Daily Papers

Addressing critical global challenges, from food security and disaster risk to disease outbreaks and socio-economic vulnerability, demands high-fidelity geospatial modeling. However, building predictive planetary models remains bottlenecked by a fragmented data ecosystem, requiring manual data retrieval, multimodal data curation and fusion along with iterative model selection. We present the Planetary Prediction Engine (PPE), an autonomous AI system that executes this end-to-end workflow directly from natural-language queries. PPE synthesizes multimodal datasets on the fly, retrieving spatiotemporally relevant covariates across open-web and Earth observation platforms (Data Commons, Google Earth Engine) and fusing them with geospatial foundation model embeddings (PDFM, AlphaEarth). Simultaneously, it searches over task-tailored model architecture families with automated overfitting guards. Across diverse tasks, geographies, and scientific domains, PPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art or manually tuned expert baselines. For US spatial regression, PPE improves mean R^2 across 21 CDC health indicators (76.8% vs. 60.0%), FEMA national risk indices (64.9% vs. 60.0%), and the Social Vulnerability Index (66.2% vs. 58.6%). For spatial downscaling in data-scarce settings, PPE integrates localized proxies to double baseline accuracy in Nigerian food security indicators (R^2 of 66.1% vs. 31.5%). For epidemiological nowcasting of the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, PPE achieves a Recall@10 of 83.3% (identifying 15 of 18 newly invaded health zones across five weekly forecasts), a +10.3 percentage-point improvement over the public state-of-the-art modeling (~73%). By combining autonomous multimodal planetary data discovery with targeted model optimization, PPE lowers the technical barrier to planetary-scale analytics, enabling rapid, customized, expert-level deployment.

Diffusion-based image compression has recently shown outstanding perceptual fidelity, yet its practicality is hindered by prohibitive sampling overhead and high memory usage. Most existing diffusion codecs employ U-Net architectures, where hierarchical downsampling forces diffusion to operate in shallow latent spaces (typically with only 8x spatial downscaling), resulting in excessive computation. In contrast, conventional VAE-based codecs work in much deeper latent domains (16x - 64x downscaled), motivating a key question: Can diffusion operate effectively in such compact latent spaces without compromising reconstruction quality? To address this, we introduce DiT-IC, an Aligned Diffusion Transformer for Image Compression, which replaces the U-Net with a Diffusion Transformer capable of performing diffusion in latent space entirely at 32x downscaled resolution. DiT-IC adapts a pretrained text-to-image multi-step DiT into a single-step reconstruction model through three key alignment mechanisms: (1) a variance-guided reconstruction flow that adapts denoising strength to latent uncertainty for efficient reconstruction; (2) a self-distillation alignment that enforces consistency with encoder-defined latent geometry to enable one-step diffusion; and (3) a latent-conditioned guidance that replaces text prompts with semantically aligned latent conditions, enabling text-free inference. With these designs, DiT-IC achieves state-of-the-art perceptual quality while offering up to 30x faster decoding and drastically lower memory usage than existing diffusion-based codecs. Remarkably, it can reconstruct 2048x2048 images on a 16 GB laptop GPU.

Effective hydrological modeling and extreme weather analysis demand precipitation data at a kilometer-scale resolution, which is significantly finer than the 10 km scale offered by standard global products like IMERG. To address this, we propose the Wavelet Diffusion Model (WDM), a generative framework that achieves 10x spatial super-resolution (downscaling to 1 km) and delivers a 9x inference speedup over pixel-based diffusion models. WDM is a conditional diffusion model that learns the learns the complex structure of precipitation from MRMS radar data directly in the wavelet domain. By focusing on high-frequency wavelet coefficients, it generates exceptionally realistic and detailed 1-km precipitation fields. This wavelet-based approach produces visually superior results with fewer artifacts than pixel-space models, and delivers a significant gains in sampling efficiency. Our results demonstrate that WDM provides a robust solution to the dual challenges of accuracy and speed in geoscience super-resolution, paving the way for more reliable hydrological forecasts.

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area-demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, data alignment can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

This paper addresses the video rescaling task, which arises from the needs of adapting the video spatial resolution to suit individual viewing devices. We aim to jointly optimize video downscaling and upscaling as a combined task. Most recent studies focus on image-based solutions, which do not consider temporal information. We present two joint optimization approaches based on invertible neural networks with coupling layers. Our Long Short-Term Memory Video Rescaling Network (LSTM-VRN) leverages temporal information in the low-resolution video to form an explicit prediction of the missing high-frequency information for upscaling. Our Multi-input Multi-output Video Rescaling Network (MIMO-VRN) proposes a new strategy for downscaling and upscaling a group of video frames simultaneously. Not only do they outperform the image-based invertible model in terms of quantitative and qualitative results, but also show much improved upscaling quality than the video rescaling methods without joint optimization. To our best knowledge, this work is the first attempt at the joint optimization of video downscaling and upscaling.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a cost-effective approach to complement dynamical downscaling for producing high-resolution regional climate projections. However, the absence of standardised training and evaluation protocols, applied consistently across multiple domains, continues to hinder meaningful model intercomparison. We introduce CORDEX-ML-Bench, a benchmark aligned with CORDEX, which constitutes the first phase of a community initiative to advance data-driven downscaling toward operational readiness, and complement future dynamical downscaling efforts under CMIP7. The framework targets downscaled daily maximum temperature and precipitation to ~10 km resolution (20x increase) across three pilot regions; European Alps, New Zealand, and Southern Africa. Using a perfect-model experimental design, we evaluate 40 ML configurations developed independently, spanning traditional ML, convolutional U-Nets, vision transformers, graph neural networks, and generative models based on diffusion, flow matching, and generative adversarial networks. Models are trained under two experimental periods, an empirical-statistical downscaling pseudo-reality (historical period only) and Emulator (historical and future periods) -and are evaluated against a core set of metrics developed specifically for assessing downscaling skill. Generative models consistently outperform deterministic approaches for precipitation, better capturing fine-scale variability and extremes. For temperature, the generative advantage narrows and deterministic architectures remain competitive. Models trained solely on the historical period systematically underestimate future climate-change signals while those additionally trained on a future period perform better. These findings raise concerns about historically trained models widely used in an operational setting, underscoring the need for rigorous extrapolation testing.

Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models across nowcasting, medium-range, and subseasonal-to-seasonal lead times, producing well-calibrated ensemble forecasts at reduced cost. We review these advances and consider their extension to climate horizons, where the challenge shifts from initial-condition skill to producing reliable statistical responses under altered forcings. AI-powered climate prediction systems must produce credible forced responses to drivers (e.g., greenhouse gases, land-use change) typically outside the observed record. We propose two minimum requirements for AI in climate modeling: (i) external forcing agents must enter explicitly enough to support interventions in which they vary independently; and (ii) robustness must be stress-tested in out-of-distribution regimes, including extremes and counterfactual trajectories. Using leading AI autoregressive emulators and hybrid physics-AI models, we identify development and coupling challenges. Comparing the reported throughput of these models with that of GPU-ported dynamical models highlights how AI can reduce time-to-solution by advancing only the target variables at the required resolution and using longer time steps, rather than integrating a full high-frequency, multivariate state. Diverse AI downscaling strategies can partially substitute for explicit fine-scale resolution, paving the way toward inexpensive local hazard assessment across prediction horizons.

Image downscaling is a fundamental operation in image processing, crucial for adapting high-resolution content to various display and storage constraints. While classic methods often introduce blurring or aliasing, recent learning-based approaches offer improved adaptivity. However, achieving maximal fidelity against ground-truth low-resolution (LR) images, particularly by accounting for channel-specific characteristics, remains an open challenge. This paper introduces ADK-Net (Adaptive Downscaling Kernel Network), a novel deep convolutional neural network framework for high-fidelity supervised image downscaling. ADK-Net explicitly addresses channel interdependencies by learning to predict spatially-varying, adaptive resampling kernels independently for each pixel and uniquely for each color channel (RGB). The architecture employs a hierarchical design featuring a ResNet-based feature extractor and parallel channel-specific kernel generators, themselves composed of ResNet-based trunk and branch sub-modules, enabling fine-grained kernel prediction. Trained end-to-end using an L1 reconstruction loss against ground-truth LR data, ADK-Net effectively learns the target downscaling transformation. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on standard benchmarks, including the RealSR dataset, demonstrate that ADK-Net establishes a new state-of-the-art in supervised image downscaling, yielding significant improvements in PSNR and SSIM metrics compared to existing learning-based and traditional methods.

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling such global inputs to km-scale, as a cost-effective machine learning alternative. The model is trained to predict 2km data from a regional weather model over Taiwan, conditioned on a 25km global reanalysis. To address the large resolution ratio, different physics involved at different scales and prediction of channels beyond those in the input data, we employ a two-step approach where a UNet predicts the mean and a corrector diffusion (CorrDiff) model predicts the residual. CorrDiff exhibits encouraging skill in bulk MAE and CRPS scores. The predicted spectra and distributions from CorrDiff faithfully recover important power law relationships in the target data. Case studies of coherent weather phenomena show that CorrDiff can help sharpen wind and temperature gradients that co-locate with intense rainfall in cold front, and can help intensify typhoons and synthesize rain band structures. Calibration of model uncertainty remains challenging. The prospect of unifying methods like CorrDiff with coarser resolution global weather models implies a potential for global-to-regional multi-scale machine learning simulation.

Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation model for global, hyper-resolution climate downscaling. ORBIT-2 incorporates two key innovations: (1) Residual Slim ViT (Reslim), a lightweight architecture with residual learning and Bayesian regularization for efficient, robust prediction; and (2) TILES, a tile-wise sequence scaling algorithm that reduces self-attention complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling long-sequence processing and massive parallelism. ORBIT-2 scales to 10 billion parameters across 65,536 GPUs, achieving up to 4.1 exaFLOPS sustained throughput and 74--98% strong scaling efficiency. It supports downscaling to 0.9 km global resolution and processes sequences up to 4.2 billion tokens. On 7 km resolution benchmarks, ORBIT-2 achieves high accuracy with R^2 scores in the range of 0.98--0.99 against observational data.

Incorporating spatial information, particularly those influenced by climate, weather, and demographic factors, is crucial for improving underwriting precision and enhancing risk management in insurance. However, spatial data are often unstructured, high-dimensional, and difficult to integrate into predictive models. Embedding methods are needed to convert spatial data into meaningful representations for modelling tasks. We propose a novel multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings that combine information from multiple spatial data sources. To train the model, we construct a spatial dataset that merges satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap features across Europe. The framework aligns these spatial views with coordinate-based encodings, producing low-dimensional embeddings that capture both spatial structure and contextual similarity. Once trained, the model generates embeddings directly from latitude-longitude pairs, enabling any dataset with coordinates to be enriched with meaningful spatial features without requiring access to the original spatial inputs. In a case study on French real estate prices, we compare models trained on raw coordinates against those using our spatial embeddings as inputs. The embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across generalised linear, additive, and boosting models, while providing interpretable spatial effects and demonstrating transferability to unseen regions.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

Deep networks have achieved great success in image rescaling (IR) task that seeks to learn the optimal downscaled representations, i.e., low-resolution (LR) images, to reconstruct the original high-resolution (HR) images. Compared with super-resolution methods that consider a fixed downscaling scheme, e.g., bicubic, IR often achieves significantly better reconstruction performance thanks to the learned downscaled representations. This highlights the importance of a good downscaled representation in image reconstruction tasks. Existing IR methods mainly learn the downscaled representation by jointly optimizing the downscaling and upscaling models. Unlike them, we seek to improve the downscaled representation through a different and more direct way: optimizing the downscaled image itself instead of the down-/upscaling models. Specifically, we propose a collaborative downscaling scheme that directly generates the collaborative LR examples by descending the gradient w.r.t. the reconstruction loss on them to benefit the IR process. Furthermore, since LR images are downscaled from the corresponding HR images, one can also improve the downscaled representation if we have a better representation in the HR domain. Inspired by this, we propose a Hierarchical Collaborative Downscaling (HCD) method that performs gradient descent in both HR and LR domains to improve the downscaled representations. Extensive experiments show that our HCD significantly improves the reconstruction performance both quantitatively and qualitatively. Moreover, we also highlight the flexibility of our HCD since it can generalize well across diverse IR models.

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Many forecast applications require high frequency temporal resolution, yet most state-of-the-art data-driven weather forecasting systems operate at 6-hourly resolution. Although direct hourly forecasting is possible, it suffers from error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. We introduce HourGlass, a probabilistic data-driven temporal downscaling method that reconstructs the evolution between forecast states. HourGlass is trained using variants of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) preserving small-scale spatial variability while encouraging temporal consistency. Unlike existing deterministic temporal downscaling approaches, which tend to produce overly smooth fields, HourGlass generates realistic probabilistic forecasts. Training on forecast trajectories rather than reanalysis or analysis data also avoids the temporal inconsistencies present in datasets used by previous methods. We evaluate HourGlass in two settings: AIFS-HourGlass, applied globally to ECMWF's AIFS-Single and AIFS-ENS forecast systems, and Bris-HourGlass, applied regionally to MET Norway's high-resolution stretched-grid ensemble model, Bris. Verification against observations shows that both models retain the skill of their underlying forecasting systems while producing temporally coherent hourly forecasts with realistic small-scale variability. Case studies demonstrate physically consistent evolution during rapidly developing weather events, including extratropical cyclones and organised convection. Hourly precipitation remains challenging: HourGlass improves the spatial realism of precipitation fields but still underestimates the most intense extremes, a common limitation of data-driven weather forecasting models. These results demonstrate that HourGlass effectively bridges the gap between 6-hourly data-driven forecasts and the hourly products required for operational regional and global forecasting.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Probabilistic super-resolution of high-dimensional spatial fields using diffusion models is often computationally prohibitive due to the cost of operating directly in pixel space. We propose PODiff, a structured conditional generative framework that performs diffusion in a fixed, variance-ordered Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) coefficient space, exploiting the orthogonality of POD modes to impose an interpretable, variance-ordered latent geometry. This design enables efficient ensemble generation, preserves dominant spatial structure, and yields spatially interpretable, well-calibrated uncertainty at substantially lower computational cost. We evaluate PODiff on sea surface temperature downscaling over the West Australian coast and on a controlled advection-diffusion benchmark. PODiff achieves reconstruction accuracy comparable to pixel-space diffusion while requiring significantly less memory and producing more reliable uncertainty estimates than deterministic and Monte Carlo Dropout baselines.

Climate modeling is reaching unprecedented resolution, producing petabytes of data. AI climate model emulators offer a path to computationally cheap analysis, enabling new scientific insight and scenario planning. Recent advances show promise in faithfully emulating climate data. However, prevailing auto-regressive paradigms are difficult to train on climate time horizons due to drifts, instabilities, and component-coupling challenges. They are hard to scale to high resolution and require sifting through troves of output to identify rare extremes of interest. We present Climate in a Bottle (cBottle), a generative diffusion-based framework emulating global 5 km climate simulations and reanalysis on the HEALPix grid. cBottle samples directly from the full distribution of atmospheric states, avoiding auto-regressive rollout, and is the first to reach this 12.5M-pixel global resolution. It consists of two stages: a coarse-resolution generator conditioned on sea surface temperatures and solar position, followed by a patch-based 16x super-resolution stage. cBottle passes a battery of tests, including diurnal-to-seasonal variability, large-scale modes of variability, tropical cyclone statistics, and trends of climate change and weather extremes. It is a step toward a foundation model: bridging data modalities (reanalysis and simulation), enabling zero-shot bias correction, downscaling, and data infilling. It also enables new interactivity via guided diffusion. For example, we train a tropical cyclone (TC) classifier alongside the generator, guide towards TC states, and obtain physically credible samples. This opens the door to guidance methods for a wide array of user queries and new ways of interacting with climate data.

We present HiRO-ACEv2 (High Resolution Output Ai2 Climate Emulator), a two-stage framework for AI emulation of the 3~km resolution X-SHiELD global storm-resolving model (GSRM), and highlight its ability to generate large ensembles of data for studying the characteristics of tropical cyclones and extreme events in high-resolution simulations at an inference computational cost over 300 times lower than that of traditional numerical GSRMs. HiRO-ACEv2 expands upon the precipitation-only HiRO-ACEv1 model to generate coherent precipitation, 10~m winds, and sea level pressure outputs, enabling a broader range of events to be simulated at high-resolution. Fine-resolution predictions are generated by running an autoregressive emulator of coarsened X-SHiELD at 100 km, whose multivariate outputs are regionally downscaled to 3~km resolution via a separately trained diffusion model. Particular importance is placed on capturing the statistics of extreme events during the diffusion downscaling step. Our ability to match the tails of distributions and generate realistic-looking extreme events in both the `perfect prediction' case as well as in free-running emulator rollouts is improved via the use of multiple denoisers at inference time and several updates to the data sampling, noise sampling, and loss weighting during training. HiRO-ACEv2 closely matches the high-resolution reference distributions of precipitation and near-surface winds out to their 99.9999th percentile values, and broadly tracks the reference distribution of tropical cyclone intensities.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models now surpass state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems, but training and operating these models at high spatial resolution remains computationally expensive. We present a modular framework that decouples forecasting from spatial resolution by applying learned generative super-resolution as a post-processing step to coarse-resolution forecast trajectories. We formulate super-resolution as a stochastic inverse problem, using a residual formulation to preserve large-scale structure while reconstructing unresolved variability. The model is trained with flow matching exclusively on reanalysis data and is applied to global medium-range forecasts. We evaluate (i) design consistency by re-coarsening super-resolved forecasts and comparing them to the original coarse trajectories, and (ii) high-resolution forecast quality using standard ensemble verification metrics and spectral diagnostics. Results show that super-resolution preserves large-scale structure and variance after re-coarsening, introduces physically consistent small-scale variability, and achieves competitive probabilistic forecast skill at 0.25° resolution relative to an operational ensemble baseline, while requiring only a modest additional training cost compared with end-to-end high-resolution forecasting.

Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons and has yet to demonstrate stable rollouts under nonstationary forcings. Here, we introduce Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF), a new class of flow matching approaches that model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales. Inspired by cascaded video models, SPF partitions the generative trajectory into a spatiotemporal pyramid, progressively increasing spatial resolution to reduce computation and coupling each stage with an associated timescale to enable direct sampling at any temporal level in the pyramid. This design, together with conditioning each stage on prescribed physical forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases or aerosols), enables efficient, parallel climate emulation at multiple timescales. On ClimateBench, SPF outperforms strong flow matching baselines and pre-trained models at yearly and monthly timescales while offering fast sampling, especially at coarser temporal levels. To scale SPF, we curate ClimateSuite, the largest collection of Earth system simulations to date, comprising over 33,000 simulation-years across ten climate models and the first dataset to include simulations of climate interventions. We find that the scaled SPF model demonstrates good generalization to held-out scenarios across climate models. Together, SPF and ClimateSuite provide a foundation for accurate, efficient, probabilistic climate emulation across temporal scales and realistic future scenarios. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf .

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Recent generative AI models have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in language and visual understanding. However, although these models can generate realistic visual content, their spatial scale remains confined to bounded environments, preventing them from capturing how geographic environments evolve across thousands of kilometers or from modeling the spatial structure of the large-scale physical world. This limitation poses a critical challenge for ultra-wide-area spatial intelligence in Earth observation and simulation, revealing a deeper gap in generative AI: progress has relied primarily on scaling model parameters and training data, while overlooking spatial scale as a core dimension of intelligence. Here, motivated by this missing dimension, we investigate spatial scale as a new scaling axis in foundation models and present MetaEarth3D, the first generative foundation model capable of spatially consistent generation at the planetary scale. Taking optical Earth observation simulation as a testbed, MetaEarth3D enables the generation of multi-level, unbounded, and diverse 3D scenes spanning large-scale terrains, medium-scale cities, and fine-grained street blocks. Built upon 10 million globally distributed real-world training images, MetaEarth3D demonstrates both strong visual realism and geospatial statistical realism. Beyond generation, MetaEarth3D serves as a generative data engine for diverse virtual environments in ultra-wide spatial intelligence. We argue that this study may help empower next-generation spatial intelligence for Earth observation.

Kilometer-scale simulations of the atmosphere are an important tool for assessing local weather extremes and climate impacts, but computational expense limits their use to small regions, short periods, and limited ensembles. Machine learning offers a pathway to efficiently emulate these high-resolution simulations. Here we introduce HiRO-ACE, a two-stage AI modeling framework combining a stochastic version of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2S) with diffusion-based downscaling (HiRO) to generate 3 km precipitation fields over arbitrary regions of the globe. Both components are trained on data derived from a decade of atmospheric simulation by X-SHiELD, a 3 km global storm-resolving model. HiRO performs a 32x downscaling--generating 3 km 6-hourly precipitation from coarse 100 km inputs by training on paired high-resolution and coarsened X-SHiELD outputs. ACE2S is a 1^circ times 1^circ (sim100 km) stochastic autoregressive global atmosphere emulator that maintains grid-scale precipitation variability consistent with coarsened X-SHiELD, enabling its outputs to be ingested by HiRO without additional tuning. HiRO-ACE reproduces the distribution of extreme precipitation rates through the 99.99th percentile, with time-mean precipitation biases below 10% almost everywhere. The framework generates plausible tropical cyclones, fronts, and convective events from poorly resolved coarse inputs. Its computational efficiency allows generation of 6-hourly high-resolution regional precipitation for decades of simulated climate within a single day using one H100 GPU, while the probabilistic design enables ensemble generation for quantifying uncertainty. This establishes an AI-enabled pathway for affordably leveraging the realism of expensive km-scale simulations to support local climate adaptation planning and extreme event risk assessment.

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

In this paper, we propose Image Downscaling Assessment by Rate-Distortion (IDA-RD), a novel measure to quantitatively evaluate image downscaling algorithms. In contrast to image-based methods that measure the quality of downscaled images, ours is process-based that draws ideas from rate-distortion theory to measure the distortion incurred during downscaling. Our main idea is that downscaling and super-resolution (SR) can be viewed as the encoding and decoding processes in the rate-distortion model, respectively, and that a downscaling algorithm that preserves more details in the resulting low-resolution (LR) images should lead to less distorted high-resolution (HR) images in SR. In other words, the distortion should increase as the downscaling algorithm deteriorates. However, it is non-trivial to measure this distortion as it requires the SR algorithm to be blind and stochastic. Our key insight is that such requirements can be met by recent SR algorithms based on deep generative models that can find all matching HR images for a given LR image on their learned image manifolds. Extensive experimental results show the effectiveness of our IDA-RD measure.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at fixed locations, which are called NWP grid points, by analyzing previous atmospheric states and newly acquired Earth observations. However, the shifting locations of observations and the surrounding meteorological context induce complex, dynamic spatial correlations that are difficult for traditional NWP systems to capture, since they rely on strict statistical and physical formulations. To handle complicated spatial correlations, which change dynamically, we employ a spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) with structure learning. However, structure learning has an inherent limitation that this can cause structural information loss and over-smoothing problem by generating excessive edges. To solve this problem, we regulate edge sampling by adaptively determining node degrees and considering the spatial distances between NWP grid points and observations. We validated the effectiveness of the proposed method (CloudNine-v2) using real-world atmospheric state and observation data from East Asia, achieving up to 15\% reductions in RMSE over existing STGNN models. Even in areas with high atmospheric variability, CloudNine-v2 consistently outperformed baselines with and without structure learning.

Global reanalyses are too coarse to resolve the convective systems that produce most West African monsoon rainfall. In this work, we use U-Net based architectures to downscale daily ERA5 fields (0.25°) to IMERG V07 satellite precipitation (0.1°) over West Africa for the June to October seasons of 2000 to 2024, using geopotential, temperature, humidity and wind at three pressure levels together with elevation and land fraction. Adding ERA5 precipitation as input slightly improves performance for this particular challenging region. We find that all the deterministic networks investigated for this work are too dry and lose almost all observed variance below a few hundred kilometers, which motivated our use of a GAN-based alternative. We also investigated permutation importance for the U-Net that ranks 500 hPa specific humidity first, consistent with the sensitivity of deep convection to mid-tropospheric moisture.

Understanding the risks posed by extreme rainfall events requires analysis of precipitation fields with high resolution (to assess localized hazards) and extensive historical coverage (to capture sufficient examples of rare occurrences). Radar and mesonet networks provide precipitation fields at 1 km resolution but with limited historical and geographical coverage, while gauge-based records and reanalysis products cover decades of time on a global scale, but only at 30-50 km resolution. To help provide high-resolution precipitation estimates over long time scales, this study presents Wasserstein Regularized Diffusion (WassDiff), a diffusion framework to downscale (super-resolve) precipitation fields from low-resolution gauge and reanalysis products. Crucially, unlike related deep generative models, WassDiff integrates a Wasserstein distribution-matching regularizer to the denoising process to reduce empirical biases at extreme intensities. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that WassDiff quantitatively outperforms existing state-of-the-art generative downscaling methods at recovering extreme weather phenomena such as tropical storms and cold fronts. Case studies further qualitatively demonstrate WassDiff's ability to reproduce realistic fine-scale weather structures and accurate peak intensities. By unlocking decades of high-resolution rainfall information from globally available coarse records, WassDiff offers a practical pathway toward more accurate flood-risk assessments and climate-adaptation planning.

Diffusion transformers deliver strong image generation, but their training cost grows superlinearly with resolution. Recent work justifies training or sampling at reduced resolution on a spectral premise: at high noise, a downscaled latent preserves almost the full surviving signal. Whether a downscaled step also preserves the native training gradient signal, however, has remained unresolved. We reduce how that signal changes under downscaling to two terms: a noise-dependent term governed by the downscale ratio, which decays at high noise as the spectral premise predicts, and a σ-independent floor governed by the target grid's absolute token count, carried by the compute graph itself and removed by no noise level. The measured (route, σ) map corroborates the account and uncovers structure the spectral picture cannot express: on the 1024->768 route, a window (0.65 < σ< 0.95), predicted by no spectral criterion at any tolerance, where the downscaled gradient stays within a small margin of the native one. Training LoRA adapters with downscaled steps restricted to the routes and noise windows the map validates reduces training time by 14.6% at a fixed step budget while remaining near-native in weight space. Code is available at https://github.com/sorryhyun/anima_lora.

We introduce Cosmos-Transfer, a conditional world generation model that can generate world simulations based on multiple spatial control inputs of various modalities such as segmentation, depth, and edge. In the design, the spatial conditional scheme is adaptive and customizable. It allows weighting different conditional inputs differently at different spatial locations. This enables highly controllable world generation and finds use in various world-to-world transfer use cases, including Sim2Real. We conduct extensive evaluations to analyze the proposed model and demonstrate its applications for Physical AI, including robotics Sim2Real and autonomous vehicle data enrichment. We further demonstrate an inference scaling strategy to achieve real-time world generation with an NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 rack. To help accelerate research development in the field, we open-source our models and code at https://github.com/nvidia-cosmos/cosmos-transfer1.

Pixel-wise predictions are required in a wide variety of tasks such as image restoration, image segmentation, or disparity estimation. Common models involve several stages of data resampling, in which the resolution of feature maps is first reduced to aggregate information and then increased to generate a high-resolution output. Previous works have shown that resampling operations are subject to artifacts such as aliasing. During downsampling, aliases have been shown to compromise the prediction stability of image classifiers. During upsampling, they have been leveraged to detect generated content. Yet, the effect of aliases during upsampling has not yet been discussed w.r.t. the stability and robustness of pixel-wise predictions. While falling under the same term (aliasing), the challenges for correct upsampling in neural networks differ significantly from those during downsampling: when downsampling, some high frequencies can not be correctly represented and have to be removed to avoid aliases. However, when upsampling for pixel-wise predictions, we actually require the model to restore such high frequencies that can not be encoded in lower resolutions. The application of findings from signal processing is therefore a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve the desirable output. In contrast, we find that the availability of large spatial context during upsampling allows to provide stable, high-quality pixel-wise predictions, even when fully learning all filter weights.

Understanding controls on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is critical for predicting rainfall extremes across scales. Spatial variability of soil moisture (SM) presents such a control, with ~200km dry patches in the Sahel observed to intensify mature MCSs. Here we test MCS sensitivity to spatial scales of surface heterogeneity using a framework of 78 Unified Model experiments initialised from scale-filtered SM. We demonstrate the control of SM heterogeneity on MCS populations, and the mechanistic chain via which spatial variability propagates through surface fluxes to convective boundary layer development and storm environments. When all sub-synoptic SM variability is homogenised, peak MCS counts drop by 23%, whereas maintaining small-scale variability maintains primary initiation rates, reducing the drop in MCS totals. In sensitivity experiments, boundary layer development prior to MCSs is similar to that over mesoscale dry SM anomalies, but driven by cloud-free slots of increased shortwave radiation. This reduces storm numbers and potential predictability.

The increasing availability of large-scale global datasets has generated a demand for scalable spatial prediction methods defined on spherical domains. Classical spatial models that rely on Euclidean distance representations are inappropriate for spherical data because planar projections distort geodesic distances and spatial neighborhood structures, while traditional kriging-based prediction methods are often computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a Spherical DeepKriging framework for spatial prediction on S^2. The proposed approach constructs a flexible prediction model by integrating thin-plate spline (TPS) basis functions defined intrinsically on the sphere. Simulation studies and real data analyses are presented to demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed method.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising alternative approach is to use machine learning to build new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output. However, parameterizations learned from three-dimensional model output have not yet been successfully used for simulations of climate. Here we use a random forest to learn a parameterization of subgrid processes from output of a three-dimensional high-resolution atmospheric model. Integrating this parameterization into the atmospheric model leads to stable simulations at coarse resolution that replicate the climate of the high-resolution simulation. The parameterization obeys physical constraints and captures important statistics such as precipitation extremes. The ability to learn from a fully three-dimensional simulation presents an opportunity for learning parameterizations from the wide range of global high-resolution simulations that are now emerging.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

The choice of representation for geographic location significantly impacts the accuracy of models for a broad range of geospatial tasks, including fine-grained species classification, population density estimation, and biome classification. Recent works like SatCLIP and GeoCLIP learn such representations by contrastively aligning geolocation with co-located images. While these methods work exceptionally well, in this paper, we posit that the current training strategies fail to fully capture the important visual features. We provide an information-theoretic perspective on why the resulting embeddings from these methods discard crucial visual information that is important for many downstream tasks. To solve this problem, we propose a novel retrieval-augmented strategy called RANGE. We build our method on the intuition that the visual features of a location can be estimated by combining the visual features from multiple similar-looking locations. We evaluate our method across a wide variety of tasks. Our results show that RANGE outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models with significant margins in most tasks. We show gains of up to 13.1% on classification tasks and 0.145 R^2 on regression tasks. All our code and models will be made available at: https://github.com/mvrl/RANGE.

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

The primary aim of single-image super-resolution is to construct high-resolution (HR) images from corresponding low-resolution (LR) inputs. In previous approaches, which have generally been supervised, the training objective typically measures a pixel-wise average distance between the super-resolved (SR) and HR images. Optimizing such metrics often leads to blurring, especially in high variance (detailed) regions. We propose an alternative formulation of the super-resolution problem based on creating realistic SR images that downscale correctly. We present an algorithm addressing this problem, PULSE (Photo Upsampling via Latent Space Exploration), which generates high-resolution, realistic images at resolutions previously unseen in the literature. It accomplishes this in an entirely self-supervised fashion and is not confined to a specific degradation operator used during training, unlike previous methods (which require supervised training on databases of LR-HR image pairs). Instead of starting with the LR image and slowly adding detail, PULSE traverses the high-resolution natural image manifold, searching for images that downscale to the original LR image. This is formalized through the "downscaling loss," which guides exploration through the latent space of a generative model. By leveraging properties of high-dimensional Gaussians, we restrict the search space to guarantee realistic outputs. PULSE thereby generates super-resolved images that both are realistic and downscale correctly. We show proof of concept of our approach in the domain of face super-resolution (i.e., face hallucination). We also present a discussion of the limitations and biases of the method as currently implemented with an accompanying model card with relevant metrics. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in perceptual quality at higher resolutions and scale factors than previously possible.

We present GeoGrid-Bench, a benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of foundation models to understand geo-spatial data in the grid structure. Geo-spatial datasets pose distinct challenges due to their dense numerical values, strong spatial and temporal dependencies, and unique multimodal representations including tabular data, heatmaps, and geographic visualizations. To assess how foundation models can support scientific research in this domain, GeoGrid-Bench features large-scale, real-world data covering 16 climate variables across 150 locations and extended time frames. The benchmark includes approximately 3,200 question-answer pairs, systematically generated from 8 domain expert-curated templates to reflect practical tasks encountered by human scientists. These range from basic queries at a single location and time to complex spatiotemporal comparisons across regions and periods. Our evaluation reveals that vision-language models perform best overall, and we provide a fine-grained analysis of the strengths and limitations of different foundation models in different geo-spatial tasks. This benchmark offers clearer insights into how foundation models can be effectively applied to geo-spatial data analysis and used to support scientific research.

Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) to functionally decompose the structural, correlative, and cooperative contributions of key land-atmosphere variables to precipitation. Benchmark tests confirm that HDMR overcomes limitations of commonly used correlation and regression approaches in isolating direct versus indirect effects. For example, analysis of gross primary productivity using a light-use-efficiency model shows that linear regression underestimates the temperature effect, while HDMR captures it accurately. Applying HDMR to CONUS404 reanalysis data reveals that morning soil moisture explains up to 40 percent of the variance in summertime afternoon precipitation over the Great Plains, more than double prior estimates. On days with afternoon rainfall (12-hour totals of 4.7-8.2 mm), first-order SM effects can boost precipitation by up to 8 mm under wet conditions, with an additional 3 mm from second-order interactions involving temperature and moisture. By capturing real-world co-variability and higher-order effects, HDMR provides a physically grounded, data-driven framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling. These results underscore the need for more nuanced, interaction-aware data analysis methods in climate modeling and prediction.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

Prediction of wildfire occurrence is a rare-event problem compounded by spatial heterogeneity and temporal distribution shift, as fire occurrences are vastly outnumbered by non-occurrences, and predictor--fire relationship varies across space and time. Models trained on historical fire data may perform poorly under new conditions and require adaptation to the target distribution before operational use. We propose PyroAdapt, a pretrain--retrieve--rank framework that adapts a pretrained model to target conditions by retrieving historical locations with similar conditions and fine-tuning on the retrievals through risk ranking. For spatial adaptation, we condition risk on terrain, ecoregion embeddings, and fire rates, accounting for spatial context in the retrieval, and learn risk ordering from same-day fire--nonfire cell pairs. We compare direct ranking, residual pairwise DPO (RDPO), and selective ranking through a unified score-gap formulation that characterizes their gradient allocation. Over California (discretized into 666 0.25x0.25 grid cells), these objectives raise daily average precision from 21.62% for continued focal fine-tuning to 24.35--24.57%, and Top5% recall from 18.70% to 22.11--22.79%. Under a fixed daily detection budget of 34 cells (5% area), selective ranking captures 344 additional positive cell--days. For fires in the top 5%/10%/20% of dry matter consumption, selective ranking raises recall by 39.70/28.18/20.50 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, rolling evaluations over Yosemite show that the gains from ranking persist under temporal distribution shift. Together, these results show that PyroAdapt prioritizes the most fire-prone locations under a daily budget constraint and detects more extreme fire events.

Climate change has resulted in a year over year increase in adverse weather and weather conditions which contribute to increasingly severe fire seasons. Without effective mitigation, these fires pose a threat to life, property, ecology, cultural heritage, and critical infrastructure. To better prepare for and react to the increasing threat of wildfires, more accurate fire modelers and mitigation responses are necessary. In this paper, we introduce SimFire, a versatile wildland fire projection simulator designed to generate realistic wildfire scenarios, and SimHarness, a modular agent-based machine learning wrapper capable of automatically generating land management strategies within SimFire to reduce the overall damage to the area. Together, this publicly available system allows researchers and practitioners the ability to emulate and assess the effectiveness of firefighter interventions and formulate strategic plans that prioritize value preservation and resource allocation optimization. The repositories are available for download at https://github.com/mitrefireline.

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic data on a common grid hinders progress toward truly multimodal Earth system foundation models. We present WorldTensor, a harmonised global dataset that aligns hundreds of environmental and socioeconomic variables to a standardised 0.25^circ spatial grid and annual temporal framework. WorldTensor integrates reanalysis products, remote sensing, emissions inventories, land use reconstructions, hydrological observations, infrastructure and hazard datasets, and socioeconomic indicators within a single representation designed for machine learning workflows. To build the dataset, we regridded inputs across heterogeneous native resolutions and projections, rasterised point and vector datasets into spatially meaningful gridded fields, and reconciled temporal coverages ranging from daily observations to sparse multiyear socioeconomic snapshots. All outputs are distributed as NetCDF files with standardised coordinates, variable metadata, and a common CF metadata convention. WorldTensor provides a reproducible resource for training and evaluating foundation models that learn coupled dynamics across environmental and human systems at planetary scale.

Motivated by recent advances in operational weather forecasting, we study the efficacy of low-precision arithmetic for climate simulations. We develop a framework to measure rounding error in a climate model which provides a stress-test for a low-precision version of the model, and we apply our method to a variety of models including the Lorenz system; a shallow water approximation for flow over a ridge; and a coarse resolution global atmospheric model with simplified parameterisations (SPEEDY). Although double precision (52 significant bits) is standard across operational climate models, in our experiments we find that single precision (23 sbits) is more than enough and that as low as half precision (10 sbits) is often sufficient. For example, SPEEDY can be run with 12 sbits across the entire code with negligible rounding error and this can be lowered to 10 sbits if very minor errors are accepted, amounting to less than 0.1 mm/6hr for the average grid-point precipitation, for example. Our test is based on the Wasserstein metric and this provides stringent non-parametric bounds on rounding error accounting for annual means as well as extreme weather events. In addition, by testing models using both round-to-nearest (RN) and stochastic rounding (SR) we find that SR can mitigate rounding error across a range of applications. Thus our results also provide evidence that SR could be relevant to next-generation climate models. While many studies have shown that low-precision arithmetic can be suitable on short-term weather forecasting timescales, our results give the first evidence that a similar low precision level can be suitable for climate.

Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale are provided by numerical weather models and extrapolation methods, both of which have limitations. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models provide skillful forecasts at these scales but require significant modeling expertise and computational infrastructure, which limits their accessibility. Extrapolation-based methods are computationally lightweight but degrade rapidly beyond 1-2 hours. This presents an opportunity for data-driven forecasting directly from observations using geostationary satellites and ground-based radar, which provide high-frequency, high-resolution observations that capture mesoscale atmospheric evolution. We introduce Stormscope, a family of transformer-based generative diffusion models trained on high-resolution, multi-band geostationary satellite imagery and ground-based weather radar over the continental United States. Stormscope produces forecasts at a temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 6 kilometer spatial resolution, which are competitive with state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP models for lead times up to 6 hours. Its generative architecture enables large ensemble forecasts of explicit mesoscale dynamics for robust uncertainty quantification. Evaluated against extrapolation methods and operational mesoscale NWP models, Stormscope achieves leading performance on standard deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics across forecast horizons from 1 to 6 hours. As Stormscope relies on globally available satellite observations (and radar where available), it offers a pathway to extend skillful mesoscale forecasting to oceanic regions and countries without strong operational mesoscale modeling programs.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) can be dramatically accelerated by spatial grid representations. However, they do not explicitly reason about scale and so introduce aliasing artifacts when reconstructing scenes captured at different camera distances. Mip-NeRF and its extensions propose scale-aware renderers that project volumetric frustums rather than point samples but such approaches rely on positional encodings that are not readily compatible with grid methods. We propose a simple modification to grid-based models by training model heads at different spatial grid resolutions. At render time, we simply use coarser grids to render samples that cover larger volumes. Our method can be easily applied to existing accelerated NeRF methods and significantly improves rendering quality (reducing error rates by 20-90% across synthetic and unbounded real-world scenes) while incurring minimal performance overhead (as each model head is quick to evaluate). Compared to Mip-NeRF, we reduce error rates by 20% while training over 60x faster.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an accelerated rate due to processes that are not fully understood and hard to measure. The distribution of surface meltwater can help understand these processes and is observable through remote sensing, but current maps of meltwater face a trade-off: They are either high-resolution in time or space, but not both. We develop a deep learning model that creates gridded surface meltwater maps at daily 100m resolution by fusing data streams from remote sensing observations and physics-based models. In particular, we spatiotemporally downscale regional climate model (RCM) outputs using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), passive microwave (PMW), and a digital elevation model (DEM) over the Helheim Glacier in Eastern Greenland from 2017-2023. Using SAR-derived meltwater as "ground truth", we show that a deep learning-based method that fuses all data streams is over 10 percentage points more accurate over our study area than existing non deep learning-based approaches that only rely on a regional climate model (83% vs. 95% Acc.) or passive microwave observations (72% vs. 95% Acc.). Alternatively, creating a gridded product through a running window calculation with SAR data underestimates extreme melt events, but also achieves notable accuracy (90%) and does not rely on deep learning. We evaluate standard deep learning methods (UNet and DeepLabv3+), and publish our spatiotemporally aligned dataset as a benchmark, MeltwaterBench, for intercomparisons with more complex data-driven downscaling methods. The code and data are available at github.com/blutjens/hrmelt.

Physical simulations produce excellent predictions of weather effects. Neural radiance fields produce SOTA scene models. We describe a novel NeRF-editing procedure that can fuse physical simulations with NeRF models of scenes, producing realistic movies of physical phenomena in those scenes. Our application -- Climate NeRF -- allows people to visualize what climate change outcomes will do to them. ClimateNeRF allows us to render realistic weather effects, including smog, snow, and flood. Results can be controlled with physically meaningful variables like water level. Qualitative and quantitative studies show that our simulated results are significantly more realistic than those from SOTA 2D image editing and SOTA 3D NeRF stylization.

Wildfires are increasingly exacerbated as a result of climate change, necessitating advanced proactive measures for effective mitigation. It is important to forecast wildfires weeks and months in advance to plan forest fuel management, resource procurement and allocation. To achieve such accurate long-term forecasts at a global scale, it is crucial to employ models that account for the Earth system's inherent spatio-temporal interactions, such as memory effects and teleconnections. We propose a teleconnection-driven vision transformer (TeleViT), capable of treating the Earth as one interconnected system, integrating fine-grained local-scale inputs with global-scale inputs, such as climate indices and coarse-grained global variables. Through comprehensive experimentation, we demonstrate the superiority of TeleViT in accurately predicting global burned area patterns for various forecasting windows, up to four months in advance. The gain is especially pronounced in larger forecasting windows, demonstrating the improved ability of deep learning models that exploit teleconnections to capture Earth system dynamics. Code available at https://github.com/Orion-Ai-Lab/TeleViT.

Deep learning based single image super-resolution models have been widely studied and superb results are achieved in upscaling low-resolution images with fixed scale factor and downscaling degradation kernel. To improve real world applicability of such models, there are growing interests to develop models optimized for arbitrary upscaling factors. Our proposed method is the first to treat arbitrary rescaling, both upscaling and downscaling, as one unified process. Using joint optimization of both directions, the proposed model is able to learn upscaling and downscaling simultaneously and achieve bidirectional arbitrary image rescaling. It improves the performance of current arbitrary upscaling models by a large margin while at the same time learns to maintain visual perception quality in downscaled images. The proposed model is further shown to be robust in cycle idempotence test, free of severe degradations in reconstruction accuracy when the downscaling-to-upscaling cycle is applied repetitively. This robustness is beneficial for image rescaling in the wild when this cycle could be applied to one image for multiple times. It also performs well on tests with arbitrary large scales and asymmetric scales, even when the model is not trained with such tasks. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of our model.

Climate change is expected to intensify and increase extreme events in the weather cycle. Since this has a significant impact on various sectors of our life, recent works are concerned with identifying and predicting such extreme events from Earth observations. With respect to wildfire danger forecasting, previous deep learning approaches duplicate static variables along the time dimension and neglect the intrinsic differences between static and dynamic variables. Furthermore, most existing multi-branch architectures lose the interconnections between the branches during the feature learning stage. To address these issues, this paper proposes a 2D/3D two-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Location-aware Adaptive Normalization layer (LOAN). Using LOAN as a building block, we can modulate the dynamic features conditional on their geographical locations. Thus, our approach considers feature properties as a unified yet compound 2D/3D model. Besides, we propose using the sinusoidal-based encoding of the day of the year to provide the model with explicit temporal information about the target day within the year. Our experimental results show a better performance of our approach than other baselines on the challenging FireCube dataset. The results show that location-aware adaptive feature normalization is a promising technique to learn the relation between dynamic variables and their geographic locations, which is highly relevant for areas where remote sensing data builds the basis for analysis. The source code is available at https://github.com/HakamShams/LOAN.

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8^circ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

The interaction between the Earths surface and the atmosphere plays a key role in the initiation of cumulus convection. Over the land surface, a necessary boundary condition to consider for resolving land-atmosphere interactions is soil moisture. The aim in the study is twofold. One, through object oriented and traditional verification techniques determine how higher resolution soil moisture initial conditions influences the prediction of the location and timing of convective initiation (CI) within a convective permitting, operational NWP model over South Africa. Two, to study the modelled CI-soil moisture relationship during real afternoon thunderstorm events. The study reports the results from 66 Unified Model simulations (at 4.4km grid resolution) for nine summer afternoon CI events during synoptically benign conditions over South Africa. The higher resolution soil moisture conditions reduce centroid distance between observed and forecast storms on average by 7km (9 percent improvement), with the most decrease in centroid distance occurring at the shortest lead times, by 12km. Most improvement in location error occurs in the zonal directional. However, little to no difference is found in the timing of CI, most likely attributable to the dominant effect of model grid size on CI timing, overshadowing the influence from soil moisture anomalies. Probability of CI is highest over dry and moderate soils and areas along distinct soil moisture gradients. The conclusion is that modelled CI over South Africa preferentially occurs on the periphery of wet soil moisture patches, where there is increased surface convergence of wind and higher sensible heat flux.

Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost -- roughly one MWh per simulated day on exascale supercomputers -- that limits long-duration simulation. We introduce STRATA (Storm-resolving Tile-based autoRegressive Atmosphere Transformer Architecture), the first autoregressive AI emulator for global storm-resolving atmospheric dynamics. STRATA is trained on the highest-resolution atmospheric dataset yet used for global AI emulation: 17 days of SCREAM physics-model output at 4.9-km resolution (~25 million grid cells) sampled every 10 minutes. Our central premise is that on 10-minute timescales atmospheric dynamics are predominantly local, so training on small spatial tiles trades scarce global temporal samples for abundant local spatial samples and enables global rollout via overlapping-tile blending. STRATA combines 3D patch embedding and local 3D neighborhood attention, a novel Stereographic Rotary Position Embedding (StereoRoPE) for grid-invariant encoding, and a pixel-space de-aliasing decoder that suppresses patch-scale rollout artifacts. An iso-FLOP scaling study reveals that km-scale emulation requires ~10x more FLOPs per grid point than coarse-resolution AI weather models, consistent with the higher information density of convective-scale dynamics. Trained on only 17 days of data, STRATA produces stable 24-hour global rollouts with realistic km-scale dynamics across diverse regimes, though large-scale biases develop with lead time. It achieves 48 simulation days per megawatt-hour -- about 50 times better energy efficiency than the SCREAM physics model -- and 741 simulated days per wall-clock day at 512 H100 GPUs. Code and dataset are publicly available.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

New geospatial foundation models introduce a new model architecture and pretraining dataset, often sampled using different notions of data diversity. Performance differences are largely attributed to the model architecture or input modalities, while the role of the pretraining dataset is rarely studied. To address this research gap, we conducted a systematic study on how the geographic composition of pretraining data affects a model's downstream performance. We created global and per-continent pretraining datasets and evaluated them on global and per-continent downstream datasets. We found that the pretraining dataset from Europe outperformed global and continent-specific pretraining datasets on both global and local downstream evaluations. To investigate the factors influencing a pretraining dataset's downstream performance, we analysed 10 pretraining datasets using diversity across continents, biomes, landcover and spectral values. We found that only spectral diversity was strongly correlated with performance, while others were weakly correlated. This finding establishes a new dimension of diversity to be accounted for when creating a high-performing pretraining dataset. We open-sourced 7 new pretraining datasets, pretrained models, and our experimental framework at https://github.com/kerner-lab/pretrain-where.

The development of 0.1^{circ} global weather forecasting models based on machine learning (ML) is constrained by the limited availability of high-resolution data, as decades of reanalysis are only available at 0.25^{circ} resolution. While existing approaches fine-tune 0.25^{circ} forecast models on limited 0.1^{circ} samples, we show that this transfer is hindered by the irreversible information loss inherent in coarse-resolution forecasting. Therefore, we propose BaguanHR, a framework that shifts the focus from transferring models to transferring data. We first show that super-resolution (SR) has lower conditional entropy and input amplification than forecasting, making it a more robust vehicle for resolution transfer. By leveraging this advantage through variable-wise SR, we synthesize extensive 0.1^{circ} data from ERA5. BaguanHR's performance on the synthetic-plus-real dataset exceeds both ML-based methods and IFS-HRES, achieving superior performance across over 85% of the lead times within 72 hours. Furthermore, our findings highlight a power-law scaling effect, as a twofold increase in data reduces RMSE by 4.6% for 72-hour forecasting and 4.9% for 120-hour forecasting. Our results demonstrate that scaling high resolution ML-based forecasting is primarily a data bottleneck, and that variable-wise super-resolution provides a simple yet general solution to unlock long coarse-resolution reanalyses for high-resolution training.

Many perception systems in mobile computing, autonomous navigation, and AR/VR face strict compute constraints that are particularly challenging for high-resolution input images. Previous works propose nonuniform downsamplers that "learn to zoom" on salient image regions, reducing compute while retaining task-relevant image information. However, for tasks with spatial labels (such as 2D/3D object detection and semantic segmentation), such distortions may harm performance. In this work (LZU), we "learn to zoom" in on the input image, compute spatial features, and then "unzoom" to revert any deformations. To enable efficient and differentiable unzooming, we approximate the zooming warp with a piecewise bilinear mapping that is invertible. LZU can be applied to any task with 2D spatial input and any model with 2D spatial features, and we demonstrate this versatility by evaluating on a variety of tasks and datasets: object detection on Argoverse-HD, semantic segmentation on Cityscapes, and monocular 3D object detection on nuScenes. Interestingly, we observe boosts in performance even when high-resolution sensor data is unavailable, implying that LZU can be used to "learn to upsample" as well.

Weather forecasting is dominated by numerical weather prediction that tries to model accurately the physical properties of the atmosphere. A downside of numerical weather prediction is that it is lacking the ability for short-term forecasts using the latest available information. By using a data-driven neural network approach we show that it is possible to produce an accurate precipitation nowcast. To this end, we propose SmaAt-UNet, an efficient convolutional neural networks-based on the well known UNet architecture equipped with attention modules and depthwise-separable convolutions. We evaluate our approaches on a real-life datasets using precipitation maps from the region of the Netherlands and binary images of cloud coverage of France. The experimental results show that in terms of prediction performance, the proposed model is comparable to other examined models while only using a quarter of the trainable parameters.

Urban populations are increasingly exposed to extreme heat events such as heatwaves, which can be exacerbated in cities due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. With the aim of developing adaptation strategies, recent years have seen a growing interest in deploying high-resolution measurement networks using low-cost devices (LCDs), which enable the evaluation of intra-urban temperature distribution and its impacts at an unprecedented spatial resolution. However, the reliability of LCD measurements has been called into question, especially regarding potential overheating due to inadequate radiation shielding. In this study, we develop a statistical method to correct temperature biases based on short-wave radiation using a generalized additive model (GAM) and then apply it to LCD measurements in the urban climate networks of the cities of Bern, Lausanne, Neuchatel and Zurich (Switzerland). To that end, we first calibrate the correction procedure to the LCD models used in each city using an intercomparison field study, in which the LCD models are collocated next to a professional automated weather station (AWS) operated by MeteoSwiss in the rural surroundings of Bern. Then, we evaluate how these corrections can influence two climate indices, namely the number of tropical nights and the number of heat warnings issued in each city according to MeteoSwiss heat warning system. The findings suggest that the current AWS underestimate the heat warnings, whereas some LCD models likely overestimate them due to radiative errors. Nevertheless, uncorrected LCD measurements still provide a more reliable estimate of urban temperatures than AWS located outside urban settings. The insights can guide selection of LCD models for new monitoring networks and support the application of model-specific radiative bias corrections to existing LCDs, enabling more accurate assessments of heat and its impacts.

Accurate Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) mapping at both large scale and high spatio-temporal resolution is essential for applications ranging from climate modeling to biodiversity assessment, and sustainable supply chain monitoring. At present, fine-grained AGB mapping relies on costly airborne laser scanning acquisition campaigns usually limited to regional scales. Initiatives such as the ESA CCI map attempt to generate global biomass products from diverse spaceborne sensors but at a coarser resolution. To enable global, high-resolution (HR) mapping, several works propose to regress AGB from HR satellite observations such as ESA Sentinel-1/2 images. We propose a novel way to address HR AGB estimation, by leveraging both HR satellite observations and existing low-resolution (LR) biomass products. We cast this problem as Guided Super-Resolution (GSR), aiming at upsampling LR biomass maps (sources) from 100 to 10 m resolution, using auxiliary HR co-registered satellite images (guides). We compare super-resolving AGB maps with and without guidance, against direct regression from satellite images, on the public BioMassters dataset. We observe that Multi-Scale Guidance (MSG) outperforms direct regression both for regression (-780 t/ha RMSE) and perception (+2.0 dB PSNR) metrics, and better captures high-biomass values, without significant computational overhead. Interestingly, unlike the RGB+Depth setting they were originally designed for, our best-performing AGB GSR approaches are those that most preserve the guide image texture. Our results make a strong case for adopting the GSR framework for accurate HR biomass mapping at scale. Our code and model weights are made publicly available (https://github.com/kaankaramanofficial/GSR4B).

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent pursuit in the meteorology domain. Active international efforts have been made in past decades to improve the spatial resolution of numerical weather models. Nonetheless, developing the higher resolution numerical model remains a long-standing challenge due to the substantial consumption of computational resources. Recent advances in data-driven global weather forecasting models utilize reanalysis data for model training and have demonstrated comparable or even higher forecasting skills than numerical models. However, they are all limited by the resolution of reanalysis data and incapable of generating higher-resolution forecasts. This work presents FengWu-GHR, the first data-driven global weather forecasting model running at the 0.09^{circ} horizontal resolution. FengWu-GHR introduces a novel approach that opens the door for operating ML-based high-resolution forecasts by inheriting prior knowledge from a pretrained low-resolution model. The hindcast of weather prediction in 2022 indicates that FengWu-GHR is superior to the IFS-HRES. Furthermore, evaluations on station observations and case studies of extreme events support the competitive operational forecasting skill of FengWu-GHR at the high resolution.

Climate change is a major threat to humanity, and the actions required to prevent its catastrophic consequences include changes in both policy-making and individual behaviour. However, taking action requires understanding the effects of climate change, even though they may seem abstract and distant. Projecting the potential consequences of extreme climate events such as flooding in familiar places can help make the abstract impacts of climate change more concrete and encourage action. As part of a larger initiative to build a website that projects extreme climate events onto user-chosen photos, we present our solution to simulate photo-realistic floods on authentic images. To address this complex task in the absence of suitable training data, we propose ClimateGAN, a model that leverages both simulated and real data for unsupervised domain adaptation and conditional image generation. In this paper, we describe the details of our framework, thoroughly evaluate components of our architecture and demonstrate that our model is capable of robustly generating photo-realistic flooding.

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

Video world models aim to predict future content from an observed scene while following prescribed camera motion. Real-world scene evolution is determined not only by changes in viewpoint and object dynamics, but also by environmental conditions such as weather, which can substantially alter scene appearance and visibility. Modeling such realistic weather evolution is challenging because the required weather modification depends jointly on the observed and desired weather states. Depending on their relation, the model may need to preserve, introduce, or remove a weather effect. Existing video world models typically leave this weather transition implicit, forcing the generation backbone to infer weather evolution together with scene dynamics and camera motion, which leads to imprecise weather control. To address this limitation, we propose MeteoVerse, a unified weather-controllable video world model that generates future videos from a single sunny or adverse-weather image, conditioned on a weather-free scene description, a target-weather instruction, and a camera trajectory. Rather than conditioning only on the desired weather, MeteoVerse explicitly estimates the observed and target weather states and represents the required weather transition. A transition-aware mixture of weather experts then translates this transition into category-specific residual weather features, unifying weather preservation, introduction, and removal while enabling fine-grained control over introduced weather intensity. We further construct the MeteoVerse dataset with over 50K real-world weather video clips, generated sunny counterparts, disentangled scene and weather descriptions, weather-intensity annotations, and camera trajectories. Extensive experiments demonstrate substantially improved weather controllability while retaining competitive scene consistency and camera-control performance.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets. This restricts usage for under-resourced groups and severely limits fast model iteration. Here we develop Otter Weather, a highly efficient spatiotemporal forecasting model designed to democratise high-performance weather prediction with AI. Evaluated on ERA5 reanalysis data at 1.5° resolution using standard WeatherBench protocols, the Otter family significantly advances the skill-compute Pareto frontier. The deterministic version outperforms the best NWP baseline by 9.6% at a 24-hour lead time while requiring fewer than 3.5 A100-days for training. It provides a 2x efficiency gain over lightweight AI models and a 100-fold reduction in compute compared to resource-intensive frontier architectures. We extend these efficiency gains into probabilistic forecasting by training via the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Scaling to a larger architecture, Otter-XL achieves a 9.7% CRPS improvement over the IFS ENS baseline. This yields an almost two-fold increase in predictive skill over comparable lightweight models at similar compute budgets. Otter-XL also outperforms frontier architectures like GenCast by over 2%, while using an order of magnitude less compute. Finally, Otter is applied out-of-the-box to a complex acoustic scattering PDE task where it outperforms a state-of-the-art foundation modelling approach, suggesting that the advances made here might apply across a range of scientific domains.

Normalizing flow models have been used successfully for generative image super-resolution (SR) by approximating complex distribution of natural images to simple tractable distribution in latent space through Invertible Neural Networks (INN). These models can generate multiple realistic SR images from one low-resolution (LR) input using randomly sampled points in the latent space, simulating the ill-posed nature of image upscaling where multiple high-resolution (HR) images correspond to the same LR. Lately, the invertible process in INN has also been used successfully by bidirectional image rescaling models like IRN and HCFlow for joint optimization of downscaling and inverse upscaling, resulting in significant improvements in upscaled image quality. While they are optimized for image downscaling too, the ill-posed nature of image downscaling, where one HR image could be downsized to multiple LR images depending on different interpolation kernels and resampling methods, is not considered. A new downscaling latent variable, in addition to the original one representing uncertainties in image upscaling, is introduced to model variations in the image downscaling process. This dual latent variable enhancement is applicable to different image rescaling models and it is shown in extensive experiments that it can improve image upscaling accuracy consistently without sacrificing image quality in downscaled LR images. It is also shown to be effective in enhancing other INN-based models for image restoration applications like image hiding.

Weather forecasting models commonly use the average forecast skill for short-range forecasts. However, it does not necessarily imply skill in the tails of the weather distribution. Evaluating tail events requires a consistently defined target with broad spatial and temporal coverage. Disaster catalogs record societal consequences, but are sparse and reporting-dependent; climatological tails describe unusual weather without necessarily implying harm. We present TailWeather, a global 0.25-degree, land-only dataset derived from ERA5, covering 1981-2022 and extending into January 2023. It labels heatwaves, cold waves, heavy precipitation, and extreme wind daily, and meteorological drought monthly. Each event has an ordinal severity tier and a numerical intensity score referenced to the local 1991-2020 climate. The scores support alternative thresholds within their stored resolution and valid domain. Comparison with documented disasters shows greater impact enrichment towards stricter tails, with differences among hazards and substantial gaps in catalog coverage. Forecast examples illustrate how low average errors can coexist with weak event detection, particularly for wind. TailWeather provides a reusable physical target for studying and evaluating extremes, while complementing the information in disaster catalogs.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Earth observation is fundamentally multi-scale; geospatial tasks span varied resolutions, and satellite imagery is organized into cascading tile pyramids that nest fine detail within wide coverage. Current generative models of satellite imagery, however, operate along a single axis: they either zoom to enhance a single tile's resolution or pan to extend imagery at a fixed scale. As a result, no existing method produces a complete pyramid that stays consistent across both scale and space, where a high-zoom tile must agree with the coarse context it refines and with the neighbors it meets. Motivated by this gap, we introduce a new task, multi-scale tile completion: given a sparse set of seed tiles at arbitrary zoom levels and positions, synthesize a complete, uniform quadtree that is globally consistent across both scale and space. We approach this task with Genesis, a generative engine that brings both axes together by composing two specialized operators over the quadtree: a vertical super-resolution model and a horizontal mask-based outpainting model, producing pyramids that are consistent across zoom levels and seamless across neighboring tiles. Each operator achieves state-of-the-art results on its subtask, and the engine propagates sparse seeds into seamless, multi-resolution maps from any initial configuration. To evaluate the task and benchmark Genesis, we introduce dense500, a fully observed multi-scale pyramid dataset spanning diverse geographic regions, together with a suite of pyramid-level metrics. Code, models, and our dataset are available at https://github.com/mvrl/genesis.

This study introduces a novel dataset for segmenting flooded areas in satellite images. After reviewing 77 existing benchmarks utilizing satellite imagery, we identified a shortage of suitable datasets for this specific task. To fill this gap, we collected satellite imagery of the 2019 Midwestern USA floods from Planet Explorer by Planet Labs (Image opyright 2024 Planet Labs PBC). The dataset consists of 10 satellite images per location, each containing both flooded and non-flooded areas. We selected ten locations from each of the five states: Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The dataset ensures uniform resolution and resizing during data processing. For evaluating semantic segmentation performance, we tested state-of-the-art models in computer vision and remote sensing on our dataset. Additionally, we conducted an ablation study varying window sizes to capture temporal characteristics. Overall, the models demonstrated modest results, suggesting a requirement for future multimodal and temporal learning strategies. The dataset will be publicly available on <https://github.com/youngsunjang/SDSU_MidWest_Flood_2019>.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Existing generative models for earth observation (EO) predominantly rely on fine-tuning natural image priors, which limits their scalability and introduces perspective biases that conflict with geospatial constraints. To address this, we introduce GeoCore-9B, a 9-billion-parameter generative foundation model, which is the first of its scale to be trained from scratch exclusively on EO data. Unlike previous EO foundation models, GeoCore-9B is built upon a Flow Matching-based Diffusion Transformer (DiT) and natively conditions generation on text descriptions and continuous geospatial metadata, including ground sample distances, latitudes, and longitudes. To overcome the convergence and spatial disorientation challenges of training at this scale, we propose a Geospatial Semantic Alignment loss. This objective distills structural Earth surface priors (e.g., terrain and urban areas) from a frozen specialist teacher network, constraining the diffusion latent trajectory during training without adding inference overhead. Pre-trained on the global-scale Git-10M dataset, GeoCore-9B demonstrates strong downstream versatility. Beyond standard proxy generative tasks, we show that GeoCore-9B can be effectively adapted for practical EO applications, including highly challenging tasks such as cloud removal and SAR-to-optical cross-modal translation. Extensive evaluations confirm that GeoCore-9B establishes new state-of-the-art performance in both visual fidelity and geographic structural accuracy.

Forecasting weather and climate events is crucial for making appropriate measures to mitigate environmental hazards and minimize losses. However, existing environmental forecasting research focuses narrowly on predicting numerical meteorological variables (e.g., temperature), neglecting the translation of these variables into actionable textual narratives of events and their consequences. To bridge this gap, we proposed Weather and Climate Event Forecasting (WCEF), a new task that leverages numerical meteorological raster data and textual event data to predict weather and climate events. This task is challenging to accomplish due to difficulties in aligning multimodal data and the lack of supervised datasets. To address these challenges, we present CLLMate, the first multimodal dataset for WCEF, using 26,156 environmental news articles aligned with ERA5 reanalysis data. We systematically benchmark 23 existing MLLMs on CLLMate, including closed-source, open-source, and our fine-tuned models. Our experiments reveal the advantages and limitations of existing MLLMs and the value of CLLMate for the training and benchmarking of the WCEF task.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Predicting river flow in places without streamflow records is challenging because basins respond differently to climate, terrain, vegetation, and soils. Traditional basin attributes describe some of these differences, but they cannot fully represent the complexity of natural environments. This study examines whether AlphaEarth Foundation embeddings, which are learned from large collections of satellite images rather than designed by experts, offer a more informative way to describe basin characteristics. These embeddings summarize patterns in vegetation, land surface properties, and long-term environmental dynamics. We find that models using them achieve higher accuracy when predicting flows in basins not used for training, suggesting that they capture key physical differences more effectively than traditional attributes. We further investigate how selecting appropriate donor basins influences prediction in ungauged regions. Similarity based on the embeddings helps identify basins with comparable environmental and hydrological behavior, improving performance, whereas adding many dissimilar basins can reduce accuracy. The results show that satellite-informed environmental representations can strengthen hydrological forecasting and support the development of models that adapt more easily to different landscapes.

In recent years, AI-based weather forecasting models have matched or even outperformed numerical weather prediction systems. However, most of these models have been trained and evaluated on reanalysis datasets like ERA5. These datasets, being products of numerical models, often diverge substantially from actual observations in some crucial variables like near-surface temperature, wind, precipitation and clouds - parameters that hold significant public interest. To address this divergence, we introduce WeatherReal, a novel benchmark dataset for weather forecasting, derived from global near-surface in-situ observations. WeatherReal also features a publicly accessible quality control and evaluation framework. This paper details the sources and processing methodologies underlying the dataset, and further illustrates the advantage of in-situ observations in capturing hyper-local and extreme weather through comparative analyses and case studies. Using WeatherReal, we evaluated several data-driven models and compared them with leading numerical models. Our work aims to advance the AI-based weather forecasting research towards a more application-focused and operation-ready approach.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

The forecast accuracy of machine learning (ML) weather prediction models is improving rapidly, leading many to speak of a "second revolution in weather forecasting". With numerous methods being developed and limited physical guarantees offered by ML models, there is a critical need for a comprehensive evaluation of these emerging techniques. While this need has been partly fulfilled by benchmark datasets, they provide little information on rare and impactful extreme events or on compound impact metrics, for which model accuracy might degrade due to misrepresented dependencies between variables. To address these issues, we compare ML weather prediction models (GraphCast, PanguWeather, and FourCastNet) and ECMWF's high-resolution forecast system (HRES) in three case studies: the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, the 2023 South Asian humid heatwave, and the North American winter storm in 2021. We find that ML weather prediction models locally achieve similar accuracy to HRES on the record-shattering Pacific Northwest heatwave but underperform when aggregated over space and time. However, they forecast the compound winter storm substantially better. We also highlight structural differences in how the errors of HRES and the ML models build up to that event. The ML forecasts lack important variables for a detailed assessment of the health risks of the 2023 humid heatwave. Using a possible substitute variable, prediction errors show spatial patterns with the highest danger levels over Bangladesh being underestimated by the ML models. Generally, case-study-driven, impact-centric evaluation can complement existing research, increase public trust, and aid in developing reliable ML weather prediction models.

In recent years, several efforts have been aimed at improving the robustness of vision models to domains and environments unseen during training. An important practical problem pertains to models deployed in a new geography that is under-represented in the training dataset, posing a direct challenge to fair and inclusive computer vision. In this paper, we study the problem of geographic robustness and make three main contributions. First, we introduce a large-scale dataset GeoNet for geographic adaptation containing benchmarks across diverse tasks like scene recognition (GeoPlaces), image classification (GeoImNet) and universal adaptation (GeoUniDA). Second, we investigate the nature of distribution shifts typical to the problem of geographic adaptation and hypothesize that the major source of domain shifts arise from significant variations in scene context (context shift), object design (design shift) and label distribution (prior shift) across geographies. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of several state-of-the-art unsupervised domain adaptation algorithms and architectures on GeoNet, showing that they do not suffice for geographical adaptation, and that large-scale pre-training using large vision models also does not lead to geographic robustness. Our dataset is publicly available at https://tarun005.github.io/GeoNet.

Language models now constitute essential tools for improving efficiency for many professional tasks such as writing, coding, or learning. For this reason, it is imperative to identify inherent biases. In the field of Natural Language Processing, five sources of bias are well-identified: data, annotation, representation, models, and research design. This study focuses on biases related to geographical knowledge. We explore the connection between geography and language models by highlighting their tendency to misrepresent spatial information, thus leading to distortions in the representation of geographical distances. This study introduces four indicators to assess these distortions, by comparing geographical and semantic distances. Experiments are conducted from these four indicators with ten widely used language models. Results underscore the critical necessity of inspecting and rectifying spatial biases in language models to ensure accurate and equitable representations.

The Sentinel-2 satellite mission delivers multi-spectral imagery with 13 spectral bands, acquired at three different spatial resolutions. The aim of this research is to super-resolve the lower-resolution (20 m and 60 m Ground Sampling Distance - GSD) bands to 10 m GSD, so as to obtain a complete data cube at the maximal sensor resolution. We employ a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network (CNN) to perform end-to-end upsampling, which is trained with data at lower resolution, i.e., from 40->20 m, respectively 360->60 m GSD. In this way, one has access to a virtually infinite amount of training data, by downsampling real Sentinel-2 images. We use data sampled globally over a wide range of geographical locations, to obtain a network that generalises across different climate zones and land-cover types, and can super-resolve arbitrary Sentinel-2 images without the need of retraining. In quantitative evaluations (at lower scale, where ground truth is available), our network, which we call DSen2, outperforms the best competing approach by almost 50% in RMSE, while better preserving the spectral characteristics. It also delivers visually convincing results at the full 10 m GSD. The code is available at https://github.com/lanha/DSen2

We assess the impact of a multi-scale loss formulation for training probabilistic machine-learned weather forecasting models. The multi-scale loss is tested in AIFS-CRPS, a machine-learned weather forecasting model developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). AIFS-CRPS is trained by directly optimising the almost fair continuous ranked probability score (afCRPS). The multi-scale loss better constrains small scale variability without negatively impacting forecast skill. This opens up promising directions for future work in scale-aware model training.

We present WonderZoom, a novel approach to generating 3D scenes with contents across multiple spatial scales from a single image. Existing 3D world generation models remain limited to single-scale synthesis and cannot produce coherent scene contents at varying granularities. The fundamental challenge is the lack of a scale-aware 3D representation capable of generating and rendering content with largely different spatial sizes. WonderZoom addresses this through two key innovations: (1) scale-adaptive Gaussian surfels for generating and real-time rendering of multi-scale 3D scenes, and (2) a progressive detail synthesizer that iteratively generates finer-scale 3D contents. Our approach enables users to "zoom into" a 3D region and auto-regressively synthesize previously non-existent fine details from landscapes to microscopic features. Experiments demonstrate that WonderZoom significantly outperforms state-of-the-art video and 3D models in both quality and alignment, enabling multi-scale 3D world creation from a single image. We show video results and an interactive viewer of generated multi-scale 3D worlds in https://wonderzoom.github.io/

Remotely sensed geospatial data are critical for applications including precision agriculture, urban planning, disaster monitoring and response, and climate change research, among others. Deep learning methods are particularly promising for modeling many remote sensing tasks given the success of deep neural networks in similar computer vision tasks and the sheer volume of remotely sensed imagery available. However, the variance in data collection methods and handling of geospatial metadata make the application of deep learning methodology to remotely sensed data nontrivial. For example, satellite imagery often includes additional spectral bands beyond red, green, and blue and must be joined to other geospatial data sources that can have differing coordinate systems, bounds, and resolutions. To help realize the potential of deep learning for remote sensing applications, we introduce TorchGeo, a Python library for integrating geospatial data into the PyTorch deep learning ecosystem. TorchGeo provides data loaders for a variety of benchmark datasets, composable datasets for generic geospatial data sources, samplers for geospatial data, and transforms that work with multispectral imagery. TorchGeo is also the first library to provide pre-trained models for multispectral satellite imagery (e.g., models that use all bands from the Sentinel-2 satellites), allowing for advances in transfer learning on downstream remote sensing tasks with limited labeled data. We use TorchGeo to create reproducible benchmark results on existing datasets and benchmark our proposed method for preprocessing geospatial imagery on the fly. TorchGeo is open source and available on GitHub: https://github.com/microsoft/torchgeo.

Accurate and up-to-date land cover maps are essential for understanding land use change, a key driver of climate change. Geospatial embeddings offer a more efficient and accessible way to map landscape features, yet their use in real-world mapping applications remains underexplored. In this work, we evaluated the utility of geospatial embeddings for cropland mapping in Togo. We produced cropland maps using embeddings from Presto and AlphaEarth. Our findings show that geospatial embeddings can simplify workflows, achieve high-accuracy cropland classification and ultimately support better assessments of land use change and its climate impacts.

Here, we describe Monthly Diffusion at 1.5-degree grid spacing (MD-1.5 version 0.9), a climate emulator that leverages a spherical Fourier neural operator (SFNO)-inspired Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) architecture to model the evolution of low-frequency internal atmospheric variability using latent diffusion. MDv0.9 was designed to forward-step at monthly mean timesteps in a data-sparse regime, using modest computational requirements. This work describes the motivation behind the architecture design, the MDv0.9 training procedure, and initial results.

We present Varda-single-1.0, a medium-range data-driven weather prediction system built for the Alpine domain. It provides hourly deterministic regional forecasts on a mesh of 1 km resolution and global forecasts on a 31 km mesh. The system comprises two independently trained stretched-grid Graph Transformer models with encoder-processor-decoder architecture, developed in the Anemoi framework: a 6-hourly autoregressive forecaster and a temporal downscaler reconstructing hourly forecasts between the forecaster's steps. Its training curriculum includes pre-training on ERA5 reanalysis data, followed by training on a 20-year kilometre-scale regional reanalysis, and finally fine-tuning on operational kilometre-scale analyses. Verified over one year against operational analyses and surface station observations, Varda-single is competitive with or improves on MeteoSwiss' operational numerical weather prediction baselines for most headline scores and variables. It broadly matches the skill of the high-resolution 1 km ICON-CH1-EPS control at lead times up to +33 h and generally outperforms the 2 km ICON-CH2-EPS control at lead times up to +120 h. Despite competitive aggregate scores, Varda-single underestimates some local wind maxima and produces overly smooth convective precipitation fields, consistent with the smoothing associated with squared-error training. To gain insight into the model's behaviour, we investigate three case studies beyond the aggregated headline scores, and find particular weaknesses in Varda-single's representation of local winds over complex terrain. Varda-single represents an important step in the development of high-resolution ML forecasting over complex terrain, in complementing the operational regional numerical weather prediction models of MeteoSwiss with data-driven models and in providing a pretrained model for researchers and user-specific applications.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

Combining satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML) has the potential to address global challenges by remotely estimating socioeconomic and environmental conditions in data-poor regions, yet the resource requirements of SIML limit its accessibility and use. We show that a single encoding of satellite imagery can generalize across diverse prediction tasks (e.g. forest cover, house price, road length). Our method achieves accuracy competitive with deep neural networks at orders of magnitude lower computational cost, scales globally, delivers label super-resolution predictions, and facilitates characterizations of uncertainty. Since image encodings are shared across tasks, they can be centrally computed and distributed to unlimited researchers, who need only fit a linear regression to their own ground truth data in order to achieve state-of-the-art SIML performance.

Transformer-based image restoration methods in adverse weather have achieved significant progress. Most of them use self-attention along the channel dimension or within spatially fixed-range blocks to reduce computational load. However, such a compromise results in limitations in capturing long-range spatial features. Inspired by the observation that the weather-induced degradation factors mainly cause similar occlusion and brightness, in this work, we propose an efficient Histogram Transformer (Histoformer) for restoring images affected by adverse weather. It is powered by a mechanism dubbed histogram self-attention, which sorts and segments spatial features into intensity-based bins. Self-attention is then applied across bins or within each bin to selectively focus on spatial features of dynamic range and process similar degraded pixels of the long range together. To boost histogram self-attention, we present a dynamic-range convolution enabling conventional convolution to conduct operation over similar pixels rather than neighbor pixels. We also observe that the common pixel-wise losses neglect linear association and correlation between output and ground-truth. Thus, we propose to leverage the Pearson correlation coefficient as a loss function to enforce the recovered pixels following the identical order as ground-truth. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy and superiority of our proposed method. We have released the codes in Github.

Interpreting Earth system conditions is central to understanding environmental risks and informing decisions across weather- and climate-sensitive sectors. Existing multimodal weather systems primarily target task-specific prediction, generation, or question answering, while general-purpose alignment between Earth system data and language remains underexplored due to the limited availability of diverse language supervision grounded in meteorological conditions. To fill this gap, we introduce EarthAlign, a large-scale dataset with broad geographic coverage spanning 2000-2024 that combines 10 expert-curated natural event and disaster data sources with climatology-derived normal-weather samples. Each sample includes temporal and geospatial information and four grounded caption styles aligned with 63-variable ERA5 meteorological data. Building on EarthAlign, we introduce MeteoLIP, a dual-encoder framework for learning aligned meteorology-language representations. MeteoLIP incorporates MetTok, which uses a geolocation- and time-conditioned query to aggregate variable-specific patch embeddings into a compact sequence of meteorology tokens. To comprehensively assess Earth system multimodal representations, we introduce three downstream tasks: cross-modal retrieval, weather-condition classification, and physical variable estimation. Our experiments show that MeteoLIP improves upon the corresponding CLIP and SigLIP baselines across these tasks. Further analyses highlight the importance of meteorological input, temporal and geospatial conditioning, and multi-style supervision for meteorology-language alignment. Thus, EarthAlign and MeteoLIP provide a foundation for learning and evaluating language-aligned representations of Earth system data. Our code, dataset, and weights are publicly available at https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/EarthAlign.

Directly generating scenes from satellite imagery offers exciting possibilities for integration into applications like games and map services. However, challenges arise from significant view changes and scene scale. Previous efforts mainly focused on image or video generation, lacking exploration into the adaptability of scene generation for arbitrary views. Existing 3D generation works either operate at the object level or are difficult to utilize the geometry obtained from satellite imagery. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel architecture for direct 3D scene generation by introducing diffusion models into 3D sparse representations and combining them with neural rendering techniques. Specifically, our approach generates texture colors at the point level for a given geometry using a 3D diffusion model first, which is then transformed into a scene representation in a feed-forward manner. The representation can be utilized to render arbitrary views which would excel in both single-frame quality and inter-frame consistency. Experiments in two city-scale datasets show that our model demonstrates proficiency in generating photo-realistic street-view image sequences and cross-view urban scenes from satellite imagery.

High-resolution imagery is often hindered by limitations in sensor technology, atmospheric conditions, and costs. Such challenges occur in satellite remote sensing, but also with handheld cameras, such as our smartphones. Hence, super-resolution aims to enhance the image resolution algorithmically. Since single-image super-resolution requires solving an inverse problem, such methods must exploit strong priors, e.g. learned from high-resolution training data, or be constrained by auxiliary data, e.g. by a high-resolution guide from another modality. While qualitatively pleasing, such approaches often lead to "hallucinated" structures that do not match reality. In contrast, multi-image super-resolution (MISR) aims to improve the (optical) resolution by constraining the super-resolution process with multiple views taken with sub-pixel shifts. Here, we propose SuperF, a test-time optimization approach for MISR that leverages coordinate-based neural networks, also called neural fields. Their ability to represent continuous signals with an implicit neural representation (INR) makes them an ideal fit for the MISR task. The key characteristic of our approach is to share an INR for multiple shifted low-resolution frames and to jointly optimize the frame alignment with the INR. Our approach advances related INR baselines, adopted from burst fusion for layer separation, by directly parameterizing the sub-pixel alignment as optimizable affine transformation parameters and by optimizing via a super-sampled coordinate grid that corresponds to the output resolution. Our experiments yield compelling results on simulated bursts of satellite imagery and ground-level images from handheld cameras, with upsampling factors of up to 8. A key advantage of SuperF is that this approach does not rely on any high-resolution training data.

Geospatial Foundation Models (GeoFMs) are transforming Earth Observation (EO), but evaluation lacks standardized protocols. GEO-Bench-2 addresses this with a comprehensive framework spanning classification, segmentation, regression, object detection, and instance segmentation across 19 permissively-licensed datasets. We introduce ''capability'' groups to rank models on datasets that share common characteristics (e.g., resolution, bands, temporality). This enables users to identify which models excel in each capability and determine which areas need improvement in future work. To support both fair comparison and methodological innovation, we define a prescriptive yet flexible evaluation protocol. This not only ensures consistency in benchmarking but also facilitates research into model adaptation strategies, a key and open challenge in advancing GeoFMs for downstream tasks. Our experiments show that no single model dominates across all tasks, confirming the specificity of the choices made during architecture design and pretraining. While models pretrained on natural images (ConvNext ImageNet, DINO V3) excel on high-resolution tasks, EO-specific models (TerraMind, Prithvi, and Clay) outperform them on multispectral applications such as agriculture and disaster response. These findings demonstrate that optimal model choice depends on task requirements, data modalities, and constraints. This shows that the goal of a single GeoFM model that performs well across all tasks remains open for future research. GEO-Bench-2 enables informed, reproducible GeoFM evaluation tailored to specific use cases. Code, data, and leaderboard for GEO-Bench-2 are publicly released under a permissive license.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.