Daily Papers

Neural network-based visuomotor policies enable robots to perform manipulation tasks but remain susceptible to perceptual attacks. For example, conventional 2D adversarial patches are effective under fixed-camera setups, where appearance is relatively consistent; however, their efficacy often diminishes under dynamic viewpoints from moving cameras, such as wrist-mounted setups, due to perspective distortions. To proactively investigate potential vulnerabilities beyond 2D patches, this work proposes a viewpoint-consistent adversarial texture optimization method for 3D objects through differentiable rendering. As optimization strategies, we employ Expectation over Transformation (EOT) with a Coarse-to-Fine (C2F) curriculum, exploiting distance-dependent frequency characteristics to induce textures effective across varying camera-object distances. We further integrate saliency-guided perturbations to redirect policy attention and design a targeted loss that persistently drives robots toward adversarial objects. Our comprehensive experiments show that the proposed method is effective under various environmental conditions, while confirming its black-box transferability and real-world applicability.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has gained increasing attention in studying Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). It uses a sparse model to replace the dense model, achieving comparable performance while activating fewer parameters during inference, thus significantly reducing the inference cost. Existing MoE methods in LVLMs encourage different experts to handle different tokens, and they usually employ a router to predict the routing of each token. However, the predictions are based solely on sample features and do not truly reveal the optimization directions of tokens. This may lead to severe optimization interference between different tokens assigned to an expert. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel method based on token-level gradient analysis, i.e., Solving Token Gradient Conflict (STGC). Specifically, we first use token-level gradients to identify conflicting tokens in experts. After that, we add a specialized loss tailored to eliminate conflicts among tokens within each expert. Our method can serve as a plug-in for diverse Large Vision-Language Models, and extensive experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness. The code will be publicly available at https://github.com/longrongyang/STGC.

Camera pipelines receive raw Bayer-format frames that need to be denoised, demosaiced, and often super-resolved. Multiple frames are captured to utilize natural hand tremors and enhance resolution. Multi-frame super-resolution is therefore a fundamental problem in camera pipelines. Existing adversarial methods are constrained by the quality of ground truth. We propose GenMFSR, the first Generative Multi-Frame Raw-to-RGB Super Resolution pipeline, that incorporates image priors from foundation models to obtain sub-pixel information for camera ISP applications. GenMFSR can align multiple raw frames, unlike existing single-frame super-resolution methods, and we propose a loss term that restricts generation to high-frequency regions in the raw domain, thus preventing low-frequency artifacts.

Inspired by human driving focus, this research pioneers networks augmented with Focusing Sampling, Partial Field of View Evaluation, Enhanced FPN architecture and Directional IoU Loss - targeted innovations addressing obstacles to precise lane detection for autonomous driving. Experiments demonstrate our Focusing Sampling strategy, emphasizing vital distant details unlike uniform approaches, significantly boosts both benchmark and practical curved/distant lane recognition accuracy essential for safety. While FENetV1 achieves state-of-the-art conventional metric performance via enhancements isolating perspective-aware contexts mimicking driver vision, FENetV2 proves most reliable on the proposed Partial Field analysis. Hence we specifically recommend V2 for practical lane navigation despite fractional degradation on standard entire-image measures. Future directions include collecting on-road data and integrating complementary dual frameworks to further breakthroughs guided by human perception principles. The Code is available at https://github.com/HanyangZhong/FENet.

Large pre-trained language models achieve impressive results across many tasks. However, recent works point out that pre-trained language models may memorize a considerable fraction of their training data, leading to the privacy risk of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a method named Ethicist for targeted training data extraction through loss smoothed soft prompting and calibrated confidence estimation, investigating how to recover the suffix in the training data when given a prefix. To elicit memorization in the attacked model, we tune soft prompt embeddings while keeping the model fixed. We further propose a smoothing loss that smooths the loss distribution of the suffix tokens to make it easier to sample the correct suffix. In order to select the most probable suffix from a collection of sampled suffixes and estimate the prediction confidence, we propose a calibrated confidence estimation method, which normalizes the confidence of the generated suffixes with a local estimation. We show that Ethicist significantly improves the extraction performance on a recently proposed public benchmark. We also investigate several factors influencing the data extraction performance, including decoding strategy, model scale, prefix length, and suffix length. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-coai/Targeted-Data-Extraction.

Selecting high-quality data for pre-training is crucial in shaping the downstream task performance of language models. A major challenge lies in identifying this optimal subset, a problem generally considered intractable, thus necessitating scalable and effective heuristics. In this work, we propose a data selection method, CoLoR-Filter (Conditional Loss Reduction Filtering), which leverages an empirical Bayes-inspired approach to derive a simple and computationally efficient selection criterion based on the relative loss values of two auxiliary models. In addition to the modeling rationale, we evaluate CoLoR-Filter empirically on two language modeling tasks: (1) selecting data from C4 for domain adaptation to evaluation on Books and (2) selecting data from C4 for a suite of downstream multiple-choice question answering tasks. We demonstrate favorable scaling both as we subselect more aggressively and using small auxiliary models to select data for large target models. As one headline result, CoLoR-Filter data selected using a pair of 150m parameter auxiliary models can train a 1.2b parameter target model to match a 1.2b parameter model trained on 25b randomly selected tokens with 25x less data for Books and 11x less data for the downstream tasks. Code: https://github.com/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filter-olmo Filtered data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filtered-c4

As the era of connectivity and unprecedented data generation expands, collaborative intelligence emerges as a key driver for machine learning, encouraging global-scale model development. Federated learning (FL) stands at the heart of this transformation, enabling distributed systems to work collectively on complex tasks while respecting strict constraints on privacy and security. Despite its vast potential, specially in the age of complex models, FL encounters challenges such as elevated communication costs, computational constraints, and the heterogeneous data distributions. In this context, we present AutoFLIP, a novel framework that optimizes FL through an adaptive hybrid pruning approach, grounded in a federated loss exploration phase. By jointly analyzing diverse non-IID client loss landscapes, AutoFLIP efficiently identifies model substructures for pruning both at structured and unstructured levels. This targeted optimization fosters a symbiotic intelligence loop, reducing computational burdens and boosting model performance on resource-limited devices for a more inclusive and democratized model usage. Our extensive experiments across multiple datasets and FL tasks show that AutoFLIP delivers quantifiable benefits: a 48.8% reduction in computational overhead, a 35.5% decrease in communication costs, and a notable improvement in global accuracy. By significantly reducing these overheads, AutoFLIP offer the way for efficient FL deployment in real-world applications for a scalable and broad applicability.

Despite advances in Large Multi-modal Models, applying them to long and untrimmed video content remains challenging due to limitations in context length and substantial memory overhead. These constraints often lead to significant information loss and reduced relevance in the model responses. With the exponential growth of video data across web platforms, understanding long-form video is crucial for advancing generalized intelligence. In this paper, we introduce SALOVA: Segment-Augmented LOng Video Assistant, a novel video-LLM framework designed to enhance the comprehension of lengthy video content through targeted retrieval process. We address two main challenges to achieve it: (i) We present the SceneWalk dataset, a high-quality collection of 87.8K long videos, each densely captioned at the segment level to enable models to capture scene continuity and maintain rich descriptive context. (ii) We develop robust architectural designs integrating dynamic routing mechanism and spatio-temporal projector to efficiently retrieve and process relevant video segments based on user queries. Our framework mitigates the limitations of current video-LMMs by allowing for precise identification and retrieval of relevant video segments in response to queries, thereby improving the contextual relevance of the generated responses. Through extensive experiments, SALOVA demonstrates enhanced capability in processing complex long-form videos, showing significant capability to maintain contextual integrity across extended sequences.

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) systems are used in various applications. However, it has been shown that they are vulnerable to very small perturbations of their inputs, known as adversarial attacks. In this paper, we propose a new targeted adversarial attack against NMT models. In particular, our goal is to insert a predefined target keyword into the translation of the adversarial sentence while maintaining similarity between the original sentence and the perturbed one in the source domain. To this aim, we propose an optimization problem, including an adversarial loss term and a similarity term. We use gradient projection in the embedding space to craft an adversarial sentence. Experimental results show that our attack outperforms Seq2Sick, the other targeted adversarial attack against NMT models, in terms of success rate and decrease in translation quality. Our attack succeeds in inserting a keyword into the translation for more than 75% of sentences while similarity with the original sentence stays preserved.

Audio-conditioned language models often underuse acoustic cues such as prosody, emotion, and non-speech sounds, raising the question of whether ASR-supervised frontends discard this information before it reaches the LM. We test whether the frontend is responsible by comparing Whisper-Tiny and Whisper-Small with EnCodec, DAC-VAE, and WavTokenizer in a shared Qwen3.5-4B audio-LM pipeline on ASR, emotion recognition, and sound captioning. Encoder replacement alone does not resolve this underuse: Whisper variants remain strongest overall, including on emotion and environmental sound captioning. To localize the failure, we trace task-relevant information through the encoder, projector, LM layers, and LM head. Linear probes and geometric analyses show that discriminative acoustic structure remains recoverable at the final LM layer, even when MCQA accuracy trails probe accuracy by up to 83 points. Because the answer format and decoding procedure are controlled, this task-dependent gap points to content-specific readout failure rather than generic format bias. LogitLens analyses and a targeted LM head intervention support the conclusion that acoustic underuse is not explained solely by encoder-side information loss and that readout alignment can be a dominant bottleneck.

We introduce VoiceFilter-Lite, a single-channel source separation model that runs on the device to preserve only the speech signals from a target user, as part of a streaming speech recognition system. Delivering such a model presents numerous challenges: It should improve the performance when the input signal consists of overlapped speech, and must not hurt the speech recognition performance under all other acoustic conditions. Besides, this model must be tiny, fast, and perform inference in a streaming fashion, in order to have minimal impact on CPU, memory, battery and latency. We propose novel techniques to meet these multi-faceted requirements, including using a new asymmetric loss, and adopting adaptive runtime suppression strength. We also show that such a model can be quantized as a 8-bit integer model and run in realtime.

This work aims to understand how scaling improves language models, specifically in terms of training dynamics. We find that language models undergo loss deceleration early in training; an abrupt slowdown in the rate of loss improvement, resulting in piecewise linear behaviour of the loss curve in log-log space. Scaling up the model mitigates this transition by (1) decreasing the loss at which deceleration occurs, and (2) improving the log-log rate of loss improvement after deceleration. We attribute loss deceleration to a type of degenerate training dynamics we term zero-sum learning (ZSL). In ZSL, per-example gradients become systematically opposed, leading to destructive interference in per-example changes in loss. As a result, improving loss on one subset of examples degrades it on another, bottlenecking overall progress. Loss deceleration and ZSL provide new insights into the training dynamics underlying language model scaling laws, and could potentially be targeted directly to improve language models independent of scale. We make our code and artefacts available at: https://github.com/mirandrom/zsl

Text embedding models are widely used for semantic similarity tasks, including information retrieval, clustering, and classification. General-purpose models are typically trained with single- or multi-stage processes using contrastive loss functions. We introduce a novel training regimen that combines model distillation techniques with task-specific contrastive loss to produce compact, high-performance embedding models. Our findings suggest that this approach is more effective for training small models than purely contrastive or distillation-based training paradigms alone. Benchmark scores for the resulting models, jina-embeddings-v5-text-small and jina-embeddings-v5-text-nano, exceed or match the state-of-the-art for models of similar size. jina-embeddings-v5-text models additionally support long texts (up to 32k tokens) in many languages, and generate embeddings that remain robust under truncation and binary quantization. Model weights are publicly available, hopefully inspiring further advances in embedding model development.

We characterize how memorization is represented in transformer models and show that it can be disentangled in the weights of both language models (LMs) and vision transformers (ViTs) using a decomposition based on the loss landscape curvature. This insight is based on prior theoretical and empirical work showing that the curvature for memorized training points is much sharper than non memorized, meaning ordering weight components from high to low curvature can reveal a distinction without explicit labels. This motivates a weight editing procedure that suppresses far more recitation of untargeted memorized data more effectively than a recent unlearning method (BalancedSubnet), while maintaining lower perplexity. Since the basis of curvature has a natural interpretation for shared structure in model weights, we analyze the editing procedure extensively on its effect on downstream tasks in LMs, and find that fact retrieval and arithmetic are specifically and consistently negatively affected, even though open book fact retrieval and general logical reasoning is conserved. We posit these tasks rely heavily on specialized directions in weight space rather than general purpose mechanisms, regardless of whether those individual datapoints are memorized. We support this by showing a correspondence between task data's activation strength with low curvature components that we edit out, and the drop in task performance after the edit. Our work enhances the understanding of memorization in neural networks with practical applications towards removing it, and provides evidence for idiosyncratic, narrowly-used structures involved in solving tasks like math and fact retrieval.

Smart contracts on blockchains are prone to diverse security vulnerabilities that can lead to significant financial losses due to their immutable nature. Existing detection approaches often lack flexibility across vulnerability types and rely heavily on manually crafted expert rules. In this paper, we present an LLM-based framework for practical smart contract vulnerability detection. We construct and release a large-scale dataset comprising 31,165 professionally annotated vulnerability instances collected from over 3,200 real-world projects across 15 major blockchain platforms. Our approach leverages precise AST-based context extraction and vulnerability-specific prompt design to instantiate customized detectors for 13 prevalent vulnerability categories. Experimental results demonstrate strong effectiveness, achieving an average positive recall of 0.92 and an average negative recall of 0.85, highlighting the potential of carefully engineered contextual prompting for scalable and high-precision smart contract security analysis.

Adapting pretrained language models (LMs) into vision-language models (VLMs) can degrade their native linguistic capability due to representation shift and cross-modal interference introduced during multimodal adaptation. Such loss is difficult to recover, even with targeted task-specific fine-tuning using standard objectives. Prior recovery approaches typically introduce additional modules that act as intermediate alignment layers to maintain or isolate modality-specific subspaces, which increases architectural complexity, adds parameters at inference time, and limits flexibility across models and settings. We propose LinguDistill, an adapter-free distillation method that restores linguistic capability by utilizing the original frozen LM as a teacher. We overcome the key challenge of enabling vision-conditioned teacher supervision by introducing layer-wise KV-cache sharing, which exposes the teacher to the student's multimodal representations without modifying the architecture of either model. We then selectively distill the teacher's strong linguistic signal on language-intensive data to recover language capability, while preserving the student's visual grounding on multimodal tasks. As a result, LinguDistill recovers sim10% of the performance lost on language and knowledge benchmarks, while maintaining comparable performance on vision-heavy tasks. Our findings demonstrate that linguistic capability can be recovered without additional modules, providing an efficient and practical solution to modality-specific degradation in multimodal models.

Weakly-supervised video anomaly detection (WS-VAD) using Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) suffers from label ambiguity, hindering discriminative feature learning. We propose ProDisc-VAD, an efficient framework tackling this via two synergistic components. The Prototype Interaction Layer (PIL) provides controlled normality modeling using a small set of learnable prototypes, establishing a robust baseline without being overwhelmed by dominant normal data. The Pseudo-Instance Discriminative Enhancement (PIDE) loss boosts separability by applying targeted contrastive learning exclusively to the most reliable extreme-scoring instances (highest/lowest scores). ProDisc-VAD achieves strong AUCs (97.98% ShanghaiTech, 87.12% UCF-Crime) using only 0.4M parameters, over 800x fewer than recent ViT-based methods like VadCLIP. Code is available at https://github.com/modadundun/ProDisc-VAD.

Large Language Models (LLMs), pre-trained on massive text corpora, exhibit remarkable human-level language understanding, reasoning, and decision-making abilities. However, they tend to memorize unwanted information, such as private or copyrighted content, raising significant privacy and legal concerns. Unlearning has emerged as a promising solution, but existing methods face a significant challenge of over-forgetting. This issue arises because they indiscriminately suppress the generation of all the tokens in forget samples, leading to a substantial loss of model utility. To overcome this challenge, we introduce the Targeted Information Forgetting (TIF) framework, which consists of (1) a flexible targeted information identifier designed to differentiate between unwanted words (UW) and general words (GW) in the forget samples, and (2) a novel Targeted Preference Optimization approach that leverages Logit Preference Loss to unlearn unwanted information associated with UW and Preservation Loss to retain general information in GW, effectively improving the unlearning process while mitigating utility degradation. Extensive experiments on the TOFU and MUSE benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed TIF framework enhances unlearning effectiveness while preserving model utility and achieving state-of-the-art results.

Recent advancements in large language model (LLM) unlearning have shown remarkable success in removing unwanted data-model influences while preserving the model's utility for legitimate knowledge. However, despite these strides, sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) LLMs--a key subset of the LLM family--have received little attention and remain largely unexplored in the context of unlearning. As MoE LLMs are celebrated for their exceptional performance and highly efficient inference processes, we ask: How can unlearning be performed effectively and efficiently on MoE LLMs? And will traditional unlearning methods be applicable to MoE architectures? Our pilot study shows that the dynamic routing nature of MoE LLMs introduces unique challenges, leading to substantial utility drops when existing unlearning methods are applied. Specifically, unlearning disrupts the router's expert selection, causing significant selection shift from the most unlearning target-related experts to irrelevant ones. As a result, more experts than necessary are affected, leading to excessive forgetting and loss of control over which knowledge is erased. To address this, we propose a novel single-expert unlearning framework, referred to as UOE, for MoE LLMs. Through expert attribution, unlearning is concentrated on the most actively engaged expert for the specified knowledge. Concurrently, an anchor loss is applied to the router to stabilize the active state of this targeted expert, ensuring focused and controlled unlearning that preserves model utility. The proposed UOE framework is also compatible with various unlearning algorithms. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UOE enhances both forget quality up to 5% and model utility by 35% on MoE LLMs across various benchmarks, LLM architectures, while only unlearning 0.06% of the model parameters.

A targeted adversarial perturbation can drive a vision-language model's (VLM's) teacher-forced training loss for a fixed target caption to near zero, yet the same model, allowed to generate freely, produces the original, correct description with no trace of the target. We call this dissociation the train/inference gap, and give it a precise mechanistic account on Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct using a controlled two-stage PGD attack on 200 held-out COCO images. First, we show that image-level pixel statistics, including a correctly re-implemented, texture-based attackability measure from the CNN robustness literature, have essentially no predictive power over which images are corrupted (best predictor r=-0.050, p=0.484; ridge regression R^2=0.069). Second, using the logit lens, we localise the gap to a single autoregressive step: the rank of the target token, conditioned on the correct first token already being generated, is fixed at exactly 3,488 out of 152,064 vocabulary entries for every image and every condition, with zero variance. Third, tracking target-token rank across all 28 LLM decoder layers reveals that the visual encoder corrupts every image's representation by a comparable margin regardless of eventual outcome, but the language model decoder then differentially arbitrates: amplifying the corrupted signal for susceptible images and actively suppressing it, past its clean-image baseline, for resistant ones (p<0.001, rank-biserial r=0.579). A linear probe on the merger hidden state separates these two outcomes with AUC=0.858, though we flag a circularity concern in this estimate. Together these results argue that adversarial robustness in autoregressive VLMs is substantially a property of the language decoder's prior, not the visual encoder, with direct implications for where faithfulness evaluations and defenses for deployed VLM systems should be targeted.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agentic systems rely on in-context policy documents encoding diverse business rules. As requirements grow, these documents expand rapidly, causing high computational overhead. This motivates developing internalization methods that embed policy documents into model priors while preserving performance. Prior prompt compression work targets generic prompts, but agentic policy documents span multiple complexity levels and require deeper reasoning, making internalization harder. We introduce CC-Gen, an agentic benchmark generator with Controllable Complexity across four levels, enabling systematic evaluation of agents' ability to handle complexity and offering a unified framework for assessing policy internalization. Our analysis shows that complex policy specifications governing workflows pose major reasoning challenges. Supporting internalization with gold user agent interaction trajectories containing chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is data-intensive and degrades sharply as policy complexity increases. To mitigate data and reasoning burdens, we propose Category-Aware Policy Continued Pretraining (CAP-CPT). Our automated pipeline parses policy documents to extract key specifications, grouping them into factual, behavioral, and conditional categories, and isolating complex conditions that drive workflow complexity. This guides targeted data synthesis and enables agents to internalize policy information through an autoregressive pretraining loss. Experiments show CAP-CPT improves SFT baselines in all settings, with up to 41% and 22% gains on Qwen-3-32B, achieving 97.3% prompt length reduction on CC-Gen and further enhancing tau-Bench with minimal SFT data.

Building Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems for code-switched speech has recently gained renewed attention due to the widespread use of speech technologies in multilingual communities worldwide. End-to-end ASR systems are a natural modeling choice due to their ease of use and superior performance in monolingual settings. However, it is well known that end-to-end systems require large amounts of labeled speech. In this work, we investigate improving code-switched ASR in low resource settings via data augmentation using code-switched text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. We propose two targeted techniques to effectively leverage TTS speech samples: 1) Mixup, an existing technique to create new training samples via linear interpolation of existing samples, applied to TTS and real speech samples, and 2) a new loss function, used in conjunction with TTS samples, to encourage code-switched predictions. We report significant improvements in ASR performance achieving absolute word error rate (WER) reductions of up to 5%, and measurable improvement in code switching using our proposed techniques on a Hindi-English code-switched ASR task.

Recent advancements in diffusion models revolutionize image generation but pose risks of misuse, such as replicating artworks or generating deepfakes. Existing image protection methods, though effective, struggle to balance protection efficacy, invisibility, and latency, thus limiting practical use. We introduce perturbation pre-training to reduce latency and propose a mixture-of-perturbations approach that dynamically adapts to input images to minimize performance degradation. Our novel training strategy computes protection loss across multiple VAE feature spaces, while adaptive targeted protection at inference enhances robustness and invisibility. Experiments show comparable protection performance with improved invisibility and drastically reduced inference time. The code and demo are available at https://webtoon.github.io/impasto

Recent Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) with thinking traces have shown strong performance on English reasoning tasks. However, their ability to think in other languages is less studied. This capability is as important as answer accuracy for real world applications because users may find the reasoning trace useful for oversight only when it is expressed in their own language. We comprehensively evaluate two leading families of LRMs on our XReasoning benchmark and find that even the most advanced models often revert to English or produce fragmented reasoning in other languages, revealing a substantial gap in multilingual reasoning. Prompt based interventions that force models to reason in the users language improve readability and oversight but reduce answer accuracy, exposing an important trade off. We further show that targeted post training on just 100 examples mitigates this mismatch, though some accuracy loss remains. Our results highlight the limited multilingual reasoning capabilities of current LRMs and outline directions for future work. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Betswish/mCoT-XReasoning.

Blockchains are diverse in the way they handle communications between their nodes to disseminate information, mitigate attacks, and agree on the next block. While security vulnerabilities have been identified, they rely on an attack custom-made for a specific blockchain communication protocol. To our knowledge, the vulnerabilities of multiple blockchain communication protocols to adversarial conditions have never been compared. In this paper, we compare empirically the vulnerabilities of the communication protocols of five modern in-production blockchains, Algorand, Aptos, Avalanche, Redbelly and Solana, when attacked in five different ways. We conclude that Algorand is vulnerable to packet loss attacks, Aptos is vulnerable to targeted load attacks and leader isolation attacks, Avalanche is vulnerable to transient failure attacks, Redbelly's performance is impacted by packet loss attacks and Solana is vulnerable to stopping attacks and leader isolation attacks. Our system is open source.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities but also pose risks by learning and generating copyrighted material, leading to significant legal and ethical concerns. In real-world scenarios, model owners need to continuously address copyright infringement as new requests for content removal emerge at different time points. This leads to the need for sequential unlearning, where copyrighted content is removed sequentially as new requests arise. Despite its practical relevance, sequential unlearning in the context of copyright infringement has not been rigorously explored in existing literature. To address this gap, we propose Stable Sequential Unlearning (SSU), a novel framework designed to unlearn copyrighted content from LLMs over multiple time steps. Our approach works by identifying and removing specific weight updates in the model's parameters that correspond to copyrighted content. We improve unlearning efficacy by introducing random labeling loss and ensuring the model retains its general-purpose knowledge by adjusting targeted parameters. Experimental results show that SSU achieves an effective trade-off between unlearning efficacy and general-purpose language abilities, outperforming existing baselines.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities but also pose risks by learning and generating copyrighted material, leading to significant legal and ethical concerns. In a potential real-world scenario, model owners may need to continuously address copyright infringement in order to address requests for content removal that emerge at different time points. One potential way of addressing this is via sequential unlearning, where copyrighted content is removed sequentially as new requests arise. Despite its practical relevance, sequential unlearning in the context of copyright infringement has not been rigorously explored in existing literature. To address this gap, we propose Stable Sequential Unlearning (SSU), a novel framework designed to unlearn copyrighted content from LLMs over multiple time steps. Our approach works by identifying and removing specific weight updates in the model's parameters that correspond to copyrighted content using task vectors. We improve unlearning efficacy by introducing random labeling loss and ensuring the model retains its general-purpose knowledge by adjusting targeted parameters with gradient-based weight saliency. Extensive experimental results show that SSU sometimes achieves an effective trade-off between unlearning efficacy and general-purpose language abilities, outperforming existing baselines, but it's not a cure-all for unlearning copyrighted material.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) typically learn visual capacity through visual instruction tuning, involving updates to both a projector and their LLM backbones. Drawing inspiration from the concept of visual region in the human brain, we investigate the existence of an analogous visual region within LLMs that functions as a cognitive core, and explore the possibility of efficient training of LVLMs via selective layers tuning. We use Bunny-Llama-3-8B-V for detailed experiments and LLaVA-1.5-7B and LLaVA-1.5-13B for validation across a range of visual and textual tasks. Our findings reveal that selectively updating 25\% of LLMs layers, when sparsely and uniformly distributed, can preserve nearly 99\% of visual performance while maintaining or enhancing textual task results, and also effectively reducing training time. Based on this targeted training approach, we further propose a novel visual region-based pruning paradigm, removing non-critical layers outside the visual region, which can achieve minimal performance loss. This study offers an effective and efficient strategy for LVLM training and inference by activating a layer-wise visual region within LLMs, which is consistently effective across different models and parameter scales.

Large language models (LLMs) can often be made to behave in undesirable ways that they are explicitly fine-tuned not to. For example, the LLM red-teaming literature has produced a wide variety of 'jailbreaking' techniques to elicit harmful text from models that were fine-tuned to be harmless. Recent work on red-teaming, model editing, and interpretability suggests that this challenge stems from how (adversarial) fine-tuning largely serves to suppress rather than remove undesirable capabilities from LLMs. Prior work has introduced latent adversarial training (LAT) as a way to improve robustness to broad classes of failures. These prior works have considered untargeted latent space attacks where the adversary perturbs latent activations to maximize loss on examples of desirable behavior. Untargeted LAT can provide a generic type of robustness but does not leverage information about specific failure modes. Here, we experiment with targeted LAT where the adversary seeks to minimize loss on a specific competing task. We find that it can augment a wide variety of state-of-the-art methods. First, we use targeted LAT to improve robustness to jailbreaks, outperforming a strong R2D2 baseline with orders of magnitude less compute. Second, we use it to more effectively remove backdoors with no knowledge of the trigger. Finally, we use it to more effectively unlearn knowledge for specific undesirable tasks in a way that is also more robust to re-learning. Overall, our results suggest that targeted LAT can be an effective tool for defending against harmful behaviors from LLMs.

Weeds are one of the major reasons for crop yield loss but current weeding practices fail to manage weeds in an efficient and targeted manner. Effective weed management is especially important for crops with high worldwide production such as maize, to maximize crop yield for meeting increasing global demands. Advances in near-sensing and computer vision enable the development of new tools for weed management. Specifically, state-of-the-art segmentation models, coupled with novel sensing technologies, can facilitate timely and accurate weeding and monitoring systems. However, learning-based approaches require annotated data and show a lack of generalization to aerial imaging for different crops. We present a novel dataset for semantic and instance segmentation of crops and weeds in agricultural maize fields. The multispectral UAV-based dataset contains images with RGB, red-edge, and near-infrared bands, a large number of plant instances, dense annotations for maize and four weed classes, and is multitemporal. We provide extensive baseline results for both tasks, including probabilistic methods to quantify prediction uncertainty, improve model calibration, and demonstrate the approach's applicability to out-of-distribution data. The results show the effectiveness of the two additional bands compared to RGB only, and better performance in our target domain than models trained on existing datasets. We hope our dataset advances research on methods and operational systems for fine-grained weed identification, enhancing the robustness and applicability of UAV-based weed management. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/GFZ/weedsgalore

Plasticity, the ability of a neural network to quickly change its predictions in response to new information, is essential for the adaptability and robustness of deep reinforcement learning systems. Deep neural networks are known to lose plasticity over the course of training even in relatively simple learning problems, but the mechanisms driving this phenomenon are still poorly understood. This paper conducts a systematic empirical analysis into plasticity loss, with the goal of understanding the phenomenon mechanistically in order to guide the future development of targeted solutions. We find that loss of plasticity is deeply connected to changes in the curvature of the loss landscape, but that it typically occurs in the absence of saturated units or divergent gradient norms. Based on this insight, we identify a number of parameterization and optimization design choices which enable networks to better preserve plasticity over the course of training. We validate the utility of these findings in larger-scale learning problems by applying the best-performing intervention, layer normalization, to a deep RL agent trained on the Arcade Learning Environment.

Graph Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Graph-RAG) enhances multihop question answering by organizing corpora into knowledge graphs and routing evidence through relational structure. However, practical deployments face two persistent bottlenecks: (i) mixed-difficulty workloads where one-size-fits-all retrieval either wastes cost on easy queries or fails on hard multihop cases, and (ii) extraction loss, where graph abstraction omits fine-grained qualifiers that remain only in source text. We present A2RAG, an adaptive-and-agentic GraphRAG framework for cost-aware and reliable reasoning. A2RAG couples an adaptive controller that verifies evidence sufficiency and triggers targeted refinement only when necessary, with an agentic retriever that progressively escalates retrieval effort and maps graph signals back to provenance text to remain robust under extraction loss and incomplete graphs. Experiments on HotpotQA and 2WikiMultiHopQA demonstrate that A2RAG achieves +9.9/+11.8 absolute gains in Recall@2, while cutting token consumption and end-to-end latency by about 50% relative to iterative multihop baselines.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) built on large language models (LLMs) provide a promising framework for solving complex tasks through role specialization and structured interaction. However, their performance is often limited by miscoordination and, more fundamentally, the lack of fine-grained credit assignment across agents. Existing approaches typically rely on coarse-grained feedback, making it difficult to identify which agents or interaction steps are responsible for errors. We propose Gradient-Based Connections (GBC), an approach for fine-grained attribution and optimization of multi-agent systems. GBC models a MAS as a computational graph and introduces gradient-based connection weights to quantify the influence of each agent's output on downstream agents at the token level. By constructing an attribution graph and propagating task-specific loss signals backward, our method enables precise identification of error sources and targeted prompt optimization. We further develop AgentChord, an efficient implementation that leverages prefix-based gradient computation. Experiments on MultiWOZ and τ-bench show that GBC improves multi-agent performance and outperforms strong single-agent and multi-agent baselines, and higher attribution quality is associated with greater optimization effectiveness. Code is available at: https://github.com/yxc-cyber/AgentChord.

The popularity of LLaMA (Touvron et al., 2023a;b) and other recently emerged moderate-sized large language models (LLMs) highlights the potential of building smaller yet powerful LLMs. Regardless, the cost of training such models from scratch on trillions of tokens remains high. In this work, we study structured pruning as an effective means to develop smaller LLMs from pre-trained, larger models. Our approach employs two key techniques: (1) targeted structured pruning, which prunes a larger model to a specified target shape by removing layers, heads, and intermediate and hidden dimensions in an end-to-end manner, and (2) dynamic batch loading, which dynamically updates the composition of sampled data in each training batch based on varying losses across different domains. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by presenting the Sheared-LLaMA series, pruning the LLaMA2-7B model down to 1.3B and 2.7B parameters. Sheared-LLaMA models outperform state-of-the-art open-source models of equivalent sizes, such as Pythia, INCITE, and OpenLLaMA models, on a wide range of downstream and instruction tuning evaluations, while requiring only 3% of compute compared to training such models from scratch. This work provides compelling evidence that leveraging existing LLMs with structured pruning is a far more cost-effective approach for building smaller LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) trained over extensive corpora risk memorizing sensitive, copyrighted, or toxic content. To address this, we propose OBLIVIATE, a robust unlearning framework that removes targeted data while preserving model utility. The framework follows a structured process: extracting target tokens, building retain sets, and fine-tuning with a tailored loss function comprising three components -- masking, distillation, and world fact. Using low-rank adapters (LoRA) ensures efficiency without compromising unlearning quality. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets, including Harry Potter series, WMDP, and TOFU, using a comprehensive suite of metrics: forget quality (via a new document-level memorization score), model utility, and fluency. Results demonstrate its effectiveness in resisting membership inference attacks, minimizing the impact on retained data, and maintaining robustness across diverse scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained on massive web-scale corpora, raising growing concerns about privacy and copyright. Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a given example was used during training. Existing LLM MIAs largely rely on output probabilities or loss values and often perform only marginally better than random guessing when members and non-members are drawn from the same distribution. We introduce G-Drift MIA, a white-box membership inference method based on gradient-induced feature drift. Given a candidate (x,y), we apply a single targeted gradient-ascent step that increases its loss and measure the resulting changes in internal representations, including logits, hidden-layer activations, and projections onto fixed feature directions, before and after the update. These drift signals are used to train a lightweight logistic classifier that effectively separates members from non-members. Across multiple transformer-based LLMs and datasets derived from realistic MIA benchmarks, G-Drift substantially outperforms confidence-based, perplexity-based, and reference-based attacks. We further show that memorized training samples systematically exhibit smaller and more structured feature drift than non-members, providing a mechanistic link between gradient geometry, representation stability, and memorization. In general, our results demonstrate that small, controlled gradient interventions offer a practical tool for auditing the membership of training-data and assessing privacy risks in LLMs.

Recent copyright agreements between AI companies and content creators underscore the need for fine-grained control over language models' ability to reproduce copyrighted text. Existing defenses-ranging from aggressive unlearning to simplistic output filters-either sacrifice model utility or inadequately address verbatim leakage. We introduce Obliviate, a lightweight post-training method that surgically suppresses exact reproduction of specified sequences while preserving semantic understanding. Obliviate first identifies memorized passages and then, for each target token, minimally adjusts the model's output distribution via a Kullback-Leibler divergence penalty to drive down the probability of exact reproduction. Simultaneously, we enforce a consistency loss on non-target tokens to retain the model's fluency and task performance. We evaluate Obliviate on four popular 6-8B-parameter models (LLaMA-3.1, LLaMA-3.1-Instruct, Qwen-2.5, and Yi-1.5) using synthetic memorization benchmarks and organic copyrighted excerpts (e.g., Moby Dick, Frankenstein, Alice in Wonderland and Les Miserables). Across all settings, Obliviate reduces verbatim recall by two orders of magnitude (e.g., from hundreds of words to fewer than 12) while degrading downstream accuracy by at most 1% on HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA, and Winogrande. Furthermore, we benchmark Obliviate aganist different unlearning and copyright techniques using the MUSE and CoTaEval benchmarks. These results position Obliviate as a practical, high-fidelity solution for copyright compliance in deployed LLMs.

Amidst the rapid advancements in generative language models, the investigation of how training data shapes the performance of GPT models is still emerging. This paper presents GPTfluence, a novel approach that leverages a featurized simulation to assess the impact of training examples on the training dynamics of GPT models. Our approach not only traces the influence of individual training instances on performance trajectories, such as loss and other key metrics, on targeted test points but also enables a comprehensive comparison with existing methods across various training scenarios in GPT models, ranging from 14 million to 2.8 billion parameters, across a range of downstream tasks. Contrary to earlier methods that struggle with generalization to new data, GPTfluence introduces a parameterized simulation of training dynamics, demonstrating robust generalization capabilities to unseen training data. This adaptability is evident across both fine-tuning and instruction-tuning scenarios, spanning tasks in natural language understanding and generation. We will make our code and data publicly available.

Computer-Aided Design (CAD) plays a vital role in engineering and manufacturing, yet current CAD workflows require extensive domain expertise and manual modeling effort. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have made it possible to generate code from natural language, opening new opportunities for automating parametric 3D modeling. However, directly translating human design intent into executable CAD code remains highly challenging, due to the need for logical reasoning, syntactic correctness, and numerical precision. In this work, we propose CAD-RL, a multimodal Chain-of-Thought (CoT) guided reinforcement learning post training framework for CAD modeling code generation. Our method combines CoT-based Cold Start with goal-driven reinforcement learning post training using three task-specific rewards: executability reward, geometric accuracy reward, and external evaluation reward. To ensure stable policy learning under sparse and high-variance reward conditions, we introduce three targeted optimization strategies: Trust Region Stretch for improved exploration, Precision Token Loss for enhanced dimensions parameter accuracy, and Overlong Filtering to reduce noisy supervision. To support training and benchmarking, we release ExeCAD, a noval dataset comprising 16,540 real-world CAD examples with paired natural language and structured design language descriptions, executable CADQuery scripts, and rendered 3D models. Experiments demonstrate that CAD-RL achieves significant improvements in reasoning quality, output precision, and code executability over existing VLMs.

Large-scale maps of field boundaries are essential for agricultural monitoring tasks. Existing deep learning approaches for satellite-based field mapping are sensitive to illumination, spatial scale, and changes in geographic location. We conduct the first systematic evaluation of segmentation and geospatial foundation models (GFMs) for global field boundary delineation using the Fields of The World (FTW) benchmark. We evaluate 18 models under unified experimental settings, showing that a U-Net semantic segmentation model outperforms instance-based and GFM alternatives on a suite of performance and deployment metrics. We propose a new segmentation approach that combines a U-Net backbone, composite loss functions, and targeted data augmentations to enhance performance and robustness under real-world conditions. Our model achieves a 76\% IoU and 47\% object-F1 on FTW, an increase of 6\% and 9\% over the previous baseline. Our approach provides a practical framework for reliable, scalable, and reproducible field boundary delineation across model design, training, and inference. We release all models and model-derived field boundary datasets for five countries.

Recent diffusion- and flow-based VTON methods achieve strong results with pretrained generative models, but their reliance on multi-step sampling incurs high inference cost, while existing acceleration methods largely overlook the intrinsic structure of the try-on task. In this paper, we highlight a key observation: VTON outputs are highly constrained by the conditional inputs, suggesting that the conditional sampling trajectory can be much straighter than that in general image generation, making one-step generation a natural solution. However, limited task-specific data makes training from scratch impractical, forcing existing methods to fine-tune pretrained models whose objectives do not encourage such straight conditional trajectories. Thus, the deviation from an ideal straight path mainly comes from the mismatch between pretrained base models and the conditional nature of try-on generation, rather than from the task itself. Motivated by this insight, we encourage straighter VTON sampling trajectories through three targeted modifications: pure conditional transport, a garment preservation loss, and a self consistency loss. We further introduce a one-step distillation stage. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with one-step sampling, establishing a new standard for efficient and high-quality VTON.

Deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) for discriminative workloads is often limited by inference latency, compute, and API costs at scale. Active distillation reduces these costs by querying an LLM oracle to train compact discriminative students, but most pipelines distill only final labels, discarding intermediate reasoning signals and offering limited diagnostics of what reasoning is missing and where errors arise. We propose Graph of Concept Predictors (GCP), a reasoning-aware active distillation framework that externalizes the teacher's decision process as a directed acyclic graph and mirrors it with modular concept predictors in the student. GCP enhances sample efficiency through a graph-aware acquisition strategy that targets uncertainty and disagreement at critical reasoning nodes. Additionally, it improves training stability and efficiency by performing targeted sub-module retraining, which attributes downstream loss to specific concept predictors and updates only the most influential modules. Experiments on eight NLP classification benchmarks demonstrate that GCP enhances performance under limited annotation budgets while yielding more interpretable and controllable training dynamics. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ziyang-Yu/GCP.

Recent advances in knowledge distillation (KD) predominantly emphasize feature-level knowledge transfer, frequently overlooking critical information embedded within the teacher's logit distributions. In this paper, we revisit logit-based distillation and reveal an underexplored yet critical element: Top-K knowledge. Motivated by this insight, we propose Top-scaled Knowledge Distillation (TopKD), a simple, efficient, and architecture-agnostic framework that significantly enhances logit-based distillation. TopKD consists of two main components: (1) a Top-K Scaling Module (TSM), which adaptively amplifies the most informative logits, and (2) a Top-K Decoupled Loss (TDL), which offers targeted and effective supervision. Notably, TopKD integrates seamlessly into existing KD methods without introducing extra modules or requiring architectural changes. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-100, ImageNet, STL-10, and Tiny-ImageNet demonstrate that TopKD consistently surpasses state-of-the-art distillation methods. Moreover, our method demonstrates substantial effectiveness when distilling Vision Transformers, underscoring its versatility across diverse network architectures. These findings highlight the significant potential of logits to advance knowledge distillation.

Large language models (LLMs) may memorize sensitive or copyrighted content, raising privacy and legal concerns. Due to the high cost of retraining from scratch, researchers attempt to employ machine unlearning to remove specific content from LLMs while preserving the overall performance. In this paper, we discuss several issues in machine unlearning for LLMs and provide our insights on possible approaches. To address the issue of inadequate evaluation of model outputs after unlearning, we introduce three additional metrics to evaluate token diversity, sentence semantics, and factual correctness. We then categorize unlearning methods into untargeted and targeted, and discuss their issues respectively. Specifically, the behavior that untargeted unlearning attempts to approximate is unpredictable and may involve hallucinations, and existing regularization is insufficient for targeted unlearning. To alleviate these issues, we propose using the objective of maximizing entropy (ME) for untargeted unlearning and incorporate answer preservation (AP) loss as regularization for targeted unlearning. Experimental results across three scenarios, i.e., fictitious unlearning, continual unlearning, and real-world unlearning, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/closer-look-LLM-unlearning.

Multimodal LLMs are powerful but prone to object hallucinations, which describe non-existent entities and harm reliability. While recent unlearning methods attempt to mitigate this, we identify a critical flaw: structural fragility. We empirically demonstrate that standard erasure achieves only superficial suppression, trapping the model in sharp minima where hallucinations catastrophically resurge after lightweight relearning. To ensure geometric stability, we propose SARE, which casts unlearning as a targeted min-max optimization problem and uses a Targeted-SAM mechanism to explicitly flatten the loss landscape around hallucinated concepts. By suppressing hallucinations under simulated worst-case parameter perturbations, our framework ensures robust removal stable against weight shifts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SARE significantly outperforms baselines in erasure efficacy while preserving general generation quality. Crucially, it maintains persistent hallucination suppression against relearning and parameter updates, validating the effectiveness of geometric stabilization.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) substantially improves single-sample accuracy (pass@1) but causes the policy's solution space to contract, diminishing the returns of test-time scaling. In this work, we investigate where inside a reasoning trajectory this breadth is lost: does the policy fail to access a valid solution family, or does it fail to execute computation once initiated? To disentangle access from execution, we analyze the Countdown task, whose solution space can be exhaustively enumerated into discrete entrance families defined by the first operand and operator, across PPO on Qwen2.5-3B and GRPO on Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct. Across both training setups, solution coverage falls by up to 67%, halving even on problems solved across all checkpoints. We show that this contraction is heavily concentrated at the entrance: per-token likelihood shifts are 11x--16x larger prior to the first arithmetic operation than during downstream reasoning. Supplying only an unselected entrance prefix restores completion rates in low-access families by over an order of magnitude (0.018 -> 0.212 under PPO), demonstrating that alternative solutions remain executable but are no longer initiated. Guided by this localization, we find that while surface prompting fails to recover diversity, entrance-targeted interventions succeed: late-layer parameter interpolation with early checkpoints increases solution coverage by 37% at no loss in pass@1. Finally, we show that early-step entropy collapse recurs across six math benchmarks with 7B and 14B models, but is not an inevitable byproduct of reasoning optimization: an SFT baseline preserves more than double the coverage, and staged SFT--DPO--RLVR pipelines retain early-step entropy. In summary, reasoning breadth is lost at the door, not inside the room. Code: https://github.com/ershiyidian/early-branch-locking.

Multi-agent systems built from large language models are deployed widely, yet how much performance is lost when two LLMs must coordinate rather than act alone remains unclear. We formulate the collaboration tax as the team-decentralisation loss of a two-player cooperative game with private information, with two propositions characterising its sign and its equivalence to a max-superadditivity violation. We operationalise this definition on 32 solo-tractable tasks grouped by source of grounding friction and measure it on 11 models from 7 providers. The tax is structured along two no-exception axes: a category ordering across every model and a monotonic decrease with capability. The proximate mechanism is not a reasoning deficit but a four-stage conversational cascade in which agents make ungrounded claims, fail to query the partner, skip integrating both views, and accept the answer without re-derivation. The tax is mechanically predictable from conversation features and partly tractable: a prompt intervention targeting all four stages closes a substantial fraction of the gap, with the dominant bottleneck differing across categories. In heterogeneous pairs the tax is pulled toward the stronger partner rather than the additive midpoint, empirically realising the max-superadditivity violation predicted by our framework. Together these results recast collaboration in LLM systems as a measurable, predictable, and partly tractable cost.

Document layout understanding remains data-intensive despite advances in semi-supervised learning. We present a framework that enhances semi-supervised detection by fusing visual predictions with structural priors from text-pretrained LLMs via principled probabilistic weighting. Given unlabeled documents, an OCR-LLM pipeline infers hierarchical regions which are combined with teacher detector outputs through inverse-variance fusion to generate refined pseudo-labels.Our method demonstrates consistent gains across model scales. With a lightweight SwiftFormer backbone (26M params), we achieve 88.2pm0.3 AP using only 5\% labels on PubLayNet. When applied to document-pretrained LayoutLMv3 (133M params), our fusion framework reaches 89.7pm0.4 AP, surpassing both LayoutLMv3 with standard semi-supervised learning (89.1pm0.4 AP, p=0.02) and matching UDOP~udop (89.8 AP) which requires 100M+ pages of multimodal pretraining. This demonstrates that LLM structural priors are complementary to both lightweight and pretrained architectures. Key findings include: (1) learned instance-adaptive gating improves over fixed weights by +0.9 AP with data-dependent PAC bounds correctly predicting convergence; (2) open-source LLMs enable privacy-preserving deployment with minimal loss (Llama-3-70B: 87.1 AP lightweight, 89.4 AP with LayoutLMv3); (3) LLMs provide targeted semantic disambiguation (18.7\% of cases, +3.8 AP gain) beyond simple text heuristics.Total system cost includes \$12 for GPT-4o-mini API or 17 GPU-hours for local Llama-3-70B per 50K pages, amortized across training runs.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

The article presents and evaluates a custom loss function designed specifically for machine learning models used in algorithmic trading. Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity, the proposed Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss (GMADL) function produces superior results and has better numerical properties during optimization than classic regression and classification based loss functions. Better results correspond to higher risk-weighted returns based on buy and sell signals derived from forecasts generated by models trained using GMADL. In practice, GMADL improves model evaluation by aligning the learning objective with trading performance rather than generic error minimization or simple directional accuracy. Through additional parameterization, GMADL provides a flexible mechanism for adjusting the loss's sensitivity to different return magnitudes, which affects model evaluation consistency across various market regimes. This improves the selection of model configurations that are more consistent with performance-based criteria. Moreover, the implementation uses robust machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, to provide robust and scalable model evaluation across real-world financial data from different asset classes.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

A service system may use the same categories to assign standard allocations and to check whether each service is fulfilled. Finer categories can match individual needs more closely, but they divide the observations available for monitoring. We study this conflict for a fixed menu from which participants select by declaring a category, with fulfilment assessed from each category's aggregate outcomes during a fixed period. We relate allocation loss to variation in preferred allocations within categories and identify conditions under which aggregate observations preserve the verification performance of individual records. For nested refinements under stated utility and observation assumptions, an allocation-loss tolerance and a per-category detection target define a feasibility band. Categories must be fine enough to provide suitable allocations but sufficiently populated to support verification. A source-dependent lower bound on declaration entropy and a minimum contributor requirement give necessary information and population constraints. For an explicit finite population with quadratic utility and binary service outcomes, we prove the exact feasible range across all categorical designs and exhibit designs attaining the information lower bound at specified tolerances. The results provide conditions for choosing categories jointly for allocation and verification.

Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a groundbreaking paradigm in machine learning (ML), offering privacy-preserving collaborative model training across diverse datasets. Despite its promise, FL faces significant hurdles in non-identically and independently distributed (non-IID) data scenarios, where most existing methods often struggle with data heterogeneity and lack robustness in performance. This paper introduces Federated Loss Exploration (FedLEx), an innovative approach specifically designed to tackle these challenges. FedLEx distinctively addresses the shortcomings of existing FL methods in non-IID settings by optimizing its learning behavior for scenarios in which assumptions about data heterogeneity are impractical or unknown. It employs a federated loss exploration technique, where clients contribute to a global guidance matrix by calculating gradient deviations for model parameters. This matrix serves as a strategic compass to guide clients' gradient updates in subsequent FL rounds, thereby fostering optimal parameter updates for the global model. FedLEx effectively navigates the complex loss surfaces inherent in non-IID data, enhancing knowledge transfer in an efficient manner, since only a small number of epochs and small amount of data are required to build a strong global guidance matrix that can achieve model convergence without the need for additional data sharing or data distribution statics in a large client scenario. Our extensive experiments with state-of-the art FL algorithms demonstrate significant improvements in performance, particularly under realistic non-IID conditions, thus highlighting FedLEx's potential to overcome critical barriers in diverse FL applications.

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

Diffusion models have emerged as a pivotal advancement in generative models, setting new standards to the quality of the generated instances. In the current paper we aim to underscore a discrepancy between conventional training methods and the desired conditional sampling behavior of these models. While the prevalent classifier-free guidance technique works well, it's not without flaws. At higher values for the guidance scale parameter w, we often get out of distribution samples and mode collapse, whereas at lower values for w we may not get the desired specificity. To address these challenges, we introduce an updated loss function that better aligns training objectives with sampling behaviors. Experimental validation with FID scores on CIFAR-10 elucidates our method's ability to produce higher quality samples with fewer sampling timesteps, and be more robust to the choice of guidance scale w. We also experiment with fine-tuning Stable Diffusion on the proposed loss, to provide early evidence that large diffusion models may also benefit from this refined loss function.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

In machine learning systems, bias mitigation approaches aim to make outcomes fairer across privileged and unprivileged groups. Bias mitigation methods work in different ways and have known "waterfall" effects, e.g., mitigating bias at one place may manifest bias elsewhere. In this paper, we aim to characterise impacted cohorts when mitigation interventions are applied. To do so, we treat intervention effects as a classification task and learn an explainable meta-classifier to identify cohorts that have altered outcomes. We examine a range of bias mitigation strategies that work at various stages of the model life cycle. We empirically demonstrate that our meta-classifier is able to uncover impacted cohorts. Further, we show that all tested mitigation strategies negatively impact a non-trivial fraction of cases, i.e., people who receive unfavourable outcomes solely on account of mitigation efforts. This is despite improvement in fairness metrics. We use these results as a basis to argue for more careful audits of static mitigation interventions that go beyond aggregate metrics.

Large language model pretraining is compute-intensive, yet many tokens contribute marginally to learning, resulting in inefficiency. We introduce Efficient Selective Language Modeling (ESLM), a risk-aware algorithm that improves training efficiency and distributional robustness by performing online token-level batch selection. ESLM leverages per-token statistics (e.g., entropy or loss) and applies value-at-risk thresholding to retain only the most informative tokens per batch. This data-centric mechanism reshapes the training loss, prioritizing high-risk tokens and eliminating redundant gradient computation. We frame ESLM as a bilevel game: the model competes with a masking adversary that selects worst-case token subsets under a constrained thresholding rule. In the loss-based setting, ESLM recovers conditional value-at-risk loss minimization, providing a principled connection to distributionally robust optimization. We extend our approach to Ada-ESLM, which adaptively tunes the selection confidence during training. Experiments on GPT-2 pretraining show that ESLM significantly reduces training FLOPs while maintaining or improving both perplexity and downstream performance compared to baselines. Our approach also scales across model sizes, pretraining corpora, and integrates naturally with knowledge distillation.

Trading discipline often fails people. Our study tested whether four AI trading agents followed their strategies and risk rules. Offering traders the evidence and an agent evaluation toolkit to separate luck from following the rules, before giving agents meaningful autonomy or capital. Our study analysed 2,627 closed positions from 12 February to 27 August 2026 across the same asset universe and execution conditions. Most positions were simulated against live prices with a 0.09% round-trip fee; 18% involved real Hyperliquid orders. Each position declared a strategy, stop and target, with a limit of five open positions per agent. The fleet finished net positive after fees. Rule adherence was high across all four agents, including the unprofitable one. Profitability tracked how often agents won relative to their break-even win rates. Institutional-style controls ran by default and contained losses through a 29% market drawdown and recovery, with documented exceptions. The discipline held for all four agents. Agents kept 97.5% of gross loss within declared stops, and typical losses closed at declared levels. Declared risk remained stable after losses and broadly stable across calm and volatile months. Twenty-three of 24 runs respected the position limit; logs identify the exception's size and duration. The same live data produced different results across assigned strategies. The trade-log tests can be rerun from the published trade snapshot; regime tests also require the published Bitcoin prices and regime labels. Section 3.5 specifies the stop-breach tolerance. These trade-level results are not account-level returns or proof of a lasting edge. Our study provides an evaluation toolkit to help traders distinguish rule-following from luck before committing capital. For anyone considering allocating capital to agents to trade, discipline should be the entry test, not the only test.

Class imbalance is a fundamental challenge in medical image segmentation, where frequent classes typically dominate training at the expense of rare classes. Loss-based approaches mitigate imbalance by reweighting the per-pixel loss within the batch, while sampling strategies control which images enter the batch. Yet neither explicitly controls which classes appear within the batch, leaving rare-class exposure only partially rebalanced. In this work, we adopt episodic sampling from few-shot learning to promote class-balanced batch construction in a fully supervised setting. We decouple episodic sampling from its conventional metric-learning context and evaluate it in body composition segmentation in CT. We compare episodic sampling against random and weighted sampling on nine muscle and adipose tissues, derived from 210 scans of the public SAROS dataset. Training is performed under full- and low-data regimes, with additional comparisons under matched training iteration budgets. Under full-data training, all three strategies performed comparably (mean Dice 0.882 for episodic, 0.878 for random and weighted). Under low-data training, episodic sampling outperformed random and weighted (0.787 vs. 0.758 and 0.762), driven by a 12-fold difference in training iterations. Under matched training budgets, random and weighted overfit earlier, while episodic improved for approximately three times more iterations before plateauing. Our findings identify the training iteration budget as under-recognized confound in sampling strategies, motivating iteration-aware evaluation protocols for small datasets. Furthermore, the residual advantage of episodic sampling is consistent with an implicit regularization effect of class-balanced batches, offering a low-cost, model-agnostic strategy for class-imbalanced medical image segmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/iasonsky/episodic-sampling.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We study reliability in autonomous language-model agents that translate user mandates into validated tool actions under real capital. The setting is DX Terminal Pro, a 21-day deployment in which 3,505 user-funded agents traded real ETH in a bounded onchain market. Users configured vaults through structured controls and natural-language strategies, but only agents could choose normal buy/sell trades. The system produced 7.5M agent invocations, roughly 300K onchain actions, about $20M in volume, more than 5,000 ETH deployed, roughly 70B inference tokens, and 99.9% settlement success for policy-valid submitted transactions. Long-running agents accumulated thousands of sequential decisions, including 6,000+ prompt-state-action cycles for continuously active agents, yielding a large-scale trace from user mandate to rendered prompt, reasoning, validation, portfolio state, and settlement. Reliability did not come from the base model alone; it emerged from the operating layer around the model: prompt compilation, typed controls, policy validation, execution guards, memory design, and trace-level observability. Pre-launch testing exposed failures that text-only benchmarks rarely measure, including fabricated trading rules, fee paralysis, numeric anchoring, cadence trading, and misread tokenomics. Targeted harness changes reduced fabricated sell rules from 57% to 3%, reduced fee-led observations from 32.5% to below 10%, and increased capital deployment from 42.9% to 78.0% in an affected test population. We show that capital-managing agents should be evaluated across the full path from user mandate to prompt, validated action, and settlement.

Language model developers typically filter out high-risk content -- such as toxic or copyrighted text -- from their pre-training data to prevent models from generating similar outputs. However, removing such data altogether limits models' ability to recognize and appropriately respond to harmful or sensitive content. In this paper, we introduce Selective Loss to Understand but Not Generate (SLUNG), a pre-training paradigm through which models learn to understand high-risk data without learning to generate it. Instead of uniformly applying the next-token prediction loss, SLUNG selectively avoids incentivizing the generation of high-risk tokens while ensuring they remain within the model's context window. As the model learns to predict low-risk tokens that follow high-risk ones, it is forced to understand the high-risk content. Through our experiments, we show that SLUNG consistently improves models' understanding of high-risk data (e.g., ability to recognize toxic content) without increasing its generation (e.g., toxicity of model responses). Overall, our SLUNG paradigm enables models to benefit from high-risk text that would otherwise be filtered out.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

The Federated Learning setting has a central server coordinating the training of a model on a network of devices. One of the challenges is variable training performance when the dataset has a class imbalance. In this paper, we address this by introducing a new loss function called Fed-Focal Loss. We propose to address the class imbalance by reshaping cross-entropy loss such that it down-weights the loss assigned to well-classified examples along the lines of focal loss. Additionally, by leveraging a tunable sampling framework, we take into account selective client model contributions on the central server to further focus the detector during training and hence improve its robustness. Using a detailed experimental analysis with the VIRTUAL (Variational Federated Multi-Task Learning) approach, we demonstrate consistently superior performance in both the balanced and unbalanced scenarios for MNIST, FEMNIST, VSN and HAR benchmarks. We obtain a more than 9% (absolute percentage) improvement in the unbalanced MNIST benchmark. We further show that our technique can be adopted across multiple Federated Learning algorithms to get improvements.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that no mistake is irreparable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are catastrophic, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe that round and aim to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We first show that in general, any algorithm either constantly queries the mentor or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online learning model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

While language models have exceptional capabilities at text generation, they lack a natural inductive bias for emitting numbers and thus struggle in tasks involving reasoning over quantities, especially arithmetics. This has particular relevance in scientific datasets where combinations of text and numerical data are abundant. One fundamental limitation is the nature of the CE loss, which assumes a nominal (categorical) scale and thus cannot convey proximity between generated number tokens. As a remedy, we here present two versions of a number token loss. The first is based on an L_p loss between the ground truth token value and the weighted sum of the predicted class probabilities. The second loss minimizes the Wasserstein-1 distance between the distribution of the predicted output probabilities and the ground truth distribution. These regression-like losses can easily be added to any language model and extend the CE objective during training. We compare the proposed schemes on a mathematics dataset against existing tokenization, encoding, and decoding schemes for improving number representation in language models. Our results reveal a significant improvement in numerical accuracy when equipping a standard T5 model with the proposed loss schemes.

Machine learning recommendations are often evaluated one model at a time, despite deployment across interconnected decision makers. For continuous NPK fertilizer prescriptions, correlated errors can aggregate across farms and generate systemic costs. A model of shared and farm-specific recommendation errors links expected social loss to model adoption shares; the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index characterizes concentration effects when common model errors are independent and predictive risks are equal. A covariance-generalized formulation captures the dependence between model families. A two-model threshold characterizes when privately optimal monoculture is socially dominated, and a convex portfolio rule limits average private predictive regret. Nine model families across five Moroccan cereal systems provide a benchmark-based calibration. Under illustrative parameters and a 10% regret cap, accuracy-constrained diversification lowers modeled social loss in all five systems by 10.89-41.53% (mean 19.41%). Uniform allocation reduces modeled loss in this setting, but breaches the regret cap in every crop. Correlation sensitivity shows that highly dependent model errors attenuate the benefits of diversification. These counterfactual outcomes are not estimates of agronomic or monetary welfare; the framework identifies adoption architecture and error dependence as ecosystem-level evaluation variables.

In staggered treatment-adoption designs, later-treated units are valid controls for an earlier-treated cohort only until their own treatment begins, so the admissible donor set contracts with event time. Fixing the donor pool at the longest horizon discards temporarily eligible donors, whereas re-estimating synthetic-control weights independently at each horizon can make the counterfactual unstable as donor composition changes. We propose Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment (RT-SC-DiD). For each cohort and event-time horizon, the estimator fits weights on the currently untreated donors while shrinking them toward a transported reference that reallocates the weight of exiting donors to similar surviving donors. A DiD baseline correction removes persistent level differences. We characterize distortion from horizon-by-horizon reoptimization, derive the loading change induced by naive deletion and renormalization, and give a conditional recursive bound for error propagation under an explicitly assumed regularity condition on the transport map. We also introduce donor-support diagnostics and a donor-only placebo procedure for selecting the transport penalty. In an 80-replication pilot comparison and a separate 40-replication-per-value sensitivity analysis, intermediate transport regularization reduces average RMSE relative to independent horizon-specific estimation and strong anchoring. This evidence supports the method's bias-variance motivation but is not a proved guarantee. RT-SC-DiD is intended for settings where later-treated units provide useful short-horizon information and donor support contracts materially over time. Existing staggered synthetic-control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods do not, to our knowledge, explicitly regularize within-cohort weight sequences toward transported references as risk sets contract.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Training on web-scale data can take months. But most computation and time is wasted on redundant and noisy points that are already learnt or not learnable. To accelerate training, we introduce Reducible Holdout Loss Selection (RHO-LOSS), a simple but principled technique which selects approximately those points for training that most reduce the model's generalization loss. As a result, RHO-LOSS mitigates the weaknesses of existing data selection methods: techniques from the optimization literature typically select 'hard' (e.g. high loss) points, but such points are often noisy (not learnable) or less task-relevant. Conversely, curriculum learning prioritizes 'easy' points, but such points need not be trained on once learned. In contrast, RHO-LOSS selects points that are learnable, worth learning, and not yet learnt. RHO-LOSS trains in far fewer steps than prior art, improves accuracy, and speeds up training on a wide range of datasets, hyperparameters, and architectures (MLPs, CNNs, and BERT). On the large web-scraped image dataset Clothing-1M, RHO-LOSS trains in 18x fewer steps and reaches 2% higher final accuracy than uniform data shuffling.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Candidate-scoring decision models return a probability distribution over a presented set of answers. Public documentation of one such system, Jev, and of an open counterpart, JevAny, describes three training ingredients that determine what these probabilities estimate: soft targets from larger models, a frozen pretrained backbone and temperature calibration. We analyze each ingredient in Gaussian surrogates where the finite-sample risk can be computed exactly. A student trained on teacher targets inherits the teacher's bias, which more student data does not remove and agreement with the teacher does not reveal. A fixed representation lowers the risk only below an explicit sample-size threshold. In a probit model the exact recalibration map is a temperature scaling, which removes all excess risk only when the teacher's coefficient has the correct direction and otherwise leaves a residual that calibration diagnostics do not detect. Under Luce's choice axiom, candidate scores are coherent across refinements of an event if and only if they aggregate by log-sum-exp. On 231,521 credit card complaints from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, where the decision is whether a complaint ends in monetary relief, a student trained on a logistic teacher's probabilities ends at the teacher's decision cost while a student trained on outcomes goes 8% below it, a 30B model read zero-shot remains worse than the teacher after recalibration, and that model departs from the coherence condition by 17.5 decibans. Pretrained representations reduce the labeled data required and calibration corrects the scale of the probabilities, but neither corrects a biased teacher, so the probabilities have to be checked against realized outcomes.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

In today's heavily overparameterized models, the value of the training loss provides few guarantees on model generalization ability. Indeed, optimizing only the training loss value, as is commonly done, can easily lead to suboptimal model quality. Motivated by prior work connecting the geometry of the loss landscape and generalization, we introduce a novel, effective procedure for instead simultaneously minimizing loss value and loss sharpness. In particular, our procedure, Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), seeks parameters that lie in neighborhoods having uniformly low loss; this formulation results in a min-max optimization problem on which gradient descent can be performed efficiently. We present empirical results showing that SAM improves model generalization across a variety of benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, finetuning tasks) and models, yielding novel state-of-the-art performance for several. Additionally, we find that SAM natively provides robustness to label noise on par with that provided by state-of-the-art procedures that specifically target learning with noisy labels. We open source our code at https://github.com/google-research/sam.

As large language models become increasingly widespread, third-party providers that deploy open-weight models have become an important part of the ecosystem. Auditing the quality of their inference APIs is therefore an open problem. We formalize hosted model routing as a stochastic process and propose \textbf{Ventor-QTest}, a composite black-box audit that requires no probability information from the target API. Its repeated-request component sends each frozen constrained context to the target multiple times, reconstructs a categorical output distribution from the returned text counts, and reports average fidelity loss (AFL) as a null-bias-corrected, within-window mean coarsened-KL statistic. Its long-sequence component uses independent runs to report extreme fidelity loss (EFL) through the empirical upper tail of a run-level reference-centered-surprisal statistic. Across three logprob-capable route conditions, AFL shows strong linear descriptive agreement with a logprob-derived coarsened-KL comparator. Across seven route snapshots, 20-run sequence probes reveal route-specific EFL variation. AFL and EFL have little detectable route-level association with GPQA-Diamond accuracy. In contrast, pronounced EFL coincides with a decline in Terminal-Bench pass rate as task exposure increases. This pattern may arise because correctness in long-horizon tasks is more sensitive to extreme fidelity loss. These results motivate reporting AFL and EFL jointly, particularly when auditing long-horizon agentic tasks. The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AI-Infra-Guard/tree/main/services/api_checker/ventor_qtest.

Organizations across finance, healthcare, transportation, content moderation, and critical infrastructure are rapidly deploying highly automated AI systems, yet they lack principled methods to quantify how increasing automation amplifies harm when failures occur. We propose a parsimonious Bayesian risk decomposition expressing expected loss as the product of three terms: the probability of system failure, the conditional probability that a failure propagates into harm given the automation level, and the expected severity of harm. This framework isolates a critical quantity -- the conditional probability that failures propagate into harm -- which captures execution and oversight risk rather than model accuracy alone. We develop complete theoretical foundations: formal proofs of the decomposition, a harm propagation equivalence theorem linking the harm propagation probability to observable execution controls, risk elasticity measures, efficient frontier analysis for automation policy, and optimal resource allocation principles with second-order conditions. We motivate the framework with an illustrative case study of the 2012 Knight Capital incident ($440M loss) as one instantiation of a broadly applicable failure pattern, and characterize the research design required to empirically validate the framework at scale across deployment domains. This work provides the theoretical foundations for a new class of deployment-focused risk governance tools for agentic and automated AI systems.

Imbalanced data are frequently encountered in real-world classification tasks. Previous works on imbalanced learning mostly focused on learning with a minority class of few samples. However, the notion of imbalance also applies to cases where the minority class contains abundant samples, which is usually the case for industrial applications like fraud detection in the area of financial risk management. In this paper, we take a population-level approach to imbalanced learning by proposing a new formulation called ultra-imbalanced classification (UIC). Under UIC, loss functions behave differently even if infinite amount of training samples are available. To understand the intrinsic difficulty of UIC problems, we borrow ideas from information theory and establish a framework to compare different loss functions through the lens of statistical information. A novel learning objective termed Tunable Boosting Loss is developed which is provably resistant against data imbalance under UIC, as well as being empirically efficient verified by extensive experimental studies on both public and industrial datasets.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

Recently, a series of papers proposed deep learning-based approaches to sample from unnormalized target densities using controlled diffusion processes. In this work, we identify these approaches as special cases of the Schr\"odinger bridge problem, seeking the most likely stochastic evolution between a given prior distribution and the specified target. We further generalize this framework by introducing a variational formulation based on divergences between path space measures of time-reversed diffusion processes. This abstract perspective leads to practical losses that can be optimized by gradient-based algorithms and includes previous objectives as special cases. At the same time, it allows us to consider divergences other than the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence that is known to suffer from mode collapse. In particular, we propose the so-called log-variance loss, which exhibits favorable numerical properties and leads to significantly improved performance across all considered approaches.

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Portfolio management is an essential component of investment strategy that aims to maximize returns while minimizing risk. This paper explores several portfolio management strategies, including asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management, and their importance in optimizing portfolio performance. These strategies are examined individually and in combination to demonstrate how they can help investors maximize alpha and minimize beta. Asset allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among different asset classes to achieve the desired level of risk and return. Diversification involves spreading investments across different securities and sectors to minimize the impact of individual security or sector-specific risks. Active management involves security selection and risk management techniques to generate excess returns while minimizing losses. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and options strategies, aim to minimize losses in adverse market conditions. The importance of combining these strategies for optimizing portfolio performance is emphasized in this paper. The proper implementation of these strategies can help investors achieve their investment goals over the long-term, while minimizing exposure to risks. A call to action for investors to utilize portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta is also provided.

Loss reweighting has shown significant benefits for machine unlearning with large language models (LLMs). However, their exact functionalities are left unclear and the optimal strategy remains an open question, thus impeding the understanding and improvement of existing methodologies. In this paper, we identify two distinct goals of loss reweighting, namely, Saturation and Importance -- the former indicates that those insufficiently optimized data should be emphasized, while the latter stresses some critical data that are most influential for loss minimization. To study their usefulness, we design specific reweighting strategies for each goal and evaluate their respective effects on unlearning. We conduct extensive empirical analyses on well-established benchmarks, and summarize some important observations as follows: (i) Saturation enhances efficacy more than importance-based reweighting, and their combination can yield additional improvements. (ii) Saturation typically allocates lower weights to data with lower likelihoods, whereas importance-based reweighting does the opposite. (iii) The efficacy of unlearning is also largely influenced by the smoothness and granularity of the weight distributions. Based on these findings, we propose SatImp, a simple reweighting method that combines the advantages of both saturation and importance. Empirical results on extensive datasets validate the efficacy of our method, potentially bridging existing research gaps and indicating directions for future research. Our code is available at https://github.com/tmlr-group/SatImp.

Adversarial optimization under a shared ell_1 budget requires deciding not only how much perturbation to use, but also where that limited budget should be spent. This allocation problem becomes particularly important when individual input coordinates are subject to local magnitude constraints, which restrict the extent to which perturbation can be concentrated on a small number of locations. We introduce an importance-guided allocation mechanism that uses a fixed clean-gradient prior to steer perturbation toward model-sensitive regions while leaving the feasible perturbation set unchanged. A centered allocation objective encourages perturbation at above-average importance locations and discourages unnecessary expenditure elsewhere, thereby redistributing rather than enlarging the available budget. Across ten robust model--dataset configurations under a common capacity-limited threat setting, the proposed method improves attack success over matched APGD- and PMA-based baselines by 2.52 to 17.70 percentage points. Allocation analysis shows that these gains are accompanied by substantially greater perturbation mass in high-importance regions without increased global ell_1 consumption. Mechanism ablations further show that centered non-uniform redistribution provides part of the benefit, while model-derived importance yields an additional improvement. These results identify perturbation allocation as a distinct and practically relevant dimension of adversarial optimization under shared-budget, locally constrained threat models.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Modern deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performances but are typically over-parameterized. The over-parameterization may result in undesirably large generalization error in the absence of other customized training strategies. Recently, a line of research under the name of Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) has shown that minimizing a sharpness measure, which reflects the geometry of the loss landscape, can significantly reduce the generalization error. However, SAM-like methods incur a two-fold computational overhead of the given base optimizer (e.g. SGD) for approximating the sharpness measure. In this paper, we propose Sharpness-Aware Training for Free, or SAF, which mitigates the sharp landscape at almost zero additional computational cost over the base optimizer. Intuitively, SAF achieves this by avoiding sudden drops in the loss in the sharp local minima throughout the trajectory of the updates of the weights. Specifically, we suggest a novel trajectory loss, based on the KL-divergence between the outputs of DNNs with the current weights and past weights, as a replacement of the SAM's sharpness measure. This loss captures the rate of change of the training loss along the model's update trajectory. By minimizing it, SAF ensures the convergence to a flat minimum with improved generalization capabilities. Extensive empirical results show that SAF minimizes the sharpness in the same way that SAM does, yielding better results on the ImageNet dataset with essentially the same computational cost as the base optimizer.

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident predictions, leading to miscalibration. Various methods have been proposed to address this issue by designing effective loss functions for calibration, such as focal loss. In this paper, we analyze its effectiveness and provide a unified loss framework of focal loss and its variants, where we mainly attribute their superiority in model calibration to the loss weighting factor that estimates sample-wise uncertainty. Based on our analysis, existing loss functions fail to achieve optimal calibration performance due to two main issues: including misalignment during optimization and insufficient precision in uncertainty estimation. Specifically, focal loss cannot align sample uncertainty with gradient scaling and the single logit cannot indicate the uncertainty. To address these issues, we reformulate the optimization from the perspective of gradients, which focuses on uncertain samples. Meanwhile, we propose using the Brier Score as the loss weight factor, which provides a more accurate uncertainty estimation via all the logits. Extensive experiments on various models and datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Training vision-language models (VLMs) for medical report generation is often hindered by the scarcity of high-quality annotated data. This work evaluates the use of a weighted loss function to improve data efficiency. Compared to standard cross-entropy loss, which treats all token prediction errors equally, the reweighted loss shifts the focus to semantically salient tokens with outsized clinical importance. In experiments on ophthalmological report generation, we show that this simple method improves efficiency across multiple data scales, achieving similar report quality with up to ten times less training data.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

When a steering intervention changes a language model's behavior, which part of the intervention deserves the credit? We test this question for a target-centered, scaled conceptor complement by removing its fitted covariance filter while preserving the same target-specific center and gain. At the original aperture α=.05 and gain β=2, all 21 fitted maps across three models and seven targets expand every direction at the generation intervention layers. The matrix correction is 0.093%--7.815% of the matched-control displacement on held-out extraction activations. In 480 paired comparisons within a 1,920-response study, retaining the matrix changes many individual texts but does not establish a consistent additional target-suppression benefit on the four-target panel. A geometric aperture sweep shows that the operating regime changes with the filter setting. Separately, an invertible soft filter preserves what an unrestricted affine readout can recover, whereas dedicated erasure methods reduce prediction by newly fitted probes. Together, the results show why a whole-intervention comparison cannot by itself attribute generated behavior to the fitted matrix: analyze the complete transformation, hold shared components fixed, and test its output consequences directly.

Softmax Loss (SL) is widely applied in recommender systems (RS) and has demonstrated effectiveness. This work analyzes SL from a pairwise perspective, revealing two significant limitations: 1) the relationship between SL and conventional ranking metrics like DCG is not sufficiently tight; 2) SL is highly sensitive to false negative instances. Our analysis indicates that these limitations are primarily due to the use of the exponential function. To address these issues, this work extends SL to a new family of loss functions, termed Pairwise Softmax Loss (PSL), which replaces the exponential function in SL with other appropriate activation functions. While the revision is minimal, we highlight three merits of PSL: 1) it serves as a tighter surrogate for DCG with suitable activation functions; 2) it better balances data contributions; and 3) it acts as a specific BPR loss enhanced by Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). We further validate the effectiveness and robustness of PSL through empirical experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/IR-Benchmark.

Policies with similar mean returns can differ sharply in rare failures, yet estimating lower-tail conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) accurately can require many costly rollouts. When different conditional components of a stochastic workflow can be queried separately, we ask how to allocate a fixed evaluation budget to estimate a fixed policy's CVaR most accurately. We derive a tail influence for each queryable conditional law that aggregates how its uncertainty affects CVaR across every Bellman reuse. Its variance yields the fixed-design efficiency bound and the oracle Neyman allocation. Tail-Influence Sampling (TIS) estimates these influence scales from a pilot model and reallocates fresh queries toward kernels that matter most for the tail; a visitation-anchored variant protects against pilot underallocation. Under fixed dimension and a positive quantile margin, TIS attains oracle asymptotic variance and first-order MSE including pilot cost, while the anchored variant is within a factor two of the oracle. We also characterize an exact-grid regime in which tail- and mean-optimal allocations coincide. On CliffWalking, TIS reduces MSE by 41% versus learned occupancy and 76% versus complete rollouts at the same charged transition budget. In frozen language-model review workflows, anchored TIS beats an equally regularized mean-influence blend in 23 of 24 MMLU-Pro settings and reaches 2.4-3.4times lower MSE than rollouts on six-call FinQA reviews.

Existing metric learning losses can be categorized into two classes: pair-based and proxy-based losses. The former class can leverage fine-grained semantic relations between data points, but slows convergence in general due to its high training complexity. In contrast, the latter class enables fast and reliable convergence, but cannot consider the rich data-to-data relations. This paper presents a new proxy-based loss that takes advantages of both pair- and proxy-based methods and overcomes their limitations. Thanks to the use of proxies, our loss boosts the speed of convergence and is robust against noisy labels and outliers. At the same time, it allows embedding vectors of data to interact with each other in its gradients to exploit data-to-data relations. Our method is evaluated on four public benchmarks, where a standard network trained with our loss achieves state-of-the-art performance and most quickly converges.

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

User targeting, the process of selecting targeted users from a pool of candidates for non-expert marketers, has garnered substantial attention with the advancements in digital marketing. However, existing user targeting methods encounter two significant challenges: (i) Poor cross-domain and cross-scenario transferability and generalization, and (ii) Insufficient forecastability in real-world applications. These limitations hinder their applicability across diverse industrial scenarios. In this work, we propose FOUND, an industrial-grade, transferable, and forecastable user targeting foundation model. To enhance cross-domain transferability, our framework integrates heterogeneous multi-scenario user data, aligning them with one-sentence targeting demand inputs through contrastive pre-training. For improved forecastability, the text description of each user is derived based on anticipated future behaviors, while user representations are constructed from historical information. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing baselines in cross-domain, real-world user targeting scenarios, showcasing the superior capabilities of FOUND. Moreover, our method has been successfully deployed on the Alipay platform and is widely utilized across various scenarios.

Deep learning algorithms can fare poorly when the training dataset suffers from heavy class-imbalance but the testing criterion requires good generalization on less frequent classes. We design two novel methods to improve performance in such scenarios. First, we propose a theoretically-principled label-distribution-aware margin (LDAM) loss motivated by minimizing a margin-based generalization bound. This loss replaces the standard cross-entropy objective during training and can be applied with prior strategies for training with class-imbalance such as re-weighting or re-sampling. Second, we propose a simple, yet effective, training schedule that defers re-weighting until after the initial stage, allowing the model to learn an initial representation while avoiding some of the complications associated with re-weighting or re-sampling. We test our methods on several benchmark vision tasks including the real-world imbalanced dataset iNaturalist 2018. Our experiments show that either of these methods alone can already improve over existing techniques and their combination achieves even better performance gains.

Weight-normalized (WN) training is emerging as a compelling alternative to conventional weight decay (WD), with recent studies reporting substantial pretraining loss gains. We show that these gains are driven primarily by the induced effective learning rate (ELR) trajectory rather than by normalization alone. Matching ELR trajectories largely collapses the training loss dynamics of WN and WD. Schedule design should therefore target ELR rather than the nominal learning rate (LR) alone. Building on this principle, we propose AIR (Affine Inverse-square-Root decay), which combines a theoretically derived 1/t decay with an affine adjustment to satisfy prescribed peak and terminal LRs over a finite training horizon. We further identify late-stage ELR scheduling as a key source of its gains, because a shared late schedule attenuates the effect of earlier LR choices. Experiments on 128 B-token Mixture-of-Experts pretraining demonstrate that AIR outperforms cosine and other candidate schedules in training loss, downstream performance, and hyperparameter robustness, reducing terminal training loss by approximately 0.01 relative to cosine at matched cumulative LR. Applying the same ELR trajectory to WD reproduces the corresponding training dynamics, showing that the benefits extend beyond fixed-norm training and establishing ELR as the principled scheduling object.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Deep hedging learns trading policies from historical or simulated market trajectories, yet under nonstationarity these training paths may not represent future market conditions. We propose WRAP (Wasserstein-Reweighting Adversarial Perturbation), a drift-aware adversarial training framework derived from a two-budget distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation. The formulation is anchored to a weighted empirical reference distribution whose fixed baseline weights are chosen to balance sampling uncertainty against temporal drift. Around this reference distribution, the ambiguity set addresses two complementary forms of distributional misspecification by allowing an adversary to reweight the observed trajectories subject to a ϕ-divergence constraint and perturb their paths subject to an optimal-transport (OT) constraint. We derive a joint first-order expansion in which the leading-order increase over the nominal expected loss decomposes into a reweighting contribution determined by the dispersion of hedging losses across trajectories and a transport contribution determined by the sensitivity of the loss to path perturbations. This expansion yields an explicit finite-dimensional adversarial attack that replaces the distributional inner supremum with a tractable first-order approximation. Across stationary and nonstationary Heston dynamics and a generalized affine diffusion (GAD), the experiments show complementary benefits from reweighting and transport, with joint adversarial training providing the largest gains under nonstationarity.

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

In a typical multi-label setting, a picture contains on average few positive labels, and many negative ones. This positive-negative imbalance dominates the optimization process, and can lead to under-emphasizing gradients from positive labels during training, resulting in poor accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a novel asymmetric loss ("ASL"), which operates differently on positive and negative samples. The loss enables to dynamically down-weights and hard-thresholds easy negative samples, while also discarding possibly mislabeled samples. We demonstrate how ASL can balance the probabilities of different samples, and how this balancing is translated to better mAP scores. With ASL, we reach state-of-the-art results on multiple popular multi-label datasets: MS-COCO, Pascal-VOC, NUS-WIDE and Open Images. We also demonstrate ASL applicability for other tasks, such as single-label classification and object detection. ASL is effective, easy to implement, and does not increase the training time or complexity. Implementation is available at: https://github.com/Alibaba-MIIL/ASL.