Daily Papers

This paper addresses emerging system-level challenges in heterogeneous retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) serving, where complex multi-stage workflows and diverse request patterns complicate efficient execution. We present HedraRAG, a runtime system built on a graph-based abstraction that exposes optimization opportunities across stage-level parallelism, intra-request similarity, and inter-request skewness. These opportunities are realized through dynamic graph transformations, such as node splitting, reordering, edge addition, and dependency rewiring, applied to wavefronts of subgraphs spanning concurrent requests. The resulting execution plans are mapped onto hybrid CPU-GPU pipelines to improve resource utilization and reduce latency. Evaluations across a wide range of RAG workflows demonstrate speedups exceeding 1.5x and reaching up to 5x over existing frameworks, showcasing the effectiveness of coordinated generation and retrieval in serving environments.

We study the problem of multi-task learning under user-level differential privacy, in which n users contribute data to m tasks, each involving a subset of users. One important aspect of the problem, that can significantly impact quality, is the distribution skew among tasks. Certain tasks may have much fewer data samples than others, making them more susceptible to the noise added for privacy. It is natural to ask whether algorithms can adapt to this skew to improve the overall utility. We give a systematic analysis of the problem, by studying how to optimally allocate a user's privacy budget among tasks. We propose a generic algorithm, based on an adaptive reweighting of the empirical loss, and show that when there is task distribution skew, this gives a quantifiable improvement of excess empirical risk. Experimental studies on recommendation problems that exhibit a long tail of small tasks, demonstrate that our methods significantly improve utility, achieving the state of the art on two standard benchmarks.

Reordering multiple-choice options can change a model's answer, an effect studied as selection bias (a preference for certain option letters) and as order sensitivity (changes in answers across option orderings). We connect these perspectives through the pooled selection-rate standard deviation (pooled SD), which measures how unevenly option letters are selected across questions and orderings. When every option of each question appears equally often at each position, the pooled SD is exactly the product of two label-free factors: the flip rate and the positional skew. The flip rate is the fraction of questions whose chosen option changes across orderings; the positional skew is the standard deviation of option-letter selection rates among those questions. Across 41 checkpoints and 12 benchmarks, the flip rate tracks accuracy and output uncertainty, while the positional skew tracks the estimated option-symbol prior. Prior correction for selection bias mainly reduces the positional skew. Aggregating each ordering with its reversal, a mitigation for order sensitivity, mainly reduces the flip rate. Both reduce the range of accuracy across correct-answer letters by similar amounts, but aggregation leaves fewer model-rank reversals. Applying prior correction before aggregation reduces both factors and further narrows this accuracy range. However, aggregation lowers the flip rate partly by settling questions on the same wrong option. We therefore recommend reporting both factors to distinguish mitigation effects, alongside accuracy to distinguish stability from correctness.

Dense retrievers exhibit positional bias, favoring documents whose query-relevant information appears near the beginning and degrading retrieval performance when the information appears later. While prior work on positional bias in dense retrievers has largely focused on architectural explanations, we study how the positional distribution of evidence in training data affects retrieval-level bias direction. To test this, we construct synthetic position-targeted training sets in which query-relevant evidence appears at the beginning, middle, or end of documents, and fine-tune eight architecturally diverse pretrained models under position-skewed and balanced training distributions. At the ranking level, we observe a strong directional pattern across the examined models: skewed training distributions favor evidence at the corresponding positions. Position-balanced training reduces positional sensitivity by 57--87\% on position-aware benchmarks, with competitive mean retrieval performance in our controlled setting. Representation-level analyses further suggest that fine-tuning often reshapes learned positional preferences, although pre-existing architectural or pretraining-specific tendencies persist in some models. These results identify training-position distribution as a major controllable factor in retrieval-level position bias and suggest balanced data curation as a practical mitigation strategy.

AlltoAll dispatch is the dominant bottleneck of MoE expert parallelism, and the interconnect community has responded with four families of mitigations: predictive sample placement, adaptive expert relayout, hierarchical collectives, and EP-aware topology. All four rest on two assumptions about the workload: that routing imbalance is correctable by the system layer, and that the mock-token benchmarks evaluating them faithfully represent production routing. We introduce DODOCO to test both, instrumenting five open MoE checkpoints that span today's sequence-mixer designs (MHA, MLA, GQA, Gated DeltaNet and Mamba-2 SSM) under a factorial grid of six data conditions and a matched expert-parallelism scan on H100 clusters. Both assumptions fail. Scaling EP leaves per-expert load concentration essentially unchanged: the straggler is intrinsic to the routing decision the model makes, not to how its experts land on ranks. Mock tokens overestimate routing imbalance by up to a factor of 2.35, and the error is a level offset rather than a trend: it stays flat across a 32times batch-size sweep. Skewing the synthetic distribution toward realism (Zipf) widens the gap instead of closing it. A third pattern organizes the results: the architectures separate into a data-resilient band (MHA, Mamba-2), whose routing approaches uniform on real text, and a persistently concentrated band (MLA, GDN), with GQA intermediate. These bands, not the EP degree or the mock-data profile, are the right workload input to AlltoAll-aware interconnect and dispatch design.

Retrieval benchmarks are increasingly saturating, but we argue that efficient search is far from a solved problem. We identify a class of queries we call oblique, which seek documents that instantiate a latent pattern, like finding all tweets that express an implicit stance, chat logs that demonstrate a particular failure mode, or transcripts that match an abstract scenario. We study three mechanisms through which obliqueness may arise and introduce OBLIQ-Bench, a suite of five oblique search problems over real long-tail corpora. OBLIQ-Bench exposes an overlooked asymmetry between retrieval and verification, where reasoning LLMs reliably recognize latent relevance whenever relevant documents are surfaced, but even sophisticated retrieval pipelines fail to surface most relevant documents in the first place. We hope that OBLIQ-Bench will drive research into retrieval architectures that efficiently capture latent patterns and implicit signals in large corpora.

The enormous financial success of online advertising platforms is partially due to the precise targeting features they offer. Although researchers and journalists have found many ways that advertisers can target---or exclude---particular groups of users seeing their ads, comparatively little attention has been paid to the implications of the platform's ad delivery process, comprised of the platform's choices about which users see which ads. It has been hypothesized that this process can "skew" ad delivery in ways that the advertisers do not intend, making some users less likely than others to see particular ads based on their demographic characteristics. In this paper, we demonstrate that such skewed delivery occurs on Facebook, due to market and financial optimization effects as well as the platform's own predictions about the "relevance" of ads to different groups of users. We find that both the advertiser's budget and the content of the ad each significantly contribute to the skew of Facebook's ad delivery. Critically, we observe significant skew in delivery along gender and racial lines for "real" ads for employment and housing opportunities despite neutral targeting parameters. Our results demonstrate previously unknown mechanisms that can lead to potentially discriminatory ad delivery, even when advertisers set their targeting parameters to be highly inclusive. This underscores the need for policymakers and platforms to carefully consider the role of the ad delivery optimization run by ad platforms themselves---and not just the targeting choices of advertisers---in preventing discrimination in digital advertising.

Advanced LLMs have achieved near-ceiling instruction-following accuracy on benchmarks such as IFEval. However, these impressive scores do not necessarily translate to reliable services in real-world use, where users often vary their phrasing, contextual framing, and task formulations. In this paper, we study nuance-oriented reliability: whether models exhibit consistent competence across cousin prompts that convey analogous user intents but with subtle nuances. To quantify this, we introduce a new metric, reliable@k, and develop an automated pipeline that generates high-quality cousin prompts via data augmentation. Building upon this, we construct IFEval++ for systematic evaluation. Across 20 proprietary and 26 open-source LLMs, we find that current models exhibit substantial insufficiency in nuance-oriented reliability -- their performance can drop by up to 61.8% with nuanced prompt modifications. What's more, we characterize it and explore three potential improvement recipes. Our findings highlight nuance-oriented reliability as a crucial yet underexplored next step toward more dependable and trustworthy LLM behavior. Our code and benchmark are accessible: https://github.com/jianshuod/IFEval-pp.

Offline batch inference, which leverages the flexibility of request batching to achieve higher throughput and lower costs, is becoming more popular for latency-insensitive applications. Meanwhile, recent progress in model capability and modality makes requests more diverse in compute and memory demands, creating unique opportunities for throughput improvement by resource overlapping. However, a request schedule that maximizes resource overlapping can conflict with the schedule that maximizes prefix sharing, a widely-used performance optimization, causing sub-optimal inference throughput. We present BlendServe, a system that maximizes resource utilization of offline batch inference by combining the benefits of resource overlapping and prefix sharing using a resource-aware prefix tree. BlendServe exploits the relaxed latency requirements in offline batch inference to reorder and overlap requests with varied resource demands while ensuring high prefix sharing. We evaluate BlendServe on a variety of synthetic multi-modal workloads and show that it provides up to 1.44times throughput boost compared to widely-used industry standards, vLLM and SGLang.

Evaluation budgets in agentic retrieval-augmented generation span questions, search trajectories, and repeated answers. We measure allocation precision, reading efficiency, and cost boundaries using a retrieval-feedback comparison on HotpotQA and MuSiQue. At 34.14--34.39M model tokens, broader question coverage lowers standard error by 33\% versus five reads and 12.6\% versus three trajectories. Archived nested and Q-only forecasts predict these allocations within 4.0\% and 3.5\%, respectively. Depth subsets establish no clear forecasting advantage beyond the two-trajectory audit. One-read variance penalties relative to the fitted optimum at the same token budget are 0--9.9\%, with substantial Pro uncertainty. Under recorded model fees, more questions beat more trajectories at search prices of \$0--1 per 1,000 requests; question-versus-read fee rankings remain unresolved. Temperature zero cuts answer disagreement from 14.3\% to 3.4\% while comparison precision stays similar. \par\medskip\noindentKeywords: Agentic RAG; Evaluation budget; Generalizability theory; Repeated sampling.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Moving ML-mediated decision making onto privacy-preserving clients decentralises the economic decision along with the inference. Shared budget constraints then depend on information that cannot be globally current, creating an information-structure failure that conventional pacing is not designed to solve. We study this information misalignment in an auction-logic-faithful on-device simulation with 36 campaigns and 50 devices. Accounting is in dimensionless integer score units; no currency semantics are claimed. Across 30 paired demand paths, proportional Even pacing overspends 17.77% after one tick of staleness and 1,669.31% after 50 ticks under the original 20-times budget pressure. The effect does not depend on that severe a budget: at two-times pressure, 50-tick overspend remains 106.95%. A visible-budget no-sale guard makes zero-lag compliance exact at this score-unit granularity, yet leaves 11.88% overspend at one tick because other devices' debits remain invisible. A declared bursty, heterogeneous-device sweep retains a strictly increasing mean lag curve. We derive a finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps and find positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell. A second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units: 98.23% of rival auctions at one tick admit a profitable deviation. An executable implementation-level counterexample isolates the runner-up's multiplier in the winner's price. Critical-base-bid payment is per-auction DSIC conditional on current multipliers, but does not establish dynamic truthfulness and does not repair base-value ranking disagreement.

Banking assistants must use account-specific information to answer requests and, in many cases, take actions through tools. Evaluating only the final response misses important errors. An assistant may ask for information it already has, rely on stale context, select the wrong account, or write an invalid value after stating the correct one. We introduce IndicBankBench, a 799-case benchmark for Indian retail banking spanning five operational domains, a capability/refusal domain, and twenty primary axes. Cases are evaluated at four stages: safety, action and tool use, response adequacy, and advisory quality. Tool use and most safety checks are deterministic. A narrow resolver handles only ambiguous confirmation-before-write cases, while a separate LLM judge evaluates semantic response adequacy. We run every case three times and report strict pass^3, which requires success on all trials. Across the eleven evaluated models, strict reliability ranges from 43.7% to 58.2%, whereas at-least-once success ranges from 60% to 74%. This gap shows that at-least-once success can overstate dependable banking behavior. The case-level diagnostics also distinguish systems that ask unnecessary questions from those that act but fail to reconcile customer context or fully resolve the request. We release the cases, mock environment, and evaluation harness.

Coding agents are now commonly evaluated on the SWE-bench family of benchmarks, whose tasks are built from curated GitHub issues: long, structured, and information-rich. Real user requests, however, are typically far shorter and less structured. To characterize this gap, we define a six-category information taxonomy and four dimensions of linguistic style, and apply them to real user prompts from SWE-chat and problem statements from SWE-bench Verified and Pro. We find that requests carrying only a problem statement, alone or with limited additional context, account for 88% of real prompts but just 7% of benchmark problems. Furthermore, 87% of real prompts are casually written whereas 94% of benchmark problems are formal. Guided by these observations, we introduce RealSWE, 381 multi-variant task families derived from SWE-bench Verified and Pro. Variants within each family share the same underlying task and gold patch while differing only in information composition and linguistic style. Evaluating seven contemporary LLMs with RealSWE, we find that i) realistic inputs reduce resolution rates by 6.4 pp on average and can change model rankings. Controlled analysis further shows that ii) including Desired Behavior and Motivation significantly affects performance, whereas Environment Information and Reproduction Steps merely add tokens without measurable benefit; iii) linguistic style has only small, model-dependent effects. These findings provide actionable guidance for users and agents: explicitly stating the desired behavior and motivation, which most real prompts omit, substantially improves the LLM's software engineering performance.

Making an open-weight language model generate text is not the same as making it finish coding work. This retrospective empirical systems experience report follows my engineering work from July to October 2026 across coding clients, model-specific serving recipes, vLLM, SGLang, llama.cpp, and MLX. Models behind a nominally compatible endpoint still differed in tool-call formatting, turn control, context behavior, cache reuse, and reliability. A served model, coherent text, executed tool calls, and code that passes independent behavioral checks proved to be distinct levels of progress. The evidence includes 4,165 coding-agent gateway turns from my own sessions, 623 debug jobs, and three separate delegation studies with hidden behavioral checks and a fixed Claude Opus 5.5 parent. Saved cold-prefix requests had a median time to first token of about 69.4 s, versus 2.8 s for high-reuse requests (observational). In a 45-trial study, direct coding passed 15/15 and delegation to a quantized Qwen3-Coder 30B-A3B worker passed 12/15 and 14/15. On a second 15-task suite under a fixed artifact contract, the completed replacement cohort had 45/45 for direct coding and 12/45 for a Nemotron Cascade 2 worker (11 worker substitutions). Sixteen sessions stopped by a subscription limit before any model call were replaced; counting them as failures gives 37/45 and 8/45. A Qwen3-Coder worker passed 0/45. In both studies with a direct arm, direct coding had lower API list-price-equivalent frontier cost per verified success. A post-hoc diagnostic found that 19 of 36 artifacts rejected only for renamed parameters passed the hidden checks unchanged; they are not counted as successes. The contribution is an evidence-qualified account of serving, agent protocol, session continuity, artifact validation, and verification in practice. The studies are not pooled and do not rank models or runtimes.

A retrieval-augmented QA system can return different answers after an index expansion even when its requested model identifier, prompt, retrieval policy, evidence depth, rendering, and exposed generation controls are held fixed. Aggregate accuracy may hide these changes when gains and losses cancel, while ordinary generation variability makes one-shot comparisons overstate update effects. We call the hidden phenomenon accuracy-blind answer churn and introduce the Snapshot Compatibility Audit, which estimates excess answer churn by subtracting same-snapshot repeat disagreement from cross-snapshot disagreement. We instantiate it by expanding one frozen FineWeb prefix from one to seven shards. In a preregistered 400-question Natural Questions study, normalized-exact and blinded-semantic excess churn are 6.44 and 10.25 percentage points while exact-match accuracy changes by only -1.50 points. A post-hoc analysis finds repeat-stable semantic flips on 40/400 questions. A separately preregistered 200-question TriviaQA study yields smaller, directionally consistent excess churn while exact-match accuracy moves in the opposite direction. An outcome-blind post-hoc 100-question subset replication with a second DeepSeek generator and serving configuration finds 8.75 pp of semantic excess churn even as exact match rises by 3.00 percentage points. Answer-level compatibility can therefore fail without a conspicuous or consistently directed utility shift. Retrieval-augmented releases should audit compatibility alongside utility.

Serving numerous users and requests concurrently requires good fairness in Large Language Models (LLMs) serving system. This ensures that, at the same cost, the system can meet the Service Level Objectives (SLOs) of more users , such as time to first token (TTFT) and time between tokens (TBT), rather than allowing a few users to experience performance far exceeding the SLOs. To achieve better fairness, the preemption-based scheduling policy dynamically adjusts the priority of each request to maintain balance during runtime. However, existing systems tend to overly prioritize throughput, overlooking the overhead caused by preemption-induced context switching, which is crucial for maintaining fairness through priority adjustments. In this work, we identify three main challenges that result in this overhead. 1) Inadequate I/O utilization. 2) GPU idleness. 3) Unnecessary I/O transmission during multi-turn conversations. Our key insight is that the block-based KV cache memory policy in existing systems, while achieving near-zero memory waste, leads to discontinuity and insufficient granularity in the KV cache memory. To respond, we introduce FastSwitch, a fairness-aware serving system that not only aligns with existing KV cache memory allocation policy but also mitigates context switching overhead. Our evaluation shows that FastSwitch outperforms the state-of-the-art LLM serving system vLLM with speedups of 1.4-11.2x across different tail TTFT and TBT.

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into applications ranging from interactive chatbots to multi-agent systems has introduced a wide spectrum of service-level objectives (SLOs) for responsiveness. These include latency-sensitive requests emphasizing per-token latency in streaming chat, deadline-sensitive requests requiring rapid full responses to trigger external tools, and compound requests with evolving dependencies across multiple LLM calls. Despite-or perhaps, because of-this workload diversity and unpredictable request information (e.g., response lengths and dependencies), existing request schedulers have focused on aggregate performance, unable to ensure application-level SLO needs. This paper presents JITServe, the first SLO-aware LLM serving system designed to maximize service goodput (e.g., the number of tokens meeting request SLOs) across diverse workloads. JITServe novelly schedules requests using imprecise request information and gradually relaxes this conservatism by refining request information estimates as generation progresses. It applies a grouped margin goodput maximization algorithm to allocate just enough serving bandwidth to satisfy each request's SLO just-in-time (JIT), maximizing residual capacity for others, while deciding the composition of requests in a batch to maximize efficiency and goodput with provable guarantees. Our evaluation across diverse realistic workloads, including chat, deep research, and agentic pipelines, shows that JITServe improves service goodput by 1.4x-6.3x, alternatively achieving 28.5%-83.2% resource savings, compared to state-of-the-art designs.

To schedule LLM inference, the shortest job first (SJF) principle is favorable by prioritizing requests with short output lengths to avoid head-of-line (HOL) blocking. Existing methods usually predict a single output length for each request to facilitate scheduling. We argue that such a point estimate does not match the stochastic decoding process of LLM inference, where output length is uncertain by nature and determined by when the end-of-sequence (EOS) token is sampled. Hence, the output length of each request should be fitted with a distribution rather than a single value. With an in-depth analysis of empirical data and the stochastic decoding process, we observe that output length follows a heavy-tailed distribution and can be fitted with the log-t distribution. On this basis, we propose a simple metric called Tail Inflated Expectation (TIE) to replace the output length in SJF scheduling, which adjusts the expectation of a log-t distribution with its tail probabilities to account for the risk that a request generates long outputs. To evaluate our TIE scheduler, we compare it with three strong baselines, and the results show that TIE reduces the per-token latency by 2.31times for online inference and improves throughput by 1.42times for offline data generation.

Telephone fraud is pervasive and costly, but its inner workings are rarely observed at scale. We analyze a complete corpus of 10,211 inbound scam and spam calls -- 913 hours of audio and 330,956 transcribed turns from 5,780 distinct numbers -- collected over 54 days by an AI voice-agent honeypot that answered callers and kept them talking, and introduced in a companion data descriptor. We separate outright scams, which solicit sensitive information, from the larger stream of predatory but legal lead generation ("spam") that feeds them. Scam operations keep office hours (6.6x more calls per weekday than weekend day); thousands of disposable numbers run a small catalog of recycled scripts (thirty opening clusters, half the traffic in the top five); and callers solicit identity anchors -- a home address and a date of birth -- far more often than payment credentials, pressing through persistence and manufactured authority rather than overt threats. Our central experiment asks: does it matter who picks up? Every seeded lead carried one of ten fictitious identities drawn uniformly at random, so the identity a fraud operation reaches is fixed before the caller exists. Across 1,823 randomized calls, scammers spent about 15% more conversational turns per decade of the target's apparent age (rate ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.08-1.23; randomization p = 0.005) -- yet what they asked for did not change (26.3% of calls reached a request for sensitive information; odds ratio 0.99 per decade, 95% CI 0.90-1.08). A second experiment casts early detection as a benchmark: from a scammer's opening lines alone, on a caller-disjoint split, escalation is predictable at 0.72 ROC-AUC from the first line and 0.87 by the eighth, and a plain bag-of-words classifier matches a fine-tuned on-device language model. Telephone fraud emerges as a templated industry that varies how hard it works a target, but not what it wants.

Natural-language service requests can require a language-model decision before execution starts, consuming part of the request's latency budget. We integrate Jev's decision-oriented application programming interface (API) into edge service orchestration to reduce this overhead while retaining service completion. The integration extracts four to eight bounded intent fields and applies a shared validator, admission policy, and scheduler, accounting for decision waiting throughout the request timeline. We compare Jev, two self-hosted decision models, and three hosted large language models (LLMs) on 8,280 verified requests and on a live admission path with modeled execution and a real optical character recognition service. Across 33 test conditions, Jev reduces median decision latency by 22.7-64.5% relative to the fastest LLM. This latency barely moves with input size, contract width, or catalog size. On four-field contracts, Jev's API fees per correct decision are 59.7-80.9% lower at a cost of a few exact-match points, while wide contracts mark the limit of the substitution. Receiving the service catalog with each request, Jev names unseen services as accurately as known ones. On the live admission path, Jev keeps 0.91-0.95 of requests exact and on time at loads where the LLMs fall below 0.1. Since caching repeated descriptions gives the interpreters nearly the same latency, Jev's gain lies in fresh decisions. These results support decision-model substitution for latency-bound admission on bounded contracts.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

AI chatbots are rapidly shaping how people encounter the news, yet no prior study has systematically measured how accurately these systems, with their proprietary search integrations and retrieval-synthesis pipelines, handle emerging facts across languages and regions. We present a 14-day (February 9-22, 2026) evaluation of six AI chatbots (Gemini 3 Flash and Pro, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, GPT-5 and GPT-4o mini) on 2,100 factual questions derived from same-day BBC News reporting across six regional services (US & Canada, Arabic, Afrique, Hindi, Russian, Turkish). The best systems achieve over 90% multiple-choice accuracy on questions about events reported hours earlier. The same systems, however, lose 11-13% under free-response evaluation, and 16-17% across the cohort. We further characterize three failure patterns. First, every model achieves its lowest accuracy on Hindi (79% vs. 89-91% elsewhere) and citations indicate an Anglophone retrieval bias (e.g., models answering Hindi queries cite English Wikipedia more than any Hindi outlet). Second, retrieval, not reasoning, failures drive over 70% of all errors. When models retrieve a correct source, they often extract the correct answer; the problem is to land on the right source in the first place. Third, models achieving 88-96% accuracy on well-formed questions drop to 19-70% when questions contain subtle false premises, with the most vulnerable model accepting fabricated facts 64% of the time. We also identify a detection-accuracy paradox: the best false-premise detector ranks second in adversarial accuracy (abstention rate), while a weaker detector ranks first, showing that premise detection and answer recovery are partially independent capabilities. Overall, these suggest that high accuracy can mask systematic regional inequity, near-total dependence on retrieval infrastructure, and vulnerability to imperfect queries real users pose.

System one models enable direct, low-latency decision-making. Yet recent practice of predicting an answer from serialized text does not, by itself, respect the structure of a decision problem. We argue that current designs underemphasize four important structural requirements. (i) null-aware: Models should distinguish answer absence from uncertainty among candidates; (ii) permutation-invariant: Reordering alternatives should not change the decision; (iii) option-scalable: Growing candidate sets should not require redefining the output space; (iv) cacheable: Request-independent computation over recurring alternatives should be reusable across requests. We introduce Jeva, a decision-native architecture that addresses these requirements jointly. A shared encoder independently represents the request and each option, while a compact decision stack refines only the request state against immutable option memory. Symmetric aggregation yields permutation-equivariant probabilities; shared scoring accommodates variable-size candidate sets. A separate coverage estimate distinguishes answer absence from candidate competition, enabling explicit null outcomes. Request-independent option representations and layer projections support reuse across newly assembled sets. These mechanisms unify Choice, Noul, and Score outputs. Across evaluations, Jeva combines strong typed-decision performance with near-perfect null detection and no decision flips under any tested permutations. It scales to thousands of candidates and substantially reduces latency through cross-request reuse without changing decisions.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems rely on retrieved documents being concatenated into a model's input context, making both document ordering and context size critical yet controversial design choices. Prior work reports position-based effects such as lost in the middle and related long-context phenomena. However, empirical findings remain inconsistent and hard to reproduce across models, datasets, and evaluation protocols. In this paper, we present a systematic reproducibility study that revisits these claims and examines how they evolve with contemporary LLMs under a controlled evaluation framework. We first show that topic sampling is a major source of variance: small topic sets can mask or exaggerate ordering effects. Based on repeated subset sampling across multiple topic budgets, we provide a practical calibration procedure that identifies topic counts yielding stable trends at feasible cost. Using these fixed topic sets, we then reproduce and extend results on position sensitivity, re-evaluating lost in the middle and positional biases in modern LLMs. Then, we also study a more realistic RAG scenario in which relevance is mediated by a retriever rather than oracle access to ground-truth documents. In this setting, we re-examine a recent industry study and identify discrepancies to evaluation choices such as limited topic coverage and reliance on LLM-based judges. Finally, we conduct an analysis of how retrieval order and context size affect downstream LLM performance under imperfect retrieval. Our results demonstrate that both factors interact strongly with retrieval quality and model choice, and that conclusions drawn from idealised setups do not always transfer to real-world RAG pipelines. We release all code and configurations to support reproducibility and future work on robust RAG evaluation.

Position bias in multiple-choice LLM evaluation is widely cited as a confound in capability comparisons, but published measurements rely on single answer-order shuffles whose results confound the bias signal with content-level noise and sampling stochasticity. I introduce inspect_permute, an open-source extension to the inspect_ai evaluation framework that runs exhaustive answer-order permutations per question and reports the chi-squared / Cramer V signature of position bias with bootstrap confidence intervals. I apply the tool across four vendors (gpt-4o-mini, claude-haiku-4-5, gemini-2.5-flash, grok-3) on five MMLU subjects, 24,000 API calls under temperature-0 generation, with falsifier predictions pre-registered via a public SHA-256 hash before half the data was observed. Position bias turns out to be statistically detectable only within a roughly 60-95% base-accuracy Goldilocks zone. Below it, processing-load dominance swamps subject-specific signal; above it, ceiling effects compress the variance below the chi-squared test resolution. Detectable cells separate into two mechanism types: monotone A-to-D decrease (processing_load, in low-tier models) and non-monotone D-drop (content_ambiguity, in a narrow capability band). Standard MMLU places every frontier-tier model above the detection band, so absence of signal there should be read as not measurable, not unbiased. Together with the ceiling-effect characterisation in arXiv:2606.26185, this work brackets the detectable region of position-bias measurement and makes the field central question askable in a verifiable form. Package, data, preregistration under MIT.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

AI-search evaluation commonly treats a prompt as a stable query that can be counted, classified, and replayed in isolation. A conversation makes that unit of analysis questionable: each user turn can add a constraint, revise an assumption, request evidence, or refer to alternatives established earlier. We replace latent "intent" with an observable construct, conversation-conditioned request state, and measure how that state is distributed across user turns. The analysis reuses frozen rules and the governed cohort of a preceding conversation study: 670 English commercial multi-turn conversations in a discovery-replication design and 7,463 public PRISM conversations from 1,389 participants. In the commercial corpus, the final prompt contains a median 35.6% of the session's unique user-side content vocabulary; in PRISM, the median is 36.4%. The final prompt contains at most half of that vocabulary in 68.4% and 74.3% of conversations, respectively. More importantly, transparent rules detect at least one request-state dimension in history but not in the final prompt in 50.3% of commercial conversations and 44.8% of PRISM conversations. Among dimension-bearing conversations, the final prompt reproduces the full observed dimension set in only 26.1% and 26.2%. At the same time, the final prompt adds a previously unseen dimension in 17.9% and 19.3%, showing that the endpoint is neither a summary nor merely a reference: it is often another state update. Length-matched nulls show that low lexical coverage is largely a consequence of turn length, so vocabulary results are interpreted as information availability, not semantic drift. The categorical results support session-level measurement for AI search. They do not estimate the causal effect of history on model answers.

Instruction-tuning data are judged by quality metrics, and tuned models are judged by benchmarks, but both judgments pass through an output interface: the surface format in which an answer is written. Using gradient signatures across 12 tasks, four semantically equivalent interfaces, three model families, and controlled corruptions, we show that this interface confounds both measurements. Spectral statistics such as effective rank are provably invariant to interface rotation and empirically blind to semantic corruption, while the direction of the update carries the quality signal. The interface-varying residual is not noise: it identifies each unit's own target task perfectly across all three families. Capability itself is stored relative to the training interface: a skill that raises accuracy by more than 40 points under the training format can be nearly invisible under every other, and correcting a single generation budget flips the measured effect of fine-tuning on GSM8K from a gain into a large loss. Pre-registered interventions delimit where this geometry stops short of control. Data quality and model capability are interface-conditioned quantities, and current practice often reports the interface instead of the content.

Production-grade LLM systems require robust adherence to dozens or even hundreds of instructions simultaneously. However, the instruction-following capabilities of LLMs at high instruction densities have not yet been characterized, as existing benchmarks only evaluate models on tasks with a single or few instructions. We introduce IFScale, a simple benchmark of 500 keyword-inclusion instructions for a business report writing task to measure how instruction-following performance degrades as instruction density increases. We evaluate 20 state-of-the-art models across seven major providers and find that even the best frontier models only achieve 68% accuracy at the max density of 500 instructions. Our analysis reveals model size and reasoning capability to correlate with 3 distinct performance degradation patterns, bias towards earlier instructions, and distinct categories of instruction-following errors. Our insights can help inform design of instruction-dense prompts in real-world applications and highlight important performance-latency tradeoffs. We open-source the benchmark and all results for further analysis at https://distylai.github.io/IFScale.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based search agents have shown remarkable capabilities in solving complex tasks by dynamically decomposing problems and addressing them through interleaved reasoning and retrieval. However, this interleaved paradigm introduces substantial efficiency bottlenecks. First, we observe that both highly accurate and overly approximate retrieval methods degrade system efficiency: exact search incurs significant retrieval overhead, while coarse retrieval requires additional reasoning steps during generation. Second, we identify inefficiencies in system design, including improper scheduling and frequent retrieval stalls, which lead to cascading latency -- where even minor delays in retrieval amplify end-to-end inference time. To address these challenges, we introduce SearchAgent-X, a high-efficiency inference framework for LLM-based search agents. SearchAgent-X leverages high-recall approximate retrieval and incorporates two key techniques: priority-aware scheduling and non-stall retrieval. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SearchAgent-X consistently outperforms state-of-the-art systems such as vLLM and HNSW-based retrieval across diverse tasks, achieving up to 3.4times higher throughput and 5times lower latency, without compromising generation quality. SearchAgent-X is available at https://github.com/tiannuo-yang/SearchAgent-X.

Modern applications increasingly rely on inference serving systems to provide low-latency insights with a diverse set of machine learning models. Existing systems often utilize resource elasticity to scale with demand. However, many applications cannot rely on hardware scaling when deployed at the edge or other resource-constrained environments. In this work, we propose a model selection and scheduling algorithm that implements accuracy scaling to increase efficiency for these more constrained deployments. We show that existing schedulers that make decisions using profiled model accuracy are biased toward the label distribution present in the test dataset. To address this problem, we propose using ML models -- which we call SneakPeek models -- to dynamically adjust estimates of model accuracy, based on the underlying data. Furthermore, we greedily incorporate inference batching into scheduling decisions to improve throughput and avoid the overhead of swapping models in and out of GPU memory. Our approach employs a new notion of request priority, which navigates the trade-off between attaining high accuracy and satisfying deadlines. Using data and models from three real-world applications, we show that our proposed approaches result in higher-utility schedules and higher accuracy inferences in these hardware-constrained environments.

A service system may use the same categories to assign standard allocations and to check whether each service is fulfilled. Finer categories can match individual needs more closely, but they divide the observations available for monitoring. We study this conflict for a fixed menu from which participants select by declaring a category, with fulfilment assessed from each category's aggregate outcomes during a fixed period. We relate allocation loss to variation in preferred allocations within categories and identify conditions under which aggregate observations preserve the verification performance of individual records. For nested refinements under stated utility and observation assumptions, an allocation-loss tolerance and a per-category detection target define a feasibility band. Categories must be fine enough to provide suitable allocations but sufficiently populated to support verification. A source-dependent lower bound on declaration entropy and a minimum contributor requirement give necessary information and population constraints. For an explicit finite population with quadratic utility and binary service outcomes, we prove the exact feasible range across all categorical designs and exhibit designs attaining the information lower bound at specified tolerances. The results provide conditions for choosing categories jointly for allocation and verification.

A retrieval model should not only interpolate the training data but also extrapolate well to the queries that are different from the training data. While neural retrieval models have demonstrated impressive performance on ad-hoc search benchmarks, we still know little about how they perform in terms of interpolation and extrapolation. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of separately evaluating the two capabilities of neural retrieval models. Firstly, we examine existing ad-hoc search benchmarks from the two perspectives. We investigate the distribution of training and test data and find a considerable overlap in query entities, query intent, and relevance labels. This finding implies that the evaluation on these test sets is biased toward interpolation and cannot accurately reflect the extrapolation capacity. Secondly, we propose a novel evaluation protocol to separately evaluate the interpolation and extrapolation performance on existing benchmark datasets. It resamples the training and test data based on query similarity and utilizes the resampled dataset for training and evaluation. Finally, we leverage the proposed evaluation protocol to comprehensively revisit a number of widely-adopted neural retrieval models. Results show models perform differently when moving from interpolation to extrapolation. For example, representation-based retrieval models perform almost as well as interaction-based retrieval models in terms of interpolation but not extrapolation. Therefore, it is necessary to separately evaluate both interpolation and extrapolation performance and the proposed resampling method serves as a simple yet effective evaluation tool for future IR studies.

Large Language Models are routinely compressed via post-training quantization to reduce inference costs and memory footprint for cloud and edge deployment, yet the impact of this compression on model quality remains poorly understood. Existing studies typically compare only two conditions (full-precision vs. a single quantized variant), rely on aggregate bias metrics, and evaluate a single model family, making it impossible to distinguish gradual degradation from threshold-dependent safety failures. We conduct a controlled empirical study of three instruction-tuned models (Qwen2.5-7B, Mistral-7B, Phi-3.5-mini) at five precision levels (BF16 through 3-bit) on 12,148 BBQ bias benchmark items across 5 random seeds, totaling 911,100 inference records. Our results reveal that 3-bit quantization causes 6-21% of previously unbiased items to develop new stereotypical behaviors, following a clear dose-response pattern confirmed via logistic regression, while models' willingness to select "unknown" answers declines by 17.4%. Crucially, these item-level changes are invisible to standard quality metrics: perplexity increases by less than 0.5% at 8-bit and under 3% at 4-bit across all three models, yet 2.5-5.6% of items already develop new biases at 4-bit. These findings demonstrate that aggregate evaluation metrics systematically miss fairness-critical degradation, underscoring the need for quality-aware compression protocols that explicitly test for bias emergence before deployment.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) in edge-cloud environments requires an efficient routing strategy to balance cost and response quality. Traditional approaches prioritize either human-preference data or accuracy metrics from benchmark datasets as routing criteria, but these methods suffer from rigidity and subjectivity. Moreover, existing routing frameworks primarily focus on accuracy and cost, neglecting response quality from a human preference perspective. In this work, we propose the Confidence-Driven LLM Router, a novel framework that leverages uncertainty estimation to optimize routing decisions. To comprehensively assess routing performance, we evaluate both system cost efficiency and response quality. In particular, we introduce the novel use of LLM-as-a-Judge to simulate human rating preferences, providing the first systematic assessment of response quality across different routing strategies. Extensive experiments on MT-Bench, GSM8K, and MMLU demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art routing methods, achieving superior response quality while maintaining cost efficiency.

In Large Language Model (LLM) inference, the output length of an LLM request is typically regarded as not known a priori. Consequently, most LLM serving systems employ a simple First-come-first-serve (FCFS) scheduling strategy, leading to Head-Of-Line (HOL) blocking and reduced throughput and service quality. In this paper, we reexamine this assumption -- we show that, although predicting the exact generation length of each request is infeasible, it is possible to predict the relative ranks of output lengths in a batch of requests, using learning to rank. The ranking information offers valuable guidance for scheduling requests. Building on this insight, we develop a novel scheduler for LLM inference and serving that can approximate the shortest-job-first (SJF) schedule better than existing approaches. We integrate this scheduler with the state-of-the-art LLM serving system and show significant performance improvement in several important applications: 2.8x lower latency in chatbot serving and 6.5x higher throughput in synthetic data generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/hao-ai-lab/vllm-ltr.git

Weight pruning is widely advocated for deploying Large Language Models on resource-constrained IoT and edge devices, yet its impact on model fairness remains poorly understood. We conduct a controlled empirical study of three instruction-tuned models (Gemma-2-9b-it, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, Phi-3.5-mini-instruct) across three pruning methods (Random, Magnitude, Wanda) at four sparsity levels (10-70%) on 12,148 BBQ bias benchmark items with 5 random seeds, totaling 2,368,860 inference records. Our results reveal a Smart Pruning Paradox: activation-aware pruning (Wanda) preserves perplexity nearly perfectly (just 3.5% increase at 50% sparsity for Mistral-7B), yet produces the highest bias amplification, with Stereotype Reliance Score increasing 83.7% and 47-59% of previously unbiased items developing new stereotypical behaviors at 70% sparsity. Random pruning destroys language capability entirely (perplexity exceeding 10^4 and reaching 10^8) but produces only random-chance bias. We further show that unstructured pruning provides zero storage savings and zero inference latency reduction on real edge hardware, undermining the primary motivation for its use in IoT deployment. Of 180 dense-vs-pruned comparisons, 141 (78.3%) are significant (p < 0.05) with mean |h| = 0.305. Published quantization studies report up to 21% of responses flipping between biased and unbiased states; our pruning results show transition rates nearly three times higher (47-59%), suggesting pruning poses a categorically greater risk to alignment than quantization. These findings demonstrate that perplexity-based evaluation provides false assurance of behavioral equivalence, and that IoT deployment pipelines require bias-aware validation before deploying pruned models at the edge.

Industrial procurement requires language models to bridge informal buyer jargon, sparse marketplace attributes, and authoritative engineering standards under strict safety tolerances. We present IndustryLLM, an open-weight industrial language model trained from Qwen3.5-35B-A3B-Base (35B total parameters with ~3B activated per token, with the vision encoder frozen). Rather than relying on generic text scaling, we introduce a failure-driven adaptation recipe spanning continued pre-training (CPT) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). CPT leverages a curated ~100B-token corpus integrating 5B tokens of national standards (e.g., GB/T) and technical archives, 10B tokens of de-identified real-world industrial transaction and inquiry records, and 60B tokens of general replay. To overcome register mismatch and factual brittleness, we systematically reconstruct an estimated 20B-token domain subset via multi-register rewriting across 10 genres and 8 writing styles, confidence-routed minimal factual editing, and error-targeted QA synthesis (resolving colloquial typos like '42-luo-mu' -> 42CrMo, expanding ambiguous codes like '16674' -> GB/T 16674, and clarifying conflicting dimensional specs). For downstream deployment, we formalize an evidence-gated constraint-evaluation interface enforcing three-valued logic where unverified product evidence remains unknown rather than satisfied. Offline evaluations demonstrate consistent gains on procurement-query structuring (+2.97 percentage points in exact match, 95% CI [2.11, 3.86] in No-Think mode), while randomized online A/B experiments in production yield substantial improvements (+4.25% GMV, +8.3% satisfied inquiries) alongside a latency reduction from 6-7 s to 1.5 s. Model weights and configs are released at https://huggingface.co/alibaba-multimodal-industrial-ai/IndustryLLM.

System One models answer typed questions in a single forward pass and promise the same answer for the same input. For choice questions, this promise fails: the answer depends on the order of the options, increasingly so as they grow in number, and averaging over their cyclic shifts reduces this dependence without removing it. Scoring each option alone, which the order cannot affect, shows that the order changes the answer mostly when the model is unsure among its top few options, even though the listwise answer looks confident. We therefore propose Runoff, which considers, then chooses: it scores each option alone to keep a few candidates, then compares them in listings where each candidate takes every position. It needs no training and can run in two forward passes, and its answer does not depend on the option order by construction. On two open models and five datasets, it changes no answer under shuffling, against 9.3% for cyclic averaging, and with 20 options it is about as accurate and three to four times faster. Wrapped around eight System One models, it removes the order dependence of the five benchmarks, while cyclic averaging changes up to 15.4%.

Whether a language model looks demographically biased can depend on how the audit asks its question. A charitable-aid benchmark reports that the same models favor minority applicants when rating requests one at a time and penalize some when ranking side by side. We test whether that reversal generalizes to hiring, lending, and medical triage: 40,726 requests to five models, applications differing only in the applicant's name, and a primary test fixed before collection. It does not. None of 36 planned contrasts survives correction. The rating advantage keeps its sign at roughly half the published size, and a precision extension bounds any hiring ranking penalty below the published effect, though the lending and triage ranking floors sit above that margin, so the exclusion is conclusive for hiring ranking and for rating in all three domains only. Planted disparities tracking their injected sizes and a directional replication on the original aid materials bound these nulls. The audit is livelier than the demographics: models recognize transparent audits nearly always, tie every identical-content comparison whether the varying detail is race or a hobby, and reward first-listed candidates as much as any demographic effect we measure. Audit verdicts reflect audit construction more than demographic bias.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Each LLM serving request goes through two phases. The first is prefill which processes the entire input prompt to produce one output token and the second is decode which generates the rest of output tokens, one-at-a-time. Prefill iterations have high latency but saturate GPU compute due to parallel processing of the input prompt. In contrast, decode iterations have low latency but also low compute utilization because a decode iteration processes only a single token per request. This makes batching highly effective for decodes and consequently for overall throughput. However, batching multiple requests leads to an interleaving of prefill and decode iterations which makes it challenging to achieve both high throughput and low latency. We introduce an efficient LLM inference scheduler Sarathi-Serve inspired by the techniques we originally proposed for optimizing throughput in Sarathi. Sarathi-Serve leverages chunked-prefills from Sarathi to create stall-free schedules that can add new requests in a batch without pausing ongoing decodes. Stall-free scheduling unlocks the opportunity to improve throughput with large batch sizes while minimizing the effect of batching on latency. Our evaluation shows that Sarathi-Serve improves serving throughput within desired latency SLOs of Mistral-7B by up to 2.6x on a single A100 GPU and up to 6.9x for Falcon-180B on 8 A100 GPUs over Orca and vLLM.

An isolated final user message is often treated as the query in evaluations of AI systems. In a conversation, however, the actionable request may be distributed across preceding turns. We directly test whether that omitted within-conversation context changes answers. For each of 180 English multi-turn conversations sampled from a governed commercial corpus and the public PRISM dataset, we hold the final user message and requested answer model constant while generating three answers: one from the full role-labelled conversation, one from the final message alone, and one from the final message plus a prefix-only reconstruction capped at 160 words. A separately requested judge model evaluates answers under randomized labels. The prespecified primary endpoint is a material difference that could change what the user does, rather than a difference in style or detail. After inverse-probability weighting to the eligible cohorts, the full-conversation and isolated-final answers differ materially in 44.7% of cases (95% bootstrap CI 33.8% to 56.1%). Full-conversation answers score 0.49 points higher on a 0 to 4 request-satisfaction scale (0.32 to 0.67). Adding the compressed prefix reduces the material-difference rate to 30.8% (20.2% to 42.1%), a 13.9-point reduction (4.9% to 24.1%), and reduces the mean satisfaction gap to 0.01 points (-0.12 to 0.13). Yet compression is not equivalent to the complete dialogue context: almost one third of answers remain materially different. An order-swapped repeat on 48 cases yields 91.7% agreement and kappa = 0.83 for the primary decision. The study concerns preceding turns in the same conversation and does not test persistent memory across separate conversations.

We study the polynomial-time approximability of the optimal online stochastic bipartite matching algorithm, initiated by Papadimitriou et al. (EC'21). Here, nodes on one side of the graph are given upfront, while at each time t, an online node and its edge weights are drawn from a time-dependent distribution. The optimal algorithm is PSPACE-hard to approximate within some universal constant. We refer to this optimal algorithm, which requires time to think (compute), as a philosopher, and refer to polynomial-time online approximations of the above as philosopher inequalities. The best known philosopher inequality for online matching yields a 0.652-approximation. In contrast, the best possible prophet inequality, or approximation of the optimum offline solution, is 0.5. Our main results are a 0.678-approximate algorithm and a 0.685-approximation for a vertex-weighted special case. Notably, both bounds exceed the 0.666-approximation of the offline optimum obtained by Tang, Wu, and Wu (STOC'22) for the vertex-weighted problem. Building on our algorithms and the recent black-box reduction of Banihashem et al. (SODA'24), we provide polytime (pricing-based) truthful mechanisms which 0.678-approximate the social welfare of the optimal online allocation for bipartite matching markets. Our online allocation algorithm relies on the classic pivotal sampling algorithm (Srinivasan FOCS'01, Gandhi et al. J.ACM'06), along with careful discarding to obtain negative correlations between offline nodes. Consequently, the analysis boils down to examining the distribution of a weighted sum X of negatively correlated Bernoulli variables, specifically lower bounding its mass below a threshold, E[min(1,X)], of possible independent interest. Interestingly, our bound relies on an imaginary invocation of pivotal sampling.

With automated systems increasingly issuing search queries alongside humans, Information Retrieval (IR) faces a major shift. Yet IR remains human-centred, with systems, evaluation metrics, user models, and datasets designed around human queries and behaviours. Consequently, IR operates under assumptions that no longer hold in practice, with changes to workload volumes, predictability, and querying behaviours. This misalignment affects system performance and optimisation: caching may lose effectiveness, query pre-processing may add overhead without improving results, and standard metrics may mismeasure satisfaction. Without adaptation, retrieval models risk satisfying neither humans, nor the emerging user segment of agents. However, datasets capturing agent search behaviour are lacking, which is a critical gap given IR's historical reliance on data-driven evaluation and optimisation. We develop a methodology for collecting all the data produced and consumed by agentic retrieval-augmented systems when answering queries, and we release the Agentic Search Queryset (ASQ) dataset. ASQ contains reasoning-induced queries, retrieved documents, and thoughts for queries in HotpotQA, Researchy Questions, and MS MARCO, for 3 diverse agents and 2 retrieval pipelines. The accompanying toolkit enables ASQ to be extended to new agents, retrievers, and datasets.

We present RouteJudge, an online pairwise preference evaluation framework for LLM routing systems, with a public platform available at https://routejudge.cn. Different from model-level response evaluation, RouteJudge focuses on router-level decision quality. For each user query, multiple routing strategies independently recommend candidate models under the same model pool and budget constraints. The selected model responses are then presented to users through anonymous pairwise comparisons, and the resulting user preferences are attributed back to the routing strategies behind the compared responses. Each evaluation record stores the query, routing decisions, model responses, preference labels, cost, latency, and task metadata, enabling preference-aware, cost-aware, and task-conditioned analysis of LLM routers. To support the continuous expansion of routing methods in RouteJudge, we further release ORBIT (Optimal Routing and Budgeted Inference Toolbox), a modular and extensible toolbox that standardizes the end-to-end workflow of LLM routing. ORBIT provides unified interfaces for benchmark loading, query representation, router implementation, budget-aware evaluation, and method comparison, allowing researchers to develop and evaluate routing algorithms under consistent protocols. It also serves as the submission and integration layer for RouteJudge: researchers can implement routing methods within ORBIT, validate them on existing routing benchmarks, and submit compatible routers for online preference-based evaluation. The code of ORBIT is available at https://github.com/LAMDA-Model-Reuse/ORBIT.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Dense retrieval powers retrieval-augmented generation, semantic search, and question answering, yet the theoretical basis for choosing between shared and dual query-document projections remains unclear. We introduce a bias-variance theory for low-rank bilinear scoring. Shared projections induce positive-semidefinite operators, whereas dual projections realize arbitrary low-rank operators. We derive their exact approximation gap and prove a local Gaussian boundary: dual has lower risk exactly when squared directional signal exceeds the estimation cost of its additional degrees of freedom. This boundary motivates the Cross-fitted Asymmetry Risk Selector (CARS), which estimates reproducible directional signal from training pairs; its Gaussian counterpart admits exact selection-power and regret formulas. Guided by the theory, we run retrieval experiments across multiple datasets and embedding models. The mean Dual-minus-Shared NDCG@10 advantage more than doubles as query rotation increases from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. In the rank-sample-size grids, Shared wins 13 of 16 cells at n=32, whereas Dual wins all 32 cells at n=1024 and n=2048. Consistent with this shift, all 168 comparable operator-risk curves move toward Dual as training data grow. Compared to the two fixed-geometry baselines, CARS reduces held-out regret by 49-96% and achieves 90.1% mean geometry-selection accuracy.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Existing losses used in deep metric learning (DML) for image retrieval often lead to highly non-uniform intra-class and inter-class representation structures across test classes and data distributions. When combined with the common practice of using a fixed threshold to declare a match, this gives rise to significant performance variations in terms of false accept rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR) across test classes and data distributions. We define this issue in DML as threshold inconsistency. In real-world applications, such inconsistency often complicates the threshold selection process when deploying commercial image retrieval systems. To measure this inconsistency, we propose a novel variance-based metric called Operating-Point-Inconsistency-Score (OPIS) that quantifies the variance in the operating characteristics across classes. Using the OPIS metric, we find that achieving high accuracy levels in a DML model does not automatically guarantee threshold consistency. In fact, our investigation reveals a Pareto frontier in the high-accuracy regime, where existing methods to improve accuracy often lead to degradation in threshold consistency. To address this trade-off, we introduce the Threshold-Consistent Margin (TCM) loss, a simple yet effective regularization technique that promotes uniformity in representation structures across classes by selectively penalizing hard sample pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate TCM's effectiveness in enhancing threshold consistency while preserving accuracy, simplifying the threshold selection process in practical DML settings.

We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured weighted sums under exchangeability, extending beyond the classical framework of independent terms. We develop Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds provided with structure-dependent exchangeability. Along the way, we recover known results in weighted sum of exchangeable random variables and i.i.d. sums of random matrices to the optimal constants. Notably, we develop a sharper concentration bound for combinatorial sum of matrix arrays than the results previously derived from Chatterjee's method of exchangeable pairs. For applications, the richer structures provide us with novel analytical tools for estimating the average effect of multi-factor response models and studying fixed-design sketching methods in federated averaging. We apply our results to these problems, and find that our theoretical predictions are corroborated by numerical evidence.

Agent evaluations are increasingly used to compare LLMs and inform deployment decisions, yet ranks can reflect not only the model but also the effects of the evaluation conditions such as the scaffolds or tasks. This makes reliability claim-dependent: an evaluation that reliably ranks deployed systems may not reliably rank underlying models. We ask which conclusions current agent evaluations reliably support and what additional evaluation would improve them. We develop a Bayesian variance-decomposition framework for sparse, imbalanced agent leaderboards and apply it to 22 benchmarks from the Holistic Agent Leaderboard and Harbor Index. The framework separates signal, performance differences relevant to the intended claim, from noise, irrelevant variation that can still change rankings. We find: (1) Reliability depends on the measurement goal. Fixed model-scaffold systems are ranked reliably (0.935-0.994), while underlying-model reliability is substantially lower (0.148-0.841). (2) Scaffold choice can change conclusions. Inter-scaffold reliability measures whether scaffolds preserve model rankings, showing that scaffold effects vary substantially across evaluations. (3) More tasks cannot resolve all uncertainty. Even infinitely many similarly constructed tasks improve model-ranking reliability of a benchmark by at most 0.097 when uncertainty is dominated by limited scaffold coverage. (4) Pooling diverse benchmarks can improve cross-task rankings at lower cost. For rankings across diverse agentic tasks, pooling benchmarks raises projected reliability from 0.44 to 0.75 at the same task budget and can reduce projected cost by up to 83\%. Evaluation design should follow the intended claim: identify what a score or ranking should mean, diagnose what limits its reliability, and spend evaluation budget on the sources of uncertainty that matter.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Ad-load balancing is a critical challenge in online advertising systems, particularly in the context of social media platforms, where the goal is to maximize user engagement and revenue while maintaining a satisfactory user experience. This requires the optimization of conflicting objectives, such as user satisfaction and ads revenue. Traditional approaches to ad-load balancing rely on static allocation policies, which fail to adapt to changing user preferences and contextual factors. In this paper, we present an approach that leverages off-policy learning and evaluation from logged bandit feedback. We start by presenting a motivating analysis of the ad-load balancing problem, highlighting the conflicting objectives between user satisfaction and ads revenue. We emphasize the nuances that arise due to user heterogeneity and the dependence on the user's position within a session. Based on this analysis, we define the problem as determining the optimal ad-load for a particular feed fetch. To tackle this problem, we propose an off-policy learning framework that leverages unbiased estimators such as Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS) and Doubly Robust (DR) to learn and estimate the policy values using offline collected stochastic data. We present insights from online A/B experiments deployed at scale across over 80 million users generating over 200 million sessions, where we find statistically significant improvements in both user satisfaction metrics and ads revenue for the platform.

Motivated by the operational problems in click and collect systems, such as curbside pickup programs, we study a joint admission control and capacity allocation problem. We consider a system where arriving customers have preferred service delivery times and gauge the service quality based on the service provider's ability to complete the service as close as possible to the preferred time. Customers can be of different priority classes, and their priority may increase as they wait longer in the queue. The service provider can reject customers upon their arrival if the system is overloaded or outsource the service (alternatively work overtime) when the capacity is not enough. The service provider's goal is to find the minimum-cost admission and capacity allocation policy to dynamically decide when to serve and whom to serve. We model this problem as a Markov Decision Process. Our structural results partially characterize a set of suboptimal solutions, and we develop solution methods using these results. We also develop a problem-specific approximation method that is based on state aggregation to overcome the computational challenges. We present extensive computational results and discuss the impact of problem parameters on the optimal policy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in both latency-sensitive online services and cost-sensitive offline workloads. Co-locating these workloads on shared serving instances can improve resource utilization, but directly applying this approach to Prefill/Decode (P/D) disaggregated systems introduces severe load imbalance, as fluctuating request mixes alter the intrinsic P/D ratio. Existing dynamic adjustment techniques cannot keep up with the bursty traffic patterns of online services. We propose a latency-constraint disaggregated architecture, which separates cluster resources into latency-strict and latency-relaxed pools based on task latency requirements. This design enables flexible placement of offline decode tasks, mitigating P/D imbalance while preserving online performance. To fully exploit this flexibility, we propose (1) a bottleneck-based scheduler guided by a Roofline-based performance model for performance bottleneck based scheduling, and (2) a fast preemption mechanism that strictly enforces Service Level Objectives (SLOs) for online requests. Experiments on real-world traces show that compared to existing offline system approaches, our method improves offline throughput by up to 3x, while maintaining online request SLOs.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

Serial LLM inference backends -- such as Ollama -- process requests one at a time under FCFS admission, causing Head-of-Line Blocking (HOLB) under mixed workloads at high utilisation: short factual queries can be delayed by minutes behind long generation jobs. While cloud-scale deployments mitigate HOLB via continuous batching (vLLM, Orca), these solutions require tens of GB of VRAM for concurrent KV-caches -- infeasible for memory-constrained edge and local deployments that rely on serial request dispatch. We present \clairvoyant, a drop-in sidecar proxy for any serial OpenAI-compatible backend (e.g., Ollama, llama.cpp). \clairvoyant predicts response length from 19 lightweight lexical features via an ONNX-exported XGBoost classifier, achieving 0.029\,ms per-request latency (four orders of magnitude below typical generation time). Because admission scheduling depends on relative ordering rather than exact prediction, the system optimises ranking fidelity, achieving 62--96\% in-distribution and 52--66\% cross-distribution accuracy across natural conversation datasets. We find that curated instruction datasets are degenerate training sources for length prediction: GPT-imposed brevity constraints reduce Long-class representation to under 0.02\% of examples, making natural conversation logs the only viable training source. End-to-end GPU benchmarks on an RTX~4090 show 70--76\% P50 latency reduction for short requests under maximum queue pressure (100 concurrent requests) and 17\% under steady-state Poisson arrivals (ρ=0.74). \clairvoyant is open-source and requires no modifications to the inference backend.

Prompt optimization improves language models without updating their weights by searching for a better system prompt, but its effectiveness varies widely across tasks. We study what makes a task amenable to prompt optimization. We show that the reward variance across different system prompts can be decomposed into two components: variance among responses, which captures generation stochasticity, and variance among system prompts, which captures differences in system prompt quality. Prompt optimization succeeds when variance among system prompts is sufficiently large, but fails when variance among responses dominates the variance of the system prompts. Surprisingly, we further show that scaling to more user prompts can hurt optimization by reducing variance among system prompts, especially on heterogeneous datasets where different user prompts favor different system prompts. Motivated by this insight, we propose p1, a simple user prompt filtering method that selects a small subset of user prompts with high variance across candidate system prompts. This subset of user prompts allows one to distinguish a good system prompt from a bad one, making system optimization easier. Experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that p1 substantially improves prompt optimization over training on the full dataset and outperforms strong baselines such as GEPA. Notably, training on only two prompts from AIME 24 yields a system prompt that generalizes well to other reasoning benchmarks.

Reasoning models represented by the Deepseek-R1-Distill series have been widely adopted by the open-source community due to their strong performance in mathematics, science, programming, and other domains. However, our study reveals that their benchmark evaluation results are subject to significant fluctuations caused by various factors. Subtle differences in evaluation conditions can lead to substantial variations in results. Similar phenomena are observed in other open-source inference models fine-tuned based on the Deepseek-R1-Distill series, as well as in the QwQ-32B model, making their claimed performance improvements difficult to reproduce reliably. Therefore, we advocate for the establishment of a more rigorous paradigm for model performance evaluation and present our empirical assessments of the Deepseek-R1-Distill series models.

Evaluations of LLM systems routinely average over small prompt sets and report models as a ranked table. We ask how much confidence such a table deserves, using LLM-based prompt-structure inference as the case study: eight open model variants across five families and 8B to 675B parameters, caching disabled, 293 raw intermediate representations persisted. The measured phenomenon is unstable to begin with. Identical calls do not reliably recover identical structure, with mean node-set Jaccard from 0.39 to 0.96 and 72% of prompt-model cells never node-set-perfect. Auditing the evaluation weakens its conclusions further, and this is our main contribution. Under a joint cluster bootstrap over prompts, only the bottom of the ranking is firm: the two least reproducible models hold rank in 99% and 86% of replicates, the middle four in 27% to 48%, and the top two in 68% each, so the table identifies the worst model reliably but does not reliably identify the best. Two equally defensible rules for merging repeated campaigns change four of eight rows and move the study-wide headline by 7 percentage points. Checking the inferred structure against ground-truth annotations shows reproducibility cannot be read as accuracy. And four of the eight endpoints were withdrawn within ten weeks of measurement, so the study as specified can no longer be run. Small-sample LLM evaluations can therefore look far more definitive than their evidence supports. We recommend reporting rank stability, per-cell provenance, executed sensitivity comparisons, raw per-run outputs, and a measurement date alongside any ranking.

Decision APIs that return a probability for each option are routinely used as if those probabilities were properties of the options themselves. That reading is valid only if the model satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): adding an option that is neither the right answer nor its strongest rival should leave the odds between those two unchanged. We test this in a pre-registered study of jev-1.13.0, a hosted decision model, using 299,463 calls on intent classification (BANKING77, CLINC150) and topic classification (AG News). Every added option moves the log-odds between the gold label and the strongest wrong label: the root-mean-square systematic shift is 0.20-0.52 nats, 1.2 to 3 times the run-to-run variation, even when the added option takes at most 0.1% of the probability mass. The shifts are directional. An option similar to the wrong answer draws probability from it (+0.10 nats toward the gold label). A paraphrase of the wrong answer produces an intermediate pattern: the gold label's probability is almost conserved, but the paraphrase receives only about a third of the wrong answer's share rather than the half that strict substitution implies. The distortion grows steadily with the logarithm of the number of options, reaching about 1 nat at 255 options, and off-domain padding pushes the odds against the gold label. In contrast, questions packed into one call do not interact (bias < 0.001). Scoring each option with an independent yes/no question removes the option-set dependence but picks the right answer 8.7 points less often. Jev sits between two local baselines, an option-independent scorer and a prompt readout. Its probabilities are best read as relative to the option list they were computed over.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

A central bottleneck in multi-hop Question Answering (QA) is that the granularity at which a question is expressed often differs from the granularity at which corpus evidence is retrievable. Existing methods address this mismatch by imposing fixed graph structures over the corpus, by iteratively reformulating the query, or by executing a generated program over it, but these strategies do not explicitly decide when a query unit is already supported by evidence and when it should be refined. We formulate this bottleneck as retrievable granularity discovery and introduce Hi-Q, an evidence-conditioned framework for hierarchical query refinement. At each query node, a resolution operator tests whether retrieved evidence supports the current query unit; resolved nodes terminate, while unresolved nodes are expanded by a dependency-preserving binary operator and checked by a semantic coverage verifier. Hi-Q therefore grows a query tree whose topology is determined by corpus support signals rather than by a fixed decomposition template or a pre-built graph. We evaluate Hi-Q on three multi-hop QA benchmarks, primarily under full-corpus retrieval, where dependent evidence must be located among open-domain distractors rather than within a small annotated pool. In this setting Hi-Q reaches 52.3 EM and 64.0 F1 averaged over the three benchmarks, ahead of the iterative retrieval baseline IRCoT by 15.1 EM / 18.2 F1 on that same average, and ahead of the graph-based RAG baseline PropRAG by 11.5 EM / 12.0 F1 on MuSiQue-full, without corpus-wide graph construction. In the restricted supporting/distractor setting used by prior work, Hi-Q likewise attains the best accuracy, with 57.9 EM and 69.3 F1 on average, ahead of PropRAG by 5.6 EM / 3.9 F1 and IRCoT by 13.7 EM / 15.8 F1. The project page is available at https://hi-q-project.github.io/.

Test-time scaling can improve model performance by aggregating stochastic reasoning trajectories. However, achieving sample-efficient test-time self-consistency under a limited budget remains an open challenge. We introduce PETS (Principled and Efficient Test-TimeSelf-Consistency), which initiates a principled study of trajectory allocation through an optimization framework. Central to our approach is the self-consistency rate, a new measure defined as agreement with the infinite-budget majority vote. This formulation makes sample-efficient test-time allocation theoretically grounded and amenable to rigorous analysis. We study both offline and online settings. In the offline regime, where all questions are known in advance, we connect trajectory allocation to crowdsourcing, a classic and well-developed area, by modeling reasoning traces as workers. This perspective allows us to leverage rich existing theory, yielding theoretical guarantees and an efficient majority-voting-based allocation algorithm. In the online streaming regime, where questions arrive sequentially and allocations must be made on the fly, we propose a novel method inspired by the offline framework. Our approach adapts budgets to question difficulty while preserving strong theoretical guarantees and computational efficiency. Experiments show that PETS consistently outperforms uniform allocation. On GPQA, PETS achieves perfect self-consistency in both settings while reducing the sampling budget by up to 75% (offline) and 55% (online) relative to uniform allocation. Code is available at https://github.com/ZDCSlab/PETS.

How do you validate a cheap, deterministic proxy for an oracle that is expensive, rate-limited, and non-stationary? We present a protocol built on adversarial falsification gates (negative control, dose response, bounded amplification, duplication penalty, length neutrality) that define and select the proxy, fitted on a training split and confirmed held-out; around them it bounds what the proxy can never resolve, and re-measures external causal evidence on the current oracle rather than assuming it. We demonstrate it end to end on Generative Engine Optimization, where the proxy is a deterministic content score, and one step fails on that domain exactly as the protocol is built to detect: re-measuring the only published causal anchors (2023 effect sizes) on ten modern engine families shows their levers move citation on none, so the anchors are an expired external check; recalibrating to the near-zero modern vector strips the score of its lever-responsive components. What survives is the gate-enforced response surface. The gates buy a measured property: on a 500-source benchmark of adversarial edits, amplifying the score's calibrated levers gains an attacker at most 6 points, and decreases with dose; single-lever amplification is provably bounded, while the cap and cross-lever sub-additivity are empirical findings consistent with it. On detection, web-spam baselines dominate and out-of-distribution attacks evade the score, so the deployable filter layers it over them. A query-conditioned skyline bounds the score's citation signal (within-query Spearman 0.11), repositioning query-agnostic scores as quality filters rather than citation predictors. A query-leakage bug in our first ranking evaluation and a failed confidence flag are disclosed and corrected; every number reproduces offline from released artifacts at zero marginal API cost.

Prior work has shown that fine-tuning models on a narrow domain with misaligned data can lead to broad misalignment - a phenomenon termed "emergent misalignment" (Betley et al. 2025). While all tested models were susceptible to emergent misalignment, some models showed more resistance than others. Specifically the Qwen-2.5 family proved to be relatively resistant, while GPT-4o exhibited the strongest misalignment. In this paper we evaluate if current-generation open-weights models exhibit similar resistance to the Qwen-2.5 family and measure misalignment robustness over a range of model architectures and scales. We replicate the effect across nine modern open-weights models (Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 families, 1B-32B parameters). Models fine-tuned on insecure code generation show a 0.68% misalignment rate (compared to 0.07% for base models), matching the lower end of prior open-model results but dramatically lower than GPT-4o's 20%. We identify a critical format-dependent vulnerability: requiring JSON output doubles misalignment rates compared to natural language prompts (0.96% vs 0.42%). This suggests that structural constraints may bypass safety training by reducing the model's 'degrees of freedom' to refuse. These findings confirm emergent misalignment as a reproducible phenomenon in modern open-weights models, with rates substantially lower than observed in proprietary systems.

Indirect User Requests (IURs), such as "It's cold in here" instead of "Could you please increase the temperature?" are common in human-human task-oriented dialogue and require world knowledge and pragmatic reasoning from the listener. While large language models (LLMs) can handle these requests effectively, smaller models deployed on virtual assistants often struggle due to resource constraints. Moreover, existing task-oriented dialogue benchmarks lack sufficient examples of complex discourse phenomena such as indirectness. To address this, we propose a set of linguistic criteria along with an LLM-based pipeline for generating realistic IURs to test natural language understanding (NLU) and dialogue state tracking (DST) models before deployment in a new domain. We also release IndirectRequests, a dataset of IURs based on the Schema Guided Dialog (SGD) corpus, as a comparative testbed for evaluating the performance of smaller models in handling indirect requests.

Language model users often issue queries that lack specification, where the context under which a query was issued -- such as the user's identity, the query's intent, and the criteria for a response to be useful -- is not explicit. For instance, a good response to a subjective query like "What book should I read next?" would depend on the user's preferences, and a good response to an open-ended query like "How do antibiotics work against bacteria?" would depend on the user's expertise. This makes evaluation of responses to such queries an ill-posed task, as evaluators may make arbitrary judgments about the response quality. To remedy this, we present contextualized evaluations, a protocol that synthetically constructs context surrounding an underspecified query and provides it during evaluation. We find that the presence of context can 1) alter conclusions drawn from evaluation, even flipping win rates between model pairs, 2) nudge evaluators to make fewer judgments based on surface-level criteria, like style, and 3) provide new insights about model behavior across diverse contexts. Specifically, our procedure uncovers an implicit bias towards WEIRD contexts in models' "default" responses and we find that models are not equally sensitive to following different contexts, even when they are provided in prompts.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

Sampling proper negatives from a large document pool is vital to effectively train a dense retrieval model. However, existing negative sampling strategies suffer from the uninformative or false negative problem. In this work, we empirically show that according to the measured relevance scores, the negatives ranked around the positives are generally more informative and less likely to be false negatives. Intuitively, these negatives are not too hard (may be false negatives) or too easy (uninformative). They are the ambiguous negatives and need more attention during training. Thus, we propose a simple ambiguous negatives sampling method, SimANS, which incorporates a new sampling probability distribution to sample more ambiguous negatives. Extensive experiments on four public and one industry datasets show the effectiveness of our approach. We made the code and models publicly available in https://github.com/microsoft/SimXNS.

Mitigating bias in machine learning systems requires refining our understanding of bias propagation pathways: from societal structures to large-scale data to trained models to impact on society. In this work, we focus on one aspect of the problem, namely bias amplification: the tendency of models to amplify the biases present in the data they are trained on. A metric for measuring bias amplification was introduced in the seminal work by Zhao et al. (2017); however, as we demonstrate, this metric suffers from a number of shortcomings including conflating different types of bias amplification and failing to account for varying base rates of protected attributes. We introduce and analyze a new, decoupled metric for measuring bias amplification, BiasAmp_{rightarrow} (Directional Bias Amplification). We thoroughly analyze and discuss both the technical assumptions and normative implications of this metric. We provide suggestions about its measurement by cautioning against predicting sensitive attributes, encouraging the use of confidence intervals due to fluctuations in the fairness of models across runs, and discussing the limitations of what this metric captures. Throughout this paper, we work to provide an interrogative look at the technical measurement of bias amplification, guided by our normative ideas of what we want it to encompass. Code is located at https://github.com/princetonvisualai/directional-bias-amp

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments evaluation over the space of meaning-preserving prompt perturbations. We introduce a formal definition of reliable evaluation that accounts for prompt sensitivity, and suggest ReliableEval - a method for estimating the number of prompt resamplings needed to obtain meaningful results. Using our framework, we stochastically evaluate five frontier LLMs and find that even top-performing models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.7-Sonnet exhibit substantial prompt sensitivity. Our approach is model-, task-, and metric-agnostic, offering a recipe for meaningful and robust LLM evaluation.

Recent failures such as Google Gemini generating people of color in Nazi-era uniforms illustrate how AI outputs can be factually plausible yet socially harmful. AI models are increasingly evaluated for "fairness," yet existing benchmarks often conflate two fundamentally different dimensions: factual correctness and normative fairness. A model may generate responses that are factually accurate but socially unfair, or conversely, appear fair while distorting factual reality. We argue that identifying the boundary between fact and fair is essential for meaningful fairness evaluation. We introduce Fact-or-Fair, a benchmark with (i) objective queries aligned with descriptive, fact-based judgments, and (ii) subjective queries aligned with normative, fairness-based judgments. Our queries are constructed from 19 statistics and are grounded in cognitive psychology, drawing on representativeness bias, attribution bias, and ingroup-outgroup bias to explain why models often misalign fact and fairness. Experiments across ten frontier models reveal different levels of fact-fair trade-offs. By reframing fairness evaluation, we provide both a new theoretical lens and a practical benchmark to advance the responsible model assessments. Our test suite is publicly available at https://github.com/uclanlp/Fact-or-Fair.

Retrieval systems are central to many NLP pipelines, but often rely on surface-level cues such as keyword overlap and lexical semantic similarity. To evaluate retrieval beyond these shallow signals, recent benchmarks introduce reasoning-heavy queries; however, they primarily shift the burden to query-side processing techniques -- like prompting or multi-hop retrieval -- that can help resolve complexity. In contrast, we present ImpliRet, a benchmark that shifts the reasoning challenge to document-side processing: The queries are simple, but relevance depends on facts stated implicitly in documents through temporal (e.g., resolving "two days ago"), arithmetic, and world knowledge relationships. We evaluate a range of sparse and dense retrievers, all of which struggle in this setting: the best nDCG@10 is only 15.07%. We also test whether long-context models can overcome this limitation. But even with a short context of only ten documents, including the positive document, GPT-4.1 scores only 35.06%, showing that document-side reasoning remains a challenge. Our codes are available at github.com/ZeinabTaghavi/IMPLIRET.Contribution.

A paraphrase-quality audit of MathCheck (ICLR 2025) detected 4 semantically incorrect paraphrases in 129 groups (3.1%); removing them drops GPT-4o from rank 2 to rank 4 and elevates Claude Haiku and DeepSeek V3 above it; these ranking changes are invisible to any single-model evaluation. Cross-model unanimity found these errors automatically (>= 3/4 models for MathCheck; >= 6/9 for our primary evaluation) for under $10; in our own dataset the same protocol found that 47% of auto-generated connective-variation paraphrases were semantically incorrect. That flaw compounds a deeper measurement gap: Claude Haiku 4.5 achieves 86% accuracy yet SCR=50%, meaning half its theorems are answered differently under semantically equivalent restatements, while aggregate accuracy across 9 models spans only 86-96% yet Semantic Consistency Rates (SCR) span 50-82% -- a 32-point gap invisible to standard benchmarks. Formally, for any target ranking over 9 frontier models there exists a weighting over paraphrase families that realizes it (No-Free-Benchmark corollary), because no model Pareto-dominates all families -- so benchmark designers who select families are implicitly choosing which model wins. FormInv supplies the audit protocol (replicated on external benchmarks at 100% recall), SCR and per-theorem Cochran's Q as primary invariance measures evaluated on 9 models across 366-811 items (on Lean4-verified theorems), and FormInvSelector for regime-aware model selection.

LLM serving systems process heterogeneous query workloads where different categories exhibit different characteristics. Code queries cluster densely in embedding space while conversational queries distribute sparsely. Content staleness varies from minutes (stock data) to months (code patterns). Query repetition patterns range from power-law (code) to uniform (conversation), producing long tail cache hit rate distributions: high-repetition categories achieve 40-60% hit rates while low-repetition or volatile categories achieve 5-15% hit rates. Vector databases must exclude the long tail because remote search costs (30ms) require 15--20% hit rates to break even, leaving 20-30% of production traffic uncached. Uniform cache policies compound this problem: fixed thresholds cause false positives in dense spaces and miss valid paraphrases in sparse spaces; fixed TTLs waste memory or serve stale data. This paper presents category-aware semantic caching where similarity thresholds, TTLs, and quotas vary by query category. We present a hybrid architecture separating in-memory HNSW search from external document storage, reducing miss cost from 30ms to 2ms. This reduction makes low-hit-rate categories economically viable (break-even at 3-5% versus 15-20%), enabling cache coverage across the entire workload distribution. Adaptive load-based policies extend this framework to respond to downstream model load, dynamically adjusting thresholds and TTLs to reduce traffic to overloaded models by 9-17% in theoretical projections.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

A unique aspect of ColBERT is its use of [MASK] tokens in queries to score documents (query augmentation). Prior work shows [MASK] tokens weighting non-[MASK] query terms, emphasizing certain tokens over others , rather than introducing whole new terms as initially proposed. We begin by demonstrating that a term weighting behavior previously reported for [MASK] tokens in ColBERTv1 holds for ColBERTv2. We then examine the effect of changing the number of [MASK] tokens from zero to up to four times past the query input length used in training, both for first stage retrieval, and for scoring candidates, observing an initial decrease in performance with few [MASK]s, a large increase when enough [MASK]s are added to pad queries to an average length of 32, then a plateau in performance afterwards. Additionally, we compare baseline performance to performance when the query length is extended to 128 tokens, and find that differences are small (e.g., within 1% on various metrics) and generally statistically insignificant, indicating performance does not collapse if ColBERT is presented with more [MASK] tokens than expected.

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini increasingly act as general-purpose copilots, yet they often respond with unnecessary length on simple requests, adding redundant explanations, hedging, or boilerplate that increases cognitive load and inflates token-based inference cost. Prior work suggests that preference-based post-training and LLM-judged evaluations can induce systematic length bias, where longer answers are rewarded even at comparable quality. We introduce YapBench, a lightweight benchmark for quantifying user-visible over-generation on brevity-ideal prompts. Each item consists of a single-turn prompt, a curated minimal-sufficient baseline answer, and a category label. Our primary metric, YapScore, measures excess response length beyond the baseline in characters, enabling comparisons across models without relying on any specific tokenizer. We summarize model performance via the YapIndex, a uniformly weighted average of category-level median YapScores. YapBench contains over three hundred English prompts spanning three common brevity-ideal settings: (A) minimal or ambiguous inputs where the ideal behavior is a short clarification, (B) closed-form factual questions with short stable answers, and (C) one-line coding tasks where a single command or snippet suffices. Evaluating 76 assistant LLMs, we observe an order-of-magnitude spread in median excess length and distinct category-specific failure modes, including vacuum-filling on ambiguous inputs and explanation or formatting overhead on one-line technical requests. We release the benchmark and maintain a live leaderboard for tracking verbosity behavior over time.

In this paper, we study the generation quality of interpolation-based retrieval-augmented language models (LMs). These methods, best exemplified by the KNN-LM, interpolate the LM's predicted distribution of the next word with a distribution formed from the most relevant retrievals for a given prefix. While the KNN-LM and related methods yield impressive decreases in perplexity, we discover that they do not exhibit corresponding improvements in open-ended generation quality, as measured by both automatic evaluation metrics (e.g., MAUVE) and human evaluations. Digging deeper, we find that interpolating with a retrieval distribution actually increases perplexity compared to a baseline Transformer LM for the majority of tokens in the WikiText-103 test set, even though the overall perplexity is lower due to a smaller number of tokens for which perplexity dramatically decreases after interpolation. However, when decoding a long sequence at inference time, significant improvements on this smaller subset of tokens are washed out by slightly worse predictions on most tokens. Furthermore, we discover that the entropy of the retrieval distribution increases faster than that of the base LM as the generated sequence becomes longer, which indicates that retrieval is less reliable when using model-generated text as queries (i.e., is subject to exposure bias). We hope that our analysis spurs future work on improved decoding algorithms and interpolation strategies for retrieval-augmented language models.

The increasing reliance on AI-driven solutions, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) like the GPT series, for information retrieval highlights the critical need for their factuality and fairness, especially amidst the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Our study evaluates the factual accuracy, stability, and biases in widely adopted GPT models, including GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, contributing to reliability and integrity of AI-mediated information dissemination. We introduce 'Global-Liar,' a dataset uniquely balanced in terms of geographic and temporal representation, facilitating a more nuanced evaluation of LLM biases. Our analysis reveals that newer iterations of GPT models do not always equate to improved performance. Notably, the GPT-4 version from March demonstrates higher factual accuracy than its subsequent June release. Furthermore, a concerning bias is observed, privileging statements from the Global North over the Global South, thus potentially exacerbating existing informational inequities. Regions such as Africa and the Middle East are at a disadvantage, with much lower factual accuracy. The performance fluctuations over time suggest that model updates may not consistently benefit all regions equally. Our study also offers insights into the impact of various LLM configuration settings, such as binary decision forcing, model re-runs and temperature, on model's factuality. Models constrained to binary (true/false) choices exhibit reduced factuality compared to those allowing an 'unclear' option. Single inference at a low temperature setting matches the reliability of majority voting across various configurations. The insights gained highlight the need for culturally diverse and geographically inclusive model training and evaluation. This approach is key to achieving global equity in technology, distributing AI benefits fairly worldwide.

The increasing adoption of econometric and machine-learning approaches by empirical researchers has led to a widespread use of one data collection method: web scraping. Web scraping refers to the use of automated computer programs to access websites and download their content. The key argument of this paper is that na\"ive web scraping procedures can lead to sampling bias in the collected data. This article describes three sources of sampling bias in web-scraped data. More specifically, sampling bias emerges from web content being volatile (i.e., being subject to change), personalized (i.e., presented in response to request characteristics), and unindexed (i.e., abundance of a population register). In a series of examples, I illustrate the prevalence and magnitude of sampling bias. To support researchers and reviewers, this paper provides recommendations on anticipating, detecting, and overcoming sampling bias in web-scraped data.

Although counterfactual reasoning is a fundamental aspect of intelligence, the lack of large-scale counterfactual open-domain question-answering (QA) benchmarks makes it difficult to evaluate and improve models on this ability. To address this void, we introduce the first such dataset, named IfQA, where each question is based on a counterfactual presupposition via an "if" clause. For example, if Los Angeles was on the east coast of the U.S., what would be the time difference between Los Angeles and Paris? Such questions require models to go beyond retrieving direct factual knowledge from the Web: they must identify the right information to retrieve and reason about an imagined situation that may even go against the facts built into their parameters. The IfQA dataset contains over 3,800 questions that were annotated annotated by crowdworkers on relevant Wikipedia passages. Empirical analysis reveals that the IfQA dataset is highly challenging for existing open-domain QA methods, including supervised retrieve-then-read pipeline methods (EM score 36.2), as well as recent few-shot approaches such as chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-3 (EM score 27.4). The unique challenges posed by the IfQA benchmark will push open-domain QA research on both retrieval and counterfactual reasoning fronts.

Prevailing multi-vector visual document retrievers store each page as about a thousand patch vectors, often in vector databases run by a third party. Since no one can read a page from its vectors, this index is easily treated as less sensitive than the page. However, because the index keeps one vector per patch in raster order, and each vector is computed by a vision-language model pre-trained to read documents, we hypothesize that whoever runs or breaches the store can reproduce a page from its index alone. We frame inversion as conditional document image generation and infer from the vectors what the attack needs: the encoder, the page shape and, for shuffled vectors, their order. On the ViDoRe v3 benchmark, pages inverted from raw indices recover 47% of the words and 45% of the sensitive tokens. Used as queries against the stored indices, they rank their source page first 98.4% of the time. We test two cheap protections, token pooling and shuffling, which both cut word recall to about 8%. A model that restores the order of a shuffled index raises the share of source pages ranked first from 3.8% to 93.5%, while inverting a pooled index remains open. To test generalisation, we apply the same attack unchanged to another multi-vector retriever: its inverted pages still rank their source page first 70.2% of the time, though its word recall stays below a nearest-neighbour baseline. Multi-vector visual document retrievers are therefore vulnerable to inversion through their stored index, which should be protected like the documents it encodes.

Data quality profiling -- computing missing-value rates, duplicate fractions, outlier densities, and functional-dependency violations -- is foundational for data-centric AI pipelines, yet exhaustive scans over millions of rows are prohibitively slow for near-real-time monitoring. Progressive sampling is the standard alternative; the open question is which strategy best preserves profile fidelity at scale. We benchmark nine sampling strategies -- blind (random uniform, geometric, Yamane, cluster) and proxy-guided (Metropolis-Hastings, DAG, stratified by column type or quality score, importance-weighted) -- on three real-world datasets (NYC 311, NYPD arrests, UCI Adult; up to 500K rows), an IoT sensor stream (2.3M rows), two ultra-large real datasets including Ultra-Marathon Running (up to 7.4M rows), and synthetic data scaled to 5x10^6 rows. Contrary to the assumption sharpens estimates, blind representative samplers dominate uniformly. At a 5% budget, random uniform achieves 0.49% mean relative error on NYC 311; DAG-guided MCMC yields 19.5% (approx. 40x worse), and across all real datasets DAG is 11-49x worse (Wilcoxon W=0, p=0.002, n=9 pairs). Cluster sampling matches random uniform (MRE 0.110 vs. 0.111); proxy-guided methods share DAG's failure mode (MRE 0.20-0.35). At scale, random uniform is near-linear (O(N^{0.964})) while DAG is super-linear (O(N^{1.272})), running 28--47x slower on ultra-large data with 6x worse accuracy. The root cause is an IQR proxy mismatch: proxy-guided samplers over-pursue numeric outliers, while quality defects concentrate in categorical columns invisible to the proxy. The actionable finding: representativeness, not domain knowledge, determines sampler quality -- schema-free random uniform or cluster sampling suffices for production-grade quality profiling at scale.

APort Vault is a benchmark for payment authorization in tool-using AI agents. It replays 4,371 attacks written by humans against a live payment agent during a public capture-the-flag event, across 14 models from 8 labs, five policy configurations and two replay tracks, with and without a deterministic pre-action check implementing the Open Agent Passport (OAP) specification. 225,964 evaluations completed. We report five distinct events per evaluation, because collapsing them is how an agent benchmark produces a number that does not survive review. Requests are common and their rate differs far more across configurations than across models, though each attack exists at exactly one configuration so policy and attack cohort vary together: 10.9% of model-alone evaluations at Level 1, 3.0% at Level 2, 0.1% at Level 3, 79.4% at Level 4. On the 1,293 Level 4 prompts, each evaluated on every model, request rates run from 71.2% to 84.3%, and 809 prompts (62.6%) elicited a request from all fourteen models, each ending in a successful payment to the level's allowlisted recipient. The authorization boundary is where the conditions diverge. At Levels 2 to 4, transfers to recipients the passport did not permit number 140 of 76,842 with the model alone and 0 of 69,297 behind the layer, and 105 against 0 on 68,970 matched model, prompt and track triples. The zero spans 790 source sessions, giving a per-session upper bound of 0.38%. It was not obtained by refusing payments: 25,370 payments executed behind the layer, while the policy denied 187 of the 25,640 transfer calls it evaluated, 148 of them for a forbidden recipient. We release the 225,964 evaluations, the level passports, the scoring code and the analysis script at huggingface.co/datasets/aporthq/vault-benchmark-v1 .

The evaluation of coding agents generally strives to be as realistic as possible. In our study, we collect 4,782 agent sessions of real software engineers in JetBrains IDEs, which we call Production Sessions. Since our subject is interactive agents, we study the sessions with at least three user messages (33% of the sample). These long sessions differ from issue-derived benchmark tasks in two ways: (i) user requests span a far wider mix of task types - questions about the project's code, planning, review, refactoring, execution - and (ii) users switch between types throughout a session. Long-session samples from three public interaction corpora exhibit markedly different Task Flows (the distributions of session lengths, task types, and type-to-type transitions), so no single interaction distribution is universally realistic: benchmarks should name a target use case and calibrate to measurements from it. We present SWE-TaskFlow, an approach for transforming any issue-derived benchmark: it preserves the verified tasks and tests while steering the interaction toward a target Task Flow through prompt splitting and verifiable repository QA, with a TaskFlow Alignment Score (TFAS) for selecting among generated trajectories. In a pilot on 700 SWE-Bench Pro tasks, solving the task sequentially in several steps approximately doubles agent cost without a stable change in resolve rate: the interaction protocol itself is an important dimension of evaluation.

Heterogeneous LLM serving stacks split scheduling into two layers that optimize in isolation: model routers pick a model from quality and cost signals while ignoring instance load, and serving load balancers optimize queues while ignoring quality. We present RouteBalance, a serving-aware scheduling layer that fuses both into a single online assignment over concrete model instances, jointly trading off quality, latency, and cost. A batched in-process predictor stack and dead-reckoned instance state keep the joint decision cheap on the request hot path (approx32 ms at 12 req/s). On a 13-instance, 28-GPU heterogeneous cluster serving four model sizes, a single deployed RouteBalance stack traces the upper region of the three-way quality-cost-throughput frontier. Sweeping one weight vector reaches both the highest routing-decision quality (DeepEval 0.419, +0.013 over the strongest baseline, 95% CI [{+}0.005,{+}0.022]; the ordering holds when a second judge re-scores the actually served text) and, at its cost-priority corner, per-request cost that ties the cheapest baseline. With router engineering equalized against concurrent-scoring baseline variants we build, its balanced preset serves at 2.8 s and 30 req/s, leading 2.6 to 4.1times ahead of enhanced BEST-Route at high load. (Deploying those routers as published, one serial scoring call per request, makes them collapse 23times under load, a deployment-architecture effect we isolate separately, not the routing result.) A four-arm isolation shows the benefit follows from pricing latency at model-selection time; the learned predictors contribute calibration and SLO headroom rather than the headline frontier. Code: https://github.com/AKafakA/route-balance

Legal AI systems are increasingly used to answer legal questions, yet existing benchmarks assume queries arrive fully specified. In practice, users omit facts that materially determine the legal outcome. We introduce InsufficiencyBench, the first legal benchmark targeting query-side insufficiency: whether a model recognizes when a query lacks legally material information, identifies what is missing, and refrains from premature conclusions. We formalize a taxonomy of eight canonical missing-element categories across three structural failure modes---switch, gating, and fatal prerequisite--- and construct 202 benchmark items (58 base queries, 144 deficient variants) spanning six legal domains and 24 US jurisdictions and annotated by practising attorneys. Evaluating ten frontier models, we find that no model exceeds F2 = 0.46 on missing-element identification and that the median recall is 0.44. Models either hedge indiscriminately or answer silently under fabricated presumptions. No model both identifies and qualifies responses to deficient queries while directly addressing complete ones.

SlopBench asks which models produce the stiff, repetitive prose readers call AI slop, a question detectors leave open once they have classified a text as machine-written. We evaluated eighteen models on 112 hand-written tasks in email, social posts, essays, and workplace chat, sampling each model on each task up to ten times, for 19,928 outputs in all. SlopBench scores four surface behaviors a reader can check by hand: length against the word band each task specifies, opener repetition across a model's own samples of one task, and paragraph rhythm and fixed lexical constructions against pre-ChatGPT human corpora. Under one fixed weighting, Kimi K2.6 scores lowest at 21.1 and Mistral Large highest at 40.6. Across 500 random reweightings Kimi has the lowest score in 58 percent of draws and Mistral the highest in 97 percent. No draw preserves the full order of the eighteen, and a scenario bootstrap leaves exactly one of those ranks unambiguous. We ran three further checks on that middle order: a crowd arena, an AI detector, and lexical diversity. None of them confirmed the order. We therefore report the four behaviors separately and treat the composite as one weighting among many, and we release the prompts, outputs, reference statistics, and scoring code.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Conversational systems can collapse a visible sequence of web queries, result inspections, and source comparisons into a single synthesized answer. Existing retrieval metrics evaluate ranking, effort, or factual support, but they do not quantify the minimum conventional search work represented by a completed answer. We define answer-reconstruction search density (\ARSD): the minimum number of distinct query actions required, under a fixed and dated reconstruction policy, to support a target share of atomic retrievable answer units. A parallel page-density measure separates query compression from source compression.

Natural language interfaces often require supervised data to translate user requests into programs, database queries, or other structured intent representations. During data collection, it can be difficult to anticipate and formalize the full range of user needs -- for example, in a system designed to handle simple requests (like find my meetings tomorrow or move my meeting with my manager to noon), users may also express more elaborate requests (like swap all my calls on Monday and Tuesday). We introduce an approach for equipping a simple language-to-code model to handle complex utterances via a process of hierarchical natural language decomposition. Our approach uses a pre-trained language model to decompose a complex utterance into a sequence of smaller natural language steps, then interprets each step using the language-to-code model. To test our approach, we collect and release DeCU -- a new NL-to-program benchmark to evaluate Decomposition of Complex Utterances. Experiments show that the proposed approach enables the interpretation of complex utterances with almost no complex training data, while outperforming standard few-shot prompting approaches.

Speculative Decoding (SD) has emerged as a critical technique for accelerating Large Language Model (LLM) inference. Unlike deterministic system optimizations, SD performance is inherently data-dependent, meaning that diverse and representative workloads are essential for accurately measuring its effectiveness. Existing benchmarks suffer from limited task diversity, inadequate support for throughput-oriented evaluation, and a reliance on high-level implementations that fail to reflect production environments. To address this, we introduce SPEED-Bench, a comprehensive suite designed to standardize SD evaluation across diverse semantic domains and realistic serving regimes. SPEED-Bench offers a carefully curated Qualitative data split, selected by prioritizing semantic diversity across the data samples. Additionally, it includes a Throughput data split, allowing speedup evaluation across a range of concurrencies, from latency-sensitive low-batch settings to throughput-oriented high-load scenarios. By integrating with production engines like vLLM and TensorRT-LLM, SPEED-Bench allows practitioners to analyze system behaviors often masked by other benchmarks. We highlight this by quantifying how synthetic inputs overestimate real-world throughput, identifying batch-size dependent optimal draft lengths and biases in low-diversity data, and analyzing the caveats of vocabulary pruning in state-of-the-art drafters. We release SPEED-Bench to establish a unified evaluation standard for practical comparisons of SD algorithms.

Increasing demand for Large Language Models (LLMs) services imposes substantial deployment and computation costs on providers. LLM routing offers a cost-efficient solution by directing queries to the optimal LLM based on model and query features. However, existing works primarily focus on offline scenarios and struggle to adapt to online settings with high query volume and constrained token budgets. In this work, we introduce the first training-free algorithm for online routing scenarios. Our algorithm leverages approximate nearest neighbor search to efficiently estimate query features and performs a one-time optimization over a small set of initial queries to learn a routing strategy that guides future routing. We provide theoretical guarantees demonstrating that our algorithm achieves a competitive ratio of 1 - o(1) under natural assumptions, which is further validated by extensive experiments across 3 benchmark datasets and 8 baselines, showing an average improvement of 3.55times in overall performance, 1.85times in cost efficiency, and nearly 4.25times in throughput. Our code is available at https://github.com/fzwark/PORT.

Frontier language models can resolve repository-level software issues, but each attempt is expensive, and existing routers select a model from the issue text alone. We present SuperScout, which routes after scouting the repository: a 7B searcher, SuperScout-7B, first explores the repository and produces a structured handoff whose reproduction claims are sandbox-verified, with false claims stripped before delivery. The searcher's hidden states, together with the task text, then feed a resume-based router that dispatches the task to one of four frontier fixers. Adding a new fixer requires no retraining. On the full Python slice of SWE-bench Pro (266 tasks) under the benchmark's official capped budget tier, SuperScout matches the best single model's solve rate (159 of 266 for SuperScout, 158 for the best model) at about a fifth of the total cost per solve, and the reported configuration sits above the random traffic-splitting baseline. A no-router ablation, always the cheapest fixer with the handoff, ties the routed system on this benchmark, so the handoff rather than the routing decision carries the result. A paired calibration study points to the mechanism: the handoff appears to redistribute rather than add solving ability, lifting the three cheaper fixers while slightly hurting the strongest, though at N=99 the per-fixer effects are directional only; the searcher's hidden states improve cost routing on the calibration labels while the handoff's own text does not. The searcher's compute adds less than half a cent of GPU time per task.

"Citizen queries" are questions asked by an individual about government policies, guidance, and services that are relevant to their circumstances, encompassing a range of topics including benefits, taxes, immigration, employment, public health, and more. This represents a compelling use case for Large Language Models (LLMs) that respond to citizen queries with information that is adapted to a user's context and communicated according to their needs. However, in this use case, any misinformation could have severe, negative, likely invisible ramifications for an individual placing their trust in a model's response. To this effect, we introduce CitizenQuery-UK, a benchmark dataset of 22 thousand pairs of citizen queries and responses that have been synthetically generated from the swathes of public information on gov.uk about government in the UK. We present the curation methodology behind CitizenQuery-UK and an overview of its contents. We also introduce a methodology for the benchmarking of LLMs with the dataset, using an adaptation of FActScore to benchmark 11 models for factuality, abstention frequency, and verbosity. We document these results, and interpret them in the context of the public sector, finding that: (i) there are distinct performance profiles across model families, but each is competitive; (ii) high variance undermines utility; (iii) abstention is low and verbosity is high, with implications on reliability; and (iv) more trustworthy AI requires acknowledged "fallibility" in the way it interacts with users. The contribution of our research lies in assessing the trustworthiness of LLMs in citizen query tasks; as we see a world of increasing AI integration into day-to-day life, our benchmark, built entirely on open data, lays the foundations for better evidenced decision-making regarding AI and the public sector.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and other large foundation models have achieved noteworthy success, but their size exacerbates existing resource consumption and latency challenges. In particular, the large-scale deployment of these models is hindered by the significant resource requirements during inference. In this paper, we study two approaches for mitigating these challenges: employing a cache to store previous queries and learning a model multiplexer to choose from an ensemble of models for query processing. Theoretically, we provide an optimal algorithm for jointly optimizing both approaches to reduce the inference cost in both offline and online tabular settings. By combining a caching algorithm, namely Greedy Dual Size with Frequency (GDSF) or Least Expected Cost (LEC), with a model multiplexer, we achieve optimal rates in both offline and online settings. Empirically, simulations show that the combination of our caching and model multiplexing algorithms greatly improves over the baselines, with up to 50times improvement over the baseline when the ratio between the maximum cost and minimum cost is 100. Experiments on real datasets show a 4.3times improvement in FLOPs over the baseline when the ratio for FLOPs is 10, and a 1.8times improvement in latency when the ratio for average latency is 1.85.

In arena-style evaluation of large language models (LLMs), two LLMs respond to a user query, and the user chooses the winning response or deems the "battle" a draw, resulting in an adjustment to the ratings of both models. The prevailing approach for modeling these rating dynamics is to view battles as two-player game matches, as in chess, and apply the Elo rating system and its derivatives. In this paper, we critically examine this paradigm. Specifically, we question whether a draw genuinely means that the two models are equal and hence whether their ratings should be equalized. Instead, we conjecture that draws are more indicative of query difficulty: if the query is too easy, then both models are more likely to succeed equally. On three real-world arena datasets, we show that ignoring rating updates for draws yields a 1-3% relative increase in battle outcome prediction accuracy (which includes draws) for all four rating systems studied. Further analyses suggest that draws occur more for queries rated as very easy and those as highly objective, with risk ratios of 1.37 and 1.35, respectively. We recommend future rating systems to reconsider existing draw semantics and to account for query properties in rating updates.

Apache Spark is a widely adopted framework for large-scale data processing. However, in industrial analytics environments, Spark's built-in schedulers, such as FIFO and fair scheduling, struggle to maintain both user-level fairness and low mean response time, particularly in long-running shared applications. Existing solutions typically focus on job-level fairness which unintentionally favors users who submit more jobs. Although Spark offers a built-in fair scheduler, it lacks adaptability to dynamic user workloads and may degrade overall job performance. We present the User Weighted Fair Queuing (UWFQ) scheduler, designed to minimize job response times while ensuring equitable resource distribution across users and their respective jobs. UWFQ simulates a virtual fair queuing system and schedules jobs based on their estimated finish times under a bounded fairness model. To further address task skew and reduce priority inversions, which are common in Spark workloads, we introduce runtime partitioning, a method that dynamically refines task granularity based on expected runtime. We implement UWFQ within the Spark framework and evaluate its performance using multi-user synthetic workloads and Google cluster traces. We show that UWFQ reduces the average response time of small jobs by up to 74% compared to existing built-in Spark schedulers and to state-of-the-art fair scheduling algorithms.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

The growing importance of understanding and addressing algorithmic bias in artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a surge in research on AI fairness, which often assumes that the underlying data is independent and identically distributed (IID). However, real-world data frequently exists in non-IID graph structures that capture connections among individual units. To effectively mitigate bias in AI systems, it is essential to bridge the gap between traditional fairness literature, designed for IID data, and the prevalence of non-IID graph data. This survey reviews recent advancements in fairness amidst non-IID graph data, including the newly introduced fair graph generation and the commonly studied fair graph classification. In addition, available datasets and evaluation metrics for future research are identified, the limitations of existing work are highlighted, and promising future directions are proposed.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task for many applications, as its accuracy has a direct impact on user experience and platform revenue. In recent years, CTR prediction has been widely studied in both academia and industry, resulting in a wide variety of CTR prediction models. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of standardized benchmarks and uniform evaluation protocols for CTR prediction research. This leads to non-reproducible or even inconsistent experimental results among existing studies, which largely limits the practical value and potential impact of their research. In this work, we aim to perform open benchmarking for CTR prediction and present a rigorous comparison of different models in a reproducible manner. To this end, we ran over 7,000 experiments for more than 12,000 GPU hours in total to re-evaluate 24 existing models on multiple datasets and settings. Surprisingly, our experiments show that with sufficient hyper-parameter search and model tuning, many deep models have smaller differences than expected. The results also reveal that making real progress on the modeling of CTR prediction is indeed a very challenging research task. We believe that our benchmarking work could not only allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of new models conveniently but also make them fairly compare with the state of the arts. We have publicly released the benchmarking code, evaluation protocols, and hyper-parameter settings of our work to promote reproducible research in this field.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

Large language models (LLMs) have excelled in various applications, yet serving them at scale is challenging due to their substantial resource demands and high latency. Our real-world studies reveal that over 70% of user requests to LLMs have semantically similar counterparts, suggesting the potential for knowledge transfer among requests. However, naively caching and reusing past responses leads to a big quality drop. In this paper, we introduce IC-Cache, a caching system that enables live LLM capability augmentation to improve serving efficiency: by leveraging historical request-response pairs from larger models as in-context examples, IC-Cache empowers small LLMs to imitate and even exceed the compositional abilities (e.g., reasoning) of their larger counterparts, enabling selective offloading of requests to reduce cost and latency. Achieving this live augmentation at scale introduces intricate trade-offs between response quality, latency, and system throughput. For a new request, IC-Cache efficiently selects similar, high-utility examples to prepend them to the new request's input. At scale, it adaptively routes requests across LLMs of varying capabilities, accounting for response quality and serving loads. IC-Cache employs a cost-aware cache replay mechanism that refines example quality offline to maximize online cache utility and efficiency. Evaluations on millions of realistic requests demonstrate that IC-Cache improves LLM serving throughput by 1.4-5.9x and reduces latency by 28-71% without hurting response quality.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

We introduce QC-Stark, a benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) on 11 quantum computing (QC) tasks, spanning circuit construction, debugging, compilation, error correction, and simulation. Across 2,750 evaluations (10 models times 11 tasks x 5 difficulty levels x 5 seeds), we find that overall rankings mask substantial per-task variation. The Spearman correlation between overall and per-task rankings is statistically insignificant for 4 out of the 11 tasks included in this benchmark. A 2-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) model validates measurement quality, and prompt sensitivity analysis confirms ranking robustness across prompt conditions. All tasks are auto-verifiable via execution, thus not requiring any manual evaluation. We make the code and data publicly available on Huggingface.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

We study an online caching problem in which requests can be served by a local cache to avoid retrieval costs from a remote server. The cache can update its state after a batch of requests and store an arbitrarily small fraction of each file. We study no-regret algorithms based on Online Mirror Descent (OMD) strategies. We show that bounds for the regret crucially depend on the diversity of the request process, provided by the diversity ratio R/h, where R is the size of the batch, and h is the maximum multiplicity of a request in a given batch. We characterize the optimality of OMD caching policies w.r.t. regret under different diversity regimes. We also prove that, when the cache must store the entire file, rather than a fraction, OMD strategies can be coupled with a randomized rounding scheme that preserves regret guarantees, even when update costs cannot be neglected. We provide a formal characterization of the rounding problem through optimal transport theory, and moreover we propose a computationally efficient randomized rounding scheme.

Relevance and fairness are two major objectives of recommender systems (RSs). Recent work proposes measures of RS fairness that are either independent from relevance (fairness-only) or conditioned on relevance (joint measures). While fairness-only measures have been studied extensively, we look into whether joint measures can be trusted. We collect all joint evaluation measures of RS relevance and fairness, and ask: How much do they agree with each other? To what extent do they agree with relevance/fairness measures? How sensitive are they to changes in rank position, or to increasingly fair and relevant recommendations? We empirically study for the first time the behaviour of these measures across 4 real-world datasets and 4 recommenders. We find that most of these measures: i) correlate weakly with one another and even contradict each other at times; ii) are less sensitive to rank position changes than relevance- and fairness-only measures, meaning that they are less granular than traditional RS measures; and iii) tend to compress scores at the low end of their range, meaning that they are not very expressive. We counter the above limitations with a set of guidelines on the appropriate usage of such measures, i.e., they should be used with caution due to their tendency to contradict each other and of having a very small empirical range.

Large language model (LLM) queries are predominantly processed by frontier models in centralized cloud infrastructure. Rapidly growing demand strains this paradigm, and cloud providers struggle to scale infrastructure at pace. Two advances enable us to rethink this paradigm: small LMs (<=20B active parameters) now achieve competitive performance to frontier models on many tasks, and local accelerators (e.g., Apple M4 Max) run these models at interactive latencies. This raises the question: can local inference viably redistribute demand from centralized infrastructure? Answering this requires measuring whether local LMs can accurately answer real-world queries and whether they can do so efficiently enough to be practical on power-constrained devices (i.e., laptops). We propose intelligence per watt (IPW), task accuracy divided by unit of power, as a metric for assessing capability and efficiency of local inference across model-accelerator pairs. We conduct a large-scale empirical study across 20+ state-of-the-art local LMs, 8 accelerators, and a representative subset of LLM traffic: 1M real-world single-turn chat and reasoning queries. For each query, we measure accuracy, energy, latency, and power. Our analysis reveals 3 findings. First, local LMs can accurately answer 88.7% of single-turn chat and reasoning queries with accuracy varying by domain. Second, from 2023-2025, IPW improved 5.3x and local query coverage rose from 23.2% to 71.3%. Third, local accelerators achieve at least 1.4x lower IPW than cloud accelerators running identical models, revealing significant headroom for optimization. These findings demonstrate that local inference can meaningfully redistribute demand from centralized infrastructure, with IPW serving as the critical metric for tracking this transition. We release our IPW profiling harness for systematic intelligence-per-watt benchmarking.

LLM serving systems typically treat user prompts as monolithic inputs, optimizing inference through decoding tricks or inter-query batching. However, many real-world prompts contain latent semantic parallelism--decomposable structures where subtasks can be executed independently to reduce latency while preserving meaning. We introduce PARALLELPROMPT, the first benchmark for measuring intra-query parallelism in natural user prompts. Our dataset comprises over 37,000 real-world prompts from public LLM chat logs, each annotated with a structured schema capturing task templates, shared context, and iteration inputs. These schemas are extracted using LLM-assisted prompting with rule-based multilingual validation. To evaluate the benefits of decomposition, we provide an execution suite that benchmarks serial vs. parallel strategies, measuring latency, structural adherence, and semantic fidelity. Our results show that intra-query parallelism can be successfully parsed in over 75% of curated datasets, unlocking up to 5x speedups on tasks like translation, comprehension, and comparative analysis, with minimal quality degradation. By releasing this benchmark, curation pipeline, and evaluation suite, we provide the first standardized testbed for studying structure-aware execution in LLM serving pipelines.

When unsure about an answer, humans often respond with more words than necessary, hoping that part of the response will be correct. We observe a similar behavior in large language models (LLMs), which we term "Verbosity Compensation" (VC). VC is harmful because it confuses the user understanding, leading to low efficiency, and influences the LLM services by increasing the latency and cost of generating useless tokens. In this paper, we present the first work that defines and analyzes Verbosity Compensation, explores its causes, and proposes a simple mitigating approach. We define Verbosity Compensation as the behavior of generating responses that can be compressed without information loss when prompted to write concisely. Our experiments, conducted on five datasets of knowledge and reasoning-based QA tasks with 14 newly developed LLMs, reveal three conclusions. 1) We reveal a pervasive presence of verbosity compensation across all models and all datasets. Notably, GPT-4 exhibits a VC frequency of 50.40%. 2) We reveal the large performance gap between verbose and concise responses, with a notable difference of 27.61% on the Qasper dataset. We also demonstrate that this difference does not naturally diminish as LLM capability increases. Both 1) and 2) highlight the urgent need to mitigate the frequency of VC behavior and disentangle verbosity with veracity. We propose a simple yet effective cascade algorithm that replaces the verbose responses with the other model-generated responses. The results show that our approach effectively alleviates the VC of the Mistral model from 63.81% to 16.16% on the Qasper dataset. 3) We also find that verbose responses exhibit higher uncertainty across all five datasets, suggesting a strong connection between verbosity and model uncertainty. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/VerbosityLLM.

Language models often receive a question together with a claim about what another source answered. We audit whether such claims destabilize answers in multiple-choice question answering. For each item, we hold one wrong option fixed across misleading conditions and vary the cue template attached to it. We introduce neutral-conditioned misleading cue adoption rate (NC-MCAR), which measures switches to that option only on valid cued trials where the same model first selected the gold answer under a neutral prompt. This is a measure of answer instability, not proof that the model knew the answer or that all deference is irrational. We evaluate four instruction-following models on MMLU-Pro and IndicMMLU-Pro in English, Hindi, Bengali, Tamil, and Telugu. Across 220{,}000 outputs, the expert template yields 41.1\% aggregate NC-MCAR, compared with 12.5\% for the majority template. These two conditions use the same wrong option and final instruction. Filler accuracy remains well above expert-wrong accuracy, while correct-cue prompts have high valid-response accuracy. The audit documents answer instability relevant to grounding under the tested forced-choice prompts: a bare, unverified source claim can outweigh an answer that was previously consistent with the task evidence.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.