Daily Papers

Universality is a key hypothesis in mechanistic interpretability -- that different models learn similar features and circuits when trained on similar tasks. In this work, we study the universality hypothesis by examining how small neural networks learn to implement group composition. We present a novel algorithm by which neural networks may implement composition for any finite group via mathematical representation theory. We then show that networks consistently learn this algorithm by reverse engineering model logits and weights, and confirm our understanding using ablations. By studying networks of differing architectures trained on various groups, we find mixed evidence for universality: using our algorithm, we can completely characterize the family of circuits and features that networks learn on this task, but for a given network the precise circuits learned -- as well as the order they develop -- are arbitrary.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

This paper presents the first numerical realization of Suzuki's Weil-Quadratic-Form operator, a candidate for the Hilbert--Pólya program linking spectral positivity to the Riemann Hypothesis (RH). Suzuki's 2026 construction was purely theoretical; here, the operator is instantiated via P1 finite-element discretization and Richardson extrapolation. Key results include: (R1) In the prime-free regime, the spectrum follows a closed Archimedean law A_k(a) = log(1/a) + log(k-2) + B_0 + O(a), with B_0 = log q - 2log 2, confirmed to 30-digit precision. (R2) A Mellin double-pole argument proves the head coefficient B(ν) and shows B_0 depends only on the conductor q, independent of the Archimedean parameter. (R2b) The degree d of an L-function appears directly as the logarithmic slope of the spectrum. (R3) Total spectral intensity follows the prime number theorem, S(a) sim (2a)^3/6. (R4) Nontrivial zeros are not eigenvalues but occur in the explicit-formula error term of the prime symbol. (R5) The best-match line σ^*(a) descends toward the critical line. (R6) Weil's positivity criterion is realized in operator form: bounded residual growth corresponds to all zeros on the line, while an injected off-line zero causes exponential blow-up. (R7) The lowest eigenvalue λ_1(a) is strictly positive, decays superexponentially, and passes smoothly through the first prime threshold. (R8) The characteristic function W(a,0;z) is computed for the first time, with all zeros confirmed real. (R9) Indirect traces of GUE statistics appear in the moment structure, even where direct detection is blocked. The authors emphasize that this work does not prove RH. All results are Archimedean and universal, with significance lying in the faithful numerical realization of classical identities rather than new arithmetic.

A basic question within the emerging field of mechanistic interpretability is the degree to which neural networks learn the same underlying mechanisms. In other words, are neural mechanisms universal across different models? In this work, we study the universality of individual neurons across GPT2 models trained from different initial random seeds, motivated by the hypothesis that universal neurons are likely to be interpretable. In particular, we compute pairwise correlations of neuron activations over 100 million tokens for every neuron pair across five different seeds and find that 1-5\% of neurons are universal, that is, pairs of neurons which consistently activate on the same inputs. We then study these universal neurons in detail, finding that they usually have clear interpretations and taxonomize them into a small number of neuron families. We conclude by studying patterns in neuron weights to establish several universal functional roles of neurons in simple circuits: deactivating attention heads, changing the entropy of the next token distribution, and predicting the next token to (not) be within a particular set.

Shepard's universal law of generalization is a remarkable hypothesis about how intelligent organisms should perceive similarity. In its broadest form, the universal law states that the level of perceived similarity between a pair of stimuli should decay as a concave function of their distance when embedded in an appropriate psychological space. While extensively studied, evidence in support of the universal law has relied on low-dimensional stimuli and small stimulus sets that are very different from their real-world counterparts. This is largely because pairwise comparisons -- as required for similarity judgments -- scale quadratically in the number of stimuli. We provide direct evidence for the universal law in a naturalistic high-dimensional regime by analyzing an existing dataset of 214,200 human similarity judgments and a newly collected dataset of 390,819 human generalization judgments (N=2406 US participants) across three sets of natural images.

The uniform information density (UID) hypothesis states that humans tend to distribute information roughly evenly across an utterance or discourse. Early evidence in support of the UID hypothesis came from Genzel & Charniak (2002), which proposed an entropy rate constancy principle based on the probability of English text under n-gram language models. We re-evaluate the claims of Genzel & Charniak (2002) with neural language models, failing to find clear evidence in support of entropy rate constancy. We conduct a range of experiments across datasets, model sizes, and languages and discuss implications for the uniform information density hypothesis and linguistic theories of efficient communication more broadly.

The lottery ticket hypothesis conjectures the existence of sparse subnetworks of large randomly initialized deep neural networks that can be successfully trained in isolation. Recent work has experimentally observed that some of these tickets can be practically reused across a variety of tasks, hinting at some form of universality. We formalize this concept and theoretically prove that not only do such universal tickets exist but they also do not require further training. Our proofs introduce a couple of technical innovations related to pruning for strong lottery tickets, including extensions of subset sum results and a strategy to leverage higher amounts of depth. Our explicit sparse constructions of universal function families might be of independent interest, as they highlight representational benefits induced by univariate convolutional architectures.

Several machine learning models are defined for inputs of any size, such as graphs with different numbers of nodes and point clouds containing varying numbers of points. The universality properties of such any-dimensional models remain poorly understood, as universality is traditionally studied for models accepting inputs of a fixed size, defined on a compact subset of their domain. In sharp contrast, any-dimensional models can be viewed as sequences of functions defined on growing-sized inputs, and it is not clear in which sense they can be universal. We develop a systematic approach to establish any-dimensional universality, by identifying any-dimensional functions with a unique function taking inputs in a suitable infinite-dimensional limit space containing inputs of all finite sizes as well as their limits. Using the symmetries of these inputs and relations between inputs of different sizes, we show that this limit space admits a natural topology with rich families of compact sets on which any-dimensional universality can be established. We illustrate our approach by showing that several existing architectures fail to be universal, and we propose simple modifications that restore universality.

As in statistical physics, the concept of universality plays an important, albeit qualitative, role in the field of comparative mythology. Here we apply statistical mechanical tools to analyse the networks underlying three iconic mythological narratives with a view to identifying common and distinguishing quantitative features. Of the three narratives, an Anglo-Saxon and a Greek text are mostly believed by antiquarians to be partly historically based while the third, an Irish epic, is often considered to be fictional. Here we show that network analysis is able to discriminate real from imaginary social networks and place mythological narratives on the spectrum between them. Moreover, the perceived artificiality of the Irish narrative can be traced back to anomalous features associated with six characters. Considering these as amalgams of several entities or proxies, renders the plausibility of the Irish text comparable to the others from a network-theoretic point of view.

In previous work universal behavior was conjectured for the behavior of the logarithmic terms in the entanglement entropy of intervals in 1+1 dimensional interface conformal field theories (ICFTs). These putative universal terms were exhibited both in free field theories as well as a large class of holographic models. In this work we demonstrate that this same behavior in fact is realized in any holographic ICFT, significantly strengthening the case for the conjecture.

The Universal Approximation Theorem posits that neural networks can theoretically possess unlimited approximation capacity with a suitable activation function and a freely chosen or trained set of parameters. However, a more practical scenario arises when these neural parameters, especially the nonlinear weights and biases, are bounded. This leads us to question: Does the approximation capacity of a neural network remain universal, or does it have a limit when the parameters are practically bounded? And if it has a limit, how can it be measured? Our theoretical study indicates that while universal approximation is theoretically feasible, in practical numerical scenarios, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with any analytic activation functions (such as Tanh and Sigmoid) can only be approximated by a finite-dimensional vector space under a bounded nonlinear parameter space (NP space), whether in a continuous or discrete sense. Based on this study, we introduce the concepts of ε outer measure and Numerical Span Dimension (NSdim) to quantify the approximation capacity limit of a family of networks both theoretically and practically. Furthermore, drawing on our new theoretical study and adopting a fresh perspective, we strive to understand the relationship between back-propagation neural networks and random parameter networks (such as the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)) with both finite and infinite width. We also aim to provide fresh insights into regularization, the trade-off between width and depth, parameter space, width redundancy, condensation, and other related important issues.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

We investigate feature universality in large language models (LLMs), a research field that aims to understand how different models similarly represent concepts in the latent spaces of their intermediate layers. Demonstrating feature universality allows discoveries about latent representations to generalize across several models. However, comparing features across LLMs is challenging due to polysemanticity, in which individual neurons often correspond to multiple features rather than distinct ones. This makes it difficult to disentangle and match features across different models. To address this issue, we employ a method known as dictionary learning by using sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to transform LLM activations into more interpretable spaces spanned by neurons corresponding to individual features. After matching feature neurons across models via activation correlation, we apply representational space similarity metrics like Singular Value Canonical Correlation Analysis to analyze these SAE features across different LLMs. Our experiments reveal significant similarities in SAE feature spaces across various LLMs, providing new evidence for feature universality.

A recurrent neural network (RNN) is a widely used deep-learning network for dealing with sequential data. Imitating a dynamical system, an infinite-width RNN can approximate any open dynamical system in a compact domain. In general, deep networks with bounded widths are more effective than wide networks in practice; however, the universal approximation theorem for deep narrow structures has yet to be extensively studied. In this study, we prove the universality of deep narrow RNNs and show that the upper bound of the minimum width for universality can be independent of the length of the data. Specifically, we show that a deep RNN with ReLU activation can approximate any continuous function or L^p function with the widths d_x+d_y+2 and max{d_x+1,d_y}, respectively, where the target function maps a finite sequence of vectors in R^{d_x} to a finite sequence of vectors in R^{d_y}. We also compute the additional width required if the activation function is tanh or more. In addition, we prove the universality of other recurrent networks, such as bidirectional RNNs. Bridging a multi-layer perceptron and an RNN, our theory and proof technique can be an initial step toward further research on deep RNNs.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We develop a Gaussian comparison theory for posterior inference in non-Gaussian high-dimensional models. The framework allows for model misspecification and does not require the posterior distribution itself to be approximately Gaussian. Working directly with likelihood processes on separable function spaces, we establish explicit nonasymptotic free energy bounds controlled by first two moment discrepancies and local third moments. A perturbation-and-convexity argument transfers these comparisons to sandwich bounds for posterior mean squared error and posterior variance, including one-sided conclusions at nondifferentiable phase transitions. In high-dimensional product models, these conditions reduce to local moment controls and a canonical feature-radius scaling. Under weak regularity requirements, the resulting universality theory applies to a broad class of likelihood models, ranging from exponential families to more general regular local log-likelihoods. The framework is illustrated on sparse Bernoulli hypergraph inference.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that representations from neural networks are converging to a common statistical model of reality. We show that the existing metrics used to measure representational similarity are confounded by network scale: increasing model depth or width can systematically inflate representational similarity scores. To correct these effects, we introduce a permutation-based null-calibration framework that transforms any representational similarity metric into a calibrated score with statistical guarantees. We revisit the Platonic Representation Hypothesis with our calibration framework, which reveals a nuanced picture: the apparent convergence reported by global spectral measures largely disappears after calibration, while local neighborhood similarity, but not local distances, retains significant agreement across different modalities. Based on these findings, we propose the Aristotelian Representation Hypothesis: representations in neural networks are converging to shared local neighborhood relationships.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Cognitive neuroscience is enjoying rapid increase in extensive public brain-imaging datasets. It opens the door to large-scale statistical models. Finding a unified perspective for all available data calls for scalable and automated solutions to an old challenge: how to aggregate heterogeneous information on brain function into a universal cognitive system that relates mental operations/cognitive processes/psychological tasks to brain networks? We cast this challenge in a machine-learning approach to predict conditions from statistical brain maps across different studies. For this, we leverage multi-task learning and multi-scale dimension reduction to learn low-dimensional representations of brain images that carry cognitive information and can be robustly associated with psychological stimuli. Our multi-dataset classification model achieves the best prediction performance on several large reference datasets, compared to models without cognitive-aware low-dimension representations, it brings a substantial performance boost to the analysis of small datasets, and can be introspected to identify universal template cognitive concepts.

Within the limited scope of this paper, we argue that artificial general intelligence cannot emerge from current neural network paradigms regardless of scale, nor is such an approach healthy for the field at present. Drawing on various notions, discussions, present-day developments and observations, current debates and critiques, experiments, and so on in between philosophy, including the Chinese Room Argument and Gödelian argument, neuroscientific ideas, computer science, the theoretical consideration of artificial intelligence, and learning theory, we address conceptually that neural networks are architecturally insufficient for genuine understanding. They operate as static function approximators of a limited encoding framework - a 'sophisticated sponge' exhibiting complex behaviours without structural richness that constitute intelligence. We critique the theoretical foundations the field relies on and created of recent times; for example, an interesting heuristic as neural scaling law (as an example, arXiv:2001.08361 ) made prominent in a wrong way of interpretation, The Universal Approximation Theorem addresses the wrong level of abstraction and, in parts, partially, the question of current architectures lacking dynamic restructuring capabilities. We propose a framework distinguishing existential facilities (computational substrate) from architectural organization (interpretive structures), and outline principles for what genuine machine intelligence would require, and furthermore, a conceptual method of structuralizing the richer framework on which the principle of neural network system takes hold.

Neural scaling laws describe how pre-training loss decays as power laws with training time, model size, and compute. This position paper argues that the exponents of these power laws are fixed by generic mechanisms: a one-third time scaling due to the strong nonlinearity of Softmax, an inverse width scaling due to representational superposition, and an inverse depth scaling due to ensemble averaging of Transformer layers. These mechanisms are robust to a wide range of data structures and architectural details, placing current large language models in a universality class with fixed exponents. The coefficients, however, are expected to be sensitive to data and architecture details, and directly determine practical quantities such as the optimal model shape and the compute-optimal frontier. We therefore argue that understanding the coefficients is the key to near-term performance improvements, and that a closer examination of the current universality class may reveal pathways to better universality classes.

The lottery ticket hypothesis (Frankle and Carbin, 2018), states that a randomly-initialized network contains a small subnetwork such that, when trained in isolation, can compete with the performance of the original network. We prove an even stronger hypothesis (as was also conjectured in Ramanujan et al., 2019), showing that for every bounded distribution and every target network with bounded weights, a sufficiently over-parameterized neural network with random weights contains a subnetwork with roughly the same accuracy as the target network, without any further training.

Minimal Phenomenal Experiences (MPEs) are states of consciousness in which wakefulness is preserved but phenomenal content is low or absent. The Entropic Brain Hypothesis (EBH) is a model of conscious processes that regards the entropy of spontaneous brain activity as a marker of 'phenomenal richness', exemplified by high-content psychedelic experiences (HCPEs). Yet recent human neuroimaging studies of MPEs induced by meditation -- and possibly 5-MeO-DMT -- suggest that these states, defined by their phenomenological simplicity, also show signs of increased neurophysiological entropy. This presents a conundrum for the EBH: brain entropy is elevated with increased and decreased richness of the phenomenal experience. Here, we put forward the Complex Brain Hypothesis (CBH), which proposes that the richness of experience differentiating MPEs from HCPEs is better indexed by complexity than by entropy. We argue that brain complexity is modulated by the grain of inference through which the brain resolves uncertainty: some HCPEs exemplify a fine-grained regime, in which loosened constraints amplify fluctuations into proliferating content, whereas some MPEs exemplify a coarse-grained regime, in which a simpler model dissolves variety into an experience of 'contentless' awareness. Both regimes can be associated with elevated brain entropy, but they diverge in phenomenology and perturbational signatures. By resolving the entropy-content conundrum, the CBH refines the EBH and highlights MPEs as an important test case for computational theories of consciousness.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) holds that as models scale, representations of heterogeneous networks converge toward a shared model of reality. We propose its sequel and boundary, the Capability Convergence Hypothesis (CCH): under a fixed per-token inference budget, representational convergence does not entail capability convergence. Capability instead converges toward a class, the access-complete hybrid: any architecture holding both a compressive O(1)-state channel and a scalable verbatim-index channel. We anchor it on a witness task, the Newton's-apple problem in an infinite stream, and name three resource walls: a Shannon wall barring any o(Nb)-state architecture, a horizon wall barring any fixed window, and a circuit wall barring fixed-depth attention-only composition (conditional on TC0 != NC1). Under an explicit separability assumption a hybrid crosses all three by paying each wall's price, so capability is strictly super-additive under composition. We separate what we prove from what we conjecture: the access-completeness principle rests on information-theoretic lower bounds and pre-registered experiments, while the field-level convergence trend is an economics-motivated conjecture. We report the first pre-registered small-scale tests under criteria frozen before the data: the predicted scissors gap is measured (exact-retrieval error 0.994 vs. 0.000 once a 64-scalar state gains one global-attention layer), the state-tracking bifurcation lands at the registered boundary, and a conjunction witness shows an irreducibly two-channel solution; one prediction failed with its direction reversed and is reported as such. Representational convergence is given freely by scale; capability convergence must be purchased by access structure.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis is a conjecture that every large neural network contains a subnetwork that, when trained in isolation, achieves comparable performance to the large network. An even stronger conjecture has been proven recently: Every sufficiently overparameterized network contains a subnetwork that, at random initialization, but without training, achieves comparable accuracy to the trained large network. This latter result, however, relies on a number of strong assumptions and guarantees a polynomial factor on the size of the large network compared to the target function. In this work, we remove the most limiting assumptions of this previous work while providing significantly tighter bounds:the overparameterized network only needs a logarithmic factor (in all variables but depth) number of neurons per weight of the target subnetwork.

Deep neural networks are often seen as different from other model classes by defying conventional notions of generalization. Popular examples of anomalous generalization behaviour include benign overfitting, double descent, and the success of overparametrization. We argue that these phenomena are not distinct to neural networks, or particularly mysterious. Moreover, this generalization behaviour can be intuitively understood, and rigorously characterized, using long-standing generalization frameworks such as PAC-Bayes and countable hypothesis bounds. We present soft inductive biases as a key unifying principle in explaining these phenomena: rather than restricting the hypothesis space to avoid overfitting, embrace a flexible hypothesis space, with a soft preference for simpler solutions that are consistent with the data. This principle can be encoded in many model classes, and thus deep learning is not as mysterious or different from other model classes as it might seem. However, we also highlight how deep learning is relatively distinct in other ways, such as its ability for representation learning, phenomena such as mode connectivity, and its relative universality.

We develop a bottom-up framework to reconstruct the asymptotic spectrum of light towers in four-dimensional N=1 effective field theories directly from their Kähler potential. Our construction uses the Integral Scaling Relation, which relates the mass scales of towers becoming light at infinite distance to the tensions of EFT strings, together with the Emergent String Conjecture applied recursively upon decompactification. These conditions organize the tower scaling vectors into a lattice generated by the EFT-string vectors and select the globally consistent tower polytopes. When applied to Kähler potentials arising from string compactifications, our algorithm precisely reproduces the known arrangements of towers and duality frames. We then classify the admissible polytopes for asymptotic Kähler potentials Ksim-log P(s), with P(s) a homogeneous polynomial of degree at most seven, and show that certain apparently consistent Kähler potentials are incompatible with the assumed quantum-gravity constraints. For general polynomials, additional restrictions arise from gluing the tower arrangements across different growth sectors. Remarkably, every tower polytope allowed by our reconstruction can be obtained as a concrete slice of the polytope associated with M-theory on a Joyce G_2-manifold. This provides evidence for a form of string universality in which EFT strings act as the fundamental building blocks of the UV tower structure in the EFT perturbative regimes.

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis predicts that sufficiently scaled foundation models converge on a shared representation of the world. As each non-converged model gives a noisy view of a common structure when passed the same input, we ask whether we can combine models into a representation that outperforms its individual components. We test this on galaxies: we embed images via a basket of 22 frozen foundation models from eight families, whiten each view, and take a randomised SVD of the embedding concatenation. The resulting 1024-dimensional embedding outperforms every basket member on 19/21 of our tested metrics for physical property and galaxy morphology estimation for HSC, JWST, and DESI Legacy Survey imagery. We find that performance rises with basket size and basket architectural diversity, and that the meta-foundation model's performance transfers across astronomical surveys. We conclude that a useful astronomical foundation model can be assembled from existing generalist models with no training required beyond a single unsupervised projection. By leveraging the community's already-spent work, we save a lot of compute: a fresh pre-train of a comparable single-domain model would cost O(10^{4}--10^{5}) A100 GPU hours (emitting several tonnes of CO_2eq.), whereas assembling Gestalt requires minutes on a single machine.

In this paper, we make the case that a scientific theory of deep learning is emerging. By this we mean a theory which characterizes important properties and statistics of the training process, hidden representations, final weights, and performance of neural networks. We pull together major strands of ongoing research in deep learning theory and identify five growing bodies of work that point toward such a theory: (a) solvable idealized settings that provide intuition for learning dynamics in realistic systems; (b) tractable limits that reveal insights into fundamental learning phenomena; (c) simple mathematical laws that capture important macroscopic observables; (d) theories of hyperparameters that disentangle them from the rest of the training process, leaving simpler systems behind; and (e) universal behaviors shared across systems and settings which clarify which phenomena call for explanation. Taken together, these bodies of work share certain broad traits: they are concerned with the dynamics of the training process; they primarily seek to describe coarse aggregate statistics; and they emphasize falsifiable quantitative predictions. We argue that the emerging theory is best thought of as a mechanics of the learning process, and suggest the name learning mechanics. We discuss the relationship between this mechanics perspective and other approaches for building a theory of deep learning, including the statistical and information-theoretic perspectives. In particular, we anticipate a symbiotic relationship between learning mechanics and mechanistic interpretability. We also review and address common arguments that fundamental theory will not be possible or is not important. We conclude with a portrait of important open directions in learning mechanics and advice for beginners. We host further introductory materials, perspectives, and open questions at learningmechanics.pub.

Some things are impossible, but some things may be even more impossible than impossible. Levitating a feather using one's mind is impossible in our world, but fits into our intuitive theories of possible worlds, whereas levitating a feather using the number five cannot be conceived in any possible world ("inconceivable"). While prior work has examined the distinction between improbable and impossible events, there has been little empirical research on inconceivability. Here, we investigate whether people maintain a distinction between impossibility and inconceivability, and how such distinctions might be made. We find that people can readily distinguish the impossible from the inconceivable, using categorization studies similar to those used to investigate the differences between impossible and improbable (Experiment 1). However, this distinction is not explained by people's subjective ratings of event likelihood, which are near zero and indistinguishable between impossible and inconceivable event descriptions (Experiment 2). Finally, we ask whether the probabilities assigned to event descriptions by statistical language models (LMs) can be used to separate modal categories, and whether these probabilities align with people's ratings (Experiment 3). We find high-level similarities between people and LMs: both distinguish among impossible and inconceivable event descriptions, and LM-derived string probabilities predict people's ratings of event likelihood across modal categories. Our findings suggest that fine-grained knowledge about exceedingly rare events (i.e., the impossible and inconceivable) may be learned via statistical learning over linguistic forms, yet leave open the question of whether people represent the distinction between impossible and inconceivable as a difference not of degree, but of kind.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Meta-learning has emerged as a powerful approach to train neural networks to learn new tasks quickly from limited data. Broad exposure to different tasks leads to versatile representations enabling general problem solving. But, what are the limits of meta-learning? In this work, we explore the potential of amortizing the most powerful universal predictor, namely Solomonoff Induction (SI), into neural networks via leveraging meta-learning to its limits. We use Universal Turing Machines (UTMs) to generate training data used to expose networks to a broad range of patterns. We provide theoretical analysis of the UTM data generation processes and meta-training protocols. We conduct comprehensive experiments with neural architectures (e.g. LSTMs, Transformers) and algorithmic data generators of varying complexity and universality. Our results suggest that UTM data is a valuable resource for meta-learning, and that it can be used to train neural networks capable of learning universal prediction strategies.

In this note, we elaborate on and explain in detail the proof given by Ziyin et al. (2025) of the ``perfect" Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) for the embedded deep linear network model (EDLN). We show that if trained with the stochastic gradient descent (SGD), two EDLNs with different widths and depths and trained on different data will become Perfectly Platonic, meaning that every possible pair of layers will learn the same representation up to a rotation. Because most of the global minima of the loss function are not Platonic, that SGD only finds the perfectly Platonic solution is rather extraordinary. The proof also suggests at least six ways the PRH can be broken. We also show that in the EDLN model, the emergence of the Platonic representations is due to the same reason as the emergence of progressive sharpening. This implies that these two seemingly unrelated phenomena in deep learning can, surprisingly, have a common cause. Overall, the theory and proof highlight the importance of understanding emergent "entropic forces" due to the irreversibility of SGD training and their role in representation learning. The goal of this note is to be instructive while avoiding jargon and lengthy technical details.

Scaling up language models has been shown to predictably improve performance and sample efficiency on a wide range of downstream tasks. This paper instead discusses an unpredictable phenomenon that we refer to as emergent abilities of large language models. We consider an ability to be emergent if it is not present in smaller models but is present in larger models. Thus, emergent abilities cannot be predicted simply by extrapolating the performance of smaller models. The existence of such emergence implies that additional scaling could further expand the range of capabilities of language models.

With the development in cognitive science and Large Language Models (LLMs), increasing connections have come to light between these two distinct fields. Building upon these connections, we propose a conjecture suggesting the existence of a duality between LLMs and Tulving's theory of memory. We identify a potential correspondence between Tulving's synergistic ecphory model (SEM) of retrieval and the emergent abilities observed in LLMs, serving as supporting evidence for our conjecture. Furthermore, we speculate that consciousness may be considered a form of emergent ability based on this duality. We also discuss how other theories of consciousness intersect with our research.

The manifold hypothesis, which assumes that data lies on or close to an unknown manifold of low intrinsic dimension, is a staple of modern machine learning research. However, recent work has shown that real-world data exhibits distinct non-manifold structures, i.e. singularities, that can lead to erroneous findings. Detecting such singularities is therefore crucial as a precursor to interpolation and inference tasks. We address this issue by developing a topological framework that (i) quantifies the local intrinsic dimension, and (ii) yields a Euclidicity score for assessing the 'manifoldness' of a point along multiple scales. Our approach identifies singularities of complex spaces, while also capturing singular structures and local geometric complexity in image data.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, this "universal" law provides only a necessary condition for robustness, and it is unable to discriminate between models. In this paper, we address these gaps by focusing on empirical risk minimization in two prototypical settings, namely, random features and the neural tangent kernel (NTK). We prove that, for random features, the model is not robust for any degree of over-parameterization, even when the necessary condition coming from the universal law of robustness is satisfied. In contrast, for even activations, the NTK model meets the universal lower bound, and it is robust as soon as the necessary condition on over-parameterization is fulfilled. This also addresses a conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li and Nagaraj. Our analysis decouples the effect of the kernel of the model from an "interaction matrix", which describes the interaction with the test data and captures the effect of the activation. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical evidence on both synthetic and standard datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10).

Autonomous neural systems must efficiently process information in a wide range of novel environments, which may have very different statistical properties. We consider the problem of how to optimally distribute receptors along a one-dimensional continuum consistent with the following design principles. First, neural representations of the world should obey a neural uncertainty principle---making as few assumptions as possible about the statistical structure of the world. Second, neural representations should convey, as much as possible, equivalent information about environments with different statistics. The results of these arguments resemble the structure of the visual system and provide a natural explanation of the behavioral Weber-Fechner law, a foundational result in psychology. Because the derivation is extremely general, this suggests that similar scaling relationships should be observed not only in sensory continua, but also in neural representations of ``cognitive' one-dimensional quantities such as time or numerosity.

The study of universal approximation properties (UAP) for neural networks (NN) has a long history. When the network width is unlimited, only a single hidden layer is sufficient for UAP. In contrast, when the depth is unlimited, the width for UAP needs to be not less than the critical width w^*_{min}=max(d_x,d_y), where d_x and d_y are the dimensions of the input and output, respectively. Recently, cai2022achieve shows that a leaky-ReLU NN with this critical width can achieve UAP for L^p functions on a compact domain K, i.e., the UAP for L^p(K,R^{d_y}). This paper examines a uniform UAP for the function class C(K,R^{d_y}) and gives the exact minimum width of the leaky-ReLU NN as w_{min}=max(d_x+1,d_y)+1_{d_y=d_x+1}, which involves the effects of the output dimensions. To obtain this result, we propose a novel lift-flow-discretization approach that shows that the uniform UAP has a deep connection with topological theory.

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.

The Lottery Ticket hypothesis proposes that ideal, sparse subnetworks, called lottery tickets, exist in untrained dense neural networks. The Early Bird hypothesis proposes an efficient algorithm to find these winning lottery tickets in convolutional neural networks, using the novel concept of distance between subnetworks to detect convergence in the subnetworks of a model. However, this approach overlooks unchanging groups of unimportant neurons near the search's end. We proposes WORM, a method that exploits these static groups by truncating their gradients, forcing the model to rely on other neurons. Experiments show WORM achieves faster ticket identification during training on convolutional neural networks, despite the additional computational overhead, when compared to EarlyBird search. Additionally, WORM-pruned models lose less accuracy during pruning and recover accuracy faster, improving the robustness of a given model. Furthermore, WORM is also able to generalize the Early Bird hypothesis reasonably well to larger models, such as transformers, displaying its flexibility to adapt to more complex architectures.

Models for learning probability distributions such as generative models and density estimators behave quite differently from models for learning functions. One example is found in the memorization phenomenon, namely the ultimate convergence to the empirical distribution, that occurs in generative adversarial networks (GANs). For this reason, the issue of generalization is more subtle than that for supervised learning. For the bias potential model, we show that dimension-independent generalization accuracy is achievable if early stopping is adopted, despite that in the long term, the model either memorizes the samples or diverges.

Much research has been carried out on large language models (LLMs) and LLM-powered agentic workflows. However, many works within the field state emergence of, ascribe to, or assume, generalised anthropomorphic attributes to them (e.g., morality or understanding of natural language). Our goal is not to argue in favour or against the existence of these attributes, but to point out that these conclusions could be incorrect. For this we build and train a simple neural network on the videogame Age of Empires II, and note that any entity in a sufficiently-powerful substrate, such as LEGO or the Greater Boston Area, could also present such attributes. Hence, the purported anthropomorphic attributes of LLMs are empirically non-unique: although some properties (e.g., responses to prompts) could remain invariant, others, such as the interpretation of their perceived behaviour, might change with the substrate. Thus, any empirically-grounded discussion on these attributes requires explicit measurement criteria; otherwise the interpretation is left to the representation. We then show that assuming that these attributes exist or not in a system, independent of the substrate and in a generalised way, leads to either circular or uninformative conclusions. This is regardless of the experimenter's viewpoint on the subject, or whether the outcome shows existence or non-existence. Finally we propose a 'null' assumption, where one assumes LLM non-uniqueness instead of assuming anthropomorphic attributes to set up an experiment, along with examples of it. We also discuss potential objections to our work, briefly survey the field, and prove that Age of Empires II is functionally- and Turing-complete.

Artificial intelligence has made great strides in the last decade but still falls short of the human brain, the best-known example of intelligence. Not much is known of the neural processes that allow the brain to make the leap to achieve so much from so little beyond its ability to create knowledge structures that can be flexibly and dynamically combined, recombined, and applied in new and novel ways. This paper proposes a mathematical approach using graph theory and spectral graph theory, to hypothesize how to constrain these neural clusters of information based on eigen-relationships. This same hypothesis is hierarchically applied to scale up from the smallest to the largest clusters of knowledge that eventually lead to model building and reasoning.

There is a concerted effort to build domain-general artificial intelligence in the form of universal neural network models with sufficient computational flexibility to solve a wide variety of cognitive tasks but without requiring fine-tuning on individual problem spaces and domains. To do this, models need appropriate priors and inductive biases, such that trained models can generalise to out-of-distribution examples and new problem sets. Here we provide an overview of the hallmarks endowing biological neural networks with the functionality needed for flexible cognition, in order to establish which features might also be important to achieve similar functionality in artificial systems. We specifically discuss the role of system-level distribution of network communication and recurrence, in addition to the role of short-term topological changes for efficient local computation. As machine learning models become more complex, these principles may provide valuable directions in an otherwise vast space of possible architectures. In addition, testing these inductive biases within artificial systems may help us to understand the biological principles underlying domain-general cognition.

Invertible neural networks based on coupling flows (CF-INNs) have various machine learning applications such as image synthesis and representation learning. However, their desirable characteristics such as analytic invertibility come at the cost of restricting the functional forms. This poses a question on their representation power: are CF-INNs universal approximators for invertible functions? Without a universality, there could be a well-behaved invertible transformation that the CF-INN can never approximate, hence it would render the model class unreliable. We answer this question by showing a convenient criterion: a CF-INN is universal if its layers contain affine coupling and invertible linear functions as special cases. As its corollary, we can affirmatively resolve a previously unsolved problem: whether normalizing flow models based on affine coupling can be universal distributional approximators. In the course of proving the universality, we prove a general theorem to show the equivalence of the universality for certain diffeomorphism classes, a theoretical insight that is of interest by itself.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.

Test-time scaling has enabled LLMs to solve increasingly complex reasoning, discovery, and optimization tasks. However, existing approaches often gather observations while seeking evidence for current hypotheses, then generate new hypotheses conditioned on those hypotheses and their associated evidence. This couples observation discovery to existing hypotheses, favoring local refinements over exploration of unknown hypotheses regions. Inspired by the hypothetico-deductive method (Hempel, 1945) and dual-space models of scientific discovery (Klahr & Dunbar, 1988), we introduce SHELDON, a scientific reasoning harness that separately represents and jointly explores hypothesis and observation spaces. By actively seeking new observations along with new hypotheses, SHELDON can discover observations that its current hypotheses do not explain. These unexplained observations expose gaps in its understanding, motivate new investigations, and guide the generation of hypotheses beyond refinements of existing ones. Across diagnosis, abstract reasoning, and optimization benchmarks, SHELDON outperforms evaluated baselines by up to 26.7 points. Additional analysis shows that SHELDON generates up to 4.5x more novel solutions.

The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (LTH) states that a dense neural network model contains a highly sparse subnetwork (i.e., winning tickets) that can achieve even better performance than the original model when trained in isolation. While LTH has been proved both empirically and theoretically in many works, there still are some open issues, such as efficiency and scalability, to be addressed. Also, the lack of open-source frameworks and consensual experimental setting poses a challenge to future research on LTH. We, for the first time, examine previous research and studies on LTH from different perspectives. We also discuss issues in existing works and list potential directions for further exploration. This survey aims to provide an in-depth look at the state of LTH and develop a duly maintained platform to conduct experiments and compare with the most updated baselines.

The Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH) states that neural networks learn to encode concepts as directions in activation space, and a strong version of the LRH states that models learn only such encodings. In this paper, we present a counterexample to this strong LRH: when trained to repeat an input token sequence, gated recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learn to represent the token at each position with a particular order of magnitude, rather than a direction. These representations have layered features that are impossible to locate in distinct linear subspaces. To show this, we train interventions to predict and manipulate tokens by learning the scaling factor corresponding to each sequence position. These interventions indicate that the smallest RNNs find only this magnitude-based solution, while larger RNNs have linear representations. These findings strongly indicate that interpretability research should not be confined by the LRH.

To make claims about representations that generalize beyond a particular trained model, we need to specify when two representations should count as equivalent. The Linear Representation Hypothesis is often discussed without making this equivalence explicit. Different notions of equivalence preserve different structures, so metrics, probes, and interventions that appear to study the same representation may in fact correspond to different hypotheses. We therefore argue that the Linear Representation Hypothesis is not one hypothesis but a family of claims distinguished by representation equivalence. We formalize this idea using group actions, specifying the representation object, the procedure that produces it, and the property ultimately asserted, while accounting for equivalences imposed by the model architecture. This framework clarifies how assumptions can change across metrics, reading points, and analysis stages, and we use it to audit common representation quantities and recent interpretability analyses.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We study how the similarity of individuals' information shapes collective action. When people draw on a common source of information, such as social media, each becomes more confident about what others have seen and will do. This can help them coordinate, but it can also tempt them to free-ride. We show that which force prevails depends on how demanding the collective goal is. In a content-moderation experiment, subjects decide whether to pay a cost to report harmful content, which is removed only if enough reports are received. We vary the similarity of group members' information, holding fixed what each learns on her own, and independently vary the removal threshold. More similar information impedes reporting when few reports suffice and facilitates it when many are required, lowering reporting by 17 percentage points under an easy threshold and raising it by 34 points under a demanding one. This confirms the central comparative static of the theory of information similarity (Basak, Deb and Kuvalekar, 2026). Elicited beliefs trace the reversal to perceived pivotality and document systematic miscalibration of it. Subjects overestimate pivotality across all regimes, and their beliefs respond to similarity in line with actual pivotality only at intermediate thresholds: easy thresholds produce unrecognized pivotality, and near-unanimous thresholds produce illusory pivotality. The two response-miscalibrated patterns coincide with welfare losses; only under aligned pivotality does greater participation translate into greater collective success and higher welfare.

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin-glass model used the replica symmetry method to find the phase transition of the system. In 1979-1980, Parisi proposed a solution based on replica symmetry breaking (RSB), which allowed him to identify the underlying phases of complex systems such as spin-glasses. Regardless of the method used for detection, the intrinsic phase of a system exists whether or not replicas are considered. We introduce a single replica method of spin-glass phase detection using the field's variation experienced by each spin in a system configuration. This method focuses on a single replica with quenched random couplings. Each spin inevitably observes a different field from the others. Our results show that the mean and variance of fields named "Spontaneous Configurational Field" experienced by spins are suitable indicators to explore different ferromagnetic, paramagnetic, and mixed phases. To classify different phases of the system with defined indicators we have developed an algorithm based on machine learning to analyze the desired samples.

Scientific discovery requires developing worthwhile hypotheses into practical investigations, yet learning from this evolving research process remains challenging. We introduce an operational definition of valuable and testable research hypotheses: evidence-grounded claims about consequential uncertainties, coupled with feasible investigations, explicit decision criteria, and alternative explanations. Our DiscoveryRSI framework develops hypothesis trees through multi-agent evolutionary search, compiles selected investigations into executable Harbor tasks, and recursively learns through three mechanisms: hypothesis credit optimization attributes scientific assessments to documented research contributions; harness replay identifies productive strategies and recurring failures to refine research workflows; and rediscovery applies accepted improvements to new investigations, generating further experience for subsequent learning. We also introduce DFM-Bench, which provides comprehensive assessment of hypothesis quality and cumulative research progress at the levels of hypotheses, revisions, development paths and research runs. Across four life-science domains, automated evaluation shows that hypothesis quality rises from 4.86 for the base model to 5.39 after two rounds of self-improvement, with the large gains in falsifiability and data resolvability. We further validate hypothesis quality through expert review, comparing our DiscoveryRSI-27B with other research agents. Preliminary human assessments show that DiscoveryRSI-27B scores higher than GPT-6 Luna on hypothesis importance and whether claims are plausible and evidence-bounded. DiscoveryRSI-27B achieved a 6.3% rate of hypothesis correspondence with research published after the model cutoff, largely outperform GPT-6 with 2.5% and Claude Opus 5 with 2.3%, while delivering greater human-rated improvement along research paths.

The ability of deep neural networks to generalise well even when they interpolate their training data has been explained using various "simplicity biases". These theories postulate that neural networks avoid overfitting by first learning simple functions, say a linear classifier, before learning more complex, non-linear functions. Meanwhile, data structure is also recognised as a key ingredient for good generalisation, yet its role in simplicity biases is not yet understood. Here, we show that neural networks trained using stochastic gradient descent initially classify their inputs using lower-order input statistics, like mean and covariance, and exploit higher-order statistics only later during training. We first demonstrate this distributional simplicity bias (DSB) in a solvable model of a neural network trained on synthetic data. We empirically demonstrate DSB in a range of deep convolutional networks and visual transformers trained on CIFAR10, and show that it even holds in networks pre-trained on ImageNet. We discuss the relation of DSB to other simplicity biases and consider its implications for the principle of Gaussian universality in learning.

It is becoming increasingly clear that many machine learning classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In attempting to explain the origin of adversarial examples, previous studies have typically focused on the fact that neural networks operate on high dimensional data, they overfit, or they are too linear. Here we argue that the origin of adversarial examples is primarily due to an inherent uncertainty that neural networks have about their predictions. We show that the functional form of this uncertainty is independent of architecture, dataset, and training protocol; and depends only on the statistics of the logit differences of the network, which do not change significantly during training. This leads to adversarial error having a universal scaling, as a power-law, with respect to the size of the adversarial perturbation. We show that this universality holds for a broad range of datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10, ImageNet, and random data), models (including state-of-the-art deep networks, linear models, adversarially trained networks, and networks trained on randomly shuffled labels), and attacks (FGSM, step l.l., PGD). Motivated by these results, we study the effects of reducing prediction entropy on adversarial robustness. Finally, we study the effect of network architectures on adversarial sensitivity. To do this, we use neural architecture search with reinforcement learning to find adversarially robust architectures on CIFAR10. Our resulting architecture is more robust to white and black box attacks compared to previous attempts.

We test the Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) in astronomy by measuring representational convergence across a range of foundation models trained on different data types. Using spectroscopic and imaging observations from JWST, HSC, Legacy Survey, and DESI, we compare representations from vision transformers, self-supervised models, and astronomy-specific architectures via mutual k-nearest neighbour analysis. We observe consistent scaling: representational alignment generally increases with model capacity across our tested architectures, supporting convergence toward a shared representation of galaxy astrophysics. Our results suggest that astronomical foundation models can use pre-trained general-purpose architectures, allowing us to capitalise on the broader machine learning community's already-spent computational investment.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Research on the distribution of prime numbers has revealed a dual character: deterministic in definition yet exhibiting statistical behavior reminiscent of random processes. In this paper we show that it is possible to use an image-focused machine learning model to measure the comparative regularity of prime number fields at specific regions of an Ulam spiral. Specifically, we demonstrate that in pure accuracy terms, models trained on blocks extracted from regions of the spiral in the vicinity of 500m outperform models trained on blocks extracted from the region representing integers lower than 25m. This implies existence of more easily learnable order in the former region than in the latter. Moreover, a detailed breakdown of precision and recall scores seem to imply that the model is favouring a different approach to classification in different regions of the spiral, focusing more on identifying prime patterns at lower numbers and more on eliminating composites at higher numbers. This aligns with number theory conjectures suggesting that at higher orders of magnitude we should see diminishing noise in prime number distributions, with averages (density, AP equidistribution) coming to dominate, while local randomness regularises after scaling by log x. Taken together, these findings point toward an interesting possibility: that machine learning can serve as a new experimental instrument for number theory. Notably, the method shows potential 1 for investigating the patterns in strong and weak primes for cryptographic purposes.

Humans can attribute beliefs to others. However, it is unknown to what extent this ability results from an innate biological endowment or from experience accrued through child development, particularly exposure to language describing others' mental states. We test the viability of the language exposure hypothesis by assessing whether models exposed to large quantities of human language display sensitivity to the implied knowledge states of characters in written passages. In pre-registered analyses, we present a linguistic version of the False Belief Task to both human participants and a Large Language Model, GPT-3. Both are sensitive to others' beliefs, but while the language model significantly exceeds chance behavior, it does not perform as well as the humans, nor does it explain the full extent of their behavior -- despite being exposed to more language than a human would in a lifetime. This suggests that while statistical learning from language exposure may in part explain how humans develop the ability to reason about the mental states of others, other mechanisms are also responsible.

While it is widely known that neural networks are universal approximators of continuous functions, a less known and perhaps more powerful result is that a neural network with a single hidden layer can approximate accurately any nonlinear continuous operator. This universal approximation theorem is suggestive of the potential application of neural networks in learning nonlinear operators from data. However, the theorem guarantees only a small approximation error for a sufficient large network, and does not consider the important optimization and generalization errors. To realize this theorem in practice, we propose deep operator networks (DeepONets) to learn operators accurately and efficiently from a relatively small dataset. A DeepONet consists of two sub-networks, one for encoding the input function at a fixed number of sensors x_i, i=1,dots,m (branch net), and another for encoding the locations for the output functions (trunk net). We perform systematic simulations for identifying two types of operators, i.e., dynamic systems and partial differential equations, and demonstrate that DeepONet significantly reduces the generalization error compared to the fully-connected networks. We also derive theoretically the dependence of the approximation error in terms of the number of sensors (where the input function is defined) as well as the input function type, and we verify the theorem with computational results. More importantly, we observe high-order error convergence in our computational tests, namely polynomial rates (from half order to fourth order) and even exponential convergence with respect to the training dataset size.

The Strong Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that representational convergence in artificial neural networks can be harnessed constructively: embeddings can be translated across models through a universal latent space without paired data. We ask whether an analogous geometry can be recovered across human brains. Using fMRI data from the Natural Scenes Dataset, we propose a self-supervised encoder that learns subject-specific embeddings from brain data alone by exploiting repeated stimulus presentations. We show that these independently learned spaces can be translated across subjects using unsupervised orthogonal rotations, without paired cross-subject samples or intermediate model representations. Synchronizing pairwise rotations into a single shared latent space further improves cross-subject retrieval, indicating that subject-specific spaces are mutually compatible with a common coordinate system. These results provide evidence for a shared neural geometry in the human visual cortex: subject-specific fMRI representations are approximately isometric across individuals and can be translated through purely geometric transformations.

Recent work has proposed the linear representation hypothesis: that language models perform computation by manipulating one-dimensional representations of concepts ("features") in activation space. In contrast, we explore whether some language model representations may be inherently multi-dimensional. We begin by developing a rigorous definition of irreducible multi-dimensional features based on whether they can be decomposed into either independent or non-co-occurring lower-dimensional features. Motivated by these definitions, we design a scalable method that uses sparse autoencoders to automatically find multi-dimensional features in GPT-2 and Mistral 7B. These auto-discovered features include strikingly interpretable examples, e.g. circular features representing days of the week and months of the year. We identify tasks where these exact circles are used to solve computational problems involving modular arithmetic in days of the week and months of the year. Finally, we provide evidence that these circular features are indeed the fundamental unit of computation in these tasks with intervention experiments on Mistral 7B and Llama 3 8B, and we find further circular representations by breaking down the hidden states for these tasks into interpretable components.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

Whether models trained on different modalities converge to the same representation of the world is central to AI. The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) conjectures that they do as they scale, but without a proof it offers neither a guarantee nor a recipe. We turn the hypothesis into a theorem. First, we prove a Platonic Representation Theorem: Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) trained separately on any number of modalities learn the same representation up to one rotation whenever their positive pairs are two observations of one scene--good views--and their misalignment is bounded otherwise. Second, we show that next-token prediction is a JEPA with bad views, parts of a single document, which explains why language models align with vision only through scale. Third, we validate the theory from 145k captions to the texts of 940M web images, and uncover a scaling law of alignment that predicts unseen runs within seed noise. Good views need 42 times fewer training samples than next-token prediction on the same corpus to reach the same alignment, and a 109M-parameter text JEPA aligns with DINOv2 and CLIP's image encoders better than every language model we evaluated, up to 72B parameters, and than CLIP's text encoder: next-token prediction is a remarkably inefficient route to platonic representations. As a showcase, one rotation turns separately trained encoders into an image captioner (CIDEr .838 on COCO). Even that rotation needs no pair: on the latest pair-free benchmark, our text JEPA beats every zero-shot accuracy reported with language models up to 8B parameters, e.g., 64\% against at most 56\% top-5 on ImageNet-100. Positive views, and not scale alone, are thus the lever to build platonic representations.

A central tenet of human cognition is systematicity, the principle that understanding one concept is inherently tied to understanding close variations of that concept. Do reasoning models robustly exhibit such systematicity? If so, we would expect consistent performance on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. Here, we extend established rule induction tasks from cognitive science to assess the systematicity of thought in current reasoning models. Each task family has compositional structure that we use to create structurally equivalent task variations through task isomorphisms such as recombination and substitution. We find that despite being able to correctly solve a task, models often fail on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. These findings suggest that many model behaviors lack systematicity, rendering it difficult to robustly establish the cognitive abilities of reasoning models beyond the particular contexts they were evaluated in.

AI Engram (Kwon et al., 2026) formalizes the four engram criteria of neuroscience as a constrained inverse problem in weight space and solves it closed-form: concept-specific memory traces become linear objects that can be extracted once and combined arithmetically. Appendix F states the Compositional Memory States Hypothesis: edited models live on "a commutative manifold where the integration of A and B reaches a consistent equilibrium regardless of the learning sequence." The evidence base is single and paired edits -- in materials terms, single-cycle tests, in which fatigue accumulation is structurally invisible. Whether the hypothesis holds under sequential load is exactly the "temporal dynamics" question the paper defers to future work. We run that test on the authors' own reference implementation, at their reported best edit strength (TOFU alpha=0.6, a choice favoring the linearity hypothesis), with pre-registered predictions, across three model charges (two vendors, two architecture families). Four findings replicate across all three: (1) zero-shot composition and sequential re-calibrated editing diverge by 61-71% of the edit magnitude; (2) cut order is not interchangeable, and the effect scales with concept overlap -- in one charge the order of cutting two Paris landmarks decides whether an uninvolved third concept survives; (3) the survivors' layer-input covariances -- the method's own sufficient statistics, read as strain gauges -- drift monotonically with every further cut, in every surviving concept, in every charge; (4) erased knowledge partially returns under subsequent unrelated cuts. Appendix F's commutative-manifold hypothesis is thereby falsified for sequential editing; the single-edit results of the original paper are untouched. For unlearning-as-compliance: erasure certified today does not certify the artifact after its next edit.

The superfluid phase transition dynamics and associated spontaneous vortex formation with the crossing of the critical temperature in a disk geometry is studied in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence by solving the Einstein-Abelian-Higgs model in an AdS_4 black hole. For a slow quench, the vortex density admits a universal scaling law with the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM), while for fast quenches, the density shows a universal scaling behavior as a function of the final temperature, that lies beyond the KZM prediction. The vortex number distribution in both the power-law and saturation regimes can be approximated by a normal distribution. However, the study of the universal scaling of the cumulants reveals non-normal features and indicates that vortex statistics in the newborn superfluid is best described by the Poisson binomial distribution, previously predicted in the KZM regime [Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 240602 (2020)]. This is confirmed by studying the cumulant scalings as a function of the quench time and the quench depth. Our work supports the existence of a universal defect number distribution that accommodates the KZM scaling, its breakdown at fast quenches, and the additional universal scaling laws as a function of the final value of the control parameter.

Inference-time multi-agent LLM scaling lacks a shared unit: counting nominal agents conflates cost with independent evidence. We derive a two-parameter scaling law R(N) = N_eff/N = 1/(1+c(N-1)N^{-β}) where the regime exponent β classifies any configuration into one of three asymptotic regimes -- hard-ceiling at 1/c (β= 0), sublinear at N^β/c (0 < β< 1), or linear (βge 1), and a mean-field theorem predicts that peer count k and rounds τ during agent debate enter the dynamics only through their product kτ. The law applies at two levels: answer diversity and correctness redundancy. Across 44 (model times task times condition) cells spanning peer debate, self-correction, random-noise placebo, self-consistency, three open-weight families (Qwen, Llama, Ministral) at scales from 7B to 32B with a frontier API check (Gemini), thinking models, heterogeneous teams, and sparse communication, the functional form fits every condition at R^2 > 0.99; only (c, β) shifts. On free-form math, dense peer influence collapses the answer-level regime from sublinear into hard-ceiling; correctness-level fits remain hard-ceiling throughout. Three findings have practical implications. (i)~Thirty dense debating agents produce no more answer diversity than one on MMLU-Hard. (ii)~A noise placebo tracks self-correction on free-form math and at 4times scale, so within homogeneous teams the gain commonly attributed to ``debate'' comes from re-evaluation, not peer content. (iii)~A single N le 5 pilot predicts the N=30 structural ceiling, and within the configurations tested only architectural diversity (heterogeneous teams) lowers c and escapes the hard-ceiling regime, communication-mode interventions do not.

We investigate whether neuron populations within neural networks evolve predictably with scale, extending scaling laws beyond macroscopic observables such as loss. To probe this question, we study Rosetta Neurons, a previously characterized class of neurons whose activation patterns are similar across independently trained models (Dravid et al., 2023). In separate analyses of language models up to 30B parameters and vision models up to 5B parameters, we observe that the population of Rosetta Neurons follows a sublinear power law in model size, growing in absolute number but occupying a shrinking fraction of the total neuron count. We further observe a Neuron Polarization Effect: Rosetta Neurons become more selective and increasingly monosemantic with scale, separating from a growing non-Rosetta population that remains less selective. An analytical model balancing feature utility against limited neuron capacity explains the sublinear power-law scaling and this polarization effect. Finally, we find that Rosetta Neurons become more domain-specialized with scale and illustrate their selectivity through a targeted data-filtering case study for continued pretraining. Our results point to a scaling law for interpretable, shared neuron-level structure, linking model size to systematic changes in neuron universality, selectivity, and specialization.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

A large literature suggests that people are intuitive Dualists--they consider the mind ethereal, distinct from the body. Past research also shows that Dualism emerges, in part, via learning (e.g., Barlev & Shtulman, 2021). But whether learning is sufficient to give rise to Dualism is unknown.The evidence from human learners does address this question because humans are endowed not only with general learning capacities but also with core knowledge capacities. And recent results suggest that core knowledge begets Dualism (Berent, Theodore & Valencia, 2021; Berent, 2023). To evaluate the role of learning, here, we probe for a mind-body divide in Davinci--a large language model (LLM) that is devoid of any innate core knowledge. We show that Davinci still leans towards Dualism, and that this bias increases systematically with the learner's inductive potential. Thus, davinci (a GPT-3 model) exhibits mild Dualist tendencies, whereas its descendent, text-davinci-003 (a GPT-3.5 model), shows a full-blown bias. It selectively considers thoughts (epistemic states) as disembodied--as unlikely to show up in the body (in the brain), but not in its absence (after death). While Davinci's performance is constrained by its syntactic limitations, and it differs from humans, its Dualist bias is robust. These results demonstrate that the mind-body divide is partly learnable from experience.They also show how, as LLM's are exposed to human narratives, they induce not only human knowledge but also human biases.

Transformers trained on modular arithmetic exhibit sharp transitions between memorization, generalization, and collapse. We show that weight decay acts as a scalar empirical control parameter for these regimes, and introduce two cheap online diagnostics, mean pairwise attention-head cosine similarity and entropy standard deviation, that track training dynamics from attention activations alone and complement loss-landscape diagnostics at lower compute cost. Across eleven experimental conditions and three model scales (0.82M to 85M parameters), the weight-decay axis separates memorization, developmental grokking, and collapse. A near-transition logistic fit localizes the memorization-to-developmental boundary at λ_c=0.0158 (95% CI [0.0109, 0.0200], N=210); a power-law fit gives an empirical exponent ν=0.757 (CI [0.725, 0.799]). Reference exponents ν=1/2 and 3D Ising νapprox 0.63 lie outside this empirical CI under our four-bin grid, so we report ν as empirical and defer universality-class identification to denser finite-size-scaling work. A horizon-matched multi-task replication (n=280, four modular operations) preserves the weight-decay control pattern; a paired attention-head re-initialization experiment at λ=0.05 changes Phase-2 amplitude (Cohen's d=-1.190, n=10, p_t=4.5 times 10^{-3}), while matched weight-norm clipping does not. Three cross-architecture probes (4L MLP, 4L LSTM, and 4L Mamba; each n=70) replicate the weight-decay-controlled transition with architecture-specific λ_c values. Main diagnostic claims are scoped to modular arithmetic in small transformer attention models; the non-attention experiments are scope probes, and architecture-wide, language-model, and universality-class claims are out of scope.

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

The "maximum similarity correlation" definition introduced in this study is motivated by the seminal work of Szekely et al on "distance covariance" (Ann. Statist. 2007, 35: 2769-2794; Ann. Appl. Stat. 2009, 3: 1236-1265). Instead of using Euclidean distances "d" as in Szekely et al, we use "similarity", which can be defined as "exp(-d/s)", where the scaling parameter s>0 controls how rapidly the similarity falls off with distance. Scale parameters are chosen by maximizing the similarity correlation. The motivation for using "similarity" originates in spectral clustering theory (see e.g. Ng et al 2001, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14: 849-856). We show that a particular form of similarity correlation is asymptotically equivalent to distance correlation for large values of the scale parameter. Furthermore, we extend similarity correlation to coherence between complex valued vectors, including its partitioning into real and imaginary contributions. Several toy examples are used for comparing distance and similarity correlations. For instance, points on a noiseless straight line give distance and similarity correlation values equal to 1; but points on a noiseless circle produces near zero distance correlation (dCorr=0.02) while the similarity correlation is distinctly non zero (sCorr=0.36). In distinction to the distance approach, similarity gives more importance to small distances, which emphasizes the local properties of functional relations. This paper represents a preliminary empirical study, showing that the novel similarity association has some distinct practical advantages over distance based association.For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing all methods here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including all test data, are freely available at: "sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/similaritycovariance".

The precise equivalence between discretized Euclidean field theories and a certain class of probabilistic graphical models, namely the mathematical framework of Markov random fields, opens up the opportunity to investigate machine learning from the perspective of quantum field theory. In this contribution we will demonstrate, through the Hammersley-Clifford theorem, that the φ^{4} scalar field theory on a square lattice satisfies the local Markov property and can therefore be recast as a Markov random field. We will then derive from the φ^{4} theory machine learning algorithms and neural networks which can be viewed as generalizations of conventional neural network architectures. Finally, we will conclude by presenting applications based on the minimization of an asymmetric distance between the probability distribution of the φ^{4} machine learning algorithms and target probability distributions.

Sampling based consistency is widely used for hallucination detection, yet aggregate performance can conceal systematic differences in which errors are detectable. This work studies that heterogeneity across four language models and three factual question answering datasets. Partitioning hallucinations by answer agreement reveals high agreement (Ghost) and low agreement (Flickering) regimes with an apparent detectability gap of 0.35 to 0.46 AUC. Because the statistics used to define the regimes and measure this gap are strongly coupled (|ρ|approx0.94 to 1.00), the raw result is treated as a property of agreement based detection rather than independent evidence. After freezing regime assignments, lexical and semantic response dispersion preserve the asymmetry, with bootstrap 95% intervals excluding zero in all 12 model and dataset settings. A stricter test using individual diffusion trajectories and no cross seed information preserves the asymmetry across all three LLaDA datasets (p<0.005) and directionally across all three Dream datasets, with one reaching significance. The hard regime varies substantially in prevalence across models (16% to 77%), and matched prompts frequently change regimes between models. These findings show that aggregate detection metrics conceal persistent, model dependent heterogeneity in language model failures and motivate regime conditioned evaluation.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

The question of AI consciousness is one of the most urgent pre-emptive problems in philosophy and computer science, yet progress is hampered by a cacophony of competing theories that often talk past each other. Separating the hard problem from the mapping problem allows the deepest metaphysical disagreements to be set aside: granting that experience supervenes on a system's organisation, the tractable question becomes at which grain of description that supervenience base sits. We extend Marr's three levels of analysis into a five-level hierarchy of functional descriptions (behavioural, computational, intrinsic causal-structural, organismic, and organism-environment) grounded in supervenience, coarse-graining, and multiple realisability. The major theories of consciousness are positioned within this hierarchy according to which level they take to be critical, and for each level we develop operationalisable indicators and assess current AI systems against them. A Bayesian model then combines theoretical credences with indicator evidence into an overall credence in a system's capacity for consciousness. In illustrative assessments, the verdict for current LLMs is driven as much by where theoretical credence is placed as by how the evidence is read: under different stipulated readings and credence distributions, assessments range from below 0.01 to roughly 0.8, showing sensitivity to assumptions. Finally, the consciousness indicators at each level closely overlap with the architectural features needed for general intelligence, suggesting that increasingly capable AI may become a stronger candidate for consciousness. The framework supports a structured agnosticism, in which theoretical commitments are made explicit, credences are updated as evidence accumulates, and assessments take the form of aggregated probabilities rather than verdicts.

A recent paper (van Rooij et al. 2024) claims to have proved that achieving human-like intelligence using learning from data is intractable in a complexity-theoretic sense. We identify that the proof relies on an unjustified assumption about the distribution of (input, output) pairs to the system. We briefly discuss that assumption in the context of two fundamental barriers to repairing the proof: the need to precisely define ``human-like," and the need to account for the fact that a particular machine learning system will have particular inductive biases that are key to the analysis.

Recent language models have a mysterious tendency to generate false but plausible-sounding text. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical reason that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucination is necessary for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.

This paper presents a novel paradigm of the local percept-perceiver phenomenon to formalize certain observations in neuroscientific theories of consciousness. Using this model, a set-theoretic formalism is developed for artificial systems, and the existence of machine consciousness is proved by invoking Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. The article argues for the possibility of a reductionist form of epistemic consciousness within machines.

The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis demonstrated that sparse subnetworks can match full-model performance, suggesting parameter redundancy. Meanwhile, in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), recent work has shown that updates concentrate on a sparse subset of parameters, which further lends evidence to this underlying redundancy. We study the simplest possible way to exploit this redundancy: training only a randomly selected subset of parameters at extreme sparsities. Empirically, we find that training just 1\% of parameters matches or exceeds full-parameter RLVR finetuning across 3 models and 2 task domains. Moreover, different random masks show minimal overlap (leq 0.005 Jaccard similarity) and yet all succeed, suggesting pretrained models contain many viable sparse subnetworks rather than one privileged set. We term this the Multiple Ticket Hypothesis. We explain this phenomenon through the implicit per-step KL constraint in RLVR, which restricts updates to a low-dimensional subspace, enabling arbitrary sparse masks to succeed.

Scientific discovery requires identifying the scientific principles underlying observed phenomena to guide further investigation. As these empirical principles are often unknown in complex discovery processes, they are constructed via a hypotheses-to-principle pipeline to obtain recurring causalities from progressively accumulated observations during test-time discovery. However, constructing this knowledge requires substantial domain expertise, time, and effort, making this translation stage a bottleneck for scientific discovery. To address this limitation, we propose Principia, an LLM-based framework that constructs and continually refines scientific principles at test time. Drawing on how human researchers develop principles, Principia forms comparative causal hypotheses from related inputs and their observed outcomes, then synthesizes recurring relationships across these hypotheses into inductive principles. By applying the constructed hypotheses and inductive principles to the task, it obtains new observations, revises the hypotheses used based on these new observations, and reconstructs principles from the updated hypotheses, allowing scientific knowledge to continuously evolve throughout test-time discovery. Across benchmarks spanning molecular optimization, protein engineering, gene perturbation, and molecular property prediction, Principia outperforms baselines relying on internal knowledge, external sources, or experience summaries, while generating principles that are plausible and consistent with the scientific literature, demonstrating its effectiveness in constructing and refining task-specific hypotheses and principles at test time for scientific discovery. Our code is available at https://github.com/DongkiKim95/Principia.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

We are born with the ability to learn concepts by comparing diverse observations. This helps us to understand the new world in a compositional manner and facilitates extrapolation, as objects naturally consist of multiple concepts. In this work, we argue that the cognitive mechanism of comparison, fundamental to human learning, is also vital for machines to recover true concepts underlying the data. This offers correctness guarantees for the field of concept learning, which, despite its impressive empirical successes, still lacks general theoretical support. Specifically, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for the identifiability of concepts with multiple classes of observations. We show that with sufficient diversity across classes, hidden concepts can be identified without assuming specific concept types, functional relations, or parametric generative models. Interestingly, even when conditions are not globally satisfied, we can still provide alternative guarantees for as many concepts as possible based on local comparisons, thereby extending the applicability of our theory to more flexible scenarios. Moreover, the hidden structure between classes and concepts can also be identified nonparametrically. We validate our theoretical results in both synthetic and real-world settings.

Discovering the existence of universal adversarial perturbations had large theoretical and practical impacts on the field of adversarial learning. In the text domain, most universal studies focused on adversarial prefixes which are added to all texts. However, unlike the vision domain, adding the same perturbation to different inputs results in noticeably unnatural inputs. Therefore, we introduce a new universal adversarial setup - a universal adversarial policy, which has many advantages of other universal attacks but also results in valid texts - thus making it relevant in practice. We achieve this by learning a single search policy over a predefined set of semantics preserving text alterations, on many texts. This formulation is universal in that the policy is successful in finding adversarial examples on new texts efficiently. Our approach uses text perturbations which were extensively shown to produce natural attacks in the non-universal setup (specific synonym replacements). We suggest a strong baseline approach for this formulation which uses reinforcement learning. It's ability to generalise (from as few as 500 training texts) shows that universal adversarial patterns exist in the text domain as well.

The Large Language Model from Power Law Decoder Representations (PLDR-LLM) and its attention, Power Law Graph Attention (PLGA), replace the fixed bilinear form of scaled dot-product attention (SDPA) with a learned, input-generated bilinear operator G_{LM}, built from a positive tensor A_{LM} by elementwise power laws. The architecture is fully specified, verified against pinned reference releases; claims are labeled theorem, conditional theorem, measurement, or conjecture. Unconditionally: PLGA contains SDPA exactly at G_{LM}=I; A_{LM} and A_P are strictly entrywise positive, with Perron-Frobenius structure on A_{LM}; the DAG regularizer has the NOTEARS walk-counting form and positivity obstructs exact acyclicity; and, under nonresonance (satisfied by standard rotary frequencies), a commutant criterion identifies which operators preserve relative-position dependence. An inference-collapse theorem: exact input invariance of deductive outputs collapses inference to generalized SDPA with a constant operator. Measured invariance: relative fluctuations of 10^{-6} and below; perturbation bounds quantify but do not certify cached inference; the assembled proxy misses the decoding margin. A conditional three-stage mechanism (rotary twirl, concentration, row-map contraction) is measured on a released checkpoint. Blockwise training and scoring under the global Gram are stated with explicit target exposure; on tested samples, block and sequential scoring select identical answers and agree on the published TruthfulQA probability-mass metric within 5times 10^{-5} per item. Self-organized criticality enters as a phenomenological framework with an intrinsic order parameter; open claims become falsifiable conjectures. Selected proof cores are machine-checked in Lean 4.

The strong lottery ticket hypothesis (SLTH) conjectures that high-performing subnetworks, called strong lottery tickets (SLTs), are hidden in randomly initialized neural networks. Although recent theoretical studies have established the SLTH across various neural architectures, the SLTH for transformer architectures still lacks theoretical understanding. In particular, the current theory of the SLTH does not yet account for the multi-head attention (MHA) mechanism, a core component of transformers. To address this gap, we introduce a theoretical analysis of the existence of SLTs within MHAs. We prove that, if a randomly initialized MHA of H heads and input dimension d has the hidden dimension O(dlog(Hd^{3/2})) for the key and value, it contains an SLT that approximates an arbitrary MHA with the same input dimension with high probability. Furthermore, by leveraging this theory for MHAs, we extend the SLTH to transformers without normalization layers. We empirically validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that the approximation error between the SLT within a source model (MHA and transformer) and an approximate target counterpart decreases exponentially by increasing the hidden dimension of the source model.

Recent research across mathematical problem solving, proof assistant programming and multimodal jailbreaking documents a striking finding: when (multimodal) language model tackle a suite of tasks with multiple attempts per task -- succeeding if any attempt is correct -- then the negative log of the average success rate scales a power law in the number of attempts. In this work, we identify an apparent puzzle: a simple mathematical calculation predicts that on each problem, the failure rate should fall exponentially with the number of attempts. We confirm this prediction empirically, raising a question: from where does aggregate polynomial scaling emerge? We then answer this question by demonstrating per-problem exponential scaling can be made consistent with aggregate polynomial scaling if the distribution of single-attempt success probabilities is heavy tailed such that a small fraction of tasks with extremely low success probabilities collectively warp the aggregate success trend into a power law - even as each problem scales exponentially on its own. We further demonstrate that this distributional perspective explains previously observed deviations from power law scaling, and provides a simple method for forecasting the power law exponent with an order of magnitude lower relative error, or equivalently, {sim}2-4 orders of magnitude less inference compute. Overall, our work contributes to a better understanding of how neural language model performance improves with scaling inference compute and the development of scaling-predictable evaluations of (multimodal) language models.

Reciprocity is a fundamental symmetry present in many natural phenomena and engineered systems. Distinct situations where this symmetry is broken are typically grouped under the umbrella term "nonreciprocity", colloquially defined by: the action of A on B neq the action of B on A. In this review, we elucidate what nonreciprocity is by providing an introduction to its most salient classes: nonvariational dynamics, violations of Newton's third law, broken detailed balance, nonreciprocal responses and nonreciprocity of arbitrary linear operators. Next, we point out where to find these manifestations of non-reciprocity, from ensembles of particles with field mediated interactions to synthetic neural networks and open quantum systems. Given this breadth of contexts and the lack of an all-encompassing definition, it makes it all the more intriguing that some general conclusions can be gathered, when distinct definitions of nonreciprocity overlap. We explore what these universal consequences are with a special emphasis on collective phenomena that arise in nonreciprocal many-body systems. The topics covered include nonreciprocal phase transitions and non-normal amplification of noise and perturbations. We conclude with some open questions.

The training and deployment of large language models (LLMs) create a feedback loop with human users: models learn human beliefs from data, reinforce these beliefs with generated content, reabsorb the reinforced beliefs, and feed them back to users again and again. This dynamic resembles an echo chamber. We hypothesize that this feedback loop entrenches the existing values and beliefs of users, leading to a loss of diversity and potentially the lock-in of false beliefs. We formalize this hypothesis and test it empirically with agent-based LLM simulations and real-world GPT usage data. Analysis reveals sudden but sustained drops in diversity after the release of new GPT iterations, consistent with the hypothesized human-AI feedback loop. Code and data available at https://thelockinhypothesis.com

Machine learning has achieved remarkable success in many applications. However, existing studies are largely based on the closed-world assumption, which assumes that the environment is stationary, and the model is fixed once deployed. In many real-world applications, this fundamental and rather naive assumption may not hold because an open environment is complex, dynamic, and full of unknowns. In such cases, rejecting unknowns, discovering novelties, and then incrementally learning them, could enable models to be safe and evolve continually as biological systems do. This paper provides a holistic view of open-world machine learning by investigating unknown rejection, novel class discovery, and class-incremental learning in a unified paradigm. The challenges, principles, and limitations of current methodologies are discussed in detail. Finally, we discuss several potential directions for future research. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to the emerging open-world machine learning paradigm, to help researchers build more powerful AI systems in their respective fields, and to promote the development of artificial general intelligence.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Even when massively overparameterized, deep neural networks show a remarkable ability to generalize. Research on this phenomenon has focused on generalization within distribution, via smooth interpolation. Yet in some settings neural networks also learn to extrapolate to data far beyond the bounds of the original training set, sometimes even allowing for infinite generalization, implying that an algorithm capable of solving the task has been learned. Here we undertake a case study of the learning dynamics of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained on the streaming parity task in order to develop an effective theory of algorithm development. The streaming parity task is a simple but nonlinear task defined on sequences up to arbitrary length. We show that, with sufficient finite training experience, RNNs exhibit a phase transition to perfect infinite generalization. Using an effective theory for the representational dynamics, we find an implicit representational merger effect which can be interpreted as the construction of a finite automaton that reproduces the task. Overall, our results disclose one mechanism by which neural networks can generalize infinitely from finite training experience.

Proportionality is an attractive fairness concept that has been applied to a range of problems including the facility location problem, a classic problem in social choice. In our work, we propose a concept called Strong Proportionality, which ensures that when there are two groups of agents at different locations, both groups incur the same total cost. We show that although Strong Proportionality is a well-motivated and basic axiom, there is no deterministic strategyproof mechanism satisfying the property. We then identify a randomized mechanism called Random Rank (which uniformly selects a number k between 1 to n and locates the facility at the k'th highest agent location) which satisfies Strong Proportionality in expectation. Our main theorem characterizes Random Rank as the unique mechanism that achieves universal truthfulness, universal anonymity, and Strong Proportionality in expectation among all randomized mechanisms. Finally, we show via the AverageOrRandomRank mechanism that even stronger ex-post fairness guarantees can be achieved by weakening universal truthfulness to strategyproofness in expectation.

With infinitely many high-quality data points, infinite computational power, an infinitely large foundation model with a perfect training algorithm and guaranteed zero generalization error on the pretext task, can the model be used for everything? This question cannot be answered by the existing theory of representation, optimization or generalization, because the issues they mainly investigate are assumed to be nonexistent here. In this paper, we show that category theory provides powerful machinery to answer this question. We have proved three results. The first one limits the power of prompt-based learning, saying that the model can solve a downstream task with prompts if and only if the task is representable. The second one says fine tuning does not have this limit, as a foundation model with the minimum required power (up to symmetry) can theoretically solve downstream tasks for the category defined by pretext task, with fine tuning and enough resources. Our final result can be seen as a new type of generalization theorem, showing that the foundation model can generate unseen objects from the target category (e.g., images) using the structural information from the source category (e.g., texts). Along the way, we provide a categorical framework for supervised and self-supervised learning, which might be of independent interest.

In many cases, the computing resources are limited without the benefit from GPU, especially in the edge devices of IoT enabled systems. It may not be easy to implement complex AI models in edge devices. The Universal Approximation Theorem states that a shallow neural network (SNN) can represent any nonlinear function. However, how fat is an SNN enough to solve a nonlinear decision-making problem in edge devices? In this paper, we focus on the learnability and robustness of SNNs, obtained by a greedy tight force heuristic algorithm (performance driven BP) and a loose force meta-heuristic algorithm (a variant of PSO). Two groups of experiments are conducted to examine the learnability and the robustness of SNNs with Sigmoid activation, learned/optimised by KPI-PDBPs and KPI-VPSOs, where, KPIs (key performance indicators: error (ERR), accuracy (ACC) and F_1 score) are the objectives, driving the searching process. An incremental approach is applied to examine the impact of hidden neuron numbers on the performance of SNNs, learned/optimised by KPI-PDBPs and KPI-VPSOs. From the engineering prospective, all sensors are well justified for a specific task. Hence, all sensor readings should be strongly correlated to the target. Therefore, the structure of an SNN should depend on the dimensions of a problem space. The experimental results show that the number of hidden neurons up to the dimension number of a problem space is enough; the learnability of SNNs, produced by KPI-PDBP, is better than that of SNNs, optimized by KPI-VPSO, regarding the performance and learning time on the training data sets; the robustness of SNNs learned by KPI-PDBPs and KPI-VPSOs depends on the data sets; and comparing with other classic machine learning models, ACC-PDBPs win for almost all tested data sets.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Real-world phenomena do not generate arbitrary variability: their signals concentrate on compact, low-variability subsets of functional space, enabling rapid generalization from few examples. A small child can recognize a dog after extremely limited exposure because the perceptual manifold of "dog" is compact, structured, and low-dimensional. We formalize this principle through a deterministic functional-topological framework in which the set of valid realizations produced by a physical process forms a compact subset of a Banach space, endowed with stable invariants, a finite Hausdorff radius, and an induced continuous perceptual functional. This geometry provides explicit limits on knowledge, conditions for identifiability, and guarantees for generalization from sparse evidence -- properties fundamental to both natural and artificial intelligence. Across electromechanical, electrochemical, and physiological domains, we show that real-world processes consistently generate compact perceptual manifolds with the same geometric characteristics. Their boundaries can be discovered in a fully self-supervised manner as the empirical radius saturates with increasing sampling, even when the governing equations are unknown. These results demonstrate that deterministic functional topology offers a unified mathematical foundation for perception, representation, and world-model construction. It provides a geometric explanation for why biological learners and self-supervised AI systems can generalize from few observations, and establishes compact perceptual manifolds as a fundamental building block for future AI architectures. Finally, this work unifies biological perception and modern self-supervised models under a single geometric principle: both derive their generalization ability from the compactness and invariants of real-world perceptual manifolds.

The Overfitted Brain hypothesis suggests dreams happen to allow generalization in the human brain. Here, we ask if the same is true for reinforcement learning agents as well. Given limited experience in a real environment, we use imagination-based reinforcement learning to train a policy on dream-like episodes, where non-imaginative, predicted trajectories are modified through generative augmentations. Experiments on four ProcGen environments show that, compared to classic imagination and offline training on collected experience, our method can reach a higher level of generalization when dealing with sparsely rewarded environments.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

AI holds promise for transforming scientific processes, including hypothesis generation. Prior work on hypothesis generation can be broadly categorized into theory-driven and data-driven approaches. While both have proven effective in generating novel and plausible hypotheses, it remains an open question whether they can complement each other. To address this, we develop the first method that combines literature-based insights with data to perform LLM-powered hypothesis generation. We apply our method on five different datasets and demonstrate that integrating literature and data outperforms other baselines (8.97\% over few-shot, 15.75\% over literature-based alone, and 3.37\% over data-driven alone). Additionally, we conduct the first human evaluation to assess the utility of LLM-generated hypotheses in assisting human decision-making on two challenging tasks: deception detection and AI generated content detection. Our results show that human accuracy improves significantly by 7.44\% and 14.19\% on these tasks, respectively. These findings suggest that integrating literature-based and data-driven approaches provides a comprehensive and nuanced framework for hypothesis generation and could open new avenues for scientific inquiry.

This paper explores the intersection of identity, individuality, and reality through competing frameworks, including classical metaphysics, quantum mechanics, and computational theories. Traditional metaphysical notions of fixed identity are challenged by advancements in cloning, teletransportation, and digital replication, which reveal the fluid and relational nature of individuality. Quantum mechanics further complicates these notions, emphasizing the indistinguishability and contextuality of fundamental particles. Computational approaches, such as the Ruliad and Constructor Theory, offer expansive views of emergent realities but often lack practical constraints for observer relevance. Algorithmic idealism is introduced as a unifying framework, proposing that reality is an emergent construct governed by computational rules prioritizing coherence, sufficiency, and observer-dependent experiences. By redefining identity as an informational construct and reality as a process shaped by algorithmic transitions, algorithmic idealism resolves foundational paradoxes and offers a superior lens for understanding existence in an increasingly digital and interconnected world. The framework bridges gaps between competing theories, providing a coherent and pragmatic model for addressing ethical, metaphysical, and technological challenges.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

In their recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, "Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models," (Webb, Holyoak, and Lu, 2023) the authors argue that "large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems." In this response, we provide counterexamples of the letter string analogies. In our tests, GPT-3 fails to solve even the easiest variants of the problems presented in the original paper. Zero-shot reasoning is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. We do not see that evidence in our experiments. To strengthen claims of humanlike reasoning such as zero-shot reasoning, it is important that the field develop approaches that rule out data memorization.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

As Large Language Models become more ubiquitous across domains, it becomes important to examine their inherent limitations critically. This work argues that hallucinations in language models are not just occasional errors but an inevitable feature of these systems. We demonstrate that hallucinations stem from the fundamental mathematical and logical structure of LLMs. It is, therefore, impossible to eliminate them through architectural improvements, dataset enhancements, or fact-checking mechanisms. Our analysis draws on computational theory and Godel's First Incompleteness Theorem, which references the undecidability of problems like the Halting, Emptiness, and Acceptance Problems. We demonstrate that every stage of the LLM process-from training data compilation to fact retrieval, intent classification, and text generation-will have a non-zero probability of producing hallucinations. This work introduces the concept of Structural Hallucination as an intrinsic nature of these systems. By establishing the mathematical certainty of hallucinations, we challenge the prevailing notion that they can be fully mitigated.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.