Daily Papers

Reward hacking arises when a model improves a proxy reward by exploiting shortcuts rather than solving the intended task. We study this failure mode through the geometry of reinforcement learning updates in language models and argue that hacking emerges when optimization drifts away from a stable low-dimensional learning trajectory. We analyze this drift through dominant singular directions of parameter updates and show that reward-hacking runs exhibit substantially larger directional change than clean runs. Motivated by this observation, we introduce trusted-direction projection, which constrains gradients to remain within a clean reference subspace. Across reward-hacking experiments on mathematical reasoning, the proposed approach delays shortcut exploitation and better preserves task performance.

Recent advances in vision--language pretraining have enabled strong medical foundation models, yet most analyze radiographs in isolation, overlooking the key clinical task of comparing prior and current images to assess interval change. For chest radiographs (CXRs), capturing interval change is essential, as radiologists must evaluate not only the static appearance of findings but also how they evolve over time. We introduce TILA (Temporal Inversion-aware Learning and Alignment), a simple yet effective framework that uses temporal inversion, reversing image pairs, as a supervisory signal to enhance the sensitivity of existing temporal vision-language models to directional change. TILA integrates inversion-aware objectives across pretraining, fine-tuning, and inference, complementing conventional appearance modeling with explicit learning of temporal order. We also propose a unified evaluation protocol to assess order sensitivity and consistency under temporal inversion, and introduce MS-CXR-Tretrieval, a retrieval evaluation set constructed through a general protocol that can be applied to any temporal CXR dataset. Experiments on public datasets and real-world hospital cohorts demonstrate that TILA consistently improves progression classification and temporal embedding alignment when applied to multiple existing architectures.

Despite the impressive performance of diffusion models such as Stable Diffusion (SD) in image generation, their slow inference limits practical deployment. Recent works accelerate inference by distilling multi-step diffusion into one-step generators. To better understand the distillation mechanism, we analyze U-Net/DiT weight changes between one-step students and their multi-step teacher counterparts. Our analysis reveals that changes in weight direction significantly exceed those in weight norm, highlighting it as the key factor during distillation. Motivated by this insight, we propose the Low-rank Rotation of weight Direction (LoRaD), a parameter-efficient adapter tailored to one-step diffusion distillation. LoRaD is designed to model these structured directional changes using learnable low-rank rotation matrices. We further integrate LoRaD into Variational Score Distillation (VSD), resulting in Weight Direction-aware Distillation (WaDi)-a novel one-step distillation framework. WaDi achieves state-of-the-art FID scores on COCO 2014 and COCO 2017 while using only approximately 10% of the trainable parameters of the U-Net/DiT. Furthermore, the distilled one-step model demonstrates strong versatility and scalability, generalizing well to various downstream tasks such as controllable generation, relation inversion, and high-resolution synthesis.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often encode whether a statement is true as a vector in their residual stream activations. These vectors, also known as truth vectors, have been studied in prior work, however how they change when context is introduced remains unexplored. We study this question by measuring (1) the directional change (θ) between the truth vectors with and without context and (2) the relative magnitude of the truth vectors upon adding context. Across four LLMs and four datasets, we find that (1) truth vectors are roughly orthogonal in early layers, converge in middle layers, and may stabilize or continue increasing in later layers; (2) adding context generally increases the truth vector magnitude, i.e., the separation between true and false representations in the activation space is amplified; (3) larger models distinguish relevant from irrelevant context mainly through directional change (θ), while smaller models show this distinction through magnitude differences. We also find that context conflicting with parametric knowledge produces larger geometric changes than parametrically aligned context. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides a geometric characterization of how context transforms the truth vector in the activation space of LLMs.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) typically applies a shared scale to all latent tokens, although their velocity predictions evolve differently during sampling. We introduce Trajectory-Adaptive Classifier-Free Guidance (TrajCFG), a training-free method for flow-matching models that adapts token-wise guidance using historical changes in guided velocity direction. TrajCFG maps this feedback to bounded scales, assigning stronger guidance to larger directional changes and weaker guidance to more consistent directions. It combines adjacent-step and interval-normalized longer-span feedback, reusing standard CFG predictions without additional model evaluations. Controlled diagnostics and ablations examine the roles of directional feedback, token-wise allocation, and history-span fusion. Experiments on text-to-video, image-to-video, text-to-audio-video, text-to-image, and image-to-3D generation show improvements over base samplers across multiple backbones. For text-to-video generation, TrajCFG improves VBench Total scores by 0.30-0.75 points over the strongest evaluated baseline on each of three backbones. These results support historical directional feedback as a broadly applicable signal for fine-grained guidance allocation. The project page is available at https://jyliu-98.github.io/trajcfg-project-page/.

Modern neural network training relies on optimizers such as Adam and Muon which act on each weight matrix as a single object. Yet every weight matrix carries two distinct quantities -- a magnitude and a direction -- and all optimizers stepping in the matrix as a whole couple their dynamics: the directional change from an update depends on the current magnitude, while the magnitude drifts as a byproduct of learning the direction, so neither is governed directly by the learning rate. Typical training therefore leans on surrounding recipes such as weight decay and warmup to keep learning stable at scale, though these regulate the coupling only indirectly; other recent methods instead constrain the weight to a fixed-norm sphere, but add no learnable magnitude, leaving scale control to normalization layers alone. We propose Magnitude--Direction (MD) Decoupling, an optimizer modification that factorizes each weight into a fixed-norm direction on a hypersphere and learnable per-row and per-column magnitude gains, updated at separate learning rates, all while the model still sees a single fused weight tensor. The method is agnostic to the base optimizer and removes the need for weight decay and warmup. Across both Adam and Muon, MD Decoupling improves on well-tuned baselines, transfers the optimal LR across model width without retuning, and continues to help at scale on large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Treating magnitude and direction as separately controlled quantities thus yields more predictable training dynamics and a simple, broadly applicable improvement to modern optimizers.

Transformer language models build predictions through successive residual updates, but how their representations become specific to an eventual outcome remains unclear. We study this process by comparing intermediate residual states with their own final states and an empirical bank of final states from other contexts. Across six pretrained language models, the own endpoint becomes preferable to the average alternative early, while many individual endpoints remain closer. These competing sets generally shrink with depth, but their membership changes and their surviving endpoints need not become more similar to one another. Directional alignment and endpoint rank can therefore improve while Euclidean distance to the final state changes little. We develop a simple high-dimensional model that separates the roles of norm, alignment, and endpoint geometry, showing how gradual directional changes can produce sharp reductions in competition. We also prove that a straight path toward the own endpoint cannot introduce new competitors under either Euclidean or cosine distance; observed entries thus establish departures from straight-line convergence. Finally, endpoints associated with lower-ranked output tokens tend to lie farther away in cosine distance across all studied models, connecting residual geometry to output organization. Together, these findings characterize increasing geometric specificity during transformer inference and explain why distance, competitor count, and concentration of the surviving endpoints provide distinct views of that process.

How strongly do the remaining diffusion-sampling steps amplify a perturbation at a late latent state? Standard measurements answer this question with newly sampled isotropic noise, even though perturbations encountered during sampling have already been transformed by earlier steps. We compare these two cases directly. For each trajectory, we transport a centered perturbation from an earlier step to a late state, then replay its direction at the same magnitude as a newly sampled isotropic perturbation; both then undergo the same remaining updates. Across the samplers we study, median paired shaped-to-fresh angular-gain ratios range from 1.14 to 2.35. Shaped angular gain exceeds its matched fresh counterpart in every trajectory in the original main cohorts. The same pattern appears when endpoint change is measured by latent RMS. The effect also appears in perceptual feature representations: earlier-sampling directions cause larger feature changes at the endpoint, even when the corresponding pixel-space change is comparable. Permuting shaped directions across trajectories weakens the effect, including within class, indicating that the advantage depends on alignment with the receiving trajectory as well as on shared directional structure.

Effectively predicting molecular interactions has the potential to accelerate molecular dynamics by multiple orders of magnitude and thus revolutionize chemical simulations. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently shown great successes for this task, overtaking classical methods based on fixed molecular kernels. However, they still appear very limited from a theoretical perspective, since regular GNNs cannot distinguish certain types of graphs. In this work we close this gap between theory and practice. We show that GNNs with spherical representations are indeed universal approximators for predictions that are invariant to translation, and equivariant to permutation and rotation. We then discretize such GNNs via directed edge embeddings and two-hop message passing, and incorporate multiple structural improvements to arrive at the geometric message passing neural network (GemNet). We demonstrate the benefits of the proposed changes in multiple ablation studies. GemNet outperforms previous models on the COLL, MD17, and OC20 datasets by 34%, 41%, and 20%, respectively, and performs especially well on the most challenging molecules. Our implementation is available online.

Semantic change detection (SCD) in remote sensing aims to identify land-cover transitions between bi-temporal observations while suppressing pseudo-changes caused by illumination variations, seasonal differences, and registration errors. Although Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) provide transferable semantic priors, their application to SCD remains challenging due to the mismatch between foundation-model representations and task-specific spatial features, as well as temporal-order sensitivity. To address these issues, this paper proposes SemDINO, an alignment-driven framework that integrates DINOv3 priors with hierarchical convolutional representations for cross-temporal semantic reasoning. Specifically, a Gated Pyramid Fusion (PyFu) module is developed to adaptively combine foundation-model semantics with CNN spatial details while reducing domain noise. A Multi-scale Temporal Bi-directional Transformer (M-TBTT) is introduced to achieve symmetric cross-temporal feature interaction and alleviate temporal-order bias. Furthermore, a Feature Change Enhancement (FeaCE) flow is designed to refine aligned representations and distinguish genuine semantic transitions from pseudo variations. Finally, a multi-branch decoupled prediction head jointly generates change masks, bi-temporal semantic maps, and edge constraints. Extensive experiments across five benchmark datasets demonstrate that SemDINO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both semantic and binary change detection tasks. The results validate the effectiveness of alignment-oriented representation learning for robust remote sensing change analysis. The code will be available in brown{https://github.com/tonxycs/SemDINO}

This paper describes a new technique for finding disentangled semantic directions in the latent space of StyleGAN. Our method identifies meaningful orthogonal subspaces that allow editing of one human face attribute, while minimizing undesired changes in other attributes. Our model is capable of editing a single attribute in multiple directions, resulting in a range of possible generated images. We compare our scheme with three state-of-the-art models and show that our method outperforms them in terms of face editing and disentanglement capabilities. Additionally, we suggest quantitative measures for evaluating attribute separation and disentanglement, and exhibit the superiority of our model with respect to those measures.

Speech deepfake detectors often lose accuracy when the distribution of the test data differs from that of the training data. Meta-learning for domain generalization (MLDG) shows promise by simulating domain shifts with episodic meta-train and meta-test splits. However, the MLDG meta-objective considers only a single clean adaptation trajectory and does not account for the local loss landscape around its endpoints. To address this limitation, we first propose an explicit worst-case MLDG variant, dubbed WC-MLDG-4P, which perturbs both the meta-train and meta-test states but requires four gradient evaluations per episode. We then introduce WC-MLDG-2P, a source-directed alternative to the explicit robust objective. It shifts the clean MLDG endpoint toward a locally higher source-loss state and evaluates the meta-test gradient there, retaining the two-evaluation cost of the first-order MLDG. A first-order expansion relates the resulting gradient change to meta-test directional curvature along the source gradient without explicitly computing a Hessian. Relative to MLDG, WC-MLDG-2P achieves relative mean-EER reductions of 23.4% with XLSR-AASIST and 7.6% with XLSR-Conformer-TCM, respectively.

This work evaluates the direct transfer of a co-evolved communication protocol from a 2D simulation to a 3D physical environment, without retraining the network weights. Two e-puck-type robots, controlled by a GRU network with residual connection, were evaluated in a food-seeking task with social signaling. The sensory and motor translation layer required three corrections for stable physical operation, including the calibration of a hunger term based on a measurable asymmetry in the trained residual weights. Even with these corrections, the transfer was partial and asymmetric: one agent reached the food source in one of thirty tested seeds, while the other did not reach it in any. Task success was measured by both agents reaching the food area. An additional experiment incorporating explicit directional information in the social channel produced observable changes in the trajectory of the receiving agent and improvements in several specific cases. However, these improvements were not enough to allow the second agent to reach the food source, suggesting that the limitation may not be explained solely by signal translation, but also by the ability to navigate under the new physical constraints. The results suggest that successful transfer of emergent communication may depend not only on preserving the signaling process itself, but also on preserving the ecological and navigational conditions under which the protocol evolved.

Policy-shift distillation reuses the difference between a teacher's log probabilities before and after reinforcement learning (RL) as supervision on student-generated trajectories. However, this endpoint policy shift cannot reveal whether local action preferences evolved consistently during teacher training. The same endpoint shift can result from early and late shifts that reinforce or partially cancel each other. We investigate whether agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts can guide selective transfer. We introduce Waypoint-guided On-Policy Distillation (Waypoint-OPD), which uses an intermediate teacher checkpoint from the same RL run to compare early and late shifts in relative action preferences at student-visited prefixes. We gate the endpoint shift according to the directional agreement between the early and late shifts, suppressing it when they point in opposing directions. Compared with endpoint-only transfer, our method requires only one additional frozen-teacher scoring pass. Using RL-trained Qwen3-4B teachers, we evaluate our method with Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-14B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B as student models in mathematical and code reasoning. In all six domain--student settings, Waypoint-OPD achieves the highest domain-average score among the compared distillation methods. Ablations with the Qwen3-8B student show that removing or shuffling gates reduces mathematical reasoning performance. These results support the use of directional agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts to weight the endpoint shift during student training.

Sparse-view computed tomography (CT) reduces radiation dose and acquisition time and may mitigate motion artifacts. However, angular undersampling provides insufficient information to determine the image uniquely and stably. Limited-angle CT, arising from restricted angular coverage, produces strongly directional information loss associated with the missing angular range. In both settings, image directions may be strongly observed, weakly constrained, or unobservable, leading to severe ill-posedness and reconstruction ambiguity. Existing diffusion-based approaches incorporate measurement information through likelihood guidance, data-consistency operations, or range-null-space corrections. However, they do not generally use the continuously varying measurement sensitivity of the acquisition to jointly shape both reconstruction updates and stochastic exploration. We propose a geometry-aware diffusion-guided stochastic reconstruction framework for sparse-view and limited-angle CT. Its central component is a regularized noise-weighted pullback metric constructed from the CT forward operator and measurement-noise covariance. This metric continuously adapts both the measurement-aware update and stochastic exploration according to directional measurement sensitivity, suppressing changes along strongly constrained directions while permitting greater exploration along weakly constrained and unobservable directions. We complement this geometry-aware update with a regularized data-consistency correction and approximately null-space-restricted stochastic perturbations, implemented matrix-free using forward and backprojection operations together with conjugate-gradient solves. Experiments on sparse-view, noisy, and limited-angle CT demonstrate competitive reconstruction quality, strong measurement consistency, and spatially resolved empirical uncertainty estimates.

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of stock price predictions. One such method is Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). HMMs are statistical models that can be used to model the behavior of a partially observable system, making them suitable for modeling stock prices based on historical data. Accurate stock price predictions can help traders make better investment decisions, leading to increased profits. In this article, we trained and tested a Hidden Markov Model for the purpose of predicting a stock closing price based on its opening price and the preceding day's prices. The model's performance has been evaluated using two indicators: Mean Average Prediction Error (MAPE), which specifies the average accuracy of our model, and Directional Prediction Accuracy (DPA), a newly introduced indicator that accounts for the number of fractional change predictions that are correct in sign.

Personality-conditioned LLM agents (PC-Agents) are increasingly used in emotional support, social simulation, and role-playing, motivating the development of lifelong agents that remain coherent over extended interactions. A key component of such coherence is personality evolution: agents should undergo plausible, psychology-grounded changes as they experience life events in different contexts. Although prior work shows that LLM personalities can shift under contextual perturbations, how these shifts vary across traits, events, personas, and models remains poorly understood. We study event-induced personality change after 11 major life events, using the Big Five traits as a psychometric anchor and interpreting the resulting trajectories against longitudinal evidence from human personality psychology. Across four diagnostic axes, PC-Agents exhibit measurable trait shifts at similar rates for event-trait pairs with and without documented human change directions. Even when shifts follow the expected direction, their magnitudes usually fall below human effect-size ranges. Gender and cultural-region prompts show little moderating effect, while persona-level dispersion is compressed three- to four-fold relative to human samples. To enable systematic comparison, we introduce BFI-Adapt, a reusable benchmark for scoring the directional fidelity of event-induced personality change, and use it to rank 14 models. A validation suite shows that the measured shifts exceed no-event retest noise, remain stable under independently paraphrased prompts, exhibit limited and model-dependent convergence with scenario-based behavioral choices, and persist across intervening unrelated dialogue. Together, these checks establish the measured trajectories as robust event-conditioned response patterns. Our results suggest that current PC-Agents simulate the mean of human personality dynamics, but not its shape.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judgment assistants and as stand-in participants in psychology experiments, yet little is known about how much their probability estimates move in response to a single new piece of information. We pair premise-hypothesis items from δ-SNLI with one strengthener and one weakener each, elicit the prior and the posteriors in separate calls, and measure the directional movement s: the mean posterior change signed by the annotated direction, so that the prior cancels out. We vary whether the update is stated ("Here is something else you learned") or reported ("Someone said that"), and whether the model gives one probability or five weighted estimates. We test seven configurations: two local models (Qwen3-8B, OLMo-2-7B; 240 pairs) and five configurations run through agent command-line harnesses (120 pairs), with hypotheses and analysis rules fixed before the formal runs (not publicly registered). Under stated, direct elicitation all seven move in the annotated direction (s = 18-28 percentage points). Reporting lowers s in all seven point estimates (significantly in six, by 2-5 points) and raises the share of reverse movements in all seven: the effect is consistent but small. Five weighted estimates lower the share of responses at leq5% or geq95% in all seven, but in the two local models they also reduce s by 43% and 68%, whereas in the harnessed configurations the point estimates of the change lie between -3.7 and +0.5 points. An elicitation format that reduces extreme values thus need not preserve sensitivity to evidence; the two should be tested separately. Because δ-NLI annotates only direction, we make no claim about how large an update should be. Code, data and the frozen plan: https://github.com/asj252/llm-judgment-studies

In longitudinal clinical practice, every chest X-ray is read in the context of the patients prior exam, and much of what the radiologist communicates is the change from one visit to the next. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first training-free best-of-N sampling scheme for pre-trained chest X-ray report generators that is explicitly aware of this longitudinal prior to current transition. We call it transition-aware best-of-N sampling, each report is split into sentences and embedded into an unordered set in Rd; each (prior, current) pair is reduced to a fixed-dim directional vector via a set-to-set distance designed to encode the change between the two sets; and candidates are scored by cosine distance from their candidate transition vector to a cached bank of ground-truth training transition vectors, aggregated as min or kNN. We instantiate the framework with four directional set distances (mean-shift, novelty residual, directed-Hausdorff anchor, and cost-weighted optimal transport) and evaluate on a multi-visit AP-PA cohort, running inference under three prompts on three vision-language generators. Transition-aware best-of-N outperforms random selection across the board, with the largest relative gains on the Impression section.

A cumulative variational framework for solid deformation is proposed. Its central organizing principle is the recursive combination of three structural components of one material body: a compatible Cosserat component, a distributed-incompatibility component, and a defect-source component. At any prescribed external condition these components constitute a combined material state. They are governed under common physical boundary and initial conditions and are coupled through one cumulative energy and the associated field equations. They are not separate boundary-value problems and need not appear in a prescribed temporal sequence. The cumulative character of the framework concerns the response of the combined state to variation of externally prescribed conditions. For the special case of an initially perfect body, loss of stability may produce successive branches with defect and then source participation. Such a sequence is a bifurcation property of the selected initial state and constitutive energy, rather than a defining hierarchy of the framework. A one-dimensional specialization illustrates structural bifurcation, residual deformation and residual stress produced by retained structure, dependence on the initial combined state, directional memory under reverse loading, parametric cumulative hysteresis, and changes of observable tangent stiffness associated with structural stabilization. A spatial extension introduces defect and source gradient terms and yields a size-dependent structural stability operator. For the stable quartic energy considered, the gradient terms regularize nonuniform perturbations but do not by themselves generate a finite-wavelength localization instability on an already stable three-component branch. The examples thereby distinguish consequences of the cumulative structure and energy from phenomena requiring additional constitutive evolution laws.

Decision APIs that return a probability for each option are routinely used as if those probabilities were properties of the options themselves. That reading is valid only if the model satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): adding an option that is neither the right answer nor its strongest rival should leave the odds between those two unchanged. We test this in a pre-registered study of jev-1.13.0, a hosted decision model, using 299,463 calls on intent classification (BANKING77, CLINC150) and topic classification (AG News). Every added option moves the log-odds between the gold label and the strongest wrong label: the root-mean-square systematic shift is 0.20-0.52 nats, 1.2 to 3 times the run-to-run variation, even when the added option takes at most 0.1% of the probability mass. The shifts are directional. An option similar to the wrong answer draws probability from it (+0.10 nats toward the gold label). A paraphrase of the wrong answer produces an intermediate pattern: the gold label's probability is almost conserved, but the paraphrase receives only about a third of the wrong answer's share rather than the half that strict substitution implies. The distortion grows steadily with the logarithm of the number of options, reaching about 1 nat at 255 options, and off-domain padding pushes the odds against the gold label. In contrast, questions packed into one call do not interact (bias < 0.001). Scoring each option with an independent yes/no question removes the option-set dependence but picks the right answer 8.7 points less often. Jev sits between two local baselines, an option-independent scorer and a prompt readout. Its probabilities are best read as relative to the option list they were computed over.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the magnitude of these updates, largely overlooking their direction. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference Δlog p between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that Δlog p more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (\eg divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a test-time extrapolation method that amplifies the policy along the learned Δlog p direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a training-time reweighting method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher Δlog p) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.

The interaction between the Earths surface and the atmosphere plays a key role in the initiation of cumulus convection. Over the land surface, a necessary boundary condition to consider for resolving land-atmosphere interactions is soil moisture. The aim in the study is twofold. One, through object oriented and traditional verification techniques determine how higher resolution soil moisture initial conditions influences the prediction of the location and timing of convective initiation (CI) within a convective permitting, operational NWP model over South Africa. Two, to study the modelled CI-soil moisture relationship during real afternoon thunderstorm events. The study reports the results from 66 Unified Model simulations (at 4.4km grid resolution) for nine summer afternoon CI events during synoptically benign conditions over South Africa. The higher resolution soil moisture conditions reduce centroid distance between observed and forecast storms on average by 7km (9 percent improvement), with the most decrease in centroid distance occurring at the shortest lead times, by 12km. Most improvement in location error occurs in the zonal directional. However, little to no difference is found in the timing of CI, most likely attributable to the dominant effect of model grid size on CI timing, overshadowing the influence from soil moisture anomalies. Probability of CI is highest over dry and moderate soils and areas along distinct soil moisture gradients. The conclusion is that modelled CI over South Africa preferentially occurs on the periphery of wet soil moisture patches, where there is increased surface convergence of wind and higher sensible heat flux.

Language model representations often contain linear directions that correspond to high-level concepts. Here, we study the dynamics of these representations: how representations evolve along these dimensions within the context of (simulated) conversations. We find that linear representations can change dramatically over a conversation; for example, information that is represented as factual at the beginning of a conversation can be represented as non-factual at the end and vice versa. These changes are content-dependent; while representations of conversation-relevant information may change, generic information is generally preserved. These changes are robust even for dimensions that disentangle factuality from more superficial response patterns, and occur across different model families and layers of the model. These representation changes do not require on-policy conversations; even replaying a conversation script written by an entirely different model can produce similar changes. However, adaptation is much weaker from simply having a sci-fi story in context that is framed more explicitly as such. We also show that steering along a representational direction can have dramatically different effects at different points in a conversation. These results are consistent with the idea that representations may evolve in response to the model playing a particular role that is cued by a conversation. Our findings may pose challenges for interpretability and steering -- in particular, they imply that it may be misleading to use static interpretations of features or directions, or probes that assume a particular range of features consistently corresponds to a particular ground-truth value. However, these types of representational dynamics also point to exciting new research directions for understanding how models adapt to context.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Historical language change affects morphology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics, yet computational studies typically examine these levels with incompatible representations and therefore cannot determine whether they evolve together across languages. We address this problem by asking how the magnitude and direction of change vary across linguistic levels, languages, and historical periods within a single analytical space. We introduce ChronoLens, a framework that combines frozen multilingual language models, feature-aligned crosscoders, and post-hoc linguistic interventions, and apply it to 44.98 million documents and approximately 17.2 billion tokens from five parliamentary traditions spanning 1803--2026. The resulting sparse representations agree substantially more strongly with linguistic statistics than dense embeddings or a pooled sparse autoencoder (ρ=0.72 versus 0.29 and 0.28), and reveal that morphology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics generally change by comparable amounts within a language, while languages differ markedly in when, how far, and in which direction they change. These findings show that historical language change is a structured, multidimensional process: similar magnitudes can conceal different trajectories, and meaningful cross-linguistic comparison requires measuring both distance and direction.

Directional ablation removes an aligned language model's ability to refuse by projecting a single "refusal direction" out of the weights that write the residual stream. It needs no gradient-based training and no optimization, only a few hundred contrastive prompts, which makes it the canonical white-box attack on open-weight alignment. However, it has been established only on dense models up to roughly 70B parameters. We study whether it survives the shift to frontier mixture-of-experts (MoE) models whose residual streams are no longer a single tensor and whose weights ship quantized. We apply it to GLM-5.3-Flash (320B parameters, 288 routed experts, a four-wide hyper-connection residual, block-FP8). The attack survives the architecture, but what it reaches is no longer where a reader of the original recipe would look for it. Editing the attention, dense and routed-expert writers on their own removes 0.039, 0.016 and 0.148 of refusal respectively; editing all three together removes 0.776. As a result, 74% of the effect exists only under the joint intervention. The part the conventional recipe reaches by module-name matching accounts for 0.066 of that 0.776, which is why it fails silently on an MoE. The effect does not follow from removing just any direction: ablating a random direction orthogonal to it leaves refusal unchanged. A category-concentrated residue survives every edit we tried: subspaces fitted on violence, sexual content and hate leave measurable refusal at every rank from 1 to 12. We report the method, the 41-89 percentage-point reductions it achieves across seven harmful benchmarks with no detected change in capability, and the boundary where it stops.

Fine-tuning instruct models often improves target performance while inducing behavioral drift from the reference model, which can degrade existing capabilities. Rather than treating this drift as an uncontrolled consequence of optimization, we specify a behavioral drift budget before optimization and ask how to boost the target-task performance within it. Locally, behavioral drift induces a shared geometry anchored at the reference model, with the drift budget defining a boundary within this space. In this space, drift determines distance from the reference, leaving update direction as the remaining degree of freedom. Fine-tuning updates can therefore be compared through their directional efficiency, naturally reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. This reformulation makes a concrete prediction: changing the accessible directions can qualitatively alter the outcome of fine-tuning. We test this prediction in a stringent QA-only setting, where strong instruct models are fine-tuned only on final answers but must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference. Despite this mismatch, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning and reveals the existence of effective directions, with multiple neighboring configurations improving target performance while preserving reasoning and general capabilities. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation. Over more than 100 languages, the resulting models match or outperform dedicated translation systems and provide a stronger initialization for subsequent reinforcement learning. Our results suggest that fine-tuning is not just about how much a model changes, but how that change is spent. https://github.com/CONE-MT/DCO and https://huggingface.co/collections/LLaMAX/dco

Predicting how a patient's vital signs respond to an intervention is a central question in intensive care. World models can do so by learning dynamics as a function of prior actions. However, such models tend to be brittle outside of training data. Clinicians choose drug dosages based on the patient's state, so the association a model learns between dose and outcome runs opposite to the drug's effect, generalizing poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) dosing practices. Yet, pharmacological information provides the directional effects of different drugs, which are invariant to OOD shifts. To resolve the OOD sensitivity of current ICU world models, we introduce PHYSIO WORLD, which isolates an intervention's effect by evaluating a forward pass twice: once under recorded doses, and once with those doses set to zero. The difference is projected onto pharmacologically admissible effect directions stated by 70 rules over 28 drugs, leaving the magnitude to be learned from data. Across five distribution-shift parameters over cohorts from three intensive-care databases, and against forecasters, counterfactual models, and invariance objectives, PHYSIO WORLD attains the lowest OOD RMSE in every setting, improving on the strongest external baseline by 8-12%, while matching the in-distribution error of its backbone. Reversing the pharmacological directions degrades accuracy below the backbone, and data-mined directions recover almost no gain, indicating the improvement derives from the content of the pharmacological knowledge. The construction may extend to other settings where the sign of an effect is known in advance and its magnitude is confounded by treatment assignment.

Deciding whether to call a tool is a core competence of an LLM agent, and a costly one to get wrong: needless calls add latency, accrue cost, and may trigger irreversible side effects, while missing calls leave the model confidently wrong on questions it could only answer through tool-calls. Models manage this balance poorly, both over-using and under-using tools. Existing methods such as post-training and prompt engineering are expensive and difficult to modify at inference time. We show that whether an instruction-tuned model calls a tool can be controlled by a single linear direction in its residual stream, extracted without any training from the model's own tool-use preference signal and turned into an inference-time intervention with no prompt change. Adding the direction with strength α moves the call rate monotonically from near 0% to over 90% while keeping calls well-formed. The steering works in both directions: dialing it down suppresses calls, and dialing it up induces new calls that land precisely on the questions the model cannot answer from its own knowledge. We also show that the direction generalizes to unseen tools with strength comparable to each tool's own direction and without favoring any specific tool choice. With live tool execution, a single sweep of the steering traces a cost/accuracy Pareto frontier and nearly doubles open-domain QA accuracy (0.29 ! rightarrow ! 0.56); the same recipe transfers across a diverse range of models spanning dense, MoE, and multimodal architectures, without any training. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuqiChen4188/Steering-Tool-Use-Propensity.

Natural selection for terrestrial locomotion has yielded unifying patterns in the body shape of legged animals, often manifesting as scaling laws. One such pattern appears in the frontal aspect ratio. Smaller animals like insects typically adopt a landscape frontal aspect ratio, with a wider side-to-side base of support than center of mass height. Larger animals like elephants, however, are taller than wide with a portrait aspect ratio. Known explanations for postural scaling are restricted to animal groups with similar anatomical and behavioural motifs, but the trend in frontal aspect ratio transcends such commonalities. Here we show that vertebrates and invertebrates with diverse body plans, ranging in mass from 28 mg to 22000 kg, exhibit size-dependent scaling of the frontal aspect ratio driven by the need for lateral stability on uneven natural terrain. Because natural terrain exhibit scale-dependent unevenness, and the frontal aspect ratio is important for lateral stability during locomotion, smaller animals need a wider aspect ratio for stability. This prediction is based on the fractal property of natural terrain unevenness, requires no anatomical or behavioural parameters, and agrees with the measured scaling despite vast anatomical and behavioural differences. Furthermore, a statistical phylogenetic comparative analysis found that shared ancestry and random trait evolution cannot explain the measured scaling. Thus, our findings reveal that terrain roughness, acting through natural selection for stability, likely drove the macroevolution of frontal shape in terrestrial animals.

When contextual information conflicts with the knowledge stored in model parameters, activation directions can be used to decode and steer which source the model follows. However, steering along a direction does not establish causality: whether the unedited model would naturally use that direction or whether the direction is reusable across tasks. We test these distinctions through counterfactual experiments in unambiguous settings. First, we estimate authority directions from agreement prompts, in which the context and parametric knowledge support the same answer. We then interchange naturally occurring coordinates along these directions between matched prompts that direct the model to prioritize either the supplied context or its parametric knowledge. Across Qwen, Llama, and OLMo models, this intervention reproduces 30-68% of the authority-induced shift in source choice, whereas matched controls reproduce almost none. To test cross-task reuse, we learn authority directions on two tasks separately and see that cross-task transferability closes only 9% of the authority gap while the local direction learned on the given task closes 57%. These results distinguish authority representation, causal use, and cross-task causal reuse, and suggest that authority computations may be task-dependent, rather than reusable across tasks.

Change detection (CD) is fundamental to computer vision and remote sensing, supporting applications in environmental monitoring, disaster response, and urban development. Most CD models assume co-registered inputs, yet real-world imagery often exhibits parallax, viewpoint shifts, and long temporal gaps that cause severe misalignment. Traditional two stage methods that first register and then detect, as well as recent joint frameworks (e.g., BiFA, ChangeRD), still struggle under large displacements, relying on regression only flow, global homographies, or synthetic perturbations. We present DiffRegCD, an integrated framework that unifies dense registration and change detection in a single model. DiffRegCD reformulates correspondence estimation as a Gaussian smoothed classification task, achieving sub-pixel accuracy and stable training. It leverages frozen multi-scale features from a pretrained denoising diffusion model, ensuring robustness to illumination and viewpoint variation. Supervision is provided through controlled affine perturbations applied to standard CD datasets, yielding paired ground truth for both flow and change detection without pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on aerial (LEVIR-CD, DSIFN-CD, WHU-CD, SYSU-CD) and ground level (VL-CMU-CD) datasets show that DiffRegCD consistently surpasses recent baselines and remains reliable under wide temporal and geometric variation, establishing diffusion features and classification based correspondence as a strong foundation for unified change detection.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Urban transformations have profound societal impact on both individuals and communities at large. Accurately assessing these shifts is essential for understanding their underlying causes and ensuring sustainable urban planning. Traditional measurements often encounter constraints in spatial and temporal granularity, failing to capture real-time physical changes. While street view imagery, capturing the heartbeat of urban spaces from a pedestrian point of view, can add as a high-definition, up-to-date, and on-the-ground visual proxy of urban change. We curate the largest street view time series dataset to date, and propose an end-to-end change detection model to effectively capture physical alterations in the built environment at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method by benchmark comparisons with previous literature and implementing it at the city-wide level. Our approach has the potential to supplement existing dataset and serve as a fine-grained and accurate assessment of urban change.

Using solar-cycle long helioseismic measurements of meridional and zonal flows in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) of the Sun, we study their spatio-temporal variations and connections to active regions. We find that near-surface inflows towards active latitudes are part of a local circulation with an outflow away from them at depths around 0.97 R, which is also the location where the deviations in the radial gradient of rotation change sign. These results, together with opposite-signed changes over latitude and depth in the above quantities observed during the solar minimum period, point to the action of the Coriolis force on large-scale flows as the primary cause of changes in the rotation gradient within the NSSL. We also find that such Coriolis force-mediated changes in near-surface flows towards active latitudes only marginally change the amplitude of zonal flow and hence are not likely to be its driving force. Our measurements typically achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio (>5σ) for near-surface flows but can drop to 3σ near the base (0.95 R) of the NSSL. Close agreements between the depth profiles of changes in rotation gradient and in meridional flows measured from quite different global and local helioseismic techniques, respectively, show that the results are not dependent on the analysis techniques.