-hand systems can produce approximately 4x higher total carbon emissions per token for 8B models, and over 40x for 70B models, compared to current-generation hardware. These findings show that GPU afterlife is not universally sustainable - hardware repurposing must be strategically coupled with low carbon energy sources. When deployed in regions with favourable energy economics and clean electricity, second-hand GPUs offer a viable pathway for expanding AI capacity while advancing affordability, energy security, and environmental responsibility.

Standard Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) training allocates a fixed rollout budget to every query, without regard for what each query's difficulty means for the current policy. This leads to two symmetric failure modes: easy queries produce near-zero advantage because the policy already solves them, while unsolvable queries produce no signal because the policy never solves them. Both regimes waste training FLOPs without contributing to a learning gradient. We introduce sorted Group Policy Optimization (sGPO), a compute-efficient strategy that trades a small budget of inference FLOPs for a large reduction in wasted training FLOPs. The key insight is that cheap inference compute can serve as a single offline proxy for query difficulty. By generating a small batch of parallel samples per query under the initial policy, we obtain a model-aware empirical success rate. This motivates setting the training rollout group size to the inverse of this success rate, a practical rule that maximizes sample efficiency by extracting the most advantage per generated rollout. This single profiling pass simultaneously drives data filtering (removing trivial queries and sub-sampling unsolvable ones), adaptive group size allocation, and curriculum construction (scheduling queries from easy to hard). sGPO matches or exceeds baseline performance while reducing total training compute by a factor of three, with the upfront inference profiling cost included.

Quantization has become a popular technique to compress neural networks and reduce compute cost, but most prior work focuses on studying quantization without changing the network size. Many real-world applications of neural networks have compute cost and memory budgets, which can be traded off with model quality by changing the number of parameters. In this work, we use ResNet as a case study to systematically investigate the effects of quantization on inference compute cost-quality tradeoff curves. Our results suggest that for each bfloat16 ResNet model, there are quantized models with lower cost and higher accuracy; in other words, the bfloat16 compute cost-quality tradeoff curve is Pareto-dominated by the 4-bit and 8-bit curves, with models primarily quantized to 4-bit yielding the best Pareto curve. Furthermore, we achieve state-of-the-art results on ImageNet for 4-bit ResNet-50 with quantization-aware training, obtaining a top-1 eval accuracy of 77.09%. We demonstrate the regularizing effect of quantization by measuring the generalization gap. The quantization method we used is optimized for practicality: It requires little tuning and is designed with hardware capabilities in mind. Our work motivates further research into optimal numeric formats for quantization, as well as the development of machine learning accelerators supporting these formats. As part of this work, we contribute a quantization library written in JAX, which is open-sourced at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/aqt.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a new axis along which to improve model accuracy, where additional computation is used at inference time to allow the model to think longer for more challenging problems. One promising approach for test-time compute scaling is search against a process reward model, where a model generates multiple potential candidates at each step of the search, and these partial trajectories are then scored by a separate reward model in order to guide the search process. The diversity of trajectories in the tree search process affects the accuracy of the search, since increasing diversity promotes more exploration. However, this diversity comes at a cost, as divergent trajectories have less KV sharing, which means they consume more memory and slow down the search process. Previous search methods either do not perform sufficient exploration, or else explore diverse trajectories but have high latency. We address this challenge by proposing Efficient Tree Search (ETS), which promotes KV sharing by pruning redundant trajectories while maintaining necessary diverse trajectories. ETS incorporates a linear programming cost model to promote KV cache sharing by penalizing the number of nodes retained, while incorporating a semantic coverage term into the cost model to ensure that we retain trajectories which are semantically different. We demonstrate how ETS can achieve 1.8times reduction in average KV cache size during the search process, leading to 1.4times increased throughput relative to prior state-of-the-art methods, with minimal accuracy degradation and without requiring any custom kernel implementation. Code is available at: https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/ETS.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional performance but entail significant memory and computational costs, restricting their practical deployment. While existing INT4/INT8 quantization reduces these costs, they often degrade accuracy or lack optimal efficiency. INT6 quantization offers a superior trade-off between model accuracy and inference efficiency, but lacks hardware support in modern GPUs, forcing emulation via higher-precision arithmetic units that limit acceleration. In this paper, we propose FlexQ, a novel post-training INT6 quantization framework combining algorithmic innovation with system-level optimizations. FlexQ employs uniform 6-bit weight quantization across all layers, with adaptive retention of 8-bit activations in layers identified through layer-wise sensitivity analysis. To maximize hardware efficiency, we develop a specialized high-performance GPU kernel supporting matrix multiplication for W6A6 and W6A8 representations via Binary Tensor Core (BTC) equivalents, effectively bypassing the lack of native INT6 tensor cores. Evaluations on LLaMA models show FlexQ maintains near-FP16 accuracy, with perplexity increases of no more than 0.05. The proposed kernel achieves an average 1.39times speedup over ABQ-LLM on LLaMA-2-70B linear layers. End-to-end, FlexQ delivers 1.33times inference acceleration and 1.21times memory savings over SmoothQuant. Code is released at https://github.com/FlyFoxPlayer/FlexQ.

The escalating demand for Machine Learning (ML) training resources in recent years has resulted in a substantial gap between the high demand and the available supply. Efficient allocation of these scarce and expensive resources is crucial for organizations to maximize their return on investment. Existing resource allocation mechanisms, like Karma [OSDI'23], are designed to guarantee Pareto efficiency and max-min fairness in settings with dynamic (time-varying) user demands, but fail to preserve these key properties in the presence of demands with heterogeneous values. Given the ubiquity and inevitability of heterogeneity in organizational values of different workloads, effective resource allocation policies must accommodate these variations. In this paper, we describe the design, implementation, deployment, and theoretical analysis of Quota Marketplace, a market-based mechanism to efficiently allocate ML training chips (like GPUs), explicitly addressing scenarios with demands of heterogeneous value. We detail the implementation of this mechanism within Google and present metrics that demonstrate its impact. We also discuss many business-critical requirements that the Quota Marketplace handles quite effectively, and document the gains and opportunities it has unlocked. We establish theoretically how this market-based approach achieves the essential properties of Pareto efficiency and max-min fairness by allowing the users to express the value of their workloads and enabling dynamic resource pricing based on supply and demand fluctuations. Ultimately, the market facilitates resource allocation that aligns with organizational priorities.

Large language models make weight storage and memory traffic major inference costs, motivating low-precision formats that represent each weight with only a few bits. Such formats use a scale to map floating-point values into a small codebook; NVFP4 improves local range utilization by letting every 16 E2M1 weights share an E4M3 block scale. Choosing that scale is difficult in GPTQ because quantizing one column updates those that follow, so evaluating a block independently can misestimate its final reconstruction error. Large models pose a second challenge: full-precision weights, calibration activations, and second-order state cannot all remain on one accelerator, while assigning complete layers to devices leaves each time-consuming layer solve serial. We introduce Schur Replay, a scale-selection algorithm that reproduces the GPTQ updates caused by each block scale and scores the resulting block error after accounting for compensation from unquantized columns. Separately, our execution infrastructure keeps only the active layer resident, tiers activations across device, host, and disk, retires full-precision layers after export, and distributes independent output rows across tensor-parallel ranks. Together, the algorithm and infrastructure attain 99.35% and 100.84% question-weighted recovery from BF16 across seven benchmarks on Qwen3.5-397B-A17B and Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct. On the 397B model, the infrastructure reduces measured per-layer time by 15.17times over ModelOpt and 23.14times over LLM Compressor, with lower memory used per GPU.

Multiplications are responsible for most of the computational cost involved in neural network training and inference. Recent research has thus looked for ways to reduce the cost associated with them. Inspired by Mogami (2020), we replace multiplication with a cheap piecewise affine approximation that is achieved by adding the bit representation of the floating point numbers together as integers. We show that transformers can be trained with the resulting modified matrix multiplications on both vision and language tasks with little to no performance impact, and without changes to the training hyperparameters. We further replace all non-linearities in the networks making them fully and jointly piecewise affine in both inputs and weights. Finally, we show that we can eliminate all multiplications in the entire training process, including operations in the forward pass, backward pass and optimizer update, demonstrating the first successful training of modern neural network architectures in a fully multiplication-free fashion.

Test-time scaling (TTS) improves large language model (LLM) reasoning by sampling multiple answers, but fixed sampling budgets ignore both query difficulty and the changing energy cost of inference under GPU contention. We measure up to a 4.1-fold increase in energy for the same four-sample query as GPU load rises. We present ATEST, a resource-aware TTS framework that jointly considers the expected value of additional samples and their current GPU cost. ATEST-Online, its default mode, requires no offline calibration: it incrementally generates samples, estimates the stability of the plurality answer, monitors live GPU conditions, and learns step energy cost online to decide when to stop. ATEST-Calibrated instead selects a per-query budget using offline accuracy and cost models, favoring deployments with stable loads. We evaluate both modes on four reasoning and question-answering datasets using Phi-3-mini on an NVIDIA A100 under controlled varying load, and test transfer to an NVIDIA L40S and Qwen2.5-3B. Across the four A100 datasets, ATEST-Online answers every query without exceeding the energy budget, while achieving the highest or statistically tied accuracy and reducing sampling as load increases. On GSM8K at high load, it achieves 60.0% accuracy with no deferrals, versus 44.0% accuracy and 42.4% deferrals for ATEST-Calibrated. Ablations show that online cost learning drives adaptation to load. Including offline profiling, ATEST-Online uses 42 times less GPU time and 48 times less energy than ATEST-Calibrated for the evaluated workload. Online control trades higher tail latency and lower throughput on short tasks for robustness under varying load; offline calibration remains competitive under stable conditions.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on various computer vision applications. However, these models have considerable storage and computational overheads, making their deployment and efficient inference on edge devices challenging. Quantization is a promising approach to reducing model complexity, and the dyadic arithmetic pipeline can allow the quantized models to perform efficient integer-only inference. Unfortunately, dyadic arithmetic is based on the homogeneity condition in convolutional neural networks, which is not applicable to the non-linear components in ViTs, making integer-only inference of ViTs an open issue. In this paper, we propose I-ViT, an integer-only quantization scheme for ViTs, to enable ViTs to perform the entire computational graph of inference with integer arithmetic and bit-shifting, and without any floating-point arithmetic. In I-ViT, linear operations (e.g., MatMul and Dense) follow the integer-only pipeline with dyadic arithmetic, and non-linear operations (e.g., Softmax, GELU, and LayerNorm) are approximated by the proposed light-weight integer-only arithmetic methods. More specifically, I-ViT applies the proposed Shiftmax and ShiftGELU, which are designed to use integer bit-shifting to approximate the corresponding floating-point operations. We evaluate I-ViT on various benchmark models and the results show that integer-only INT8 quantization achieves comparable (or even slightly higher) accuracy to the full-precision (FP) baseline. Furthermore, we utilize TVM for practical hardware deployment on the GPU's integer arithmetic units, achieving 3.72sim4.11times inference speedup compared to the FP model. Code of both Pytorch and TVM is released at https://github.com/zkkli/I-ViT.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Vision transformers in vision-language models apply uniform computational effort across all images, expending 175.33 GFLOPs (ViT-L/14) whether analysing a straightforward product photograph or a complex street scene. We propose ICAR (Image Complexity-Aware Retrieval), which enables vision transformers to use less compute for simple images whilst processing complex images through their full network depth. The key challenge is maintaining cross-modal alignment: embeddings from different processing depths must remain compatible for text matching. ICAR solves this through dual-path training that produces compatible embeddings from both reduced-compute and full-compute processing. This maintains compatibility between image representations and text embeddings in the same semantic space, whether an image exits early or processes fully. Unlike existing two-stage approaches that require expensive reranking, ICAR enables direct image-text matching without additional overhead. To determine how much compute to use, we develop ConvNeXt-IC, which treats image complexity assessment as a classification task. By applying modern classifier backbones rather than specialised architectures, ConvNeXt-IC achieves state-of-the-art performance with 0.959 correlation with human judgement (Pearson) and 4.4x speedup. Evaluated on standard benchmarks augmented with real-world web data, ICAR achieves 20% practical speedup while maintaining category-level performance and 95% of instance-level performance, enabling sustainable scaling of vision-language systems.

Computationally intensive decoding procedures--including search, reranking, and self-critique--can improve the quality of language model (LM) outputs in problems spanning code generation, numerical reasoning, and dialog. Existing work typically applies the same decoding procedure for every input to an LM. But not all inputs require the same amount of computation to process. Can we allocate decoding computation adaptively, using more resources to answer questions whose answers will be harder to compute? We present an approach that predicts the distribution of rewards given an input and computation budget, then allocates additional computation to inputs for which it is predicted to be most useful. We apply this approach in two decoding procedures: first, an adaptive best-of-k procedure that dynamically selects the number of samples to generate as input to a reranker; second, a routing procedure that dynamically responds to a query using a decoding procedure that is expensive but accurate, or one that is cheaper but less capable. Across a suite of programming, mathematics, and dialog tasks, we show that accurate computation-allocation procedures can be learned, and reduce computation by up to 50% at no cost to response quality, or improve quality by up to 10% at a fixed computational budget.

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.

Intelligent scaling of microservices in cloud platforms is crucial for mitigating escalating compute costs while avoiding service disruptions. Current solutions are limited to the univariate space, typically focusing on CPU usage alone to drive scaling decisions. Moreover, they address the problem as a purely forecasting task, focusing on prediction precision while neglecting the greater risks of underestimation and delays in system responsiveness. Alternative solutions are computationally complex, making them impractical for large-scale, real-time deployments. To address these challenges, we present STARIXNet, a lightweight neural network that guides resource allocation decisions in the multivariate space by capturing spatio-temporal relationships among multiple system metrics. STARIXNet models multiple quasi-dependent attributes, in particular the (S)easonal, (T)emporal, (A)uto-(R)egressive (I)ntegrated, and e(X)ogenous patterns, then implements an aggregation policy to finalize scaling decisions, prioritizing service stability, followed by cost-efficiency, over raw forecast accuracy. We empirically demonstrate the performance of STARIXNet by benchmarking against existing solutions in real-world settings. STARIXNet is deployed for critical production microservices at Walmart achieving tangible savings ranging from 10\% to 50\%, in addition to intangible benefits through improved service stability and customer experience.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into many online services. However, a major challenge in deploying LLMs is their high cost, due primarily to the use of expensive GPU instances. To address this problem, we find that the significant heterogeneity of GPU types presents an opportunity to increase GPU cost efficiency and reduce deployment costs. The broad and growing market of GPUs creates a diverse option space with varying costs and hardware specifications. Within this space, we show that there is not a linear relationship between GPU cost and performance, and identify three key LLM service characteristics that significantly affect which GPU type is the most cost effective: model request size, request rate, and latency service-level objective (SLO). We then present M\'elange, a framework for navigating the diversity of GPUs and LLM service specifications to derive the most cost-efficient set of GPUs for a given LLM service. We frame the task of GPU selection as a cost-aware bin-packing problem, where GPUs are bins with a capacity and cost, and items are request slices defined by a request size and rate. Upon solution, M\'elange derives the minimal-cost GPU allocation that adheres to a configurable latency SLO. Our evaluations across both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that M\'elange can reduce deployment costs by up to 77% as compared to utilizing only a single GPU type, highlighting the importance of making heterogeneity-aware GPU provisioning decisions for LLM serving. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/tyler-griggs/melange-release.

As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.

Large language models pay a well-documented tax on non-English text: the same content costs several times more tokens, and because attention is quadratic in sequence length, far more compute. We ask how much of this tax is removable. Framing the token layer as source coding -- transformer compute is monotone in sequence length, whose per-atom floor is the Shannon rate H/log_2 V, an object already applied to tokenizers in prior work -- we assemble a token-cost ledger that splits each language's cost, at fixed parallel content, into a removable coding redundancy, a residual coding slack, an intrinsic-content term, and an orthogonal, irreducible grapheme-to-phoneme term that governs the multimodal rather than the text cost. On FLORES-200 across eight languages, a production tokenizer costs up to 8.9times more tokens for Indic scripts than for English; a script-matched code trained on 1,012 sentences removes a median 64% of that excess (bootstrap 95\% CI [0.638, 0.647]), and a script-fair information floor shows the intrinsic content differs by under 6% -- the tax is representational, not informational. A constructed code removes 98% of a controlled source's redundancy, and the token tax implies up to 79times attention cost. We are explicit about scope and failure: this is compute-and-memory accounting, not a model-quality claim; we neither measure nor claim the cross-lingual direction of the orthographic term; and our matched code is a conservative small-data demonstration. We contribute the unifying ledger, the removable-versus-intrinsic attribution, and an open one-command harness.

Data valuation is essential for enhancing the transparency and accountability of large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs). However, existing methods typically rely on gradient computations, making them computationally prohibitive for billion-parameter models and precluding batch parallelization. In this work, we introduce For-Value, a forward-only data valuation framework that enables efficient batch-scalable value estimation while maintaining effectiveness. Leveraging the expressive power of pretrained LLMs/VLMs, we theoretically demonstrate that data valuation can be captured by the alignment between the final hidden representations and prediction errors at the last layer. In light of this insight, For-Value computes data value using a simple closed-form expression with a single forward pass, eliminating the need for costly backpropagation and enabling efficient batch calculating at scale. Extensive experiments show that For-Value matches or outperforms gradient-based baselines in detecting influential data and mislabeled data, while achieving significant efficiency improvements.

Using fault-tolerant constructions, computations performed with unreliable components can simulate their noiseless counterparts though the introduction of a modest amount of redundancy. Given the modest overhead required to achieve fault-tolerance, and the fact that increasing the reliability of basic components often comes at a cost, are there situations where fault-tolerance may be more economical? We present a general framework to account for this overhead cost in order to effectively compare fault-tolerant to non-fault-tolerant approaches for computation, in the limit of small logical error rates. Using this detailed accounting, we determine explicit boundaries at which fault-tolerant designs become more efficient than designs that achieve comparable reliability through direct consumption of resources. We find that the fault-tolerant construction is always preferred in the limit of high reliability in cases where the resources required to construct a basic unit grows faster than log(1 / epsilon) asymptotically for small epsilon.

Posted prices for AI inference have fallen steadily since 2024, yet the measured speed of that fall depends almost entirely on the method of measurement. This paper constructs quality-adjusted price indices for the AI inference market from public data. The panel assembles 21,024 posted-price observations across 3,208 models and 86 providers and joins them to 4,605 benchmark scores through a latent quality index estimated from benchmark response patterns, so the quality ladder of the hedonic tradition is built here from evaluations in place of product characteristics. Measured by the matched-model methods that statistical agencies apply to software, inference prices fell at 0.10 log points a year. The quality-adjusted index fell at 0.73, so 87% of the decline is invisible to current methods, with direct consequences for measured competition, concentration and productivity in this market. Counted per completed task, moreover, the buyer's price stopped falling. Reasoning models raised token consumption faster than token prices fell, and the seller's and buyer's prices accordingly diverged. A pre-registered validity audit disciplines the quality measure and yields the sharpest result. Excluding contamination-flagged benchmarks leaves model rankings intact at 0.998 yet moves the index by 0.49 log points a year, so the leaderboard-stability arguments standard in AI evaluation offer no defence of economic statistics built on benchmarks. Prices, quality and the audit are fully reproducible from public sources at zero cost.

Stock prediction is a topic undergoing intense study for many years. Finance experts and mathematicians have been working on a way to predict the future stock price so as to decide to buy the stock or sell it to make profit. Stock experts or economists, usually analyze on the previous stock values using technical indicators, sentiment analysis etc to predict the future stock price. In recent years, many researches have extensively used machine learning for predicting the stock behaviour. In this paper we propose data driven deep learning approach to predict the future stock value with the previous price with the feature extraction property of convolutional neural network and to use Neural Arithmetic Logic Units with it.

Sampling is a basic operation in many inference-time algorithms of large language models (LLMs). To scale up inference efficiently with a limited compute, it is crucial to find an optimal allocation for sample compute budgets: Which sampling configurations (model, temperature, language, etc.) do we use? How many samples do we generate in each configuration? We formulate these choices as a learning problem and propose OSCA, an algorithm that Optimizes Sample Compute Allocation by finding an optimal mix of different inference configurations. Our experiments show that with our learned mixed allocation, we can achieve accuracy better than the best single configuration with 128x less compute on code generation and 25x less compute on 4 reasoning tasks. OSCA is also shown to be effective in agentic workflows beyond single-turn tasks, achieving a better accuracy on SWE-Bench with 3x less compute than the default configuration. Our code and generations are released at https://github.com/LeiLiLab/OSCA.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing mathematical reasoning in large language models (LLMs) by allocating additional computational resources during inference. However, current methods employ uniform resource distribution across all reasoning sub-problems, creating fundamental bottlenecks where challenging sub-problems receive insufficient attention while routine operations consume disproportionate resources. This uniform allocation creates performance bottlenecks where additional computational resources yield diminishing returns. Inspired by dual-process theory, we propose SCALE (Selective Resource Allocation), a framework that selectively allocates computational resources based on sub-problem difficulty. SCALE operates through four stages: (1) problem decomposition into sequential reasoning sub-problems, (2) difficulty assessment of each sub-problem to distinguish between routine operations and computationally challenging sub-problems, (3) selective processing mode assignment between System 1 for simple sub-problems and System 2 for complex ones, and (4) sequential execution with context propagation. By concentrating resources on challenging sub-problems while processing routine operations efficiently, SCALE achieves substantial performance improvements with superior resource utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SCALE significantly outperforms uniform scaling baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 13.75 percentage points (57.50% to 71.25% on AIME25) while reducing computational costs by 33%-53%, representing a major advance in test-time scaling that addresses fundamental limitations of current approaches.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

The deployment and training of neural networks on edge computing devices pose many challenges. The low memory nature of edge devices is often one of the biggest limiting factors encountered in the deployment of large neural network models. Tensor rematerialization or recompute is a way to address high memory requirements for neural network training and inference. In this paper we consider the problem of execution time minimization of compute graphs subject to a memory budget. In particular, we develop a new constraint programming formulation called Moccasin with only O(n) integer variables, where n is the number of nodes in the compute graph. This is a significant improvement over the works in the recent literature that propose formulations with O(n^2) Boolean variables. We present numerical studies that show that our approach is up to an order of magnitude faster than recent work especially for large-scale graphs.

Online inference is becoming a key service product for many businesses, deployed in cloud platforms to meet customer demands. Despite their revenue-generation capability, these services need to operate under tight Quality-of-Service (QoS) and cost budget constraints. This paper introduces KAIROS, a novel runtime framework that maximizes the query throughput while meeting QoS target and a cost budget. KAIROS designs and implements novel techniques to build a pool of heterogeneous compute hardware without online exploration overhead, and distribute inference queries optimally at runtime. Our evaluation using industry-grade deep learning (DL) models shows that KAIROS yields up to 2X the throughput of an optimal homogeneous solution, and outperforms state-of-the-art schemes by up to 70%, despite advantageous implementations of the competing schemes to ignore their exploration overhead.

Ternary weight quantization (e.g., BitNet b1.58) offers a promising path to mitigate the memory bandwidth bottleneck in Large Language Model (LLM) inference. However, conventional compute platforms lack native support for ternary-weight arithmetic, often relying on inefficient dequantization. Lookup table (LUT)-based hardware architectures provide an effective alternative by replacing multiplications with conditional additions, but their design space remains largely unexplored. Existing designs rely on heuristic parameter selection, lacking a systematic understanding of the architectural trade-offs. This work addresses this gap by formalizing the design space of ternary LUT-based accelerators and presenting an open-source hardware generator coupled with an analytical cost model, validated against synthesis in TSMC 16nm technology. By spanning the full architectural space, this framework not only enables rapid design space exploration but also establishes a common footing for fair cross-design evaluation, which was previously hindered by inconsistent instantiations across published accelerators. Using this framework, we challenge several assumptions and design choices in recent literature. We demonstrate that the optimal architecture is fundamentally governed by the activation data type: while LUT-based reuse offers significant gains for high-cost arithmetic (e.g., FP16), it yields diminishing returns for small integer types. Furthermore, we show that maximizing core size consistently improves area density compared to highly tiled approaches. Our optimized designs achieve a 2.2x area reduction compared to multiplier-based baselines. Moreover, by benchmarking state-of-the-art implementations against our model, we reveal that correcting suboptimal parameters yields up to a 1.2x area improvement.

AI compute verification is one of the first tangible and tractable points for international policy aimed at AI governance. Determining whether frontier labs, or any operator, comply with agreements requires the regulating authority to discern how their compute is used. The elementary building block of AI compute is the GPU, and any activity it executes leaves a physical trace. Here, we show that an external observer can identify the class of the workload running on an NVIDIA H200 from its power draw. Unlike on-chip NVML telemetry, which can be spoofed or replayed, such a physical channel can in principle be observed independently of operator cooperation. We recorded 930 five-second traces at sim 10 MHz, covering seventeen open LLM families and twenty-five non-AI workloads. Over this corpus we separate training from inference and from non-AI computation with an accuracy of 97% and a macro-averaged F1 score of 0.955, evaluated on model families unseen during training. AI workload spectral content predominantly lies below sim 20kHz and training is particularly recognizable through the memory-bound optimizer update. The GPU operator is then treated as adversarial and able to reshape the physical computation itself. Four evasion strategies are tested to disguise training as inference, producing an additional 680 adversarial traces. A detector hardened against evasion strategies, with the tested strategy held out, catches training geq 99% of the time for three of the four strategies. The fourth, diluted low-rank adaptation (LoRA), is detected 48--88% of the time with a hardened classifier, rising to geq 98% with an additional rescue rule. While these attacks are not a comprehensive evaluation against adversarial behaviour, they offer initial insights beyond genuine activities and a dataset for developing and testing stronger evasion mechanisms.

Bessel functions are critical in scientific computing for applications such as machine learning, protein structure modeling, and robotics. However, currently, available routines lack precision or fail for certain input ranges, such as when the order v is large, and GPU-specific implementations are limited. We address the precision limitations of current numerical implementations while dramatically improving the runtime. We propose two novel algorithms for computing the logarithm of modified Bessel functions of the first and second kinds by computing intermediate values on a logarithmic scale. Our algorithms are robust and never have issues with underflows or overflows while having relative errors on the order of machine precision, even for inputs where existing libraries fail. In C++/CUDA, our algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 45x and 6150x for GPU and 17x and 3403x for CPU, respectively, over the ranges of inputs and third-party libraries tested. Compared to SciPy, the algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 77x and 300x for GPU and 35x and 98x for CPU, respectively, over the tested inputs. The ability to robustly compute a solution and the low relative errors allow us to fit von Mises-Fisher, vMF, distributions to high-dimensional neural network features. This is, e.g., relevant for uncertainty quantification in metric learning. We obtain image feature data by processing CIFAR10 training images with the convolutional layers of a pre-trained ResNet50. We successfully fit vMF distributions to 2048-, 8192-, and 32768-dimensional image feature data using our algorithms. Our approach provides fast and accurate results while existing implementations in SciPy and mpmath fail to fit successfully. Our approach is readily implementable on GPUs, and we provide a fast open-source implementation alongside this paper.

The increasing versatility of language models LMs has given rise to a new class of benchmarks that comprehensively assess a broad range of capabilities. Such benchmarks are associated with massive computational costs reaching thousands of GPU hours per model. However the efficiency aspect of these evaluation efforts had raised little discussion in the literature. In this work we present the problem of Efficient Benchmarking namely intelligently reducing the computation costs of LM evaluation without compromising reliability. Using the HELM benchmark as a test case we investigate how different benchmark design choices affect the computation-reliability tradeoff. We propose to evaluate the reliability of such decisions by using a new measure Decision Impact on Reliability DIoR for short. We find for example that the current leader on HELM may change by merely removing a low-ranked model from the benchmark and observe that a handful of examples suffice to obtain the correct benchmark ranking. Conversely a slightly different choice of HELM scenarios varies ranking widely. Based on our findings we outline a set of concrete recommendations for more efficient benchmark design and utilization practices leading to dramatic cost savings with minimal loss of benchmark reliability often reducing computation by x100 or more.

Cloud computing is an established technology allowing users to share resources on a large scale, never before seen in IT history. A cloud system connects multiple individual servers in order to process related tasks in several environments at the same time. Clouds are typically more cost-effective than single computers of comparable computing performance. The sheer physical size of the system itself means that thousands of machines may be involved. The focus of this research was to design a strategy to dynamically allocate tasks without overloading Cloud nodes which would result in system stability being maintained at minimum cost. This research has added the following new contributions to the state of knowledge: (i) a novel taxonomy and categorisation of three classes of schedulers, namely OS-level, Cluster and Big Data, which highlight their unique evolution and underline their different objectives; (ii) an abstract model of cloud resources utilisation is specified, including multiple types of resources and consideration of task migration costs; (iii) a virtual machine live migration was experimented with in order to create a formula which estimates the network traffic generated by this process; (iv) a high-fidelity Cloud workload simulator, based on a month-long workload traces from Google's computing cells, was created; (v) two possible approaches to resource management were proposed and examined in the practical part of the manuscript: the centralised metaheuristic load balancer and the decentralised agent-based system. The project involved extensive experiments run on the University of Westminster HPC cluster, and the promising results are presented together with detailed discussions and a conclusion.

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

The challenge of mapping AI architectures to GPU hardware is creating a critical bottleneck in AI progress. Despite substantial efforts, hand-written custom kernels fail to meet their theoretical performance thresholds, even on well-established operations like linear attention. The diverse hardware capabilities of GPUs might suggest that we need a wide variety of techniques to achieve high performance. However, our work explores whether a small number of key abstractions can drastically simplify the process. We present ThunderKittens (TK), a framework for writing performant AI kernels while remaining easy to use and maintain. Our abstractions map to the three levels of the GPU hierarchy: (1) at the warp-level, we provide 16x16 matrix tiles as basic data structures and PyTorch-like parallel compute operations over tiles, (2) at the thread-block level, we provide a template for overlapping asynchronous operations across parallel warps, and (3) at the grid-level, we provide support to help hide the block launch and tear-down, and memory costs. We show the value of TK by providing kernels that match or outperform prior kernels for a range of AI operations. We match CuBLAS and FlashAttention-3 on GEMM and attention inference performance and outperform the strongest baselines by 10-40% on attention backwards, 8times on state space models, and 14times on linear attention.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are inclined explore Small Language Models (SLMs) as edge-native constitutional firewalls to vet proposals and mitigate semantic social engineering. While scaling inference-time compute (System 2) enhances formal logic, its efficacy in highly adversarial, cryptoeconomic governance environments remains underexplored. To address this, we introduce Sentinel-Bench, an 840-inference empirical framework executing a strict intra-model ablation on Qwen-3.5-9B. By toggling latent reasoning across frozen weights, we isolate the impact of inference-time compute against an adversarial Optimism DAO dataset. Our findings reveal a severe compute-accuracy inversion. The autoregressive baseline (System 1) achieved 100% adversarial robustness, 100% juridical consistency, and state finality in under 13 seconds. Conversely, System 2 reasoning introduced catastrophic instability, fundamentally driven by a 26.7% Reasoning Non-Convergence (cognitive collapse) rate. This collapse degraded trial-to-trial consensus stability to 72.6% and imposed a 17x latency overhead, introducing critical vulnerabilities to Governance Extractable Value (GEV) and hardware centralization. While rare (1.5% of adversarial trials), we empirically captured "Reasoning-Induced Sycophancy," where the model generated significantly longer internal monologues (averaging 25,750 characters) to rationalize failing the adversarial trap. We conclude that for edge-native SLMs operating under Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) constraints, System 1 parameterized intuition is structurally and economically superior to System 2 iterative deliberation for decentralized consensus. Code and Dataset: https://github.com/smarizvi110/sentinel-bench

We present NanoForecast v0.5, a 6.5M-parameter forecaster that competes with models 31x its size (TimesFM, 200M parameters) after training pipeline fixes and no architecture change. Retraining the v0.3 architecture with corrected loss-scope handling, tensor shape alignment, and wider augmentation coverage cuts overall Mean Absolute Scaled Error by 43.8% under one fixed protocol (MASE 3.030 to 1.704) on the same data and compute budget. NanoForecast v0.5 beats TimesFM on all three ETT datasets (MASE 0.676/1.110/0.287 vs. 0.705/1.360/0.545) and on exchange rate (4.317 vs. 4.383); TimesFM keeps a clear lead on the high-cardinality electricity and traffic sets. Against PatchTST (15M+ parameters, official configuration), v0.5 wins all three ETT sets. Training takes about 12 hours on a single cloud GPU (NVIDIA T4, Google Colab) and inference needs no GPU (measurements in this paper are on an Apple M4 CPU). We release all code, pretrained checkpoints, and evaluation framework under Apache 2.0 at https://github.com/eulogik/NanoForecast

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly progressed into general-purpose agents capable of solving a broad spectrum of tasks. However, current models remain inefficient at reasoning: they apply fixed inference-time compute regardless of task complexity, often overthinking simple problems while underthinking hard ones. This survey presents a comprehensive review of efficient test-time compute (TTC) strategies, which aim to improve the computational efficiency of LLM reasoning. We introduce a two-tiered taxonomy that distinguishes between L1-controllability, methods that operate under fixed compute budgets, and L2-adaptiveness, methods that dynamically scale inference based on input difficulty or model confidence. We benchmark leading proprietary LLMs across diverse datasets, highlighting critical trade-offs between reasoning performance and token usage. Compared to prior surveys on efficient reasoning, our review emphasizes the practical control, adaptability, and scalability of TTC methods. Finally, we discuss emerging trends such as hybrid thinking models and identify key challenges for future work towards making LLMs more computationally efficient, robust, and responsive to user constraints.

Autonomous discovery systems couple a resource that answers queries (a simulator, instrument, or analytic model) to an algorithm that selects what to query next. Most software frameworks for this loop inherit the control structure of numerical optimization: campaigns run for a fixed number of iterations, query costs are absent from the programming interface, and decision-making is treated as free. In practice, queries may differ in cost by orders of magnitude, and planners built on large language models or expensive surrogates consume resources of their own. Here we present CADAQUES, an open-source Python framework built on one architectural principle: cost is a first-class primitive of the discovery loop. CADAQUES separates the loop into two structural protocols, an Oracle that answers queries and a Driver that proposes them, and charges both evaluations and decisions against a common vector-valued budget spanning wall time, CPU hours, monetary cost, and language model tokens. An append-only ledger records, for each transaction, the cost declared before execution and the cost settled afterwards, making their discrepancy an observable property of the campaign. We evaluate the architecture by locating the critical temperature of the two-dimensional Ising model from noisy finite-size estimates against the exact thermodynamic-limit reference. In this noisy setting, strategies that concentrate around the best observed result can be misled by noise-induced peaks, whereas a schedule that explores with cheap low-fidelity queries and refines with higher-fidelity ones yields lower and less variable errors than high fidelity throughout, at the studied budget scale. Metering adds tens of microseconds per iteration, three orders of magnitude below the cheapest oracle query. The framework is MIT-licensed and archived at Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21293589).

Transformer based models, like BERT and RoBERTa, have achieved state-of-the-art results in many Natural Language Processing tasks. However, their memory footprint, inference latency, and power consumption are prohibitive efficient inference at the edge, and even at the data center. While quantization can be a viable solution for this, previous work on quantizing Transformer based models use floating-point arithmetic during inference, which cannot efficiently utilize integer-only logical units such as the recent Turing Tensor Cores, or traditional integer-only ARM processors. In this work, we propose I-BERT, a novel quantization scheme for Transformer based models that quantizes the entire inference with integer-only arithmetic. Based on lightweight integer-only approximation methods for nonlinear operations, e.g., GELU, Softmax, and Layer Normalization, I-BERT performs an end-to-end integer-only BERT inference without any floating point calculation. We evaluate our approach on GLUE downstream tasks using RoBERTa-Base/Large. We show that for both cases, I-BERT achieves similar (and slightly higher) accuracy as compared to the full-precision baseline. Furthermore, our preliminary implementation of I-BERT shows a speedup of 2.4-4.0x for INT8 inference on a T4 GPU system as compared to FP32 inference. The framework has been developed in PyTorch and has been open-sourced.